RECOUNT - CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS READY NOW!Hi All,
Last week, I posted a EUR correction that I thought has started but sure enough, market always seems to push up more than anticipated. However I still firmly believe the count is still very valid as we have been extremely bullish since the 10th of April since we hit a price of 1.15690 and a retracement is due so I am on the hunt to re-enter a big short that is likely to provide about 500+ pips.
Wave count updated:
Just to be pedantic, I went into all sub-waves and cross checked out all fibs and extensions and all signs are pointing for a USD short for the coming weeks - please see the summary below.
Wave 1: Standard 5 wave impulse
Wave 2: ZZ correction which retraced 61.8% of wave 1
Wave 3: This impulse extended 423% of wave 1 which is a massive extension - sub wave impulse of 3 are also marked out with fibs met.
Wave 4: Flat correction which retraced 23.8% - (EW rule of alternation sufficed)
Wave 5: Final 5 impulse completed at the announcement of NFP last week.
A few points to note to mark the completion of this impulse as follows;
1. Bear Divergence seen in all timeframes from 1D down to 1min - A short/retracement is due.
2. Wave 1 vs Wave 5 - Wave 5 extended 1.618% of Wave 1 which 5th waves tend to extend to.
3. GAP is yet to close which serves as a major support, and is bang on 78.6% retracement level where I am expecting the ABC to terminate.
Feel free to ask any questions/comment if anything is unclear.
Exciting times ahead all and I can't wait to see what the following week(s) brings...
Cheers,
Don
Bearish-divergence
Bank Of America Heading Down To Test SupportOn April 6, 2017, the Bank of America Corporation ( NYSE:BAC ) 20 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 50 day MA. Historically this has occurred 83 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 2.296% and a maximum loss of 15.389% over the next 7 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.4748. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slowly trending down, but not clear if a volatile price swing is on the horizon.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.0671. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1688. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is steadily moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 61.4618 and D value is 58.2159. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up, but the divergence between the K and D is quickly shrinking and could also head down in line with all of the other technical indicators.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 4% over the next 7 trading days. There are many trendlines in play, but it is inconclusive which one will take hold next. Previous resistance around 22.20 has recently become new support and could be a viable level to be revisited.
GBPAUD ShortLovely retrace on the daily to the golden Fibonacci level of 618. Complete rejection, in addition to rejecting a key support/resistance line at the level of ~1.64.
1. Rejection of 0.618 Fib level on the daily retracement
2. Rejection of ~1.64 level
3. Massive RSI divergence across all time frames (4h and below)
4. 4H RSI is extremely high (~80). Only happens a few times/year. Typically leads to a massive drop.
No target set yet, but according to Fib extensions, 1.58 looks doable, especially with Brexit talks next week.
FX_IDC:GBPAUD
FX:GBPAUD
OANDA:GBPAUD
EURUSD 60minMy Friend
Gartley pattern has emerged on the FX:EURUSD on the 60min chart. Stick to your trading system and use this a to highlight your strengthens. Also; make sure you have proper stop loss or risk management system implementation in.
Remember friends no revenue leakage!
Cheers and Happy Trading
EDub
Peso and Dollar Tap DancePeso has been Trumped by "Build the Wall". Mexico has conceded to work with US on Border "issues". Mexico lost Ford mfg to US because of Trump agenda and probably will lose more. Mexico hopes to arrange decent trade to counter effect.
Mexico Central Bank sold off dollars to stymie skid .
Meanwhile, speculators know that the Peso is squat .
I think the Peso is squat. Technically, the Peso is squat. Technically, we are due for a retrace and the classic Triple Tap Price Action may conclude. I look for a potential reversal from it when RSI is Your Friend .
Note: I mostly go long and buy breakouts on this pair, because your True Best Friend Is The Trend (and the Peso is still squat).
Mexican peso (futures): Weak below 0.5370 - 0.5365Sell Peso below 0.5370 - 0.5365, targeting 0.5200.
Does this tell us something about the election outcome? Not sure, but the timing of the break of the support at 0.5370 - 0.5365 could be crucial.
Bearish divergence on FTSE100 after all time highAfter peaking to all an all time high it's either pull back or reversal time. Please see annotated chart.