New 3D Candle very important to watch Below 39 000 K Bear marcket starts
The causes of a bear market often vary, but in general, a weak or slowing or sluggish economy, bursting market bubbles, pandemics, wars, geopolitical crises, and drastic paradigm shifts in the economy such as shifting to online economy, are all factors that might cause a bear market. The signs of a weak or slowing economy are typically low employment, low disposable income, weak productivity, and a drop in business profits. In addition, any intervention by the government in the economy can also trigger a bear market.
Bearish-market
A thought experiment of how far we "Could" go down "if" we use the actual top as the point to count waves down in the RSI, we could see a much further drop than expected. It has happened before and the RSI patterns more closely resemble 2013's start of bear market.
2014's end of bear bottomed out at the peak of the large bear market rally ending in April 2013. This would put us at $17,000 best case scenario and $11,500 worst case scenario.
This would also mean a break down of giant key trendlines. We have since broken down from the trendline covering the 2015 bull run and we are sitting at the last one captured by the covid capitulation.
This is not to say we "Will" go down to these levels, but would it be a surprise if we did?
Bitcoin probably won't hold 200 WMA, tulip bubble to zero 2025Bitcoin will probably for the first time not hold its 200 WMA, thus changing the multi year bull trend. I expect even a drop to 10k. As usual we will have scam pumps by whales it will pump to possibly 30k dollar first, before crashing, so please fomo and let the whales dump on you! The market is NOT bullish, stocks have NOT bottomed out. Big warning!
Whales let retail fomo, this is why BTC go up. If retail is broke and lost faith in BTC, the whales lost. Which idiot would pump 100 million of dollars in highly speculative risky asset that isn't worth a dime. Simple, they can't manipulate stock markets so they come and manipulate BTC, you see green candle and fomo like a monkey, then they sell and make profit. Tell me who is in profit? Only those who bought pre 2017, those who bought in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 even unless in covid crash is in loss. Even they who hold maybe have a 2x. Don't tell me these retail who made a 2x will not take profit when they see BTC tumbling down, the whales will get karma back fired at them for pumping and dumping this ponzi scheme.
This is for entertainment purposes!
Yes I entered crypto with roughly 34500$ DCA'd between 2018 and 2019 with average BTC price of 7.2k, I sold at 9.1k in May 2020 before the pump to new heights.
I have around 4-5k left portfolio, let me tell you from experience, Bitcoin will crash to 10k and do unexpected things. It hit 3k TWICE while I held while everyone said we would never go below 10, never go below 6k. We went to 3k!
$SOFI let's make some more money 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Today my team entered digital finance company $SOFI at $6.70 per share. Our take profit has been set at $10.
Our current portfolio: $MIRM, $SOFI, $BABA, and $EQX
Our entry: $6.70
Take profit: $10
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🔥 Why Bitcoin Dominance Is Important: Deep Dive Analysis & MathIn today's analysis I want to dive deeper in why Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is important and why you should add this tool to your trading strategies. At the end I dive deeper into the mathematics behind BTC.D and how you can use it to calculate values of future alts. Give it a read!
What is it?
BTC.D is simply put the total market cap of BTC divided by the total market cap of crypto.
Bitcoin cap / (Bitcoin cap + Altcoin cap) = BTC.D%
In other words, for ever dollar market cap, how much of that dollar is invested in Bitcoin.
Why is it important?
The BTC.D is important because it tells investors which part of the market is stronger. In an uptrend, Bitcoin is stronger. In a downtrend, alts are stronger.
If you look back on the chart you can see that during the heights of the crypto bull-cycles in 2017 and 2021, the BTC.D was in a free-fall. Everyone was selling their Bitcoins and putting their gains into alts, leading to the classic alt-seasons.
On the other side, if BTC.D is on the rise it almost always indicates that the market is risk-averse and prefers the 'stability' of Bitcoin instead of alts. Still, we can divide a rising BTC.D in two categories.
1) Bitcoin is going on a solo rally and alts are left behind. See 2019 BTC rally for an example.
2) The market is selling off. Alts are always riskier that BTC, therefore traders convert their alts into Bitcoin in order to have a lower potential downside. An example is the current bear market. Bitcoin lost around 60% value since November-21, where most alts have lost between 90% to 95% of their values.
In my view, we're just at the start of the BTC.D "bull-run". I think we're going to see a move towards 55%-60%, which corresponds with the top dotted resistance line.
Why your alts are dumping harder than Bitcoin.
With the knowledge that we just gained we're going to make some easy step-by-step calculations. Numbers are rounded for better readability and understanding.
What we need:
- Total market cap: 1,300,000,000,000 (1,3T)
- Bitcoin Dominance: 46,75%
- Total amount of BTC in circulation: 19 million (19M)
Knowing this we can calculate the $-value of 1 BTC.
(1,3T x 46,75%) / 19M = ~32,000 per BTC, which is around the current price.
Now we're going to make some assumptions on future prices to see how much your alts can bleed during bear-markets. The values below are just for informational purposes, so bear with me.
BTC now: $32,000
BTC +1 year: $35,000
BTC.D now: 46,75%
BTC.D +1 year: 60%
BTC supply now: 19 million
BTC supply +1 year: 19.3 million (+900 BTC are mined per day)
Knowing the above, we can calculate the total market cap of alts now and +1 year in the future.
Total altcoin market cap now: 1,3T x (100%-46,75%) = 692,25B
+1 year in the future:
- BTC market cap: 35,000 x 19,3M = 675,5B
- Total crypto market cap: 675,5B / 60% = 1,126T
Total altcoin market cap: 1,126T - 675,5B = ~450B
Assuming the above, we can see that the total market cap in altcoins has decreased by around 35%, even when Bitcoin has seen an almost 10% increase during the same time period. In other words: your alts lost 35% value in a year, while BTC gained almost 10%. Be aware that the -35% is an average over all alts; some will perform better and others worse
This all has to do with Bitcoin Dominance rising and investors reducing their risk.
Thanks for reading!
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE SP 500 THE YEAR OF THE BEARThe chart posted is the best wave structure to stay with .I feel based on the fib and spirals cycle that I have been posting . and the fact we peaked into 2.618 at 4711 /4718 target that the only aly was a cluster at 4917 plus or minus 2 . . But with us breaking down in IWM and NYA . I feel that the cycles would be hard down into jan 6/20 focus date jan 10 plus or minus 1 day . and I feel that would only be WAVE A within my 4 10 and 20 year cycles which are down to oct 10 but I DID POST WE WILL HAVE A MAJOR LOW IN MAY NEAR THE 10 TH I stand by that for now . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
🔥 Bitcoin's Capitulation Expected: Bear-Market Low TargetA couple of days ago I made an analysis about my expectation on Bitcoin's reaction to the most recent FOMC interest rates decision. See my elaborate post below.
Whilst the initial reaction was bullish, we sold off very hard the day after (yesterday) the FOMC meeting. Whilst a lot of technical and fundamental indicators pointed bullish, we did not get what a lot of investors expected.
Lesson learned: when everyone is watching a certain area to hold, it will likely not hold. Same happened when BTC was trading at $40k in January.
In my most recent bullish analyses I noted that I expected a short-term bullish move, but was bearish in the long-term. The fact that we're likely to see a bearish break-out of my Bitcoin Pitchfork (see below) just moved my long-term bearishness a month forward.
If stocks continue their sell-off in the coming weeks, I'm expecting a bearish break out of the bullish channel / pitchfork pattern that BTC was trading in. If we lose this support, I think a capitulation event will likely follow. In
my opinion, if the current support (yellow circle) will hold it will only push the bearish break out back by a few days/weeks.
My bearish capitulation target area is the area between the Summer-21 low and $20k, see the green square. Note that the 200-week SMA will trade between 23k-26k by the time we arrive there. During ALL last cycles, the 200-week SMA has been touched at the lows at the bear market. This area marked the bottom of the bear market and the path from there as only been UP.
Share your thought below!
LOOK FOR BREAKS OR CONFIRMATIONS ON BTC - BEAR MARKET AHEADBTC is heavily collerated with the DJI and the S&P 500, which are both making lower lows right now. I expect the markets to have one last leg up before a major pullback / drop / bear market. This aligns with concerns and evolving uncertainty across all markets, both the US and outside.
In the short term, I expect a bounce to around 41 500 where we could find support, then start rising higher. I don't buy the sentiment cycle I see other traders talk about, to me the trend looks bearish across all tables. We could potentially see a nice exit pump to my upper red trend line. On the 1D we are sold out so this could be the case, let's see.
What's certain is that we are in a so called "danger zone" where we have to decide which way to go. Since this is my first published idea, I'm excited to see how it plays out. Look for confirmations on the white and red trend lines since they are heavy support and resistance zones. Place stop losses after breakouts above trend lines, it can just be a fake out to collect liquidations. I'll exit all long positions after rejection on the red lines and wait for any confirmation, upside or downside. In the long run it's possible we get unlinked from the rest of the markets and start rising amidst the upcoming global recession.
Short term - BULLISH. When markets drop - BUY.
I marked two possible trend directions, take care and trade with caution. God bless.
Bitcoin Explosive Breakout Target#Bitcoin appearing to be gearing up for an for explosive breakout breaking out of a MASSIVE rising wedge patern favoring price targets nearing 1.618 fininachi extension putting the BTC Price at around 90k to complete wave 5. Won't be long until we have an ABC correction before we start attacking the 100k & 200k BTC levels.
These things take time but I do beleive with so much adoption and with regularoty clarity BTC and other charts like XRP, XLM that have not hit their 4.326 Fib targets they too should go on to set new all time highs. Don't sleep on these dips.
It's hard not to be bullish when it's written in the charts.
$TQQQ Chart ahead of #FOMC March Meeting (March Prediction)I think fed will surprise the markets with a 0.50 rate hike at the March 15-16 meeting. I think the rate hike + a spike in bond yields will decimate the market. In panic many retail traders will get washed out and sit on the sidelines. In response, funds & whales will prop up the market on low volume to then decimate the market with shorts. They will rinse and repeat all the way down IMO
2 year prediction of total2, by Dia. big dump incoming.Seems like in a week or so we get the big answer. Market looks extremely bearish , I personally dont believe we can break the resistance
Pattern looks incredibly bearish.
We always dump before halving
the cup is drawn too big, it should not break the previous support of 462b
btc 19k bottom, maybe scam wick to 13k
expect 2020 highs of every altcoins, and some altcoins to completely be destroyed
Bitcoin About to CRASH! This happened THREE times in 10 Years!Hi All,
Hit the Like and Follow button before we get started!
One of the biggest signal that Bitcoin is going to crash soon just flashed again! This happened THREE times in the past 10 years and yesterday it did it for the FOURTH time! (see the green arrows on chart).
1. The first time it happened on September 2014, it crashed 60% from $400 to $150
2. The second time it happened on August - November 2018, it crashed 50% from $6,400 to $3,200
3. The third time happened on March 2020 (aka COVID Crash), it crashed 40% from $6,400 to $3,800
4. The fourth time is happening now on January 2022, currently at $35,000 and it could potentially crash 40-60% to $21,000 through 14,000
Each time this happened, we reached the final bottom and full capitulation.
Place buy/long orders at $21,000-17,000 and $14,000-9,000 and wait!
Thank me later.
Note: It could take days or few weeks or couple of Months before the crash happens.
Happy trading!
Carl M.
Check out my previous analysis
BTC MUST GO DOWN BEFORE THE BIG MOVE UP!!! Fib retracement of 0.5 looks like it’s failing to reach above so I’ve taken a short position for the moment targeting lower Fibonacci levels. Could change by tomorrow. Volatile the market be. Let me know what you think in the comments!!!
*Buy Dips and Eat Chips