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Bearish-market

S&P to Test 200MA?It seems that the S&P is poised to endure a correction at least. The MACD has crossed into bear market territory where we may retest the projected 200MA. We can see 4000 of the S&P, possibly lower. I like how one Josh Brown of Ritholtz said earlier on CNBC that once Nasdaq breaks 200MA, it will be puking because small caps will panic sell along mega-cap companies. Lets break down what is happening: Equities Since 2008, the Fed has done something it really hasn't even done before which was inject liquidity into the markets through moves like purchasing corporate bonds. The issue is that the market moved away from P/E into QE gains, meaning instead of investing in a company that is doing well with great revenue and strong earnings, the investors essentially rode the wave up. Add to this that the Fed slashed rates to 0.45% for an extended period of time which has never happened before. The only time the FFR was close was 1958 with 0.68% for a matter of weeks. We've had 0.45% since 2008 essentially. This cheap money has spread around the world and unlike 2008 where the inflation rate remained 2-3%, now its over 10% (when using 1980 CPI method). The Fed is now in a very tight place right now because it HAS to increase rates to fight inflation that is spiraling out of control but it can't raise them too high because it will induce recession as it always has. The issue is the Fed can't raise them by a measly .25 basis points either to fight off 7% inflation either. So what is the result? Pain in the stock market. The market will have to shift back to investing in companies based on P/E. Today, most companies are trading at 5-20 times earnings. This is absolutely insane and this will mostly be corrected this year. Just look at the growth from March 2020 and ask yourself if this growth was organic. It's pretty simple that this was direct intervention by the Fed. It's over now. The Fed can not reverse course because inflation is spiraling out of control and blaming low supply won't suffice. The core to inflation is rapidly expanding money supply, not product supply/demand. I think the market is going to fall and return to a means of actual growth investing, not speculation. Raising interest rates will hurt emerging markets as well. Crypto So, where do crypto currencies stand from all of this? It's a hard one to tell but, I believe that Bitcoin and crypto will do as it always has since being listed. It will follow the stock market. Look at equities on March 2020 and look at Bitcoin March 2020. Bitcoin was halved by 50%. My advice is do not look for stability in a bear market in crypto unless investors take their money from equities and invest it in crypto but in a bear market this is unlikely has people will flee to safeties like treasuries or more likely keeping cash while waiting for a bottom. Again, look at the days equities had significant selling or gains, and look how Bitcoin follows the market. Personal thought My hope is that the Fed doesn't reverse course and increase QE because this bubble will get exponentially larger. Last time the Fed rose rates during Trump's term, there was pain in emerging markets and even in the US the markets reacted negatively. I think this time around the Fed has its hands tied and must raise rates to combat inflation.
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
Tesla Major Bubble?Tesla has absolutely exploded in value especially since March 2020, which we believe was the beginning of a massive equity bubble. Tesla began trading around $40-80 range for over 6-years. The vehicles they produce now, they produced in 2017. The Tesla Battery and Tesla Solar Roof were all known back then as they are now. Tesla has not announced anything that should put their stock price at over $900. We know why the stock rallied to $1200, and that was solely the Fed. Perhaps most shocking is Tesla's P/E ratio which is now over 100X their earnings. This is extreme, and it screams asset bubble. Not even Toyota which is the worlds largest car manufacturer which produces both electric and gasoline vehicles has a P/E of less than 10. So where do we stand? We see equities going into a bear market. The FOMC of 1-26-2022 confirmed this when the Fed announced they are continuing their plans for tapering, raising rates, and shrinking their balance sheet. This will adversely affect the stock market and bring equities below a 15% correction, into a bear market. Key Factors Buying Volume Weak MACD Turning Bearish P/E Ratio: Extremely Overvalued. Fed Tapering, Raising Rates, and Shrinking Balance Sheet. 50MA is 1/3rd Current Value 100MA is $180 Range With the biggest buying of equities calling it quits and essentially "selling" this is a stock that I would get out of the way, short but do not expect a continued rally.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by WorldEconomics
6
Tricktrap and Fool company, We are Huntin Ducks now Babies. TraderMan PennyPorkChop looks out for opportunity to survey and examine the latest value activity in the market in a way that makes it helpful to you. Utilizing Technical Analysis, I play out an insiders view of the activity in the financial exchanges today and gives you my Day Trading of 6 years of Trading Volatile current market , examining market patterns , and interpreting of where the market is going. TraderMan PennyPorkChop Focus incorporates - Specialized Analysis - Exchange and market Education - Pattern and Pattern Analysis - Market Psychology - and Trading Mental Health. SPY STOCK: THIS IS A SPY STOCK PRICE PREDICTION, SPY STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS, AND A SPY STOCK PRICE FORECAST VIDEO. . My Ideal Views are looking for new ways to think about Trading. . No BS Technical Analysis that works, period. . Day Trading and Swing Trading. . New Traders Welcome. .Swing Traders Welcome. . You get Daily SPY STOCK pre and Post Market and the Price Spy ETF price predictions Weekend editions. . TESLA stock along with TESLA share Price including Testla After Hours. DISCLAIMER: No financial advice, the information on this channel is provided for education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this channel is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The information on this channel and provided from or through this channel is general in nature and is not specific to you the User or anyone else. You should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise, based on any of the information presented on this channel without undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a professional broker or financial advisory.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PorkChopPenny
1
Do not fight the Fed Market is setting up to crashThere a millions of market viewpoints. The nice thing about tradingview is that for the most part the viewpoints are technical in nature. Put simply the technical viewpoint I want to show in the chart here is that the nasdaq composite is under heavy selling pressure. We had a rebound today January 10th, 2022, but it was nothing more than an intraday rebound. The weight of the evidence still points to down market and accelerating down. The narrative too often even from technicians is that the market will bounce, is due for a bounce, will bounce make a new high first, finds support etc etc. Well guess what, sometimes the market does not bounce that much or even find much support. Sometimes it falls really hard and *drops like a ROCK*. Sometimes it just goes down and *stays down*. Sometimes it will go down 5 limit down days in a row without barely a bid. So the chart pretty much says it all. If we view the peak in the Nas composite as November 22, 2021 then we count the number of days until we reach last support and then peak selling climax. The current nasdaq time frame is *barely* holding onto support. Today's one day reversal candle was not a victory, just an intermission. The key aspect of the overall chart is the *Final Rally* that occurred in December 20th, 2021 to December 28th 2021. That rally was a suckers rally and was orchestrated so that the big money can sell and sell really hard. That same final suckers rally also occurred in 1987. It gave the appearance to most market participants that the market was setting up for another new high, new bull trend, new rally and all is well. And yet those dreams were dashed, and then came the rapid bearish engulfing with a speed and force that most are not prepared for. The SPEED of the price action down is what causes most people to not be able to react quickly enough and get out in one piece. I certainly do not wish a decline as severe as 1987 but we just have to look at the technical price structure and make an honest assessment and take it from there....
TVC:IXICShort
by TomNewYork
5
SPX head & shoulders; broke EMAs; broke 3 resistance; Bear start> Created a clear head and shoulders > Broke 200 ema > Broke several resistance points > RSI lingers in undersold territory for 4 days now, no indication of bouncing back to 'normal range' > VIX progressively hitting higher highs since September > General market sentiment very low with pending rate rising, alongside a year of less $ stimulus, recognition of overvalued stocks, and eventual correction from "kicking the can down the road" in the greatest bull market ever If we break the head and shoulder resistance, then we can expect a bit of upward trend- but nothing close to ATH imho. If we bounce from that resistance line, then a clear bear market has started.
SP:SPXShort
by ChemRatic
Possible SPY Outcomes - Jan/Feb 2022To create these prices and their respective labels, the following indicators were used: Volume Price Profile Fibonacci Retracement Consolidation Channels Potential MACD lengths Outcome #1 in RED, Outcome #2 in YELLOW Overall, I have the sentiment that it will continue lower, at some point. There are an infinite number of factors that could affect when, and how fast it does fall (-10% next week, -30% over next two months etc.) This is just to help map my personal game plan. #1: Bull Market Reversal Price: This is the price I have decided that I personally will use as an indicator that a correction is over, and there should not be any huge crash in the near future (excluding news, events). Approaching this point, I would chart something that is more bullish to prepare for that. #2: Support Ranges: Of course as SPY dumps (if it does) it will not be a linear path. There will be locations in every price where there is some support met. The ranges marked are locations where the support may be its strongest, and likely good areas to exit short positions. #3: Gap to Fill: There was a 7% increase in 2.5 weeks in this area, with 2% of this happening over the weekend. Other traders/ investors could expect this gap to be filled before any major consolidation or reversal. Just something to keep in mind. #4: The red line is where most volume by price is since Nov. 2020. If it goes this low, I'd expect some good support in this area because of it, and the simple fact that it is 400 (a big psychological support.) Some other possible outcomes are: consolidation from SPY Support #1 and Spy Resistance #1 for as long as needed, tech earnings are crazy good and the market goes full blown bullish, or very long term consolidation in a much larger range until their is confidence in the market again or it loses steam.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
6
What would happen if Bitcoin extends into a Longer Bear MarketHi everyone! Please hit the like bottom at the bottom right corner and the follow button for more charts and updates. Should Bitcoin close a Weekly candle at or below 40K then it would extend the current short-term Bear Market into a longer one which would bottom on February 21 at the amazing buy/long level of 21-17K. The major reasons for this setup to play out following a Weekly close below 40K are: 1. The expectation that the US Dollar will keep surging in the coming months, which in return will temporarily keep putting sell pressure on the commodity market as well as Bitcoin, Crypto and Gold. 2. The aggregated funding rates on Bitcoin across all the exchanges remain positive which means we are not yet near a bottom (no safety net) 3. Bitcoin is trading below the 21W EMA or 1W Bollinger Midband now at $53.2K since early December 2021 which historically means that Bitcoin is in a longer Bear Market. 4. We have broken below the long-term Weekly parabola and also bull log parallel channel 5. The majority of traders across almost all exchanges like Bitfinex and Binance are all long while shorts are low, couple that with point (2) we could see a liquidation cascade of all long positions across all exchanges should Bitcoin be pushed below 40K. Should this setup fail, then that would mean that Bitcoin broke up past the top of the falling wedge at $45.6K by next Friday and for that I have published the plan here: Best of luck and happy trading! Carl M.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinGuru
1
Bitcoin Potential Falling Wedge Bull Reversal SetupHi All, Here is my backup bull plan in case my theory that we will see Bitcoin test 34-32Ks and eventually 21-17K by February 2022: If the bulls are successful at defending the 41-39.6K support successfully into next wee, look to buy the back test of the falling wedge's resistance as support at $45.6-44.2K should we confirm the break out by January 17-22. Note that if you are buying at $41-39.6K that we may see a wick down to $37-36Ks to run all the stops but as long as it quickly recuperates above 40K and closes the Weekly candle at or above that level then the bulls keep the control and may resume the Megabull or attempt to into 2022! Thanks, Carl M.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BitcoinGuru
Overview of the Ethereum Bear MarketHi everyone! Please hit the like bottom at the bottom right corner and hit the follow button for more charts and updates. Here is my updated overview of the Weekly Ethereum ETHUSD Bear and Bull Cycles on the log scale. It seems at least for now the Megabull trend expired for Ethereum as expected around December 2021 with a top at $4,800-4,900. Now a Bear Market is potentially starting but confirmation is needed with Sunday January 2nd's candle closing below the $3,860 1W Bollinger Midband. There are major signals that cannot be ignored anymore on Ethereum at this point pointing to the Bear Market starting: - Broke below the 1W Bollinger Midband at $3,860 - Broke its long-term log bull parallel channel similar to 2018 - 1W Momentum indicator flashing a sell signal similar to 2018 - An unconfirmed double top bear reversal at $4,400-4,900 I have also overlapped the 2018-2019's Bear Market's fractal to offer a quick comparison against the current price action. The last time we broke the 1W midband the the log parallel channel we dropped roughly 50%. Should we confirm this full-blown bear market, then look for a final bottom near $780-680 by October 2022 through January 2023 with a $150-100 margin of error. Please note that the entire setup can be VOIDed if Ethereum regains and closes a Weekly above $4,250 Best of luck and happy trading! Carl M.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by BitcoinGuru
4
2022 THE YEAR OF THE BEAR 20 % PLUS CORRECTION MAY 10/22 This is my view of 2022 . A final low is due the week of oct 10 to the 20th . Based on the 20yr 10yr 4 yr and the 2 yr cycles down hard . We need to look at the worlds other markets to see they have been in every clear BEAR MARKETS . AND THAT THE SRENGTH IN THE US $ has been a safe haven for the world . The FED is coming to the END OF THIS INFLATIONARY CYCLE IN ASSETS . I now maintain the 2022 is the year deflationary cycle with appear . Based on money lack velocity and social unrest . We now have over 22 mil new retiring over the last year . 2022 is the year of VIX . HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPYShort
by wavetimer
5
BTC Short Limit - Alt Season coming?Hello everyone, I am posting this analysis to announce that I believe that BTC bear market confirmation will occur when BTCUSD rises to around $61,000. I believe ALT coins will rise drastically once BTC begins to rise and reaches this level and I plan to short BTC when this occurs. Once BTC reaches this level I believe the entire market will fall with BTC and plan to DCA my favorite alt coins around this time next year. Good luck. Happy Holidays!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Borastreams
3
What is your opinion of the current and upcoming trend for BTC?Here you can see I am a slow and patient bear who ate his oatmeal and slept away Q4 & Q1 For all the stores were bear as well, So I bought moar oatmeal. DXY looks like oatmeal Not that I know anything ser's........ I like oatmeal Me can only buy me oatmeal with DXY Not really feeling like explaining this........I'm sure me shall be shamed for loving me oatmeal moar than me bloatmeal. BTC Earth Or Moon? Leave a Comment Below
BNC:BLXShort
by ILL_Midas
1
bearish outlook for the USD/JPYwith the RSI indicating the usd/jpy being over bought (over 70%) on the 4 hour time frame and price coming to the strong resistance zone of 110.800 - 110.740 we are getting a bearish bias. if market structure holds im having a bearish outlook for this pair. however we need to keep in mind the 14:30 news for the usd, if the news comes out as good for the dollar US I'm expecting a break above the strong resistance zone zone of 110.800 - 110.740 FX:USDJPY
Short
by LUNGU_FX
Bearish market comesIn recent days, positive dollar news was released by the Federal Reserve, which was a positive signal for the growth of the dollar. Over the past week, the EUR / USD chart has tried several times to break the 1.175 price ceiling, but failed. This chart is in a downtrend. However, if it can break the 1.175 ceiling, it can be said that the market is bullish. At the beginning of the week, the price chart is expected to reach 1.173 and then the market will fall. Germany's manufacturing PMI was lower than last week's market forecast. Other euro figures were weaker against the dollar. In this analysis, two areas for entry are highlighted in blue. Losses are marked in red and profit areas are marked in green. This is just an analysis. Not a financial recommendation
Short
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
2