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Bearish Patterns

CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory. When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced. Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBShort
by ew-forecast
02/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,481.00 Last weeks low: $57,205.43 Midpoint: $60,843.22 As September begins BTC finds itself at the $58,000 mark after selling off for the entire week last week. A historically bad Month for the crypto market is being paired with the first FED rate cut since March 2022. Conflicting elements with one bearish and one potentially bullish, it will be interesting to see if the final month of Q3 is a slow one or whether this is the month where BTC can break its daily downtrend and continue the Bullrun. I believe the 25bps vs 50bps rate cut is a huge point of contention, this week we have data releases for unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims that could all give clues to the FEDs decision on the 18th September. BTC finds itself below the 1D & 4H 200EMAs once again after falling short of the $65,ooo breakout. It seems there isn't really any rush to buy before we know of the FEDs decision, chopping and generally delivering max pain to the majority, unless you can be nimble on the LTFs nobody is winning here. This week the wait continues, we saw a glimpse of hope in the altcoin market recently but that has now been taken away again as BTC struggled. Finding those fundamentally sound projects ready for Q4 and beyond is still a top priority.
by ProR35
BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the $28k–$32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern. A price target of $90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario. Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context. Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the $30k region could be highly bullish: 1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to $90k from $32k. 2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the GETTEX:29K –$30k range when BTC reaches that level. 3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at $27.7k, with the golden zone around $36.5k. 4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal. 5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately $37k. 6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run. In summary, a dip to around $28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above $30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto. Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal. I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Achilly
$DJI <> Rate CutsRetail investors often mistakenly believe rate cuts are bullish and will profit, but history suggests otherwise. In the last two decades, we have witnessed three major rate-cutting events that occurred a few months before market peaks, each followed by 40%+ corrections. We have observed similar patterns with retail investors becoming bullish as rate cuts are announced. Markets typically become euphoric for a few months, with retail investors buying at the top, only to experience major drops shortly after.
DJ:DJIShort
by Flow-Trading
TOTAL2 - Altcoin marketcap is reversing#TOTAL2 #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- The altcoin market cap experienced a significant drop from $1.2 trillion to $845 billion, and the current chart indicates that it is hovering around the support zone. This drop was anticipated following a substantial increase from $500 billion to $1.2 trillion, representing a more than 100% surge in the overall altcoin market cap. It is expected that the overall altcoin market cap will rebound from this support zone, with the next target being $1.7 trillion. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by VectorAlgo
3
GBPUSD Is Going Down! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.312. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.301 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDNOK Is Still Eyeing June LowsUSDNOK is sideways for the last two years that looks like a triangle within uptrend. It's an ABCDE pattern where wave E can be in play, ideally still to the lower side of a range for subwave (C) after the recent subwave (B) rally. Notice that we see price turning sharply and impulsively from the upper triangle resistance line as expected, so wave (C) is in full progress which can push the price down to 10.30 - 10.00 support zone before we will see stabilization and recovery. USDNOK is not at the June lows yet, so we believe it's still in wave 4 correction before a continuation lower for wave 5 towards 10.30 – 10.00 zone. Ideal resistance is at 10.60 – 10.70 area.
Short
by ew-forecast
3