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Bearish Patterns

07/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $65,605.03 Last weeks low: $59,829.32 Midpoint: $62,717.17 After geo-political escalations causing panic in the markets at the beginning of last week, BTC has been spending the second half of the week trying to recover losses. The 1D 200EMA came in as support midweek to cap the sell-off, a steady climb back up flipping the 4H 200EMA back to bullish and finally the week low reclaim in the dying hours of the week. This to me is very positive, showing strength in times of major uncertainty. Another outside force Bitcoin will encounter is the US presidential election, that is now less than one month away and definitely will sway traditional markets and crypto alike. This week we have some key data events: Wednesday - FOMC minutes As the unemployment data came in better than forecast, this could be a sign of further rate cuts to come in November, we may get some clues on this in the report. Thursday - CPI (YoY) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.3% Actual:??? With CPI forecast to drop closer to the FEDs 2.0% target, anything lower than 2.3% would be positive for markets, 2,3% is probably priced in and anything above would be negative for markets. Friday - PPI (MoM) Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.1% Actual:??? Similar story in PPI as CPI, forecasts are for another drop and markets could react similarly to what's stated above. Data events can be a non-event but now that the rate cut cycle has begun and the US election is on the way these events are more important than ever.
by ProR35
Microsoft (MSFT): Decision Point – Will It Hold or Drop?Since our last analysis on Microsoft, not much has changed in terms of price action, as it rose to $469 before getting stuck again at $416. However, there is one major development – Microsoft has formed a new trend channel. We have marked this crucial channel in red and labeled it "Must hold for more upside," emphasizing its importance. A major decision is approaching for $MSFT. Either Microsoft holds this channel, leading to a surge higher, or it loses this level, which would confirm the bearish head and shoulder pattern. We've maintained a bearish outlook on Microsoft since January 2024, and recent developments seem to support our analysis. For now, we're patiently waiting and letting the market decide. If Microsoft loses the channel, we could find initial support for wave (A) around $316-306. However, a better buying opportunity for wave II may present itself closer to $220 – though reaching this level will take some time. 🫡
NASDAQ:MSFT
by freeguy_by_wmc
BTC reversal soon??Divergences between price and RSI can often show that a trend is coming to an end and a new one is beginning. In this case we can see that RSI on the 4H timeframe hit the oversold zone, and has been steadily climbing out of it ever since. However, we can see that price has continued making lower lows and lower highs... The price and the oscillator are out of phase and in this case as RSI grows larger but price continues to drop it's a bullish divergence signal and this suggests a trend shift from bearish to bullish. Divergences are not perfect, no indicator is but this can be paired up with other signals for confluence, RSI being at the oversold zone is a good indicator that the bulk of the move is done, especially now that RSI has climbed out of it. The green box is showing a bullish orderblock, all 3 wicks have bounced off this zone and therefor suggests support also. My feeling is that geopolitical worries have shaken the traditional markets and that uncertainty has spilt over into crypto, fundamental influences will effect the charts no matter how good the technical analysis may be. If we weather this storm and the situation doesn't escalate the TA suggests the worst has been and gone.
by ProR35