EUR/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
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EUR-JPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 162.425 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the EUR/JPY pair.
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Bearish Patterns
GBP/JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
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We are going short on the GBP/JPY with the target of 191.668 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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BITCOIN BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
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BITCOIN pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently rising on the 4H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 64,956 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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GBP/CHF BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
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GBP/CHF pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.120 area.
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GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
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We are now examining the GOLD pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 2,673.970 level.
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EUR/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
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The BB upper band is nearby so EUR-CHF is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 0.936.
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EURUSD Stays In Downtrend After ECB Cut RatesThe Euro is weak across the board after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as expected. More importantly, Christine Lagarde noted that data suggests the economy in the Eurozone is weakening, which means there could be more rate cuts on the table in the future. However, this will depend on upcoming data, as noted by the ECB President. Looking at the wave counts, we are definitely seeing a bearish impulse. The only question is whether we will still see a fourth wave rally, or if higher ABC recovery will show up. In either case, there should be more weakness after the next bounce, which I will track closely for potential shorts. Strong resistance is definitely around 1.09 to 1.0950.
Grega
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term.
As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected.
While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change.
We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future.
Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
USD/CHF BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
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We are going short on the USD/CHF with the target of 0.854 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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GBP/CAD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
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GBP/CAD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 9H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.785 area.
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GOLD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,679.580.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,648.659.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
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The BB upper band is nearby so GOLD is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 2,533.648.
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USD/CAD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
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Previous week’s green candle means that for us the USD/CAD pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 1.356.
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USD/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
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USD/JPY pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 144.420 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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SILVER BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
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SILVER pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 5H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 30.015 area.
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EURAUD Short Bias – Bearish OB Rejection and Sell-Side EQLTargetEURAUD is currently in a clear downtrend. After sweeping sell-side liquidity at 1.60237, price retraced into a daily bearish order block (OB), which is a high-probability setup. The latest candle has closed within and below the OB, signaling further bearish momentum. Price is displaying a shift from External Range Liquidity (ERL) to Internal Range Liquidity (IRL), with sell-side liquidity and equal lows (EQL) at 1.59973 as the next target.
Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response.
The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.