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Bearishdivergence

Update on Bitcoin's Log Harmonic XABCD ButterflyBackground On May 1 Bitcoin had shot up to the 1.618 extension of XA and stalled there for a while and I posted my first log butterfly idea, which will be in the lined idea below. I was one of the first and few people warning that this price action was at a major target and we should be expecting a retrace. As part of my disaster scenario and personal development I checked the price action for harmonic patterns and I found that the fib levels matched a harmonic butterfly, but only on the log scale. Since then we can see strong profit taking above the 1.618 level with only a hint of a monthly candle body above the level. Now the price action stalling at $69,000 is mildly amusing, much like the SPX bottoming out in 2008 at $666, making you wonder just how juvenile the financial whales really are. Still, since there was a slightly higher high I have moved point D appropriately and therefor point E is a tad higher than in my original post. Technical Analysis As it seems we have a double top the log Harmonic Butterfly appears to remain valid. We remain part way through the month of December but I don't see much changing with the bearishness I see in the chart, or globally with the financial system. The image below shows your standard indicator set up for the MACD and RSI with some basic charting. I remember in 2018 we had a descending triangle and all the bulls saying we would get a cup and handle or a saucer formation. I was new to trading and got caught up in the hype myself. Those bullish formations? Didn't happen. Now we have an apparent double top at this major fib target. When we look for the indicators for some clarity we see a lot of bearishness to back up the bearish chart formation. I wrote down the full divergence primer just for the sake of being thorough, but we only really need the normal bearish divergence. Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher Highs on the price action but lower lows on a indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden Divergence (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action but a higher high on the indicator Bullish: Higher High on the price action but a lower high on the indicator The RSI and On Balance Volume both have normal divergence, with a higher high on the price action but a lower high on the indicator. With an asset like bitcoin which has been continually printing new coins for its whole existence the fact that we have lower OBV now is curious. The RSI divergence shown in purple from peak to peak suggest that we are more than likely going to see more downside leading to a MACD cross. I have been watching for that for a while. I remember when I was calling for a weekly MACD cross and people told me that wasn't going to happen. But guess what, it did. The OBV slipping the 10 is a very serious sign that buying has dropped off. It seems that we will have a very high chance the OBV will slip the 20 EMA as well. Historically when the OBV has been below the 20 on the mouthy it has been a great place to invest in crypto. Fundamental Analysis Two main driving assumptions behind this post is the idea that interest rates are going to go up at the same time DXY is going up as well. Why? The Federal Funds rate is in a massive long term falling wedge. If you don't view it on the monthly time frame or higher you can get some weird quirks in the data. What does this mean? It means that the rate that banks charge one another for overnight loans is going to go up. That means that broadly, all interest rates on dollar denominated debt is going to go up as well. Bitcoin by itself doesn't have any yield. It isn't going to be as relatively attractive in that environment as something giving you a coupon or a dividend or an interest payment. How the de-fi space will adapt to these increasing rates will be interesting. How people will assess risk with interest rates moving vis-a-vis bitcoin and crypto in general will also be very interesting. Likewise the Dollar is in a massive long term falling wedge. I found this wedge by putting the data on log scale, and now I see a few key analysis doing the same (after I twitted at them a couple of times). The Dollar is going to pump along with interest rates, the same way that can see happened in the late 70s and early 80s. I haven't shown it, but going into the peak of DXY and the Federal funds silver had just done a blow off top and entered a historic bear market. Equities were broadly flat until the Federal Funds rate began to decline and then things began to pump. Perhaps crypto is topping prior to the dxy and fed funds rate just like silver did. Another thing to watch is the velocity of money. The money supply is at an all time high and any small movements upward in the velocity of money is going to make anything you need very expensive, which probably isn't a good thing for intangible assets like crypto. A quick look at my alternative bearish scenario Quite Simply, the Monthly Keltner channel will provide support for monthly candle bodies it has done so far. The 200 week SMA has also done a very good job at providing support till now. Investing when the Stoch is so low has historically also been a great decision. If the monthly Keltner and 200w continue to hold then of course my idea is negated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
39
SPY Bearish Divergences w/ Potential Triple Top$SPY S&P500 ETF. SPY is currently hesitating near all-time highs which has led to a potential bearish triple top formation(upper red arrows) on the daily chart. As price has stayed relatively the same since early November, the lower indicators have all been declining(lower red arrows) which has created a bearish divergence. The lower indicators all show that the internals behind the recent rally in price from October to November have weakened, but have not flipped bearish yet. The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line. This indicates a short-term loss of upward momentum in price. This indicator isn’t considered bearish until both the green and purple lines are below the 0 level. What we would need to see going forward in order for price to continue moving higher is for the green line to cross back above the purple and for both to continue moving higher. The ADX indicator shows the green DI and purple DI lines overlapping which means that the short-term trend in price has flatlined. When the green line is above the purple line the short-term trend in price is up, and when the purple line is above the green line the short-term trend is down. The histogram behind the DI lines is declining which indicates weakening trend strength. What we want to see here is for the green DI line to cross back above the purple DI line, and then for the histogram to begin rising which would indicate a short-term bull trend with increasing strength. The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line rolling over after finding resistance at the horizontal 60 level and the middle of the RSI Bollinger Bands. The intermediate momentum behind price can be considered bullish based on the fact that the RSI is above the horizontal 50 level and so is the center of the BBands. When both are below the 50 level the short and intermediate momentum in price can be considered bearish. What we want to see in this indicator is for the green RSI line to cross above the center of the BBands and then rise above the 60 level to give us a strong indication that the short-term and intermediate-term momentum behind price is bullish. Worth noting is that as price rose this week, volume declined. This indicates that less traders were in the market moving price back up to test the all-time high near $470 after the previous double top. Should price continue to hesitate and rollover over from here, local lows can be looked at for potential levels of support. The two most recent local lows to watch are at $450 and $425, those were the last two levels of demand prior to new all-time highs being made. If the market is still mostly bullish, those two levels will hold, with $425 being the critical level. #sp500 #spy #spx #stocks #equities #trading #investing #chart #analysis #technical #indicators #candlestickchart #pricepercentoscillator #ppo #averagedirectionalindex #adx #tdi #tradersdynamicindex #rsi #relativestrengthindex #trend #momentum #tradingview #price #etf #divergence #bearish #bearishdivergence
AMEX:SPY
by PrepForProfit
#ALGO Algorand 1D - Bearish Divergence in sightI am looking at the 1D chart for Algorand. I show the top and bottom multi-year trendlines and it seems that we may have some downside to go possibly based on historical trends. I showed a possible fractal from the past that may play out again. Lastly and most important, on the daily chart there is bearish divergence. This may be a good indicator of what's to come in the future. What are your opinions on this? Comment below, hit the like and follow me. Thank you! Check out more below for recent Altcoin, Bitcoin and Stock Ideas. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
COINBASE:ALGOUSDShort
by MillionaireEconomics
4
Is “M” a Difficult Letter for Alphabet?Google renamed itself Alphabet in 2015. Now it may be struggling with the 13th letter in that famous text string. Notice how GOOGL nosed above $3,000 on November 5 and 8 but failed to hold. Almost exactly the same thing took place on November 18 and 19. Both attempts left behind solid candlesticks with long tails on top – yet not a single close above the psychologically important $3,000 level. Perhaps even more important, the price action generated an “M” double-top. That’s a potential reversal pattern. Next, MACD made a lower high last month while prices hit a slightly higher high: bearish divergence. Another thing to watch could be GOOGL’s rising trendline along the lows of March and October. The stock is parked right on that pattern and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Breaks of those lines could potentially drive some investors to the sidelines. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by TradeStation
2
The only divergences guide you needHello, everyone! There are a lot of traders and many of them use divergence in their own way. Most of these ways lead to the deposit losses in the long run, because generate the late entries. I like to trade with Alexander Elder’s approach to the divergence. It has the clear entry condition and the small stop-losses in case of mistake. Divergences allows to enter the market exactly before the actual trend reverse, thus you always buy the dip and sell the rip, which produces the best risk to reward ratio. Foe divergence defining we will use MACD indicator, but you can choose any oscillator with zero-lne. After reading this guide you will be able to define divergences on every appropriate oscillator. Let’s consider this approach! Bearish Divergence What is bearish divergence? For the true bearish divergence we should see four obligatory signs. (1) Point C on the price chart should be higher than point A. (2) Point C on the MACD is below than point A. (3) The MACD histogram have to cross the zero-line to the downside to form the point B (4) The MACD histogram have to cross the zero-lne to the upside after the (3). Now it’s time to find the entry point. Point C is formed when the decreasing column appeared on the MACD. (5) It is the time to execute short position . Stop loss we should take above the point’s C high. As you can see we have the very small stop loss with the huge profit potential. Next condition enhances the short signal: (6′) Decreasing MACD lines while the price increases. Bullish Divergence Bullish divergence is the opposite to the bearish. We have to see the following conditions. (1) Point C is below the point A on the price chart. (2) Point C is above the point A on the MACD histogram. (3) We have to see first MACD histogram crossover with zero-line to the upside to form the point B. (4) Than we have to see the opposite crossover to the downside. Now it’s time to wait the first increasing column on MACD histogram to spot the point C and (5) execute the long positions . Stop loss should be set below the point C low. We can often see the price decrease continuation to the point D, this point is (6) also forms divergence, which enhances long signal, like the (7) divergence with MACD lines. In this particular case the stop loss was not hit, but it could be the case. In this case we should re-enter position when the divergence conditions was met again. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
Education
by Skyrexio
2