SNOW - buy the disappointment discount sale LONGSNOW beat the earnings estimates by 150% and slightly exceeded revenue estimates. Price
dropped in printing a bear flag in a 22% move yesterday at the close. Buying from the bottom
has begun and I have the idea that I should join. My pre-earnings play was closed going into the
earnings in the high liquidity that proceeds it. I got my ask price on that position. The chart
shows today's buyng volume and volatility. On the slow resumption of bullish price action, I have
taken a long trade from the near bottom after this morning's reversal and call options
ITM for the July monthy.
Bearish Flag
Bearish flag pattern Price will potentially move towards taping into the 90% Rule area to retrace and move down towards taping into the previous weekly support area, which will form an area of equal daily lows. Price is potentially going to shoot up towards or close to target area, if not, price will move further down to the lowest weekly support area. Enter at 15min timeframe to maximise RR.
Paytm - Royal Trapping of Retailers (or) Real Bullish Reversal ?Paytm is Hot News for the past couple of weeks on all Social Media channels for obvious reasons. While RBI and Central Govt turned their back on Paytm, the once famed as Hero is now on the verge of becoming Zero.
Right from the IPO valuations, Paytm is not in good books of many investors and has been losing its value continuously from 2000 all the way down to 300 range now
While Many Retailers who are Trapped in there - looking up to the almighty for a saving hand, many feel the new about Axis bank taking up the role of Paytm Payments Bank is that Light at end of the Tunnel.
Do the Technicals support this view ? or is it one more ploy by the Biggies to Royally Trap the Already Beaten down Retail investors ? Let's review below
Technical Analysis:
Monthly Chart: Right from IPO the price fell, then moved upside inside a Parallel Channel forming a Bearish Flag pattern then Breakdown of Flag which is so bad
Weekly Chart: We published the Weekly Chart on Feb 14 - clearly calling Paytm to be a dangerous script to invest in right now. It Broke-down from the 2 Year Upward Parallel Channel and broke the Last 3 Rays of Hope (the 3 Support lines). It was a Classic case of Breakdown-Retest-Fall
Daily Chart: On the Daily chart - for the past 3 days, Paytm is hitting 5% UC, but where is it heading ? Heading right to the Previous Bounce Zone - 395.
Now Why is 395 so significant ? Its not just the Resistance Now - but rather on the Fibonacci Retracement scale - 395 is sitting right at 0.382 Retracement Level. Remember Fibonacci Retracement rule ?
If any stock happens to Retrace to any one of Fibonacci Levels and It also happens to be a Support / Resistance then it adds more power to the Support or Resistance. In this case, its a Resistance. If the Price gets rejected from 395, then again its the classic case of Breakdown-Retest-Fall
What is Safe Zone now ?
Anyone Already Holding Paytm - continue to Hold and wait for confirmation of Rejection / Breakout of Resistance at 395 zone
New Entries must strictly be avoided at this stage - No Bottom Fishing - else you wont survive to have your Sunday Fish Fry :)
The Bullish Confirmation starts only after successful and decisive Break-out of all 4 Resistances (395, 440, 480, 525). Until then - it is still Bearish
Play Safe..Advice Caution...No New Entries
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ROKU falls after an earnings beat dissapointmentROKU on the 30 minute chart had a sell-off after earnings which were okay not great. Traders
reacted. The question is whether it was an overreaction. I think it was. I am looking for a slow
recovery over a week or more to at least the standard retracement level which I will call 98 as
drawn by the tool. further upside targets are 101 and 104 based on VWAP bandlines.
Buying on the discount is sometimes an excellent tool to reduce risk and use the reversion to
the mean to best advantage and seize an overreaction in the market.
TSLA Reports and goes for a deeper dive SHORTOn this 4H Chart, I find good cause to continue my lot of 10 put options on TSLA. TSLA has
dropped another $ 25.00 per share price during the earnings report time frame. While the
overall long time frame supertrend is up, TSLA is presently in a sustained pullback likely due
to significant fundamental and economic factors. The antics of its CEO demanding an award of
more shares so he can launch a big AI initiative within TSLA is not helpful. He has taken a big
haircut but he can easily afford it.
In the analysis, TSLA has put in a bear flag which suggests more bullishness in the continuation.
The ceiling of resistance right now is the POC line of the volume profile at 230. If price can
get through that then 265 at the top of the volume profile's high volume area might be
achievable. A bottom may be the second lower VWAP band at 175 which could be reachable
in the latter part of the upcoming week. Weakness in the Chinese economy is a heavy weight
on TSLA right now. Bright days ahead but some pain and chaos in the meanwhile
Trade plan: I will hold the puts until I see a reversal pattern on the 30-60 minute charts and
then close them. If no reversal pattern in the upcoming week, for purposes of time decay
complications I will roll the puts out another 28 days. Overall, TSLA continues to pay traders
well some of them might buy a TSLA to return the favor with the profits received especially
if there are more price cuts on the horizon that do not adversly effect margins and fec\deral
subsidies are extended they would be an uplift to sales, revenue and outlook overall.
PLCE crash and flush on pre-emptive warning from executives LONGPLCE as shown on the 30 minute time frame had a "waterfall" event when a bad news catalyst
hit the wires. Executives announced earnings issues one month out from the report due about
March 14th. Maybe is real and may not. The are no filings available to show any insider sell-
off unlike what is going on at General Dynamics at its all-time high. Could those executives
push traders to bail on the stock, force it to crater and then buy even more at the bottom or
have friends and family help them if they are well informed ? Who knows ? Does the CEO of
TSLA have a plan to help share prices drop so when his new compensation plan is set up he
gets even more shares and price rises to make his unrealized losses magically disappear.
Is there manipulation in the market ? Is this a case of it ?
Anyway enough said. PLCE is in early reversal and recovery. It has crossed the moving averages
on the chart and there is a massive volume of buyers scooping from the bottom in the
closing Friday afternoon. I was one of them. My shares and options are few. ( compared with
the CEO/COO/CFO guys at Children's Place.- they typically buy 100,000 shares at a pop - after
all they have the confidence of already knowing what is going on inside) I typically want to
see 2-3X relative volume to put on a big position. This is 4X. Seems the risk is low compared
with a 60% upside back to price levels before the news. Price has already recovered partially.
My stock trade is 5% above break even after less than a day and now has a 3% trail stop so
I don't need to pay attention to it. The call options targeting $19 for March 16th are up 16%
in the first day. I will sell to close a day or two before earnings to hedge my suppositions.
If earnings are as bad as these executives say. The call options will plummet.
My alternative is to keep the call options running but hedge them with a single put option
below ITM for a strike OTM expiring the same day setting up a strangle to take much of the risk
way. In that case, the call options would still fall with a bad earnings miss but the put option
will provide insurance buffering the loss. It remains to be seen how this plays out and I will
check for SEC filings at intervals. For now, I will chase the relative volume because it is higher
than the typical for similar scenarios. Best of luck to any traders who take this trade.
EURUAD potential sell updateas you guys can see euruad is playing out as planned ill make sure to put analysis i shared a hour or two ago to this description but now ill just waiting on a pull back for confirmation so ill just be watching closely because this move could happen really fast.
*EURAUD/SELL
Bearish Flag on EUR/USD @ D1A bearish flag pattern has formed on the daily EUR/USD chart following a downtrend that lasts since the end of 2023. The pole and the flag's borders are shown with the yellow lines. The stop-loss level (the red line at 1.07953) is set to the highest point of the flag area. The take-profit level (the green line at 1.06210) is set to the pole's length subtracted from the stop-loss level. I will open this short position only if the currency pair closes significantly below the flag's lower border.
Potential Bear Flag?? - EJHere I have EUR/JPY on the 4Hr Chart!
Ever Since the beginning of the sight of the Double Top Reversal Pattern on the Weekly Timeframe, Price for EJ has been slowly forming what looks to be a Bearish Channel!
Now over the weekend of Jan. 19th - 21st, Price crested inside the Channel and made a strong decline signaling the Buying Power has waned allowing Bearish pressure to come in and take over!!
Now if my Bearish Bias turns out correct, we will be looking at a potential Trend Continuation pattern called a Bear Flag!!
The caution area price must battle with will be the price range 158.580 - 157.950 acting as support currently but could potentially become RESISTANCE IF BROKEN!
*For Prediction to be correct we must first see a VALID BEARISH BREAK of this pattern with a VALID RETEST!
Fundamentally this week:
EUR - Clear
JPY - Clear
Oil Remains Channeled!Here I have USOIL on the 4Hr Chart!
The beginning of this week seen what was a Fake-Out of the Bearish Break of this Bullish Channel!
Now typically in this case, a Bullish Channel preceded by a Strong Downtrend move signals a Trend Continuation pattern in the potential form of a Bear Flag!
With this possible trade idea, my expectation is that we look for a VALID BREAK to the DOWNSIDE!!
BUT there is always the possibility Oil was able to find enough Support after having visited the 68 - 67 Support Area!!
With that being said, Lets see which way OIL BREAKS?!
SEIUSDTSEIUSDT is in strong bearish trend and also form bearish flag pattern. Recently the instrument has break through important support zone.
Now the price is trading within the bearish flag and seems like it getting ready to break it.
Will the sellers took benefits from these bearish confluences?
I'm shorting somethingJust bought puts exp. 12/29 strike 17.5. I'm so bullish on the market that I want to hedge a little bit.
Price is forming a bearish flag after a HS. Looks very bearish in short term. I'm giving it a shot, I think is to break down soon.
Bearish Continuation?? - EJHere I have EUR/JPY on the Daily Chart!
Ever since price made its High on Nov' 15th, it has been in a decline.
With current Price Action making a series of Higher Lows into Higher Highs all while the RSI is below 50 leads me to believe we are looking at a very convincing continuation pattern called a Bear Flag!!
With the Bear Flag, we suspect Price will give us a Solid Bearish Break below the Support Leg of the Rising Channel to continue LOWER!
Strengthening my Bearish Bias is the Flattening of the 200 EMA with Price working LOWER out of the Consolidation Zone and the Interaction of the EMA with price showing strength possibly switching!
*Still waiting for Break and Close BELOW 200 EMA to confirm*
Be Aware! Price is still playing within the Parameters of Consolidation so I've marked the potential reversal area as the Support Zone.
Fundamentally this week:
EUR - Holiday (Mon) PMI (Wed) CPI (Thur)
JPY - Holiday (Mon)
*Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!
-Pattern Prediction-
**If Price Breaks and Closes above Rising Channel, Pattern INVALIDATED!
**If Price Breaks and Closes below Rising Channel, Pattern CONFIRMED!
RAREUSDTRAREUSDT is in strong bearish trend and also form bearish flag pattern. Recently the instrument has break through important support zone.
Now the price is trading within the bearish flag and seems like it getting ready to break it.
Will the sellers took benefits from these bearish confluences?
Seizing Opportunity: GBPJPY Unveils Bearish Momentum on 4H ChartThe GBPJPY currency pair is currently exhibiting a discernible bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour time frame. Noteworthy in this context is the presence of a bearish divergence, adding an additional layer of significance to the technical analysis. Consequently, our strategy entails initiating a trade position upon the confirmed breakout of the bearish flag, anticipating a downward trajectory in line with the established bearish momentum.
AUDNZD: Bear Flag SetupThe AUD is forming a Bearflag against the NZD on the Daily as the RSI cracks below the Mid-Line, if it plays out we could see the bottom half of the range soon.
It also should be noted that the NZD has outperformed a lot of big currencies recently such as the CAD and USD so it would be somewhat expected for the AUD to underperform against it.
I'm going to try this againPrice is retesting the broken support. We have here several bearish patterns (see my previous post lines below) and the stock need much more for a come back. It might try to break the resistance but I don't think is going to make it. If my puts expire out of the money I'll buy more and try again.
Money Making Opportunities in EURUSDEURUSD is currently navigating a weaker bullish trend on the weekly chart, adding an interesting layer to the market dynamics.
On the daily chart, a bearish flag pattern setup unfolds, creating an intriguing scenario. Furthermore, the 1-hourly chart reveals a bullish bat pattern, while the 4-hourly chart showcases a bearish bat pattern.
In the week ahead, I'm poised to engage in whichever trading setup comes to fruition first.
Now, I'm keen to hear about your trade plan. Do you carry any trend biases, and if so, what factors influence them? Your insights matter—please share them below!
If Solana hits full target it will gain 358% from recent bottomMany cryptos are testing the breakout up from a bear flag right now (gala, mana, qnt to name a few). Many of these bear flags flag is also a descending channel. Their flags seem most valid on a weekly chart…I just took a look today at solana and sure enough it also formed a bear flag with a descending channel for a flag, but it is already way further along in its breakout than many of the others. If it reaches the full measured move target which is the length of the flag pole than it will have made 358% gains from the bottom. Also the fact that it has clearly broken upward from its bear flag should increase the likelihood of the other alts currently in the same pattern breaking upward from theirs as well…of course this is not always the case….there has been plenty of times in the past when the entire market was forming cup and handles and only 4-5 of the cup and handles broke up and reached their targets before the rest failed…failures like that usually only occur after we have been in an uptrend for awhile, so since this would be a reversal breakout from the current downtrend it increases the likelihood that most of the patterns should trigger since the bullish momentum is only just now getting started. A good early indicator will be if solana hits the full 100% target. *not financial advice*