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Bearish Flag

USDCHF false break out and bear flagLooks like USDCHF made a a false breakout 2 weeks ago. Broke up on the upside of that bullish wedge and broke down again. Past half year i assumed this was a big bearish wedge, while knowing there was a chance it might be an ascending triangle. Because of that big rally a month ago, it looked like the triangle won. Now it seems that one failed as well, which usually suggest a counter move. Now to give it a bit more wiggle room, think we can say that if the green support around 1.0050 breaks, the pull back has probably failed. But then we want to see a fast drop from that bear flag. Think for a normal flag, should see it drop within 48 hours or so. Previous analysis:
by botje11
5
GBPAUD Broken and Retested: Flag, H&S, And Ascending TrendlineAfter reversing off of the .5 fib retracement, GBPAUD is giving us a nice opportunity to follow the trend further downward. We have multiple confirmation signals including: 1) A broken and retested ascending trendline 2) A broken and retested Bear Flag 3) A broken and retested Head and Shoulders Pattern We also have a potential AB=CD pattern with the D point converging with the 1.414 extension of the AB impulse leg. First target will be the most recent support. Second target will be the 1.272 extension of the AB impulse leg this area is quite a strong area to take profit because the 1.272 extension has nice confluence with the next level of structure Third target will be the 1.414 extension of the AB impulse leg. Final target will be the 1.618 extension of the AB impulse leg, a level which also shows strong confluence with structure. Please Like, Comment, and Follow Goodluck!
Short
by AidanMDang
1
EURAUD Bear Flag, Partially Formed Head and Shoulders and ABCDEURAUD is giving us a nice opportunity to sell the market. After completing a large ABCD pattern, and reversing from resistance, a bearish continuation pattern is forming. We have a nice bear flag (blue) along with a partially formed head and shoulders pattern. The smaller BC impulse found resistance at the .618 retracement of the AB leg + structure. Target: If we project the AB leg from the C point, our D point target correlates nicely with support looking left. This area also has confluence with the 1.272 and 1.414 extension of the AB impulse leg. Goodluck!
Short
by AidanMDang
ETH Double bottom or Bear flagThe market is at a turning point now it seems. Going to keep this one short. 2 options here, it's either a bear flag or a double bottom. For the double bottom we need to see it move inside of a small bull flag as we can see on the left. So needs to stay close against the neckline of the W bottom for a while, maybe a few hours. If that will happen, a break upwards is very likely to happen. If we see rejection at the current level, so if we drop again below 155ish, than the bear flag option will become much more likely to happen. At this point it's difficult to say which one it will be. For the bulls i would say, play it safe and wait a while to see that small bull flag play out first. Because than your chances go from 50/50 to almost 80/90%. For the bears, its more difficult, because if it starts to drop it will likely continue to drop. Based on my BTC analysis, for now i prefer a bullish outcome, but only if btc can hold current levels. As we can see from my previous analysis, so far it has been moving as planned, so the bullish version would be ideal. Would have been so much easier to say things if we didn't have that Finex issue hanging over the market. But feels like most already forgot about it. Tether is also on it's way up again, which is good. Previous analysis:
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by botje11
18
Bitcoin making a Bear flag or preparing for a Bart move upJust many things that don't add up the past week since the Bitfinex dump. There was panic when the news came out, which looked very bad at first sight. But 4 days have passed with sideways price action, which is not really confirming that we have panic in the market. OI' back to it's level from before the dump as well now. Now assuming that many people have an account at Bitmex and have funds spread around many exhanges as well. Since Tether' was dropping again and prob most did not forget the Tether' dump half year ago, only option would have been to move to crypto (or Bitcoin). But since it's less easy to move to fiat, think we can assume that many people have hedged through Bitmex, since it's easy to do there. This would explain the big increase of OI there. When looking at ETH's OI', that one barely moved since the dump. That would confirm this theory. Normally hedging means locking up your $ value, so it should not matter which way it goes you can't loose or win in $ if BTC' dumps or rallies. Let's say, someone has 100K capital spread around several exhanges. If he would want to hedge it like it should be, he should have 100K to hedge as well. So in other words, he should not leverage hedge 10K to 100K. Because this way he would risk getting liquidated if the price would move up a lot. Since OI increased so much (have not seen it increase this much after a dump like this, i am thinking maybe a lot of people simply hedged their assets. But OI can't increase if there also are not a lot of new longs as well. So who are these people who have bought 130 mil new longs since the low, with all the uncertainty of Bitfinex hanging above the market? If you remember from my previous analysis, i saw a few big buys at the low (first half hour of the dump), like it were people who tried to stop the panic dump. I missed the first 20 min or so of the dump, but i saw one 5 mil market buy, which is 95% sure a buy and not a short closing, because i saw the OI increase that moment. Of course anyone could have done this, doesn't need to be a pro whale. But usually retail money, would short during the panic than go long. So for now my assumption is that it's smart money. Why would they be doing this? There can be several reasons. My first though was, supporting the price to stop a big dump. Because they were still looking at another wave up to like 6K before wanting to unload the bags. So a dump to 4800/4500 would cost them much more than supporting the price at these levels. In the hope to be able to unload at higher prices and decrease their risk. To make things less complicated, short term think we can say that: If we move stable sideways/down for another 2 days or so, that a bullish outcome becomes more likely. Until then, bears are in favor! Now i will explain the chart on the right. We can see a very similar shape as we have seen during other big drops. They are similar, but nr 2 shows this movement could take another week and than instead of a lower low we could see a double bottomish level instead. They do all tell us, that if we see a second drop, it has to be smaller (and therefore also less volume) than the previous one. So nr2 says we should hang like this for like another week or so then test 4900/4950 again. Nr1 says, we drop withing 2 days or so and test 4750/4900 again. 2 weeks ago i gave 4700 as a good support level, week later i adjusted it to 4800. So for not having too many variables, i would say 4800ish should be the max and not 4700. If we see another big drop happen, like again 500 points or so, than we can most likely say goodbye already to the rally from the past 3 months. So bears are in favor now, that is clear. But the longer this takes and if the drops start to stay small and seem a bit controlled like they have been past days, than i would start to worry a bit. For the bulls, i would sit it out and wait for my description for the coming 2 days or so to play out. Even if we do see the blue line play out on the left, there are still a few factors that we can not see upfront, to judge if it's just a correctional (shake out) move before a dump again or that we will continue the rally again. And as if we don't have enough factors playing a role already, we still have Bitfinex and Tether hanging above the market as well. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by botje11
84
EURUSD Bearish Flag Pattern - Downtrend ResumesOur analysis on the 18.04 indicated a Double Top Reversal Pattern from which we expected the EURUSD downtrend to resume. The currency pair effectively continued falling towards 1.114 before reversing towards 1.116 and consolidating between 1.114 and 1.116 on low trading volume before resuming it's downtrend as trading volumes increased. We therefore see that a bearish flag pattern was formed continuing the current downtrend and as a result maintain our short EUR/USD position.
Short
by KQMarkets
EURJPY - ContinuationThe price seems to be starting to form a bearish flag, it is still in its early stages, it should give us an idea within a couple of hours if the price is forming a bearish flag or not. The price had recently dropped a lot, this had cause the RSI to move into an area of being oversold. The price is currently in a period of consolidation, this would allow the RSI to position itself, A careful eye needs to be kept on the price, as it is very likely that the price would break out within the coming hours. The price is much more likely to break out the bottom of this flag confirming a continuation of the downward trend.
Short
by JohnnyPurtoy98
GBPUSD - ContinuationIt seems like this pair is going to be moving down even further than it already has, this comes from the fact that a bearish flag is forming. The flag had started to form as the RSI hit the oversold level, meaning this could very well be a period of consolidation. An eye should be kept on which side the price breaks out the flag, it is very likely that the price would break out the bottom, sending this pair downwards. I will keep this graph updated over the coming days.
Short
by JohnnyPurtoy98
Crude WTI Oil Short 1 Hour Trade IdeaCrude Oil Short After seeing the first drop at 60.25, oil has been declining ever since. And a bearish flag pattern is seen on the 1 hour. I see this as a CP (Continuation Pattern) To tie in this thought, I also see compression into demand where buyers keep buying until it reaches an area where supply exceeds demand and it quickly falls, Within that blue zone, price will form supply once more and freefall. This is a high probability, low risk trade forming. Easy 6R trade! Until next time beloved!
TVC:USOILShort
by ricky1270
1