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Bearishgold

Once in a Decade Bearish Reversal on GoldThe week closed with bearish engulfing reversal indicating a drop from very high bullish level of 27 on the Thrend Strength After Reversal Indicator Such high level is reached only for the 5th time in modern gold price history. Previous occurrences of a drop from such a high level indicate a major correction in Gold prices: Drop from level 23 in May 2012 was followed by 23% correction Drop from level 25 in March 2008 was followed by 23% correction Drop from level 21 in February 2003 resulted in 9% correction Drop from level 22 in January 1994 resulted in 28% correction The biggest drop in history from level 42 occurred in July 1980 and resulted in 50% correction
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by HunterCoder
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to push up and look for a reaction above, this came earlier than expected but we got the move as anticipated down into the lower regions completing KOG’s bias of the week and day. It’s at that lower level we got the perfect tap and bounce giving the long trade back upside allowing us to use the red boxes and Excalibur to trade up to where we closed. A good week on the markets again, not only on Gold but all the other pairs we trade giving us nearly a full house of completed targets, bar NAS. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we’re going to keep it simple and as usual update traders through the week with our plans. We have a resistance level above 2663-5 which if held during the early session we feel could give traders the opportunity to attempt the short trade back down into the 2650-55 region and below that 2635-30. We’re likely to get tap and bounce on the move, so keep an eye on the red boxes for the reaction level. We’re going to play a little caution here on this bullish move at the moment and say that if we manage to break below the 2650, we will hold back on attempting the long trades, reason being there is a structure on the chart that is sticking out and it entails caution. Like we said, simple one this week, only looking for that move unless we break above 2675, otherwise, another curveball on the way! KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2635 with targets above 2670 and above that 2675. Bearish on break of 2635 with targets below 2595 Red boxes : Break above 2665 for 2675 and 2680 extension of the move Break below 2650 for 2640 and 2630 extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said if we saw price attempt the order region resistance above 2450-55 and held, we say an opportunity to short the market back down into the 2430 level, and if broken the extreme level of 2407-10 which is what we wanted to target initially. Ideally, we wanted the long trade to come from there, however, our bias target level bearish below was sitting at 2395, so we waited for that to complete, which it did. During the week we managed to get in on the long trade and as updated with the community, followed Excalibur all the way up into where we closed on Friday. It wasn’t an easy week, we stayed out at the right time however, and managed to stay the right side of the move. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We have a lot of news this week which is going to drive the markets, even though we say it most weeks these days, we would suggest traders take it easy on the markets and don’t place all their eggs in one basket. On the close we can see the 2430-35 region now accumulating the price which is causing a bit of a whipsaw. We have lower support sitting at the 2420-25 level which if held, is likely to continue to push this higher attempting to break above the 2435 price. Our initial level is the 2450-55 which we would like to see completed this week with the extension of the move into the 2465-8 region if they can take it there. This is the level, unless broken above traders may get the opportunity to test the short trade. Based on the above and as the path suggest on the chart, these support levels, if approached and defended first and unless broken can give us opportunities for further increases into but it’s that 2465-70 region that needs to be watched. Due to a potentially low volume day tomorrow we can expect the whipsawing and choppy price action to continue, so we would suggest traders wait for the market to make it’s move rather than attempt trying to trade the range. Therefore, a break above 2437 would give more confidence in a move upside and a break below 2425 will give us more confidence in the price attempting to take the lower liquidity first. KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2406 with targets above 2450 and above that 2465 Bearish on break of 2406 with targes below 2395 and below that 2365 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the price to open and attempt to attack the lower support regions 2375 and below that 2367-5, which if held we felt long trades would be available to traders this worked extremely well for us and anyone else who followed the KOG Report. We gave the levels above 2410 and above that 2430 on the break, expecting a pullback around the 2410 region which only gave us a small bounce before continuing. We updated the reports through the week, in particular the FOMC report giving the target level of 2450 which is where we wanted to get a nice entry for to target, unfortunately, we didn’t manage to get the entry for that trade. Instead, we held the longs and finished off another great week in Camelot. Friday’s NFP, analysis was posted for the Camelot members together with the potential high and the hotspot which worked well for traders giving them the opportunity to enter short, hit the hotspot as well as the Excalibur target which was active. An extremely decent week not only on gold but all the other pairs we trade alongside our traders in Camelot. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Ok, to be honest, this week we may be subject to complete change based on the move NFP created on Friday, however, we have to go with what the chart is showing us and of course, with this being Gold the unexpected. So, we’ll say for this week we have the order region support level 2430 and below that the extreme level of 2410-13. Above we have the resistance levels of 2450-55 again an important level. If we see price attempt the 2450-55 region in the early sessions, which we feel is likely, a rejection there can bring us down into that 2430-35 region again attempting to break it and take lower into the extreme level below which is where we feel the ideal long trade will come from to carry this back up towards the 2490-95 region. That’s the region we ideally want to see completed before and held for now. This gives us the potential range to play unless one of the key levels are broken. Breaking 2410 we’ll be seeing this flush pretty fast so lets play some caution here, see how the levels react and we’ll take it as we see it. KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2430 with targets above 2465 and above that 2490 Bearish on break of 2430 with targets below 2410 and below that 2395 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
11
THE KOG REPORT (Another aggressive week on the horizon)THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be sticking with the plan and gave the extreme level of 2193-5 which is where we expected there to be a RIP, and if held we would be looking to short the market back down into the 2150-55 levels and below that 2147. It was at these levels that we said we would be expecting another RIP with extension into 2135-40 and we would then be looking to trade this back up level to level. During the course of the week, we updated our plans and decided to we’d go with the flip and on the break of 2175, we would continue with the long trades with the bias level 2204, 2210 and the target level 2224 on the available. As you can see, we completed the targets above on the flip closing price above the target. As phenomenal week in Camelot, not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we trade. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We ended the week last week with an update highlighting the potential regions we would be looking for the price to target on opening. So, for the early part of the week we will stick with the same levels and clearly state, we’re not looking to long the market unless we get a decent pullback! Price may want to stretch, so those that are short without stops (yes, there are traders who trade like this) please keep the higher levels of resistance in mind and know that without historical data up here, we will need to give or take pips either side of levels! We have the higher resistance zone of 2250-55 and the lower support level of 2225-20 which could be the play for some part of the week as the market takes a rest after the aggressive move upside we’ve witnessed. A complete reversal here may not be on the cards with a stretch into 2255 very likely in our opinion. It’s at these levels, if targeted, that we may look to test the short trades back down into the 2230 and below that 2220 regions with extension of the move back to test the breakout 2205-2197. Bears need to see a clean reversal forming here with a longer timeframe swing with a break below the 2195 level, otherwise, levels above on bounces from support continue all the way up towards the 2286 region which in our opinion is a vali target level. In summary: Higher resistance level hit first, clean reversal we’ll look to short back down into 2230 and below that 2220. It’s the lower regions of support we’ll then look at taking the long trades again unless we break below 2195! Price comes down into support levels, holds above 2220-5 we could see the range form between support there and 2250-55 resistance pre-event! Don’t forget, we have NFP in the week ahead as well as other news that will drive the markets aggressively. Less experienced and new traders, these aren’t the conditions you should be trading in, rather waiting for the price to do what it needs to and then looking for the right setups. KOG’s Bias of the week: Bullish above 2220-5 with targets above 2250 and above that 2286 Bearish on break of 2220-5 with targets below 2195 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Gold Bear Case - Wyckoff Distribution Pattern - Posting for funThis chart is for entertainment purposes only and setups up a possible bear scenario. I'm not an expert at distribution patterns but I thought it would be fun to see if this might fit the pattern. I don't think gold is excluded from the 'everything bubble' that the Fed is trying to pop. The Fed has been very clear that interest rates are going to go higher and stay higher for a long time. Gold does not yield interest payments and so people are going to put their money in things that do (e.g. treasury bills paying 4-5% for a low risk return). I would not be surprised to see a large correction in gold to prices below or at $1k. I'm neither bearish or bullish on gold. Enjoy.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by XYZ-Trader-
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. What a great time we’re having on Gold at the moment with the moves playing out nearly to perfection into all our levels. We’ve done well on this and we’re not interested in giving anything back so we will wait for the levels shown to give us strong support or resistance before we attempt to take a trade, even then it will be with a small lot and a tight stop in place. Please don’t mess around with Gold when its like this, if you’re in the wrong way Gold can really cause you sleepless nights! So, moving forward we’re going to trade this with two scenarios in mind, looking at only the highs and the lows of the present range. Scenario 1: We have a target below which is sitting around 1720, this is also the weekly support level so potentially this can be a short term stop on the selling pressure we’re witnessing. If price spikes into that level during FOMC or in the coming sessions we feel an opportunity to long the market exists. We’re not looking for huge captures, simply the 1775 and 1785 levels initially. After this, take partials, stop to entry and let it run. Breaking the level to the downside and you can see what's next!! Scenario 2: They push the price up, the first level we’re looking for is 1775 and above that 1785-90. If we see resistance there we feel an opportunity to short the market back down in to the 1750 and below that 1735 and 1720 levels could be on the cards. Breaking above the 1795 level and holding above it then its likely we will see this go a little higher before then attempting to come back down It’s a dangerous market to trade and its not for the faint hearted. Please be sensible and don’t try to get rich quick, it won’t happen! Have a risk model in place and make sure your lots sizes are in accordance with your account size. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last week’s KOG report we said we would stick with the plan from the previous KOG Report where we were looking for an undercut low on Gold at some point before taking the long trade up into the higher levels looking for our Excalibur targets to complete. We said we were looking for a good entry to target the 1870, 1875 and above that the 1880-85 levels. The structure on the chart suggested we would get an undercut low from the week prior to last week’s KOG report as well as suggesting a higher high. We said we would be shorting the market level to level with caution but looking for that opportunity to go long into those higher levels. As you can see from last week’s report and charts the market played out nearly exactly as we planned giving traders not only the move down into support but also the move up, completing a point to point, level to level move once again! The move down and then up gave traders over 500pips banked on Gold alone last week, not to mention the numerous other pairs we traded in Camelot. We will however say, it was a very difficult market to trade with the range they presented in between! So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re now looking for the price to find some form of exhaustion from the Friday move and attempt a pullback before then going to target the resistance level which is sitting above. We’re not bullish or bearish this week and we’re certainly not confident this is a move on Gold to the ATHs. So, unlike last week where we only gave one plan, this week we will give you two scenario’s to consider when trading the early part of the week. Please remember we have FOMC this week so there’s every chance we will see a settled market playing within a range for the early part of the week. Scenario 1: On open, we see the price push up towards that 1878-85 level and find resistance. Based on this resistance we feel this would be an opportunity to short the market down into the 1860 and 1855 levels where we’re hoping the price will find support. Support here and its likely we will see the price again attempt to target the high and potentially test the 1900 level! Breaking 1850 and closing below it will negate this scenario. Scenario 2: We see the price push down in the early sessions, we will be looking for support around the 1860, 1855 levels to hold and then once confirmed feel confident this region would represent an opportunity to then go long to target the higher price levels of 1880, 1885 and above the 1890. Again, breaking below the 1850 level will negate this scenario. In summary: We can see this targeting higher levels but we’re still bearish on Gold overall. At the moment above 1850 we’ll look higher but ultimately, we’re anticipating a strong turn at some point for Gold to come and complete our lower targets. Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last weeks KOG Report we were looking for our 1980-85 target to be completed at some point over the week and suggested we would like to see some bearish pressure after the completion of the target. We managed to hit the target giving followers an opportunity to long the market in to the region, however, as you can see the price overstretched our selling zone before then giving us the short into 1960 levels. That’s where we saw a resumption of the bullish momentum take over and you can see what happened next. We didn’t get the lower targets that we wanted but the opportunities to take the long and the short gave us a good capture. Overall, we hit 8 targets in Camelot with 3 of them being on Gold, so a quiet but good week all in all. So what can we expect in the week ahead? There are many bullish traders in the markets looking for this to go and test the ATH, we’re also expecting an attempt to test that recent high again but we’re hoping for this to test that lower support region at some point to give us a better entry for the long. We can see this opening like the last couple of weeks with a gap, our bias being a gap to the upside. So as always, based on the illustration there are two scenarios here based on how the market opens. Scenario 1: If this opens and goes down first, we won’t be looking for any shorts on the market. We will be looking for support at the lower levels of 1970-60 and just below that 1950-45 where will want to test the long trade into the higher targets of 2005 as the first target, this is where we will take some profits on the trade and protect the entry. The reason we’re doing that is because we’re expecting this to consolidate and range up until FOMC on Wednesday which is potentially where we will see the next breakout. Unless they move it before the release! So in summary, a test on the low, a test on the 2003-5 level where we see resistance and then a small decline before the push up (if it comes). Scenario 2: Market opens and we see the price go up, we’re going to play on the defense, there are key levels above where we are likely to see a reaction in price. Again, that 2003-5 level is sticking out for us, if we see resistance there, we may test the short trade with a small manageable lot size to target the lower support levels of 1980, 1975 and below that 1968 before looking to go long again. We will only do this is the price action and structure is right, otherwise we will stay away from shorting this at the moment unless it breaks below that 1940 level. We will be looking for this to go all the way up to test the 4H liquidity level as well as the daily trend line resistance level sitting around 2080-85 before attempting to short it again. So this week we’re going to be cautious on the short trades unless we see a strong resistance and our bias will be to the upside as long as the price stays above 1940-45 price regions. We’ve shared the Daily chart below to update you on the daily structure that we’ve been sharing recently. As you can see we have a potential trendline running all the way up for the double top test on the daily and 4 hourly which is situated around the 2080-90 price level. We'll share our daily updates as usual with our views and trade ideas. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
22