Hey SPYLOVERS here are 3 Scenarios for this week check it out...Another week analyzing SPY's behavior correctly as we planned. I’d like to invite you to review my previous analyses of the price movements throughout the week, so you can see that I base my strategy solely on price action and institutional supply and demand concepts—simple methods that the price has respected.
In this case, we won’t be seeing historical highs anytime soon. I believe we’re in a pullback where we need to monitor closely to see if the price might return to the order block I have around $563.60. This area is significant because it’s where the highest concentration of orders in the market is currently positioned.
If we look at the last candle SPY closed with, although it ended higher than the previous one, it’s still showing selling pressure, so we’ll likely continue on the path of selling for a few more days.
The key is to analyze the next move the price makes when it touches the order block:
Here are 3 possible Scenarios.
Scenario 1. If the price reaches this zone ($563.60), it might dip a little further as a fake-out before bouncing back strongly. Here, we need to pay close attention to the candlestick pattern that appears in this area.
Scenario 2. If it respects the order block but doesn’t bounce with enough strength, we might be witnessing a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, which could later bring the price to the inflection zone (the blue middle area).
Scenario 3. If the price breaks my order block with strength and volume, then we’re validating a CHoCH (Change of Character), where we could see the price move to the inflection zone (the blue middle area).
No matter what happens, remember to always watch the candlestick pattern and the volume. That’s the main fuel behind the price's strength, and analyzing it this way will make your analysis more accurate.
Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE! Best regards.
Bearishmomentum
DXY (US Dollar Index) Analysis Daily TimeframeDXY is currently sitting at a daily resistance level after a bullish run since last week.
we anticipate a potential move to the downside as the index shows signs of weakening, by creating a Doji candlestick, which indicates market indecision.
Remember: If the US Dollar Index turns bearish, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to show bullish momentum.
Let's take a closer look at these pairs for potential buy setups.
High Probability EURAUD 4H Bearish OB Setup – TP1 at Sell-Side EURAUD is showing a high-probability bearish setup on the 4-hour chart. Price tapped into a bearish order block (OB) near 1.62579, aligning with the optimal trade entry (OTE) zone. With price respecting this OB and the structure holding, we anticipate a move down toward the sell-side liquidity/TP1 at 1.61363. If this liquidity level is taken, we could see further downside momentum as the trade progresses.
USDJYP - Technical Analysis [Short Setup]🔹 USDJYP Analysis on 4H chart
- The current Trend is BULLISH
- There is BEARISH divergences
- Reversal pattern is present which is rising wedge
🔹 Trade Plan For 1HR
- Entry Level = 149.093
- Stop Loss = 149.656
- TP1 = 148.545
- TP2 = 147.982
- TP3 = 147.397
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
- Second TP is 1:2
- Third TP is 1:3
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:3 RR
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Nifty 50 Index - Head and Shoulders Pattern ConfirmedOn the daily timeframe, Nifty 50 has formed a textbook Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The left shoulder formed around late August, followed by a higher peak (head) in early September, and now the right shoulder is completed. The neckline has been broken at the 24,612 level, indicating further downside risk.
Key Points:
Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Bearish Reversal)
Neckline : 24,612 (Broken)
Immediate Support: 24,459
Target 1: 23,348 (measured move from the head to neckline)
Volume: Increased during the right shoulder formation, confirming selling pressure.
RSI: Currently near the oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term relief bounce before resuming the downtrend.
Projection:
Short-term downside: The first target can be seen around 23,348, where the measured move would complete.
Risk Management: A close back above the neckline would invalidate the bearish outlook, with resistance now around 24,816.
Where will markets trend next? Planetary patterns give us clues!Solar Eclipses are major 6-month pivot points. The next one is on October 2, 2024. Invest By Cycles decodes planetary patterns and astrological cycles as an investing enhancement tool to complement classic fundamental and technical analysis.
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top.
If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one.
If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
NZDUSD - Technical Analysis [Long Setup]🔹 NZDUSD Analysis on 1HR chart
- The current Trend is Bullish
- Bullish Divergence is Present
- No Reversal pattern
- Waiting for a Break of Structure for Confirmation
🔹 Trade Plan
- Entry Level = 0.61647
- Stop Loss = 0.61072
- TP1 = 0.62223
- TP2 = 0.62802
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
- Second TP is 1:2
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea! ✌🏼
NZDUSD Strategy 1 Trade Plan There was a Bullish trend, forming the bearish harmonic pattern also have bearish divergence.
Now, trend changed printed the LL, there is continuation pattern of bearish flag.
We take entry (Sell Stop) at the breakdown of the pole i.e. 0.61570 and keep our Stop loss above the LH once it will get mature near 0.61954 according to Fib Retracement of 38%.
Trading Analysis and Prediction for BTCUSD at $60,736### Trading Analysis and Prediction for BTCUSD at $60,036
**Current Market Overview:**
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $60,036, experiencing a robust upward momentum as it continues to recover from recent market fluctuations. The cryptocurrency market is seeing renewed interest from institutional investors and increased adoption in various sectors, contributing to the ongoing bullish trend.
**Technical Analysis:**
The BTCUSD pair has successfully broken through key resistance levels at $58,000 and $59,500, signaling strong buyer interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 70, indicating that Bitcoin is in overbought territory, but not yet showing signs of a significant reversal. Moving averages (MA) on the 50-day and 200-day charts are showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the continuation of the upward trend.
**Support and Resistance Levels:**
- **Immediate Support:** $58,000 - A break below this level could signal short-term bearishness, potentially leading to a dip towards $55,000.
- **Immediate Resistance:** $61,500 - This level has been tested multiple times and may act as a psychological barrier. A decisive break above could lead to a swift move towards $65,000.
**Anticipated Trading Direction:**
Given the current technical indicators and market sentiment, BTCUSD is likely to continue its bullish trajectory, with potential short-term corrections. The market is expected to test the $61,500 resistance in the coming days. If the price breaks above this level with high volume, the next target would be $65,000.
**Objective Trading Strategy:**
1. **Long Position:** Traders should consider entering a long position around the current price level ($60,036), with a stop-loss set slightly below the $58,000 support level. The target for this trade would be $65,000, with a potential extension to $68,000 if market conditions remain favorable.
2. **Risk Management:** It's crucial to monitor the RSI and volume closely. If RSI begins to diverge negatively or if there’s a significant drop in volume, traders should consider tightening stop-loss orders or taking partial profits.
3. **Alternative Strategy (Short-Term Correction):** In case of a failure to break above $61,500, traders may look for short-term bearish setups. A short position could be considered if the price drops below $58,000, targeting $55,000, with a tight stop-loss around $59,000 to manage risk.
**Conclusion:**
Bitcoin is currently positioned for continued growth, but traders should remain vigilant of key resistance levels and potential short-term corrections. Employing a strategic approach with well-placed stop-losses and considering both bullish and bearish scenarios will provide the best opportunities for capitalizing on the current BTCUSD market trends.
Bullish Bearish Gold #GOLD #FVG #SUPPLYDEMANDCurrent Market Context
Recent Trend: A significant downtrend with large red candles indicating strong selling pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Around 2,377.45 to 2,380.
Resistance: Around 2,402 to 2,403.65.
Potential Entry Points
Bullish Entry Points:
Support Bounce (Demand Order Block):
Entry: Enter a long position around the support area of 2,377.45 to 2,380, if you see bullish reversal patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer) or strong buying volume.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the support level, for example, around 2,370 to limit potential losses.
Take Profit: Target the resistance area around 2,402 to 2,403.65 or previous highs for potential profit-taking.
Bearish Entry Points
Resistance Rejection (Supply Order Block):
Entry: Enter a short position around the resistance area of 2,402 to 2,403.65, if you see bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, shooting star) or strong selling volume.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the resistance level, for example, around 2,410 to limit potential losses.
Take Profit: Target the support area around 2,377.45 to 2,380 or previous lows for potential profit-taking.
Chart Analysis
Given the recent downtrend and strong selling pressure:
Bearish Bias: The overall trend appears bearish due to the significant downward movement.
Best Entry for Bears: The best entry point for a bearish position would be around the identified resistance level of 2,402 to 2,403.65. Wait for confirmation of resistance holding, such as a bearish candlestick pattern or increased selling volume.
Trade Setup
Bearish Trade Setup
Resistance Area (Supply Order Block):
Entry: Around 2,402 to 2,403.65.
Stop Loss: Above 2,410.
Take Profit: Around 2,377.45 to 2,380.
Bullish Trade Setup
If you are looking for a counter-trend trade (riskier):
Support Area (Demand Order Block):
Entry: Around 2,377.45 to 2,380 if there is a clear bullish reversal signal.
Stop Loss: Below 2,370.
Take Profit: Initial target around 2,402 to 2,403.65.
Key Indicators and Confirmation
Volume: Look for increased volume at the support/resistance levels to confirm the entry.
Candlestick Patterns: Wait for strong reversal patterns like engulfing patterns, pin bars, or hammer/shooting star.
Conclusion
Best Entry for Bears: Around 2,402 to 2,403.65 (Resistance).
Best Entry for Bulls: Around 2,377.45 to 2,380 (Support), but this is riskier due to the current bearish trend.
Gold Price Set to Explode! Here’s What You Need to Watch Today!Hey Traders, welcome back to my channel! 🚀
Today, we're diving deep into the latest XAUUSD analysis, and trust me, you don't want to miss this one. With gold prices poised for a significant move, understanding these key levels could make all the difference in your trading strategy.
Let's get started with the 1-hour chart (shown below). 📊
Chart 1: XAUUSD 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis (July 21, 2024)
Key Observations:
Daily Bull Flag Formation:
The chart highlights a daily bull flag pattern, which indicates a continuation pattern following a strong uptrend. On the daily TF sometimes this can take a bit longer to see due to how big this flag is on the (LTF)
The price has been consolidating within this flag formation.
Reversal Structure (Lower High - LH):
There is a reversal structure where the price made a lower high (LH), suggesting a potential bearish reversal in the short term.
Structure LTF (Lower Time Frame):
The price structure on the lower time frame indicates an area where price could pull back and reject off of this area indicating the continuation of the Overall move.
The second way this could play off of this area is we could get a clear impulsive move above this structure and then a rejection looking for higher moves in the Shorter Time Frame.
15-Minute Time Frame:
The 15-minute time frame shows a detailed view of the consolidation and break down from the flag formation. where you could see how close we are to the LQZ shown on the 1HR
1HR Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
Identified at 2,390.966, this zone may act as a significant support area and also our first Take Profit we gave last week.
4HR Liquidity Zone:
Marked at 2,349.179, another major support area that aligns with the daily LQZ. If price end up breaking the 1HR LQZ impulsively then we could look for this area as Take Profit and then once we get down to this area we could potentially see a pullback.
Daily LQZ:
The daily liquidity zone is at 2,286.809, a crucial support level for the longer-term perspective.
Potential Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
The price could bounce off the 1HR LQZ and continue the pullback on shorter time frame to the structure indicated as Lower Time Frame Structure. indicated by the Yellow path.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation
The price may break below the 1HR LQZ and head towards the 4HR and daily LQZs. indicated by the Green path. In this situation we would need to see a clear break below the 1HR LQZ then start to form some type of bearish pattern to show the continuation that could come.
Scenario 3: Reversal to Upside
After testing the support levels, the price could reverse and start a new uptrend, indicated by the orange path. We would need to see a clear break above the structure indicated by the box. This way we could see that on the Shorter Time frame of things we could get a deeper pull back.
Recommendations:
Watch for Reactions at Support Levels:
Monitor the price action around the 1HR, 4HR, and daily LQZs for potential entry points.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for breakouts above the recent highs and breakdowns below the key support levels.
Manage Risk:
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-losses below support levels and taking profits at resistance levels.
what's next?the 64k liquidity didn't manage to hold the price and with the MT. Gox news i expect more down trend to come if 60k level gets broken . I'm more bearish now even in the case of a minor retracement it is more safe to go short as you see on the chart and the possible moves that im anticipating. this scenario is voided if the price manages to print a strong daily candle above 64500 .
possible targets are 59500 and 57500 and in the worst case scenario the 52k liquidity level .
Comprehensive GBPUSD Analysis Ahead of UK General ElectionThis is a comprehensive analysis of the GBPUSD ahead of the UK General Election scheduled for Thursday, 4th July 2024. The chart has been marked to highlight key levels (Decision-Making Points) on the weekly, daily, and H4 timeframes. Below is a summary based on the price analysis:
Weekly: Strong Bearish
The wave structure on the weekly chart indicates a bearish expectation.
Daily: Bearish Wave Structure
The daily chart shows a second bearish wave structure with a lower low.
H4: Bearish Wave Structure with Pullback
The H4 chart has completed a bearish wave structure and shows a valid pullback.
H1: Bearish Momentum
This morning, a momentum low was made, and the current pullback aligns with the second bearish wave structure.
BTC USD: TRAPS ARE EMINENT~! BUT NOT WITH US!!!BTC USDT
Bullish Sentiment
a. BULLISH Back to 67.7K to get out (LAST CHANCE BEFORE WE KISS NEUTRAL AND GREED METER GOODBYE)
b. BULLISH to repect MA and Trendline retracement.
c. Shortterm Bullish to BULL trap and feed bears!
Bearish Sentiment
a. MStrat just bought; money for sharks and scalpers.
b. Increasing interest to short the market due to inflated balloon of longs.
c. Sharp knife drop eminent once we receive a capitulating news somewhere 66 67 and 68k at least
d. This knife drop will give you 3 candles signal in 1D tf. and a clear patterns in 4hr down to 15hr tf.
e. It will fail to reclaim a higher price than 68.8k body close. 69K is too funny to reclaim especially with a strong candle close in weekly. No one can predict that if that happens.
media.discordapp.net
EURUSD Cutting-Edge Analysis? like a "loot button" ))))Hi guys. Let me share some thoughts on the prospects of the EURUSD pair
Retail's been building up long positions and cutting short ones, which suggests a strong bearish sentiment (think "sell when everyone's buying").
The same bearish mood is lurking in the options market, where folks are aggressively trading "naked shorts" and combinations. However, we should note that volatility has spiked to this year's max—these bursts often trigger "stoppies" or short-term corrections, instead of following the main trend.
Visually, the "longs" have been punished, and now the market's favoring the bears. Interestingly, the highest concentration of bears is after the close of a bearish candle—remember your tech analysis books, that's a "candle with a big body and almost no shadows"—a 100% trigger!
I hope this summary increase your trading edge!