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Bearishmomentum

BTCUSD: Sell Off Slows At Key Inflection Point?BTCUSD update: The 9208 support level is still in play as price action unfolds as a spinning top formation (at the moment). It is too early to call this a bullish reversal, but price is in a high probability area for such a scenario. If the market produces a spinning top like the one visible at the moment, it will then complete an inside bar formation. Candlestick patterns alone can appear anywhere and often do not offer any special information about the balance of power going on inside the order flow that shapes the candle by the time it closes. It is the location that makes the formation more actionable and in this case we are at such a location. As I wrote about in my previous report, the 9208 level is the previous swing low, it is slightly below the 9604 level which was a minor .382 support. As long as price stays above this general area, it is indicating strength. By staying above 9208, the market is maintaining a broader higher low formation and is consolidating on a larger degree. This can even be considered a larger Wave 2 formation if it does not fall apart. The 10288 level is the minor .382 of the recent bearish swing and IF price can close above it, that would be a confirmation that the next bullish swing is more likely in progress. Keep in mind, what I just wrote is one scenario out of many. Another scenario is price can continue to sell further into the reversal zone which is contained by the 8659 support boundary. This is often where traders get faked into selling longs or worse, sucked into a short position. Can it break lower and keep going, sure, but I believe that to be a less likely scenario because of the overall bullish bias in this market. In summary, managing a position or timing a swing trade using a chart is about recognizing the meaning of a chart or candlestick pattern in relation to the context of the environment it is appearing within. Price at the moment is still in an area where there is a higher probability that a bullish reversal unfolds. Knowing exactly what that looks like, or know exactly when to take action is a function of experience. Just because I describe a scenario does not mean it will happen, it describes what I want the market to show me if I am to do anything further with the position that I have. I define my own rules that determine how I make decisions, and then I let the market prove itself, or not. By doing this, I am letting the market lead, I am not forcing my own ideas upon it. Opportunities often materialize during the less exciting market environments where the herd gets bored and loses interest. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BTCUSD: Watching For Buyers At 9280 Support?BTCUSD: Bearish momentum is in play now that the previous bullish trend line and 10754 support have been broken with conviction. This bearish scenario is still limited by the structure that this market is within which offers two specific levels to watch for a reversal. This kind of move scares people which is good for others who want to buy at better prices. In my previous report I wrote about possible strength hidden near the double top. I did not write that this market was strong.In fact I wrote about letting the market show its hand, and that this bearish scenario was possible IF the market broke below 10754. Letting the market prove itself costs money, because it means you have to give it room to breath. If you are the type of trader that can't afford to let the market breath, or playing too close to the vest, you are going to have a much tougher time participating in the favorable market moves as well. Now that we have a scared crowd, the question is where are they going to get shaken out, in other words, where are the extremely prices relative to the current structure in place? The double top that is now confirmed is a bearish formation, and it implies further weakness UNTIL another signal or formation negates it. The first step to anticipating this type of price action is to first locate where it is most likely to happen. 9280 is the swing low that has potential to attract buyers. As I write this, price is moving toward this level without much hesitation, but remember this large bearish candle still has plenty of time to close. It is the close that matters more than where price is intra candle. The second level to watch is the 8659 extreme support boundary. Anywhere between the 9280 low and this extreme level is where new selling enters the market (break out traders) and where scared money often gets shaken out. This is the high probability reversal area, where I want to be prepared for a reversal signal to add to my long position. In summary, even though the immediate momentum is bearish, that does not mean the long term outlook has changed. The broad double top is in play, until it gets cancelled out. Minor sell offs like the one occurring at the moment are normal and healthy, no matter what the hype-sters are saying. As long as the broader outlook and premise are still intact, bearish activtiy such as this is more likely to lead to a lower risk buying opportunity, which will not be so obvious on a chart. Can the market collapse altogether? Sure, anything can happen, but I am willing to bet that prices will be higher in the long run. Part of positioning yourself for a broader move is to know where the prices are with the greatest likelihood of reversal, from there is it a matter of waiting for the market to prove itself, and once it can, you have to be able to take the risk in an environment of imperfect information. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Impulse Still Intact? Watch For Break Of 10256.BTCUSD update: Price action is still being lead by bearish momentum, but the range of the most recent candles are tightening. Even though this may not appear as anything unusual, because of where it is occurring, we can get an idea of what is likely to happen next. In terms of the wave count, and impulse structure, the Wave 1 high was 9074, and so far the current Wave 4 low is 9280 which means no over lap. As long as Wave 4 does not go into the area of Wave 1, the transition to Wave 5 is still very reasonable, especially since price is not much lower than the 9604 support level (.382 of recent bullish structure). Buying into this type of price action in anticipation of the bullish reversal is aggressive, especially since there are no confirmations of momentum changing, only a tightening range which just acts as a heads up. The more conservative play is to wait for a decisive break and close above 10256 minor resistance level (.382 of current bearish swing). This level adjusts as price action pushes lows and serves as a gauge to determine when momentum is much more favorable for longs. IF the current bearish momentum persists, and price pushes into the Wave 1 area, the impulse wave will be negated and I will view this market as being within a broader consolidation, which is not to be mistaken for a bearish condition. As long as price does not push new lows (below 6K) I will be looking for reversal patterns at the predetermined support levels to add to my long. The consolidation premise helps me to adjust my near term profit targets lower to the 11Ks which keeps my expectations within the boundaries of the market structure instead of optimistic targets based on feelings. In the broader consolidation scenario, I want to see how price behaves within the 8171 to 7239 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). This is a predetermined support that over laps the 8171 to 4983 major support zone that is the .618 area relative to the entire bullish structure of this market. In range bound markets, broader supports AND resistances tend to hold and I will look to capitalize on that if it unfolds this way. This price action is NOT enough to change my over all outlook to bearish. In summary, price is still in a good position to form a higher low and rally to the 13Ks. Whether you are position trading or swing trading, you must always be aware of where price is on the road map and what to anticipate if the condition changes. Less experienced traders get stuck on a "one scenario" idea, and get bent out of shape when the market does not comply. This focus on being "right" is irrelevant. Timing any financial market requires that we make decisions and take risks in the face of limited information. The only way to thrive in this type of environment is by learning to accept new information and adjust to it which forces us to accept that the market is always "right". The best we can do is measure, evaluate, compare and then decide if the market is in line with our criteria, enough to justify taking a risk, or not. This is why it is so important to follow your OWN criteria and use outside analysis to supplement your own, not to replace it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BTCUSD: Lower Prices Likely? Unless Reversal Pattern Appears.BTCUSD update: 10429 minor resistance has held and price is now retesting the 9600 support. Unless this market can show a reversal formation on this time frame, price is likely to push lower. Like I highlighted in my previous report, the lone bullish candle (that at the time of writing was a spinning top but closed stronger), was never able to close above the 10429 resistance (.382 of current bearish swing). Closing above that level is the signal that I require to confirm that bullish momentum is back. The 9604 level (.382 of current bullish swing) and convenient location for a Wave 4 bottom is being tested again. One bullish reversal formation that I would like to see is the failed low in this area. That is when price goes slightly lower than the previous close and then closes strong. In this case, IF this scenario were to unfold, the next candle should be a pin bar, or engulfing candle. If this occurs I would consider adding to my position. What if you took the aggressive long swing trade that I described in my previous report? It is possible you have been stopped out if you used the 9600 level as your reference point. Remember swing trades and position trades are not the same. They each operate on different time horizons and carry different risks. People that trade smaller time horizons often take on larger positions faster and is why a stop must be used in order to control the increased risk. Position trades are accumulated over time and are more in line with principles of longer term investing. This means numerous small positions add up to an aggregate position with an average price. My risk is controlled through strategic sizing rather than a stop which allows the bigger picture to play out and not get kicked out of a position too early. The risk in this type of trade can be bigger, especially if the overall outlook or premise changes. I understand and accept these risks. What about the Wave 4 bottom? The current support area is a convenient place for a Wave 4 to Wave 5 transition to take place, but does not mean it will. Typically, wave 4's are tricky and can include numerous false starts. Keep in mind as long as the low of Wave 4 does not over lap with the high of Wave 1, the bullish impulse wave is still intact (which means there is plenty of room for a minor double bottom or failed low formation). IF price action over laps with the highs of Wave 1, then the impulse would be negated and the market would be signalling more of a range bound condition rather than a trending one. In summary, as long as there is no reversal pattern, it is reasonable to expect price to push into the low 9Ks or even retest the 8174 to 7230 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). Before I add to my position trade, I would like to see a solid form of bullish confirmation such as a double bottom or higher low off of the current level. Unless I see that, I will just sit on what I have and wait. As a trader or investor, you must always be prepared for anything because nothing is certain in any financial market. If this market falls apart, I can handle it because I am sized appropriately to my risk tolerance. If you can't handle it, that means you are in too big and lack a well defined plan. I cannot emphasize enough that if you cannot handle losses, then you are in the wrong game. The ability to embrace risk is what facilitates rational position management and trade criteria no matter what time horizon you are participating in. The inability to lose is what facilitates fear, and scared money never wins. When it comes to timing financial markets there are countless pieces of information to consider and compare, and it can be confusing to say the least. To help clear this confusion, begin with broader time horizons and a focus on risk. Participation may be much less eventful, but the outcome will be more in line with best practices which often lead to more positive outcomes. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
ETHUSD: Weaker Than The Rest? Watch 824 Support.ETHUSD update: Price action has been under performing the BTC market in terms of the recent bullish move. This market did not break its overall bearish trend line, and has formed a minor lower high at the 955 level. This means short term bearish momentum is in effect which decreases the likelihood of the 824 support holding. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. As BTC and LTC showed some considerable bullish structures in their respective movements, this market has not. The 1004 to 1114 resistance level (.618 of recent bearish structure) has never been compromised, and the bearish trend line that was established during the fourth week of Jan is also still intact. On top of that, a new minor lower high at 955 lead to the bullish trend line break while price is now testing the 824 level which is the .382 support of the recent bullish swing. These observations are all signs of short term weakness and this bearish momentum can persist until a reversal structure unfolds. At the moment, price is within the 872 to 739 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure) which is a convenient area for such a reversal, but until it appears, I would hold off on any new long positions. A break of the 824 level, and this market is more likely to retest the 739 support zone boundary. Again the key to using these levels is what to reasonably anticipate. The type of momentum that is taking this market lower needs to be counter acted with structure like a mini double bottom or higher low. A simple candle reversal will not be enough because there are too many bearish signals in play. Do not be confused by the different magnitudes. It is possible to have short term bearish momentum within a longer term bullish structure. If you are looking to build a long position in this market, the objective is to wait until price action realigns with the bigger picture, and at the moment it is in a convenient location to do that. My concern with the bigger picture is the 973 lower high which can lead to a larger magnitude lower low. I am not saying it will happen, but because of this structure, there is an increased chance that the 670 level or lower can be retested. In summary, interpreting the price action is not the same as reacting to it. I am using these bearish observations to better determine how to position myself for a position trade long, especially since I do not short these markets. Compared to the other major coins, this market is acting weaker and for that reason, I will require much more validation before taking a position. The predetermined levels and areas offer price locations to anticipate bullish reversals, but there is no guarantee that they will appear. By having a flexible mind set, I can acknowledge the immediate market intent while waiting for it to unfold in the way that conforms to my position trade entry criteria. If it never meets my criteria, I simply sit it out. I always talk about buying weakness, which you can do aggressively or conservatively and I make this decision based on market conditions. If price is aggressively selling into a reversal zone, I will be more aggressive and buy right into it with a small position and wait for stability before building the rest of the position. If price is selling in an orderly fashion like it is at the moment, I would rather be much more conservative and wait for the momentum to show clear signs of change. There is no "right" way to do this, it all depends on your general outlook, your plan, your risk tolerance and the time horizon of the position you are looking to put on. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Beginning Of Consolidation Or Next Bear Move?ETHUSD update: The shallow higher low structure across the coins is lacking follow through that used to be much more common in these markets months earlier. Is this the beginning of the next bearish leg? Or is the higher low consolidating instead? It is important to understand that after the type of sell off that occurred recently, markets often don't just reverse back up in an instant. Many of the participants that were buying fearlessly months earlier are now not so fearless. New participants who are entering the market can also see how large and fast a correction can be and are cautious. This sentiment is often reflected in the news and hype outlets that these participants often react to. What typically follows a period of highs or a dramatic correction is consolidation. The market needs to prove that it is stable which in this case would mean failure to make new lows, and secondly, there needs to be a string of bullish catalysts that get the hype machine going again so that the herd reacts by buying. In this market, the key signs of strength to watch for are: A retest of the 778 higher low. This can unfold in the form of a failed low, meaning price touches the 739 lower boundary of the current support zone and holds by printing a common reversal pattern like a bullish pin bar. A break of the 921 resistance level which is related to the old support/new resistance concept and also a .382 resistance of the recent bearish swing. The break and close above this level will confirm the higher likelihood of a bullish continuation structure. An extending triangle formation over the next few days which demonstrates a lack of selling in my opinion especially if this occurs within the 872 to 739 support zone (.618 area relevant to recent bullish structure). Can't this formation also be considered a lower high which is a sign of weakness? It can be, but typically weakness does not waste time. Often selling unfolds much faster than buying in financial markets in general. (It will take a week to go up 100 points and then give it back in 2 days). So as long as price is holding rather than pushing lows, it is less likely to be a lower high, especially since this consolidation is occurring within a major support area. In summary, which direction the market chooses is up to the market. The best we can do is interpret the price action and measure where it is more likely to go, and adjust as new information becomes available. Charts and chart patterns do not move markets, they only serve as a reflection of order flow. Since history repeats itself and markets trend, it is possible to gain some insight into the immediate intentions of the herd and that is what TA helps us do. Good TA is not trading, it is a visual guide that can help us make trading decisions that are more in line with market intentions. Trading is about putting capital to work in an a way that will generate profit over some period of time. Your time horizon determines what information carries more weight when using TA. I have been bullish in these markets because long term fundamentals have not changed. It is a just a matter of waiting for the technical aspect of the market to realign on the time horizon I am trading and that is the position trade horizon. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
BTCUSD: Poised For Retrace. Back To 7Ks? Or New Low?BTCUSD update: 8427 resistance decisively broken, so where is the steep rally? A retest of supports is necessary to "prove" that the bears are no longer in control. At the moment, a shooting star candle formation is unfolding just after pushing the 8427 level that I have been writing about. And if this candle closes in this configuration, it is a bearish sign. Keep in mind this period has at least 10 more hours before the candle is official. The close will more than likely determine if this market is going to retest a lower level, or continue the initial rally leg that has been building since the Senate hearings on Tuesday. One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that markets trend. Trends occur on every time frame and carry different weights. A 1 minute trend is much less significant than a 4 Hour trend, etc. Over the previous month, the intermediate trend has been bearish, while the bigger picture is still bullish. This can be confusing and is why it is so important to know what time frame you are looking to operate on before taking any trade. In order for this intermediate bearish trend to break, the market needs to fail to make a new low and instead, take out a previous peak. This is a process, not a single event. 8171 to 4983 is a major support area (.618 of entire bullish structure) but does not guarantee a reversal will materialize. One scenario that will signal the return of strength before it is obvious is what I call the broader higher low formation. "Broader" means it must happen on a large time frame like a daily or 12 hour. A convenient support area for this higher low is the 7149 to 6677 minor support zone (.618 are of current bullish swing). If price retraces from the current pin bar, I will be watching this minor support zone for bullish reversal patterns. Since the 8427 resistance was compromised, I am anticipating that there is a greater chance the minor support holds. A bullish reversal off of this zone should then lead to a higher high if the market is changing direction. Keep in mind, a broader higher low does not necessarily lead to a new bullish trend. This market may become more range bound before the bigger picture reasserts itself. The focus is to observe the signs and anticipate the most immediate move relative to your time frame and adjust accordingly, not to "predict" the broader moves of the market and feel good about being "right". In summary, this market is not out of the clear yet. IF the minor support in the high 6Ks is broken, this market may retest lows. IF the support holds, then anticipate the next resistance to be compromised and adjust accordingly. I am playing the bigger picture and in a situation like this, my choices are to add to my position, decrease my position, or do nothing. Since I am sticking to my bigger picture plan, I will not be shaken by a new low, I will just hold on to what I have and wait until the market shows a more supportive environment. This is not that difficult to do because my position is not margin based. I compare it to holding physical gold as opposed to paper gold (futures). IF the higher low forms, I will be looking to add once more, and from there only add on resistance break outs. My decisions are a function of the time frame that I am operating on, and is key to avoiding confusion and sticking with the plan. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Fear At Lows Same As Greed At Highs. Stick To Plan.BTCUSD update: New low of 6K reached as these markets go into the Senate hearings today. From a technical perspective, price is in the middle of the largest support zone of this market without any supportive structure in sight. In this report I will review what this market has to show in order to confirm stability and more importantly how to manage emotions during extreme conditions. The 8171 to 4983 is the largest magnitude .618 support zone for this market. This is also the area that offers the greatest probability as far as a general market reversal is concerned, the question is how do you position yourself for it? With the kind of momentum that is driving price, the best thing to do in my opinion is to wait for larger formations to unfold over time before continuing to build longer time horizon positions. Often, the first leg of a major reversal is extremely sharp, which needs to be followed by a shallow pullback and then break of a previous peak. In other instances, this market has been forming the attempt at a reversal, but no previous peaks have been taken out. Buying into lows like the kind apparent at the moment offers great prices, but as you can see the risk is usually high so this type of positioning is aggressive. While waiting for a solid reversal formation over time will require a ton of patience. Patience means watching price spike higher quickly and then waiting a number of days for it to prove that it has found strength by retracing to a higher low, then going higher and taking out a previous resistance. A key level to watch to help confirm that momentum has changed to bullish on the short term, is a close above 8427 which is the .382 resistance of the current bearish swing. That level serves as the target for the initial reversal swing. I look to incorporate both situations into my strategy which means there is pain involved. I do not mind being aggressive as long as I temper that buying with careful sizing. The worst thing you can do at this point is flip and become a bear in an area where price has a greater chance of reversing. This is a buy or stay out type of situation, it all depends on how much you are willing to risk. In summary, all strategy aside, the most important thing you can do in a situation like this is stay focused and follow your plan. If you have lost a lot more than you imagined, the best thing you can do is turn that loss into a lesson and gain experience from it, otherwise it is a complete loss. Trading is not a game of matching wits, intelligence or "being right", it is a game of controlling risk. Losing, no matter how uncomfortable it is, is just as much a part of the game as winning and we either embrace it and turn it into experience, or we can give up and let it win. Being fearful at lows is no different than being euphoric at highs. Just like I wrote back in December, markets do not move in a straight line and the same applies here as well. Extreme conditions offer opportunities for those willing to accept the risk. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
38
LTCUSD: Price Holds Up In Bearish Environment?LTCUSD update: Bearish momentum continues to hold these markets back, while this market is the only one showing a potential higher low formation. In a situation like this, it is best to be more conservative until solid reversals materialize, especially if you are long. I have been building a position in BTC in this environment, positioning for the broader reversal process which has not materialized yet. The reason why I do not get shaken out is because I was careful enough to keep my sizing manageable. This is why I kept emphasizing avoiding buying on margin. Overreaction is commonplace for all of these markets, and depending on the time frame you chose to participate, you have to stick to the plan. I chose to buy into to the bigger picture which looks to capitalize on broad moves, but you run the risk of situations like this. Right now, in terms of formations, this is the only market showing any signs of a reversal formation within a major support zone. I want to highlight it because this is the look that you want to see in the other markets before a broad reversal in momentum is more likely. In this case, you have the low established by the pin bar, followed by the sharp bullish candle and now the retest of the low all happening within the 186 to 138 support zone (.618 area of broad bullish structure) . On top of that, the pin bar low rejected the 118 reversal zone boundary which is what happens more often than not in these extreme price areas. IF this market is going to prove that momentum is changing back to bullish and the next leg higher is in play, it needs to establish a higher low formation, like it is trying to do at the moment or retest the 118 low and form a double bottom (failed low). The more conservative play is to wait for the bullish confirmation of price pushing back above the 186 upper boundary of the support zone. The mistake you want to avoid is to become bearish on lows. Keep in mind even if there is range bound price action above the 100 level, this entire formation is still one broad higher low compared to where price was months ago. It is very easy to be consumed by hype and exaggeration. In summary, there are plenty of good prices to buy across all of these markets. The key is not to buy too much or if you want to be more conservative, wait for confirmation of momentum change which means you will give up the better prices for a more favorable environment. Since my broader outlook has not changed, I look to capitalize on both situations. I made some aggressive purchases of BTC, and before I continue to buy any other coin, I will wait for the bullish momentum confirmations. This way, if the market continues to correct, my loss is controlled and manageable. Choosing to be conservative or aggressive is a function of your personality, risk tolerance and experience. I tell people, these markets are not like stocks, they are risky and if you cannot embrace the risk, then you are in the wrong markets. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
ETHUSD: Major Support Zone Ahead Of The Hearings?ETHUSD update: Judging by the bigger picture, this market has not sold off as dramatically as the others. In fact, price has rejected the 872 to 739 support zone twice, leaving behind long wicks in both instances. Although this market can retest lower prices, it is in a relatively better position to rally. In this report I will highlight the possibilities both bullish and bearish. First of all, these markets are extremely emotional. The majority of participants in my opinion are not institutional or professional which means when the sentiment is bullish, it is very bullish, and when bearish, it is very bearish. It also means that these markets are highly susceptible to news and drama. Right now the big problem on the horizon is the Senate hearings this week. The heads of the SEC and CFTC are most likely not going to say anything positive about these markets, but no matter what, they are not going to stop the changes that are taking place from an economic and technological perspective. Governments are in place to control, especially the money supply. The U.S. government is infamous for devaluing the dollar for a whole host of reasons that are often at the expense of the little guy. One of the main reasons BTC was created was to give back some control to the little guy. With that being said, events such as the hearing, and other regulatory actions only serve to scare the market temporarily, not drive it to become obsolete. If anything, regulation will bring stability to this market over the long run. Stability is good for long term investors and institutions, but minimizes opportunities for short term speculators, especially inexperienced ones. I do not write about market philosophy often, because it is more of a matter of opinion, but in this case I think it helps to shed light on why I choose to be generally bullish in the face of bearish momentum. This is big picture positioning, not day trading. In the case of this market, price is now testing the 872 to 739 support zone which is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. Price has rejected this zone twice which adds to its significance as a large magnitude support. Currently there is also an inside bar (previous candle) which can serve as a long trigger if the high 999 is taken out. Generally in an area like this I am looking for bullish reversal patterns. They can come in many forms with the higher low and failed low being the more obvious. IF a reversal patterns appears, it is a good place to consider swing trade or position trade longs. The bullish perspective is in anticipation of a reversal, and not reacting when price is on the move higher. What about the bearish momentum that is still in play? IF I was day trading these markets, and was able to short, I would be looking to capitalize on lower prices, but since I am not, I can only offer an idea of how extreme price can get before momentum becomes exhausted. Current bearish momentum can take prices as low as 670 which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 770 low. IF this market is going to fail at the lows, that is the highest probability area where this fake can occur. In summary, your trade strategy begins with a perspective which is a function of the time horizon you choose. There is no one size fits all way to trade, it all depends on what what kind of risks you are willing to take, and how much capital you are working with. Reacting to short term movements without any consideration of where price action is occurring in terms of the bigger picture sets you up to be on the wrong side when the bigger picture reasserts itself. The current area in this market is a high probability reversal area, and one where I look for a larger magnitude reversal rather than a high risk short. I look to buy supports and sell resistances, not the other way around, and we are in a support area. It is just a matter of waiting for the right pattern to appear. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
BTC - 1 - 2 - 3 - HEAVY RAIN !! LOST 10K, ADVISED ON JAN 27THHi Everyone, Actually, I have been saying BTC would fall since DEC 6TH 2017, just check my previous charts on BTC. Well, finally 10k support has just been broken, and price has lost MA 1000. Next stop should be 8700. It should struggle for a while until it goes for the final target: 6.999. About my Strategy: All the strategies that I tried learning around gave me at most 60% of profit probability; to me, that is almost a gamble, or flipping a coin - as 50% - 50% chance. So this is why I am trying to come up with a new way of trading perspective that could really tell us what is going to happen, and that could gives us more then 60%. The main idea here is to trying to understand what the heck is going on in this crazy market, from a high altitude point of view, inside the waves we can never see where the sea will lead the price. For those who don't know, I am trying to use a hole new way of trading perspective: "The Moving Water" that keeps working on my charts posted, but I am still improving it as we speak, so let me answer somethings a lot of people are questioning: Yes - For now I am still testing and improving this new trading perspective. No - I still don't have a blog or website, but keep following and later on I will open up for those who want to learn it. No - "THE MOVING WATER" are not the moving averages, it is so more complex then theses. They are useful, but, actually, most of the time, they fail to give you the right signal, so it is necessary to combine so many other concepts, and time analysis together to find out where the price will go. First Free Tip Proven: ALL MAs, SUPPORTs, RESISTANCEs: are strong until they brake, as you can see on this update on the 10K that was a support. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT. ALL IN.
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
BTCUSD: Major Support Cleared, But Consider Bigger Picture.BTCUSD update: Dramatic new lows break below the 8656 boundary of the broader bullish support that has been in place for some time. Sure it looks ugly for longs, but do not panic. The next support area is 8171 to 4983, but this does not mean we are going that low. Here are a few things to keep in mind as this sell off unfolds. Sizing. Now you know why when I take position trades, I take them small, that and not using margin is what protects your sanity in times like this. Getting big too early puts you at the mercy of the market. We are now below the 10988 to 8656 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure), but there is another wide zone just below. The 8171 to 4983 is the .618 area of the entire structure from sub 100 low to the 20K high. In terms of Elliott Wave, this is a good place for Wave 2 to bottom out and that is what we are seeing here, a broad wave 2. So at this point, if you bought in at earlier prices and are still holding, this is where your careful sizing keeps you in play. I am just going to hold what I have and not going to add until stability reappears. These are great prices IF you have been flat, because believe it or not, the risk is lowest at these levels relative to potential reward. In order to continue building my position, I now need to see stability return in the form of a higher low on a large time frame like a 12 HR or above. If you are out looking to get in, this is a good time to start very small. This means if you were planning to invest 1K, only buy $100 worth, or 10% of your target size. IF and when the market firms up, you have 9 more units to buy which will occur at different prices as the market cooperates. This keeps your risk low and allows you to position yourself for the next leg up. What about shorts? In my opinion opening new shorts now is no different than buying at the top. When a market looks the most obvious, that is the time to do the opposite. Even leading up to this situation, if I was able to short, I would only consider such positions on day trading time frames because the longer term risk is too high. Unless you are looking to take quick profits, I would avoid it all together. Keep in mind, perspective is a big part of successful trading. From the beginning of my trading plan in this market, I bought small and waited. I did not place any stops, but I used my fractional size to protect me from situations like this. I am always considering these scenarios, even though I cannot determine if they will actually unfold, but I can prepare in case they do and that is why I always emphasize a focus on risk first, not rewards. Everyone is an expert in vertical markets, but it is these conditions that truly separate the professionals from the herd. In summary, perspective is the key here. My perspective is bullish, even in the face of this selling because that is the type of position I have taken from the beginning. If I was day trading these markets it would be a different story, but I stick to my plan.The difference between this and being stubborn is the long term outlook. As long as this technology continues changing the world, I want to be invested in the long run, IF that changes, then the premise behind my position will be negated and that is when changes must be made. I plan to buy more after the market finds stability which is not a single event, but more of a process that can take days to unfold. It is at these extreme points where you must be the most aware of your emotions and not letting them get the best of you. Have a plan with a relevant basis and stick to it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
52
LTCUSD: Pushing Lows. Looking To Buy?LTCUSD update: Bearish momentum leads price deeper into the major support zone of 186 to 138 area. In this report I want to highlight two levels that offer new buying opportunities IF a reversal pattern materializes in the near future. Buying opportunities? Why would I be looking to buy in a "bear market" ? The reason is the time horizon of the trade I am taking, just like with BTC. The herd gets fixated on the small time frame price action and misses out on WHERE we are on the bigger picture. This is no different than being extremely bullish when the market is making new highs. Position trading requires the ability to put prices into perspective and also consider general fundamentals which in my opinion are still bullish. Referring to Elliott Wave rules, Wave 2 is not supposed to retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. If we consider that simple wave count here, this "bear market" as the herd calls it, is most likely a bottom of a broad Wave 2. Price even has room to test lower lows and still offer potential for adding to a position trade long. To put prices into bigger picture perspective, the 186 to 138 support zone is the .618 area of the broad bullish swing. Within this zone is the 165 to 153 minor .618 support that price is testing at the moment. This area is the first place to consider longs upon a bullish reversal pattern. The Second price to consider is the 118 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 137 low. This area also happens to be just under the lower boundary of the broad descending wedge formation. This area is a good place to watch for extreme price spikes and bullish reversal patterns as well. Why buy into a weak market? I look to buy supports and sell resistances, it is a best practice. I am not moved by the hype and noise that the herd often over reacts to, especially at turning points. Instead of focusing on the immediate bearish momentum and accompanying drama, I focus on the fact that price is still within the vicinity of large magnitude supports which for me is a place to buy, not sell. Keep in mind, I am not day trading this market. As a day trader, shorts make more sense. Where the less experienced go wrong is they do not know how to form reasonable expectations for shorter time horizon strategies and let greed determine where profits should be taken, rather than probabilities. In summary, there are two ways to go about positioning for a broader bullish move that has not materialized yet. Buying small amounts and averaging into the lows, lightly and carefully so if price collapses altogether, the loss will be limited. Or the more conservative way which is WAIT for bullish signs off the major support area and then start buying. The second way gives up better prices for a more comfortable experience (momentum going your way and less pain). It is important to remember position trading requires longer term perspective, careful sizing and exclusion of margin in my opinion. Just like in BTC, as long as these markets and in an expanding economic space, it is just a matter of time before a string of bullish catalysts grab hold and the next bullish wave unfolds. I want to be positioned for that scenario, not chasing it. The ability to do this effectively is to buy when everyone is selling, and as long as we maintain the current supports, or test slightly lower, I am looking to continue to build a long position. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
BTCUSD: Bears Lack Conviction. Support Zone Still In Play?BTCUSD update: Price pushes into middle of broader support zone and is held up at the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In situations like this, recognizing the magnitude of the larger time frame levels allows for more effective decision making. Small time frames look bearish. The move off of the minor resistance zone (11871 to 12316) looks dramatic compared to recent price action. Meanwhile price is not really going anywhere significant. For 15 days, this market has made little progress in either direction but gives the illusion that it is. Welcome to a more balanced market. This price action is for the realm of the day trader. Small movements, reversals at minor levels and no big picture progress. In order to capitalize effectively on this price action, a great deal of skill is required. I am not day trading these markets, and I refuse to trade them of margin which means I cannot short them. So I base my perspective on the big picture and look to position myself to capitalize on the broader bullish move IF it returns. Here is what I see: Price is gyrating between 10988 and 8656 (.618 area of broader bullish structure). It is also staying above the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In addition to that, based on the recent swing low established at 9989, there is now another reversal zone boundary at 9295. Within this area there are also a series of bullish pin bars that also happen to be within a minor support zone 10534 to 9989 (.618 area of recent bullish swing). As bearish as the most recent swing looks, (especially on smaller time frames) until price can work its way below all of this supportive structure, I am staying long and only looking to add. Do not get your perspectives mixed up. I keep getting messages from people asking me why I am bullish when this market is so bearish. The time frames that look so bearish (1 hour or lower) do not carry much weight for my trading time horizon. I am looking for the broader move, and based on the current price action, we are just testing lows of a large magnitude support. Do not over react to dramatic movements often accompanied by extreme hype. Zoom out and start asking questions like: Is price breaking major supports? Is it making new lows with conviction? And most important: Have any major long term fundamentals changed? If the answer is no, like in this case in my opinion, then it becomes easier to see how these lows are a welcome buying opportunity for longer time horizon strategies like swing and position trades. In summary, before making judgements or decisions, you must first have a point of reference. For me, I am staying focused on the big picture because that is the time horizon I am positioned on. Having this perspective allows me to see through the immediate noise that many get caught up in. At this point, I am waiting for candlestick reversal formations or price patterns to develop in this area in order for me to buy more. IF the market keeps selling (below 8656) then I will not take any action and hold what I have. The only reason why this works is because I am not using margin and my sizing is carefully calculated. Like I have written in previous reports, it is just a matter of bullish catalysts taking hold and driving the next leg. See beyond the herd, do not be part of it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
70
BTCUSD: Going To New Lows? Or Great Place To Buy More?BTCUSD update: Price could not push through minor resistance of the 11871 to 12316 area and appears to be getting weaker once again following the establishment of yet another lower high. The price action is weak, BUT it must be considered in light of its location within the bigger picture. As long as it stays within this generally supportive area, minor pullbacks are potential buying opportunities from the larger time frame perspective. When utilizing TA, it is not just about evaluating the most current price action that is unfolding for patterns and levels. It is also about considering that price action in light of the bigger picture. Many less experienced traders forget that part, and get sucked into misleading signals as a result. The other factor that must always be considered before assembling a scenario for a trade is the time horizon, day? swing? position trade? because that also affects what information carries more weight. At the moment, the small picture shows a lower high off of a minor resistance area of 11871 to 12316 (.618 of recent bearish swing) and a possible triangle break to the bearish side. Isn't this a short setup? Sure, IF you are day trading, because this setup is occurring right into a major support zone that has not been compromised yet. I am observing this market from the position trade perspective which means I am interested in broader structures and levels, like the 10534 to 8656 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). For me, the fact that price is still fluctuating in this area and not pushing below levels such as 9683 (written about in previous reports) means that it is not as weak as the immediate price action implies. For this reason, I am anticipating a bullish reversal within the support zone and a break of the 11871 to 12316 area rather than a retest of 8K. Now keep in mind, I could be wrong. I have been doing this long enough to know that the market is always right. The best I can do is interpret price action, make comparisons, develop scenarios and then see which path the market chooses. My thoughts, feelings and opinions are irrelevant. This is why managing risk is more important than being "right" as so many less experienced participants naturally value more. So with that being said, IF this market does not show any reversal signs and pushes below the 8656 area with conviction, I will just hold my position trade and wait until the market finds stability before doing anything else. Since I am in this for the bigger picture, my carefully managed size keeps me out of trouble. In summary, react less and compare more. Know what time frame you are looking to take risk on and weight information from there. For me, the big picture is in a descending wedge and forming a broad higher low, it is just a matter of catalyst before the next rally structure begins. I watched this market go to 1K back in 2013, and then pullback for 2 YEARS before it entered into the bull market that we saw more recently. As long as the general fundamentals of this space stay intact, I prefer to buy more, especially upon bullish reversal patterns within broad support zones. This is my perspective because I am in a position trade which aims to capture much broader market moves. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
BTCUSD: Eyeing Lower Levels For Bear Fake?BTCUSD update; Bearish candle leads this market right back into the middle of the broader support zone of the 10534 to 8656 area. This area is overlapped by minor support and reversal zone boundaries. The key to timing this is waiting for the supportive price action to return. First, I am long and intend to stay that way because that is part of my plan. This is not a swing trade, but instead a position trade which I have written about in previous reports. This means I manage the position without stops or targets, but it also means that I control risk through careful sizing. Since I am relatively small, I am not emotional to adverse moves, especially if price spikes which often looks dramatic and shakes people out. Positions like this require a belief in the big picture and no positions taken on margin. By being 1:1 with the market, I can average into the position further, in a fractional and strategic way. As I wrote about in previous reports, things change. Previous bullish signs can appear, like they have, but no follow through like everyone has become conditioned to expect after trading in "easy", euphoric vertical markets. Lack of follow through is typical of a range bound consolidating market. In order for the next rally to take this market out of this condition, a bullish catalyst of some kind needs to materialize. In situations like this, it is important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. In this scenario, it is possible for price to retest the low which I wrote about in my previous report and described it as the "failed low" formation. This is where price can go slightly lower, and then fake out. Often this is accompanied by a pin bar or engulfing candle. There is no guarantee that this WILL happen, it is a matter of waiting to see IF it happens. What we have at the moment are great prices for bigger picture longs, but momentum has shifted back to bearish. Keep in mind a retest of the low can go as low as the 8656 area which is the lower boundary of the broader .618 support zone that has been holding price up for a number of days. Until momentum shifts back to bullish, one way to participate in a market like this is to place limit orders deep outside the market to try and take advantage of any price spikes. This must be done small and carefully in order to mitigate risk in case of a deeper correction. In summary, anticipating market moves means positioning yourself when things don't look obvious. As long as price can manage to gyrate within the current support zone, I will look to add to my long when signs of bullish momentum return. If price collapses, I simply do nothing except look to add on an extreme price spike. Reacting to the bearish momentum by going short is a high risk game just like buying near the top when the market is making relentless highs, this works for short term strategies such as day trading which is not what I am employing in this market. By the time bullish momentum appears and takes the market much higer, that will be an opportunity to start locking in some profits as all the reactionary traders enter the market. Back in December when the futures started trading, I wrote about anticipating "balance" which means tighter and more realistic ranges which is exactly what we are seeing. The levels are still attractive, and the bigger picture outlook is still intact, it is just a matter of a new short term driver or catalyst to reverse this market for a broader move higher. Positioning for such moves requires a lot of patience and ability to keep risk under control which I do by careful sizing. Questions and comments welcome. Special announcement: Today at 1PM EST I am going to appear on Nasdaq's Twitter feed in a live interview. Now, keep in mind, the first time I did this interview, they told me this information and changed it when I got there, and it did not come out until the next day. So IF they follow through with their schedule, I should be on today: www.twitter.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
45
BTCUSD: Test Of Low In Sight But Bears Beware.BTCUSD update: Lower high increases the possibility of the failed low attempt around the 9683 level. To break this bearish bias, price needs to push above the 12346 minor resistance zone. Even though a higher low formation has been established above the 9989 area, that does not guarantee we will get the new rally back to 15K or 16K. It increases the chances UNLESS the market changes which we have no control over. As a price action trader I do not fight or insist or assert my ego, I simply adjust. The current bearish pin bar that is forming indicates such a change and points to the possibility of the bearish momentum leading this market toward retesting the lows once again. In order for this scenario to follow through, the bearish pin bar needs to close in the current configuration and the next candle needs to break the current candle low and close weak as well. IF this sequence occurs, then the retest of the lows becomes much more likely. What is the failed low formation? As I wrote in my previous report, the failed low is when price goes slightly lower (often into a reversal zone) and then proceeds to reverse dramatically. Often a pin bar will appear in these type of situations. Failed lows look extremely bearish at the bottom and are usually accompanied by a lot of hype, drama and bearish news. Trading failed lows often provides very attractive reward/risk since the best prices become available. The key to watch for is the reversal candle formation within the reversal zone which in this case can be between the 9683 area and the 8656 boundary. IF the reversal candle never appears (and closes) then that is a sign to steer clear because it will indicate bearish momentum is taking prices to much lower levels. I am still long from an average price of about the mid 12Ks and do not intend to exit. I write about the bearish possibilities because they are important to be aware of for risk management purposes but if the reversal candle that I am anticipating appears, I will simply buy more. What makes me so bullish in such a situation is the key support area and repetitive buying patterns. I am evaluating and positioning myself for a broader rally that may take days or weeks to unfold in this market. It is just a matter of a bullish catalyst taking the market by surprise that will spark such a move. In summary, being able to anticipate what the market is likely to do next provides a way to constantly adjust risk and expectations. Bullish momentum came into the market, but has stalled for whatever reason but do not lose sight of the bigger picture. Lower highs often lead to lower lows BUT there is no guarantee that this market will push lows here especially in light of being within a relevant support zone. Any minor higher low or immediate reversal off of a lower low (failed low formation) and I am looking to add to my position trade long. IF price breaks below dramatically, then I just sit on my position and wait for renewed signs of stability and evaluate from there. IF instead price never pulls back and pushes through the minor resistance, then we are back in the bullish momentum scenario. Trading and investing effectively starts with a plan, and that plan begins with an evaluation process that considers multiple scenarios. Either the market confirms or it doesn't and based on your risk tolerance you should know ahead of time what action you are going to take. Not reaction. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33
BTCUSD: Key Support Zone Reached. Where Is The Long Trigger?BTCUSD: Price fluctuating inside a major support zone and hesitating within a minor overlapping support area. This area presents very attractive reward/risk for longs, but can it break lower? Big difference from the vertical markets of a month earlier, but this is reality. This is more in line with how markets trade. The good news is price is within a projected support area with a lot of overlapping levels. Even though it is has not reversed up strongly, it still offers potential since the chances of a bullish reversal are generally high. In my previous report, I wrote about the possible inside bar that was forming and the potential bullish trigger which never materialized. Price broke lower instead which brings it into a very attractive area for ME. The whole point of a trigger is to act as a filter and minimize premature entries. And that is exactly what happened here if you were disciplined enough to wait for the close of the inside bar and outcome. Now price is doing it again. Another inside bar potentially forming, two long tails (IF the current candle closes in this configuration) and all of this is happening within the projected support zone of 10988 to 9989 which is the minor .618 support relative to the recent bullish swing. The long signal would be IF the current candle closes as an inside bar, and the high of the next candle breaks above the current candle high. IF that scenario takes place, again it would serve as an entry for both swing and position trades long because of where this is taking place in terms of the bigger picture (large magnitude support). The more aggressive trade is to start buying early, anticipating that the current levels will hold and probabilities will play out. This scenario is RISKIER because price has not fully reversed yet, and you are betting that it will because of the probability of its general location. And as far as risk goes, for a swing trade, the 9950s serve as the best point of reference. Just because the general probability of reversal is high does not guarantee that it will happen. This is why if you prefer more stability and confirmation that momentum is in your favor, you WAIT for the bullish trigger. Which also means you will not get the better prices that are available now. It is a trade off and you must decide which scenario is more in line with YOUR risk tolerance. Anything is possible and price can also retest the 9683 low and possibly lower since the support zone boundary is at 8656. IF this happens I would be looking for the failed low formation to add to my long position as well. In summary, I am very interested in adding to my position trade at these levels. Since momentum is still bearish, I will take a slightly more conservative route and place a buy stop above the market at the 10980 level. I will not get the best price, but I don't mind giving that up in order to have momentum on my side. This helps to minimize a premature entry as well. If price spikes into the low 9Ks I will also consider adding to my position which is aggressive, but I will temper the risk by keeping my size relatively small. When markets look their worst, that is often a good time to buy which is counter to the herd mentality. The key is to do it in a way where risk is carefully considered and entry scenarios thought out and prepared for in advance and then waiting for confirmation. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Lower High Can Lead Back To 872 Area?ETHUSD update: Lower high established at the 1160 level which is not far from the 1216 to 1304 resistance zone. This formation is appearing across the main coins and signals further short term weakness. This is the trading environment as I described weeks earlier. Vertical markets breed bad habits and now is when the bad habits become expensive. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, buying into the now minor peak had to be done responsibly and for me that means with fractional sizing and no margin. I also wrote that I prefer to wait for the retest of the supports which is now underway across the board. In this market, a retest of relevant support levels is IF price can make its way back into the 872 to 739 area (.618 support zone relevant to recent bullish structure). That would produce a broad double bottom or possibly a failed low formation and would be a good location to consider a swing trade long according to my plan. The extreme price that I would be open to buying into is the 670 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 770 low. This zone is based on a proportion of the most recent bullish swing. IF price pulls back that far (anything can happen),I will be looking for reversal candles such as a pin bar or engulfing pattern to enter into a position trade long. I like this area the most because it represents an extreme price which is often where the herd is pushed out of longs or emotionally seduced into shorts. It is also where risk on the long side is the lowest relative to recent price structure. Speaking of shorts, selling into a lower high is not a bad idea, because reward and risk can be clearly quantified. Overall 1160 is the level to define risk from while the nearest target is 872. The current price is not the best entry since reward/risk is around 1:1 or less, but a minor retrace higher can present an opportunity on the swing trade time frame. I do NOT short these markets because I do not use margin, and I intend to participate on the bigger picture which is bullish. For those of you who are comfortable with this side of the market, you must not hesitate to take profits if you have the opportunity because the general environment is bullish and shorts will most likely get squeezed fast. I mention the short side because being aware of both sides of a market is part of having perspective. In summary, lower highs often lead to lower lows and within the context of a bullish bigger picture, a conflicting situation like this can be confusing. This is why a well defined plan and flexibility allow for effective trading around the confusion while the reactionary herd is still looking for the uncommon and unrealistic vertical market environment. My plan, just like in the other markets, is to participate on the long side which is in line with the bigger picture. As this bearish retrace may present a short term opportunity for some, I am waiting for the broader trend to reassert itself and I have levels to anticipate where that change will most likely take place. Either the market confirms my scenario, or I don't participate it is that simple. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: New Lows Into Support Zone. Attractive Investment.ETHUSD update: Dramatic retrace takes this market back to the 872 upper boundary of a larger magnitude support zone much faster than expected. Price is now in an area that offers better opportunity on the long side, but price stability needs to present itself. My long at 1311 got stopped out at 1243 which protected me from 400 more points of pain. What you are seeing here is REALITY. Markets retrace and when the pullbacks are dramatic, it shakes out the weak hands who have no structure, trading plan or risk management. I got stopped out, but like I explained in that report, the stop was wide, so you adjust for that in your sizing. Also the wave count, (as much as the critics keep criticizing TA) served as a helpful hint that a broader correction was likely. I kept writing about that also. The question now is: what to do from here? Is the market going back to 500? What about all the hype and drama? First, this retrace is normal and healthy. As a short term speculator, I don't care what triggered it because the wave count showed it was coming. Now my focus is how to capitalize on the members of the herd who are getting pushed out of their positions by their own ignorance. And that means I am looking to get long again, but only when the signs of stability reappear at the appropriate levels. The first level to note is the 984 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone projected from the 1073 low. The fact that price has broken below with such conviction is a bearish sign. It points to the next support zone as a more likely place for the reversal process to unfold which puts the following point into perspective. The 872 to 739 support zone is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. Price has reacted to the 872 level which was projected weeks ago. Since the momentum is still bearish, it is reasonable for price to fall into this zone before finding stability as well which can come in the form of a double bottom or higher low formation. The reversal process from here is likely to take time and when the market finally starts working its way higher, a reasonable target to LOCK in some profits is projected around the 1216 to 1304 resistance zone which is NOW the .618 area relevant to the current bearish swing. This process can take a few days to a week to unfold. Also for the more aggressive, and longer time horizon investors, this is not a bad area to start accumulating some fractional positions. Without using margin, and placing limit order below the market without any stops, gives you the opportunity to get great prices while keeping your risk low. This averaging technique is effective when you do not use margin and control risk through sizing. As the market goes lower which can easily happen, you only feel a fraction of the pain, rather than magnified pain that comes with the use of margin. As this market finds stability over time, you keep adding small amounts. As long as your long term outlook is bullish, and you manage your risk with careful sizing, you can build a core position while fear forces the herd to unload their coins. So you are looking for an average price, rather than buying it all at one price (high risk). It's like a sale at Macy's. In summary, markets correct. It is a normal process that occurs over and over again and it offers opportunity to those who understand the herd mentality and do not get sucked into the ignorance and hype which are rampant in these markets especially. There are no short term trade setups at the moment, but in terms of the bigger picture, this retrace can be considered a general buying opportunity in my opinion. This is why structuring your trading and investment process is so important. Without a framework to guide your decisions, you are more likely to react rather than anticipate.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTCUSD: Weak Hands Being Shaken Out. Consider Longs.BTCUSD update: Price retests 11600 range low area in a dramatic bearish move, which in my opinion is an attractive area to look for position trade longs because this is where the weak hands are shaken out. The 11600 area is a key level because it has been bought up from that point since mid December which makes it a significant range low. It is also just above the 10988 to 8656 support zone which is the .618 area relative to the recent broader bullish structure measured from the 5400 low. What makes this area attractive for position trade longs? A position trade is more like an investment. It looks to capitalize on the broader trend which in these markets is still bullish. When a short term reaction such as a panic spike occurs, and it takes price into extreme levels, this is often where the inexperienced investors get pushed out of their positions for a number of reasons. There are two ways to go about getting into a position in a situation like this. First, you can just place a limit order at a lower price such as 11500 and see if the bearish momentum continues to new extreme lows. The more extreme the push, the more of a chance it reverses back up. The second thing to do which is more conservative is wait for some price stability to return which can come in the form of a higher low. Waiting for stability means you will not get the best price, but momentum will be more favorable. As far as my plan, I still have a position from 13150 that I plan to hold. I am also looking at this panic as an opportunity to add, but since momentum is extreme at the moment, I want to see if price can get inside the 10968 to 8656 zone and add more around there. If I was not long from 13150, I would look to initiate a position around current levels because in the long term, this is a buying opportunity. In summary, now you know why I always write about locking in some profits at highs. Also be careful not to get caught up in all the hype and extreme predictions. When buying into a sell off, it has to be done with carefully thought out position sizing and NO margin. Anything is possible in these markets, and although I do not believe it will retrace back to 5K, you want to keep risk under control just in case, and fractional sizing is the best tool to achieve that kind of control. Conditions like this offer great prices for the longer term investor which is a function of the larger magnitude support levels that price is testing at the moment. Remember, when markets look their worst, that is often the best time to buy, but it has to be done in a way that always accounts for the risk. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
69