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Bearishmomentum

ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Fear Leads To Price Spike.ETHUSD Update: Price went sub 200 only to push back up to 250 in a matter of hours, along with all the coin markets. Now you know why I suggested considering a small position as an investment. The bearish momentum is not over yet, and now these markets need time to build up some supportive structures again so I am not anticipating new highs any time soon. The initial spike back up is an interesting piece of information. BTC went below 3k only to spike back up to 3500. This type of price action often signals the beginning of a change in momentum, but not enough evidence to start opening swing trade longs. If you read my previous report, I wrote that investing small wasn't a bad idea because there was extreme fear in the market. Sure it got slightly more extreme, but if you believe in the technology (which has not changed), then investing when everyone is hating these coins is the best time. As I wrote, there is no way of pin pointing the bottom. It is a function of understanding your risk and starting small (without leverage). I don't think these markets are out of the clear yet and still have potential to test lows again. Just remember investing is for long term and NOT a swing trade strategy. At this point I am watching for evidence of stability (for a swing trade) and that would be in the form of a higher low at the new minor support at the 220 to 210 area within the broader 230 to 190 area. A failed low here would offer a short term buying opportunity providing that BTC is also stable. Keep in mind since this market has revisited this broader support area which is the .618 of the previous bullish swing, the broader price action will most likely be range bound and I plan to use very conservative targets for any trades that I enter. The new resistance area is the 271 to 291 zone which is related to the .618 of the overall bearish swing. This market needs to clear that in order to show that there is any possibility of retesting the mid to high 300s. So this resistance will serve as a profit target (if the market offers that opportunity). If the market retests this resistance sooner (it is almost there) this area will serve as a level for a possible lower high which can lead to new lows if BTC falls apart again. We just have to wait and see. As far as buying now, the risk is too high. In order to know if a bottom is truly in place, price needs to retest the lows. That is why this price spike, as impressive as it is, is not the time to get long. The retest may lead to new lows, or it may be shallow, there is no way to know until after it unfolds. This is why it is so important to define your scenarios ahead of time so that you have something to measure against instead of being sucked into the herd mentality. In summary, investing and trading are more about psychology than anything else. Price action analysis helps to uncover clues about the crowd mentality so that probabilities and risk can be better determined before taking a position. The purpose of my analysis is to capitalize on short term price fluctuations and I have to repeat this because I realize many new traders do not understand the difference between what I am writing about and buying to hold for the long term. My plan at the moment is to wait for the next retrace and if the market revisits the 220 area, then I evaluate for buy signals for a swing trade. Otherwise I stay flat. There will be plenty of opportunities to get long. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
45
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Lower Low Into Major Support.ETHUSD Update: 230 support area has been reached while all the coin markets sell off. This is actually a great time to start considering accumulating small positions for the long term even while there are no signs of buyers. Momentum is bearish and price has been making lower lows along with the rest of the markets. BTC is clearly leading the way. You can blame it on the news, or whatever other catalyst you like, the important thing is that price is beginning to revisit attractive levels. This is where the people who were way too bullish at 380 get pushed out of there positions, especially the ones who used leverage and have no idea how that works. A few weeks ago it was hard to imagine this market testing the 230s, but as you can see, anything is possible and why I always focus on risk and not reward. The 230 support zone is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing and is a wide area with the bottom boundary at 196. At the moment, since there is no sign of stability in any of these markets, it is possible to test that level. And if you zoom out further and look at the entire price history on a weekly chart, you will see that the .618 relative to the overall initial wave is the 162 to 94 area. I am not "predicting" that this is the next support, but it does provide some perspective in the sense that there is room for this market to test lower prices and it would still be normal. The fact that this market broke the 296 level and has not found stability, followed by retesting the current support, signals that this market is more likely to see more of a range bound environment in the near term. This means short term positions should have conservative profit targets, like the low 300s, etc. This market no longer has the structure in place to see 400+ in the near term. The market now needs time to stabilize and consolidate. When markets are full of fear, as long as they maintain their fundamental value (in this case the technology hasn't changed), the opportunity to start accumulating a small position is not unreasonable. This is not a technical play, or a short term trade. It is buy some for the long term. Months and years not days and weeks. Even though there is no technical bottom in place, and there is still room to go lower, as long as you believe in their future, then this situation as a whole is a buying opportunity. The key is starting small. For example if you buy 1 coin at 230, and it goes to 130 in the next week, is that really going to hurt you? Also you have to keep the this process and strategy separate from your shorter term plays. It is more of an investment. Remember, the goal is to build onto the position as the market stabilizes. By starting small, you are limiting your risk and will have the ability to take pain. If you start big, or get too big too fast, or use leverage, you will get yourself into trouble quickly. In order for this market to show any sign of stability, the first thing that I need to see is a break above the 293 level. This is the .382 of the entire bearish swing and an overlap of the .618 of the most recent bearish swing. IF price pushes above that level, that would be the first step to looking for more signs, like a higher low. I must emphasize this level is not a buy trigger. Just a point of reference that will signal the bearish momentum is losing steam. Until that happens, any minor retrace is more likely to unfold as a lower high. In summary, do not get sucked into the hype. As long as these coins maintain their purpose, and they are not rendered obsolete by some new technology, you have to see beyond all the drama and think against the crowd, ESPECIALLY this crowd. I am staying out in terms of swing trades until these markets can stabilize and when they do, price action will provide the right clues. And now is the time to think about a core position, not at 350. You will not get the bottom. Remember: small. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lower Prices.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum continues as price revisits the 260 support level. I have been stopped out of my long, and will now wait until the market can show new signs of stability. At the moment, the next area of support is the 230 zone which is very possible until the momentum changes. I have been writing about the 296, 260 and 230 levels for some time now. Now that 260 has been tested, that is a clear sign the bears are in control which can take prices back to the 230 area as well. The BTCUSD chart is also very similar and still has room to see lower prices. Even though I have been stopped out, I am still bullish and now waiting until stability returns to these markets. If this is a Wave 2 of a larger 3, it can retrace quite a bit before seeing a significant reversal. Keep in mind I do not know how low these markets will go, and I am flexible enough to get back in if I see the right conditions. The kind of price action I am waiting for requires 2 conditions. First a resistance needs to be taken out. These usually come in the form of a lower highs that get broken and as of right now, the 282 and 296 levels (old support, new resistance) will have to be broken. Second, after price breaks the resistance, it will be a matter of waiting for a higher low or failed low and that is the point when I can evaluate risk for a new position. When the market shows signs of continuous bullish momentum, there will be plenty of opportunity to add to the position. So my plan is as follows: I will be watching the 260 area on the 4 hour time frame for a break of a lower high resistance followed by a reversal structure like a higher low or double bottom. If these appear, I will consider putting on another small position (25% of my normal beginning size) so that if I am stopped out again, the loss is proportionally small. If price falls through 260, then I will be watching the 230 area for the same kind of price action. Just to be clear, this process can take days if not longer. Also at the moment, 310 which is the .382 of the overall bearish swing is a key level for defining momentum and as long as price stays below this level, I will expect any bullish swings to be limited in proportion until price action proves otherwise. I have been getting all kinds of PMs asking me about news, and the China situation. Again the news just pushes prices faster. Corrections are normal and required in order to shake out the weak hands and provide new opportunities. In terms of the big picture, any major sell off is a buying opportunity for long term positions in my opinion. In summary, as bearish momentum maintains its hold on all of these markets, the lower support levels like the 230 area now become the focus. The key to speculating in any market successfully is being prepared and defining a scenario ahead of time which is not a prediction. If the market presents the planned scenario then great, you follow the plan and if it doesn't, you stay out. Many people still do not understand that there is a high degree of randomness to price action which is the reason why no one will be right 100% of the time and also why we are always evaluating probabilities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Stability And Trigger.ETHUSD Update: Stability forming now that two higher lows are in place at the 267 and 276 levels. This allows for a clear definition of risk and a scenario that can lead to a new long position. At the 267 level there is a bounce that retraces back to 276. This formation is a broad higher low which indicates strength returning to this market. The bearish momentum has failed to push new lows. Plus there is a smaller higher low at the 287 level which signals further stability because higher lows often lead to? Higher highs. Two formations like these within the 296 support level which I have been writing about for a few reports now, are the signs of stability I have been patiently waiting for. If you observe the ETHBTC market which has been a great source for additional clues, it also has a clear higher low formation in place which adds to the stability argument even more. What is most important about these structures besides where they appearing is that fact that the market has offered clear reference points to define risk from: The 267, 276 and 287 lows. With this information I can determine if a long swing trade is worth taking. The next question is where is the entry and the target? A break above 310 is a new long signal because that indicates bullish momentum returning. A long position at 310 with a stop in the mid 280s and a target in the mid 340s offers just over 1:1 reward/risk (and that is being extremely conservative). If there is any positive catalyst along the way, that can push prices further, but for now I am going to use the 350 area as the initial target. The beauty of this kind of trigger is if price never breaks 310, then that means bullish momentum is still limited and there is no trade and no risk taken. IF instead price decides to break below the key support levels relative to these higher low structures, like 287 or 276, then that would signal bearish momentum is still present and I would wait and see where the market stabilizes again before any further evaluation. Also a break below the 267 low will negate the possibilities of the present stability completely, and open the door to the 230 support zone. This is why it is very important not to take a position too early and wait for a trigger. (Unless you enjoy pain). Another point I want to make is this: my previous reports have been bearish, and now this one is much more bullish. I do not base my observations on feelings, or my opinion, or what anyone says or writes. I base my outlook on what clues the MARKET provides and I am flexible enough to recognize new information while not getting stuck on ANY opinions. The market doesn't care what I think. So I don't, I "listen" instead. In summary, this is the kind of price action that my plan forces me to WAIT for before taking a new position after a sell off. It is very challenging because it requires a ton of patience to wait for (it has been a number of days). The only way to achieve this kind of patience is with a well defined plan, and not getting sucked in by the hype, the price noise and your own impulses, fears, and bias. If the context of these market conditions were more bullish, (like they used to be) then the entry criteria would be less restrictive so this is why context is so important for the analytical elements that I employ. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
54
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 260 Support Test?ETHUSD Update: 280 support revisited while bearish momentum continues to push prices lower. Even though this correction still has room to test even lower prices, it is normal and will offer a better opportunity to buy, just not yet. As I wrote about a few reports ago, 320 was a significant break and maybe now you can see why. If you look at a weekly chart, it is basically the low of the previous week's Shooting Star like candle. If you read my reports at that time, I describe the bearishness of the signal, and why I would not even think about buying. The current weekly candle closes today and if it closes the way it looks now which is near the low, especially with no wick, then this signals lower prices are still more likely. At the moment I am watching for a retest of the 260 support to see if price can stabilize. A break below opens the possibility to retest the 230 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent bullish structure. What adds to this argument further is the lower high structure at 340 (which I talked about in previous reports), the wave count, and the ETHBTC chart which offered plenty of warning ahead of this bearish momentum. In terms of Elliott Wave, I am counting the previous bullish 5 wave structure as a 1 of a larger 3. The current corrective legs are part of the subdegree Wave 2 which implies that a larger Wave 3 is likely to follow once this correction completes. Buying too early in anticipation of subdegree Wave 3 of 3 is extremely risky because Wave 2's can be deep corrections. I would rather wait until the bottom is in place and buy at slightly higher prices because at least I will be able to evaluate my risk more effectively than I can at the moment. Also pay attention to the ETHBTC market because it is testing the .06562 triple bottom area. If that level breaks, that will also add to the bearish momentum that can take this market to the lower supports. In summary, my plan is to let the bearish momentum play out and wait for stability at one of the lower support levels before I do anything else. Right now in order for me to get long, I need to see bullish momentum return which means price needs to show evidence of a reversal ALONG WITH a change in momentum. If price revisits 260 or lower, that doesn't mean I will get that low price. When momentum changes, prices will have to be higher in order to confirm the buyers are back. Keep in mind these evaluations are short term in scope and if you plan to hold for more than a few weeks, or months, then you can start building a position at any low, just make sure to have a very well defined investment plan and don't get too big too fast. The bullish momentum will return and when it does, the market will provide the proof. Until then, I wait. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Bearish Momentum Continuation.ETHUSD Update: Price action is consolidating within the 309 to 290 area and triangles like these are typically continuation patterns. Even though smaller time frames are showing some signs of reversal, the overall momentum is still bearish.' When markets are in clear bullish trends, it is much easier to decide when to buy, but when the environment becomes conflicted and noisy, this is when you really need to understand price action. These environments are full of false signals and very easy to buy too early, especially if you have a limited understanding of TA. Price action in this market has been behaving as anticipated around the projected support levels, but the reason why I won't start buying is because momentum has not changed. Lower highs often lead to lower lows and in the face of a small triangle, I would rather stay out until there is clear evidence of bullish momentum. Remember a reversal does not guarantee price will go back up. The reversal is the first step that indicates momentum is in the process of changing. There are bullish reversals present on the 1 hour time frame but since we are facing a lower high, I need more confirmation and that will come in the form of resistance levels breaking. Strength breaks resistance levels and the price points that will confirm that bullish momentum is back is 310 and then the 320 to 330 area which is related to the .618 of the recent bearish swing. IF those levels are taken out, buying on pullbacks will be more reasonable. In fact a break above 330 will confirm the 290 area as a higher low which would signal further strength. Since the market is still showing bearish momentum, the more likely scenario based on the clues on this chart, is a retest of the lower supports that I have been writing about which are the 291 to 282 area and the 260s. A break below 290 will more than likely trigger more selling and IF that happens, I will be watching these supports for stability before doing anything else. In terms of Elliott Wave, this price action can be part of a subdegree Wave 2 of a broader Wave 3 (The previous 5 wave structure was the first wave). Corrective waves can be very confusing and for the sake of simplicity, I am not labeling them, but if this is a Wave 2, it only has two legs in place which means there is a greater chance of one more leg which is Wave C. If this wave unfolds, the 260 level is a very reasonable area for it to complete and there is even a possibility of a revisit to the 230s. If price actually retraces that far, that would be a good buying opportunity, especially for long term holders (Upon validation). In summary, although some bullish signs have appeared at projected levels, bearish momentum is still present and the reason why I will not buy at the moment. The small consolidation, plus the wave count make for a situation that carries too much risk for any new long position. If the market proves otherwise, then breaks above 310 and 330 will signal that change and I will even consider buying a small position at that point. I am not trying to get the best price, I am trying to get in line with the momentum so that chances are the trade will go the right way with the least amount of pain. The market will decide and then I will adjust to the new information. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching For Reversals.ETHUSD Update: The 320 break signals the return of bearish momentum and confirms the lower high formation as I described in my previous report. ETHBTC also offered a heads up with it's resistance failure that I mentioned as well. The question now is can this market find support at the projected levels and form a broader higher low? Compared to my average number of views, my previous report was way below but for those of you who took the time to read it, it described what is happening now. 309 was the first support level to watch for stability, and price fell through like it wasn't even there. And this is exactly why I do not place buy orders at levels, because they are random until the market proves that there is a reason to buy there. The validation section of my trading plan is what helps me filter out this type of situation. The next area is the 296 support which which is more in play at the moment. As I have written about previously this is the .382 of the entire bullish swing and since it is a proportion of such a large price move, price action around this level will be very noisy just like it was the first time it tested this area (and went below 270). And that adds some weight to the 292 to 281 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent minor bullish swing. Just below that is the 260 support that I explained previously also. The recent 4 hour candle is large and even though there is some retrace (wick) I will take that as a clue that this market is more likely to test the lower supports. Large candles are a sign of strong momentum so it is reasonable to expect the next few sessions to be bearish at least (unless there is a dramatic recovery during the next candle). Other factors that support this bearish argument are the lower high confirmation at 340, AND the failed high on the ETHBTC chart. As I also mentioned in my previous report, in order for me to buy, I need to see a failed low, or higher low and it would be helpful if the market offered that structure at one of the projected support levels. IF the market can stabilize in the 292 to 281 zone, then that would signal more of a range bound situation. If I can get long somewhere in the lower part of the range, I will be targeting the 325 area at least initially. In particular I will be watching the price action for a higher low or double bottom on a smaller time frame and will be considering the mid 250s for stop placement. Price structures of this kind will negate the bearish momentum that is present at the moment. Otherwise I stay out. I do not know if any relevant news came out, and the reason why I don't check or write about news is because price tells me everything I need to know. Price action made me very cautious about the previous up move and I reiterated it over and over. If the market wants to sell, it will sell. And again this price action was setting up before any news. News only serves as a catalyst and helps the market move in the direction of it's intention faster. One of the basic foundations of technical analysis is that the market discounts everything and that includes news. In summary, the bearish momentum that was building up in the price action played out to a point. The confirmed lower high opens the possibility of testing the lower support levels that I wrote about previously. Keep in mind, the overall trend is still bullish, this market is just going through a normal correction and upon stabilization will offer another buying opportunity at attractive reward to risk ratios. Remember that the support levels are proportionate to the swings that they measure, and they provide reference points to evaluate for particular price action (like a double bottom). They are not buy prices to just set orders for. The best thing you can learn from my analysis is how to anticipate instead of react, because without that ability, you will always be chasing. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
ETHUSD Levels And Perspective: Consolidation Into Support Zone.ETHUSD Update: 207 resistance that I reported yesterday clearly held and selling momentum ensued. Bears are still in control for the moment. And with the additional price structure in place, there is more information to consider. Overall, this market is consolidating which is noted by the converging trend lines. No surprise since there is a ton of uncertainty going into these next two weeks. A thread on Reddit explained the "User Activated Soft Fork" (UASF) which I thought was supposed to happen on 8/1 (BIP 148) is actually happening on 7/23, along with some other confusing details (I don't even know if this information is reliable). This is a perfect example why fundamentals are NOT good for short term trading. What this information does tell me is how confused and uncertain these markets are which is in line with the ongoing consolidation (technicals don't lie). This also tells me not to hold anything into those dates and to let the market work itself out. So from here I will consider day trade opportunities, or plan to exit any possible swing trades before the 23rd. (Unless I can find more reliable information). Since the selling momentum continued off of 207, there is a new minor overhead resistance in the 203 area that also needs to be compromised before I can start looking to buy. These levels can be used for day trade targets or shorts if you are so inclined. Also at the moment, price is at the 193 level which was a previous resistance (inversion) and has acted as a support previously. This level and the 180 to 190 range just below (which relates to a .618 Fib retracement of the broader structure) still serve as a location for bullish reversals. I prefer chart pattern reversals on this time frame like the examples that appear to the left of the chart (see double bottom). I would like to see one of these appear at the current level or in the range below. That is the first step, then I need to see a break of 207 which will signal buying momentum has returned, and finally I will be evaluating the subsequent retrace for a trade entry. That is my plan in a nutshell. 180, 169 and 160 are my reference points for a stop, but I cannot evaluate risk until my setup appears. In summary, the major trend is still bullish according to price structure, but all these markets are caught in a mud pit of uncertainty. During these consolidations, projecting relevant support and resistance levels is very helpful because they highlight where to expect reversals, and how to navigate a broad range bound market. Since there is no trade setup, my goal for these evaluations is to provide some clarity and perspective. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
USDJPY next to a bearish momentum: SELL 1 week trade timeHi everyone, I was looking at USDJPY this morning and after a technical analyse i got at the conclusion that a bearish momentum is near. I think that looking at 1D chart without any indicator or draw tools would be even enough to understand the near massacre of the bull-minds traders. Anyway i could be wrong... : The market could have a pullback on S3 pp or un S1... this area will be very protected by the buyers... a lot of people will see an opportunity to buy here, hopping in the retrecement and that a bullish trend will start. I have the trendline T1 to protect my trade and also R3 pp ( you can see them on the chart ). Anyway, if i'll a bullish trend starting ( if it's gonna break T1 and after it'll have a test ceiling on the trendline ) i could also change the trade swiping in a long. I hope this is not gonna happen. As i said you first the main points were i could change the position are: 1) test ceiling on T1 2) pullback on S3 pp or S1 ( are quite near, you can see them on the chart also ) This trade is weekly trade ( more or less ) but using this analyse i'll also open Couwntdowns and Binary Options positions. My gains are 90% from this ones but i can't publish the entries and exits of this trades due to the slowly tool that is this idea chat. But, if you're interested in Couwntdowns and BO options or interested in the upgrade of my trade, write me in p.m. without any problem... I would be happy to help you at any question. I hope this trade will help you, Delta B.
Short
by The_Shipwrecked
5