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Bearishmomentum

Bitcoin: 3450 Support And Consolidating The Bottom.Bitcoin update: Price has taken out the recent bullish trend line which points to a higher likelihood of retesting the 3450 area minor support. From a broader perspective, all this market is doing is establishing another consolidation which is a normal part of the bottoming process. As we always remind our followers, tops and bottoms take time to develop. The key to managing risk effectively in these situations is to develop a number of scenarios and then constantly weigh the evidence as one begins to technically materialize. The easiest mistake you can make is to fixate on one single scenario. The appearance of a large bearish candle points to further weakness in terms of momentum. This scenario can lead to the 3450 support test or even a revisit of the 3K psychological support. It is always about “Ifs” not absolutes. IF price tests 3450 and presents a bullish pin bar, then that would be a setup we would consider for a new swing trade long. What if price breaks 3450 without any hesitation and closes the candle on its low? 3K becomes the greater possibility. What if price breaks 3K and closes weak? It can happen, and in such a series of events we have no problem stepping aside and waiting for a more supportive structure to return. Do not lose sight of the bigger picture in the face of a large bearish candle. As long as the 3K area is maintained, that would serve as evidence of a broader consolidation. There are opportunities within sideways markets also, but they require the most patience since they are the most infrequent. The best thing we can see in such a situation is a failed low off the 3K bottom. This is usually when the reaction of the herd becomes extreme, which can be observed by dramatic spikes in short interest. During these periods you will also notice extreme emotional reactions in public forums like this one. In summary, Bitcoin just like any other market is driven by the collective psychology of its most active participants. No one can accurately predict if this market is going much lower or not. Timing these markets effectively has little to do with prediction and everything to do with evaluating how new information is most likely to affect the perception of the herd in the near future. The highest probability setups are the ones where the crowd is faked out and caught on the wrong side. Your time is better spent learning to recognize the clues and then waiting for the evidence to appear, not chasing hype. Let Bitcoin find an appropriate level and then provide a solid reason to justify taking risk. The question is how well can you wait?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
Alibaba is in a clear downtrend. Don't be fooled by perma-bulls.Alibaba is in a clear downward trajectory, and the weekly moving averages would agree with that statement at this time. Currently, price bounced off of a previous zone we saw it wick to back in late October/early November, and price is currently retesting its previous support zone-now-turned resistance around 140. I'm watching the 200 weekly moving average an area for the price to potentially drop down to, and if we continue lower, I'm watching 110, 80-85, 75, and 58 as area's of potential support. As I've said in other posts on different stocks, these short-term rallies/dead-cat bounces are nothing to get caught up with in my opinion. Those perma-bulls on the mainstream media will continue encouraging people to "buy the dip" but to me, that notion is just stupid. We have been on a 10-year bull run and most stocks are extremely over-valued in my opinion and need to correct back down to lower levels. It's basic market cycles ladies and gentlemen. If we manage to get back above (and hold as support) several key moving averages, I will change my stance. For now, I remain bearish . Moving average guide: 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Deftsuo
AMZN bounced the 100 week MA. Strong overhead resistance still.AMZN bounced the 100 weekly moving average and bounced off of a prior support zone we saw it hold back in February and April of 2018. As I highlighted in my previous AMZN post (linked below,) I expected it to come down to the 100 weekly moving average, and that is exactly what it did. However, much like with other stocks, this to me looks like nothing more then a dead-cat bounce. We have strong over-head resistance from previous support zones which should in turn act as new resistance, and we are seeing evidence of that on the Daily chart as the price has failed to climb back above the 1480-1500 level that acted as support for the last 3 months before being broken. We have overhead moving averages on the Daily and on the Weekly chart which will also act as downward pressure. On the RSI, we can see it double-topped back in August, but the price action continued rising indicating a bearish divergence (as shown by the light-blue lines) and we saw the price action start to drop after this occurred. I am watching the 200 weekly moving average as the next area of interest if the price continues down. I will change my bearish stance if the price can get back above (and hold as support) several key moving averages. For now, I remain bearish. Moving average guide: 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red Previous AMZN analysis: -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Deftsuo
Don't be fooled by a dead-cat bounce. More downside possible.APPL got a nice dead-cat bounce off of a prior support zone we saw it hold back in September of 2017, and in February of 2018, and it was fairly close to the 200 weekly moving average. However, we also saw come clear bearish divergence form over the last few months/week (shown by the light-blue lines on the price action and on the RSI); as for the price made an eventual higher-high, but the RSI made a lower-high, indicating the trend (upwards at the time) was weakening, and we saw the price drop dramatically there after. I still think a lot of these stocks are over-valued, and have plenty of room to fall. Ignore the noise from the main stream media and the big-time investment firms that tell you these prices are "deals, steals, bargains, good buys" and whatever other phrases they enjoy throwing at you in a bid to get you to buy something. I will change my stance if we get above (and hold as new support) several key moving averages. If we cannot, then I'm watching for a break below the 200 weekly moving average, and a break below the support zone around 130-135. Overall, I continue to remain bearish. Moving average guide (All in the weekly time-frame for this chart): 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Deftsuo
Facebook broke the 200 weekly MA. More pain to come. Facebook has broken its 200 weekly moving average and could be setup for more downside. Facebook has a small support zone around 115, but I do not think it will hold. I think we could see Facebook come down to the 30-70 dollar range here as this down-trend develops. There really isn't much historical support until then if 115 is broken. What to watch for: -Break of the 115 support zone. -If that occurs, I'll be watching 70, 55, and 30 as possible places for the price to come down to. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Deftsuo
Bitcoin: Bears Are Strong But On Look Out For This Key Reversal?BTCUSD update: With the short term bearish trend line still intact, this market is poised to test lower prices. The next major support area is 3K and until the weakness is absorbed, it is within reason to go even lower. While we maintain our inventory, we continue to avoid any new trades. Momentum continues until evidence appears that proves otherwise. That is the foundation of our decision making process. And there is no evidence in terms of price structure to provide a convincing argument for longs, at least over the near term. Lower highs often lead to lower lows and the next 3K psychological support is still in play. This type of structure is particularly vulnerable to negative news or any other type of dramatic nonsense coming from this space. Which means an over reaction can take price below 3K quickly. So what evidence would point to a more sustainable price recovery? A more obvious sign would be a break of the bearish trend line, followed by a higher low. A less obvious sign would be a failed low which involves price testing the 3250 low and reversing sharply. This would be a double bottom near a major support level. This is where we would consider an aggressive swing trade long, otherwise, there is nothing to do here but watch. If this were any other market, I would be looking for swing trade shorts, but we do not short these markets. Waiting it out is not what most people want to hear, because most people want action. We follow a code of best practices because we are in this for the long run, not for "action". Action is what attracts gamblers, and often they are the ones who provide liquidity for those who can exercise patience. A break of the 3350 level, and the 3250 low will most likely be tested. In summary, Bitcoin and the entire alt space has been beaten up and is not showing any signs of a worthwhile recovery just yet. That doesn't mean it won't change. The key is to let the change happen first. Cheap prices are tempting, but there is still plenty of room for them to get cheaper. A lot of credibility in this space has been compromised thanks to unnecessary mining conflicts, ICO scams and other negative events, but that is the nature of the environment now. All it takes is a spark of positive news like the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and renewed optimism can return just as quickly as it left. Timing markets is all about "IFs" and being prepared for change. Your time is better spent learning how to be flexible, learning how to interpret price action and most importantly learning how to take risks in a structured and responsible way. Chasing profits, seeking precision, or reacting instead of anticipating only keep you on the path to consistent losing. They say trading is 80% psychology and it is true. Performance starts with a mindset, not a chart. What are your best practices?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
Bitcoin: Bottom Is In? These 2 Signs Can Offer Proof.BTCUSD update: Since the dovish FOMC meeting, this market has gone from a low of 3446 to a high of 4415. Which serves as just another example of how sentiment drives price on the short term. Although a 12% move off the low is encouraging, this market has not demonstrated any real change in the momentum on the bigger picture. Yet. The bearish trend line that has recently been established is still in play. As long as this is the case, price still has a good chance of breaking the next support around the 3600 area. IF that happens, 3K will still be a real possibility. Price structure determines our short term outlook, nothing else. And price structure changes. In order to consider any new trades, price needs to do 2 things: 1) Build a bullish structure, 2) Take out the 4650 area. That is what our plan dictates, and it has saved us a ton of money in terms of potential losses as this market sold off. We make it a point to separate our strategies and do not mix long term positions with short term trading. This is why we still carry inventory and have no intention of selling it, especially at the lows. Not using any leverage has been one of the key factors in managing our longer term risk and prevented any margin liquidations that so many had to deal with. Our plan has not changed since this market took out the 4800 support and it is: step aside. It is simple and effective. Reacting, or trying to trade both sides of this market is just not worth the risks. Just ask all those who insisted on staying short below 4K. We do not short these markets, and we even warned those who wanted to about the higher risk they faced. We are open to the possibility of aggressive swing trade longs, but only AFTER price proves itself. Pulling back and forming a higher low is a scenario that is in line with our bullish price structure requirement. Unlike the droves of chart gurus who claw for your attention (just look at all the charts in the comment section), we do not pretend to know the future. We do not make predictions and instead adjust as the market changes. We follow our rules, evaluate price patterns and always manage risk. All the behaviors that do not appeal to the herd. In summary, Bitcoin is not yet showing signs of continuing strength. This can change in the next couple of weeks, BUT until it proves itself there is NOTHING to do here. The bottom may be in, but we will not know until structure provides the evidence. Remember, a top or bottom is not an event, it is a process. Buying low is always a better choice than buying a high, BUT you must always consider: what IF it goes lower? 3450 may be the bottom, but there is NO precision in this game. What if 2K is the bottom? It's not about being right or wrong, it is about how much RISK you can handle. You will get further in this game if you focus on risk management and best practices rather than focusing on lines on a chart, or worse the rewards. Ever notice? The less experienced (especially the marketers) are always pushing: "I'm right", "How much I made", "The RSI", or posting 22 updates in less than 22 hours. If you want to learn how to put your money to work, start by asking yourself one question: "What if I'm wrong?". It all begins there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
47
BTCUSD: 4K Break Points To 3K Support?BTCUSD update: Price breaks 4K which is in line with recently developed structure. Since the 4800 break, we have been staying away from this market as far as any new positions. We have rules and a plan which we are not going to deviate from in reaction to recent price movement. The 4800 area was a major support level that we had been writing about for months. Once that was taken out, Bitcoin has gone on our avoid list. Along with the majority of the alt coins. This means we hold what we have and wait this out. We were very careful when we were accumulating our inventory and we can afford to take the pain. Although we are short term bearish (because we listen to market structure), we are not long term bearish. We got rid of the weakest alts in our portfolio weeks ago, and only hold the most promising. Based on the technical structure at the moment, Bitcoin is still poised to go lower. The 3K area is actually where the next relevant support is located. Will it go there? We don't make predictions, we follow price action. It is possible, but it is also possible that price finds support sooner. The key is to let price prove itself. For us that means bearish trend lines need to be taken out. Until that happens, we will continue to play a strong defense and steer clear of this mess. Thanks to best practices, we stayed away from most alts while Bitcoin was consolidating. As Bitcoin goes lower, the alts will suffer and this was a scenario we did not want to be a part of. As many are now jumping on the short side, we are not about to start. Leverage is something we have been against using in these markets from the beginning and do not intend to start using it now. Our plan is simple, we wait until conditions become more favorable, and only then will we be open to accumulating more. Many people treat these markets like the more traditional stocks or forex. We have always recognized that these markets carry much greater risks partly because of their lack of regulation. This makes them very vulnerable to the games that large players can play. And shaking out the weak in order to buy at the best prices is something they have done for decades in other markets. Many of the techniques that they used are now illegal in traditional markets, but NOT in this market. Collusion, sharing inside information, and forcing margin liquidations are perfectly legal here. That is why we believe this is just one massive shake out over the long run. In summary, the market has revealed its hand. It chose the break the long consolidation it was in and is now in search of a new level. When a trend unfolds, many will come out and make tons of predictions, but they do not know any more than anyone else. Just like all the "experts" who were calling for 30K during the bull market. The key to maneuvering any market successfully is not making predictions, but instead adjusting as the market reveals new information. The market is always right and as a trader or investor, it is our responsibility to listen to it, especially when it changes. Our adjustment is simple: avoid. We are not driven by greed or reacting to emotions and not looking to get short in any way. And next to listening, there comes risk control. We were all about going long above 6K, but we were always cognizant of the possibility that we could be wrong. We wrote it regularly, "anything can happen". Following best practices allowed us to factor the possibility of facing such an adverse environment as we were accumulating inventory. And because of that we can hold. If Bitcoin is going provide value in the future, it will eventually find a support, build a base and gradually develop a much more favorable environment for longs. Now it is just a matter of waiting for the process to play out. There is no need to keep buying into something that has proven weakness. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy when the evidence of broader strength returns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
BTCUSD: New Range Or New Lows?Bitcoin update: Since the sharp sell off a few days ago, price seems to have found some stability. The appearance of two long wicks and inside bars certainly add up to signs of short term strength. It is a good location to cover shorts, or carefully add to long term inventory. The broader structure is now in a much less favorable position for a more significant price recovery any time soon. Although this market is still range bound when viewed from the broader perspective, it still has some room to retest the recent low of 5188. A close below the 5430 area will trigger a momentum continuation pattern toward lower prices. Before you get sucked into the hype and nonsense surrounding this market, keep in mind that the 4900 area is the lower boundary of the largest degree .618 support zone. This zone has been in play since June and still holds. This means, as ugly as the chart may look on smaller time frames, the market in general is still maintaining the price location where a broader reversal is a high probability. On top of that, the most recent sell off was basically triggered by a tweet. A mining dispute that moved the price hundreds of points in about 15 minutes. This type of vulnerability is a risk that is very prevalent in these markets, particularly since there is no regulation. Insiders can use whatever means necessary to push the herd out of positions, or worse lure them into shorts. It is how large players accumulate positions at great prices. They don't buy highs. Fundamentally not much has changed and we remain long term bullish. We have bought into the recent sell off to add to our inventory, but carefully. If price goes lower, we can handle it. We are a strong hand, and if it no longer meets our buying criteria, we will stop buying and just hold. For us, shorting at these levels (even if we could) makes no sense in terms of risk. We keep our long term and short term strategies separate. Since we are playing a strong defense, we will not take just any swing trade long trigger that appears. Short term structure now favors weakness so for us to take a swing trade long, we need to see a particular reversal structure in place. And since it requires the market to make an initial move higher, we will sit it out until it matures into the pattern that fits our more selective criteria. This helps to filter out the noise and fake outs that are highly probable at the current level. In summary, timing markets is about knowing how to adjust more than anything else. We don't operate with an "absolutes" mindset, or the losing mentality which runs rampant in this space. Our long term perspective still stands even in the face of the 6K break. We recognize the opportunity and risks and stick to our plan with our only adjustments being to increase our defensive measures. And for us that means being more selective on the short term, while consolidating our portfolio on the long term. Just like the insiders talked the price lower, they can talk it higher just as fast. You don't have to have a large account to think and maneuver like a large player.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
34
BTCUSD: More No Go? Waiting For These Scenarios.BTCUSD update: The hard money continues. We got stopped out of another swing trade long recently which comes with the territory. And we were making every effort to be selective with our entry criteria. Our strategy is not flawed, it is just not the best one for this type of environment. So what is the more effective way to trade the hard money? Before I answer that, there is one bad habit that develops in these environments that can ruin your account. And that is not respecting the stop. It begins with getting stopped out a few times in a row and then watching the market recover right after getting stopped out. The typical reaction is: remove the stops because they keep generating losses. That's the wrong thing to do because at some point the market is going to break one way or the other. If you are on the wrong side, without a stop, that is where when a small loss becomes a huge loss. You may get away with it a few times, but all it takes is one time to get caught on the wrong side. This bad habit is particular to short term trading strategies. This is why we keep our short term and long term strategies completely separate. We don't use stops for our inventory strategies, instead we depend on careful position sizing and other risk controls. Stops are your best friend in this environment for short term strategies like swing trading. If you are getting stopped out often, it is a matter of questioning and adjusting to the environment. Not jumping to another strategy simply because what worked before is not working now. That is reactive and ineffective. Hard money is another way of describing consolidating markets. Bitcoin is NOT going anywhere right now. These chart gurus who keep making outrageous calls are only looking for attention for marketing purposes and degrading the integrity of this community. Stop taking the bait. Our plan is simple but unpopular: wait for Bitcoin to choose a direction. We are long term bullish so if price breaks below the 5800 area support, we will continue to be defensive and only consider long term inventory strategies. Those that have been following our trades and analysis know that we have always been very clear about not shorting these markets. (There are plenty of other instruments to short). There are two bullish scenarios that we will consider. A clear reversal pattern and setup around the 6250 area (bullish trend line). Or bullish continuation patterns AFTER a decisive close above the 6550 resistance. Otherwise we stay flat in terms of swing trades. The more effective way to trade the current conditions is to wait for longer term levels to be reached and look for inventory. For our inventory, one of the levels we are watching for is 6100. Any extreme range lows will also serve as areas that we will consider for careful accumulation. These types of trades are very infrequent, require tons of patience and a well thought out game plan as far as scenarios go. Consistent reward is the product of taking well thought out risks. In summary, projecting where Bitcoin will be a year from now is nothing more than a call for attention. As the space evolves, the players and motivations change. The best thing you can do is let the market provide evidence. This is a professional's market. The easy money has dried up because easy money comes from the ignorance of the herd, and the herd likes trends. When there is a break out, especially a bullish one, it will attract the less experienced participants and that is when trade setups and momentum are more likely to follow through. Either wait for the most attractive levels (extremes at this point) or wait for the recovery to confirm. There is no missing out because when there is a broad move, attractive reward/risk opportunities are much more plentiful.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Lower High Points Back To 200?ETHUSD update: Lower high formation relative to the 300 resistance level translates to weakness ahead. Even with the recent attempt toward a more bullish effort, the overall structure remains bearish. If Bitcoin continues to 6K, it will be interesting to see how this market behaves in relation. Like I recently wrote, we are all trading one big Bitcoin. The correlation remains high no matter what alt you are in. Until this space proves other wise, we use Bitcoin as the general sentiment gauge. Sort of like how we use the S&P for the stock market. From a technical stand point, as long as the bearish trend lines stay intact, it is reasonable to anticipate weak price action. A close below 200 can lead to a retest of the 160 lows. The question we would like to see the market answer is: what happens upon a retest of the low? If Bitcoin holds above 5700, this market is more likely to produce a failed low. That is where an attractive but aggressive long setup can materialize. Although we have been on the sidelines for weeks , we would be open to the possibility of a swing trade long IF our strict criteria is met. This would be one of the few exceptions we would make for a weak market, but it really is a play on Bitcoin strength. Keep in mind, a decisive close below the 160 level negates any bullish exceptions. We have no problem stepping aside. It has saved us a lot of capital over the recent month and a half. In summary, Bitcoin leads and the alts follow. Bitcoin turns red, the whole space turns red. This is a general observation, since there are occasional exceptions like XRP (pure herd mentality). I know people hate to wait, but waiting saves tons of money. There is nothing to miss in these markets, especially while there is a ton of opportunity elsewhere like in stocks. Learning to wait is a skill that is easy to understand, but hard to put into practice. Which goes to show, what makes this game most difficult is not the intellectual or technical part, it's the emotional part. Everyone has the ability to wait, but most can't do it. Why? The answer is not on a chart.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: 6K Or Squeeze? Waiting For Market To Choose.Bitcoin update: Price consolidation presents a tricky situation. It is sitting above an important psychological support which makes it more attractive to buy, but the structure itself qualifies as a bearish continuation pattern. This conflicting information is a perfect example of when avoid a market. At S.C., we do not take trades for the sake of taking trades. We do not force trades, make up trades or issue trades to appease the impatience of our followers. We simply listen to the market and if it says "do not trade", we don't. Making a couple of profitable trades only to give it all back and then some is not productive. And since conditions do not offer any distinct advantages, more trades increase the chances of more losses. This goes for both longs and shorts. Speaking of shorts, we do not participate on the short side in a traditional sense. We do have a technique that allows us to increase our coin count during adverse movements without the additional risks such as leverage and exchange intervention. We recently demonstrated this for our members with our BCH inventory. Looking ahead, in order for us to put any new capital to work, price needs to show improved structure. This can unfold in a number of ways that would be meaningful from our perspective. One way would be to probe below 6K followed by a bullish reversal candle. This is a typical bear trap that offers a high probability setup for a long swing trade. In summary, we do not react to market information. We evaluate and anticipate, which is on the opposite side of the spectrum compared to the reactive trader. Our decisions are organized by probabilities and market structure, not overly complicated charts. Price action and market structure serve as a traffic light for our operations. When it's green we go, yellow we start raising defenses and red we avoid. Right now the market is showing us the red light. Inexperienced traders focus on profits, not risk. They want action, they feel they are losing when the market moves without them. They do not appreciate that the absence of losses is a big contributor to a profitable long term performance. During unfavorable periods, protecting capital is more important than putting it to work. There is a time to be aggressive, and there is also a time to play strong defense. Knowing the difference is what separates the true professionals. Which side are you on?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
ETHUSD: Price Structure And The 150 Possibility?ETHUSD update: A close below 180 will put the 150 psychological support into focus. Since the short term Bitcoin structure is pointing lower, this bearish scenario is a strong possibility. At S.C., we promote defense, not forced trades or vague suggestions (and then proceed to take credit for being "right" after the fact). The majority of alts are in a structural bear market according to the process that we use to define such a condition. Inexperienced traders do not yet have the ability to appreciate defense since their focus is on chasing profits. Imagine for a moment if you were able to go back to your performance record and erase 30 - 40% of your losses. How would that change your record? In effect that is the result of a good defense, which is underappreciated because of its intangibility. Making a profitable trade is not the biggest obstacle, not giving it back is. This is why being defensive during unfavorable conditions is essential. This is where unpopular words like patience and discipline come into play. When it comes to Ethereum, it does not matter what our opinions are about the future of its technology. Price structure is bearish and presently poised to go lower. If you look back, you will see that the 180 and 150 levels are the only points of reference for potential support. So how are we playing defense? First, we play one side of the market. This adds a layer of simplicity that reduces a number of risks, especially exchange intervention risk (see OKex). Second, we avoid any new trades (swing or position) as long as structure is clearly bearish. IF this market decides to construct a longer term recovery, there will be plenty of clues and opportunities to participate. We still carry inventory. What if we are wrong and this market goes to 0? Since we kept our positions sized relative to our account size, we can handle the loss. That is what allows us to be a strong hand and weather an unfavorable environment. What happens if the market is surprised by an Ethereum ETF approval? Have fun trying to catch that price spike. It will come out of no where, and we will benefit simply because we are willing to take the risk. Nothing on a chart can prepare you for such a random outcome. In summary, opposing views are what make a market possible. If everyone was in agreement, there would be no one to take the other side of our trades. Our plan for Ethereum is to sit on what we have until the market provides an opportunity to rotate out of the position and into more attractive candidates according to price structure. We share these specifics with our members. Until then we play defense because we can afford to wait it out.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
BTCUSD: Don't Forget How To Play Defense.BTCUSD update: 6K support holds which should not be too surprising. In range bound markets supports and resistances are both likely to hold until one side eventually breaks. Imposing your own ideas and opinions on the market ("it's a bear market") rather than letting the market explain itself is what leads to succumbing to the herd mentality. Most "authorities" that are calling this a bear market only do so based on obvious information. They simply draw a trend line on an intraday chart like a 1 minute and if it has a negative slope, it's a "bear market". Markets do not operate on an obvious level. At S.C., we have standards and criteria that define the condition of a market based on MARKET structure. This means the market tells us what it is and we simply listen and adjust. The same "experts" who are saying Bitcoin is in a bear market will miss the opportunity to buy at good prices. We follow best practices and our rules, not the herd. These guidelines give us the perspective to buy when the herd is bearish and sell when the herd becomes bullish. Opinions in the market are nothing but liabilities disguised as intelligence and wrapped with ego. What we think doesn't matter, it's all about what the market presents. As long as Bitcoin manages to stay above 5K, it is telling us that it is in a range bound market. This is NOT bearish, not even close. One of the criteria that helps us define a bear market is a progressive NEW low. So far 5750 is still intact. Reacting to a dramatic retrace is the sign of inexperience. From our perspective, the pull back to the low 6Ks is nothing but noise. Even if price pushes slightly below 5750 and reverses sharply, that is also noise (and an extreme low buying opportunity). In summary, Bitcoin by our definition is not in a bear market yet. Meanwhile, the majority of the alt coins are and is why we are WAITING on the sidelines in those markets. We encourage our followers to separate themselves from the herd by developing a strong defense more than anything else while these conditions persist. The reason why many continue to have problems in these markets is because they seek action and hunger for profits. Simplicity in the form of playing one side and not using leverage filters out numerous would be losses. These are times where a strong defense is what will contribute to positive long term results. It isn't always about "how much you made", it's also about "how much you saved". Think about that. Preventing a loss is never appreciated because it is hidden from the obvious.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD: Bearish Structure Says Avoid For Now.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum continues to maintain its grip on price as the 200 level is right around the corner. Structure has been very bearish in this market since July and why we have been sitting on the sidelines. Until this changes, best practices prevent us from doing anything else. The herd mentality is a fascinating thing. And it can be observed clearly in the comments that people leave on these posts. The inexperienced do not know how to define a bear market and only consume what is put in front of them. This is actually a good thing because someone needs to be on the other side of the trade. If everyone agreed, there would be no market. At S.C., we evaluate markets on structure and probability, not opinions and feelings. If the structure says neutral or range bound, we do not look to argue with it. Bitcoin is in a high probability location, and it's price action is neutral based on our criteria. It may not be in a position to buy at the moment, but as long as 5K holds, we will continue to look for bullish signs. Ethereum on the other hand is a different story. The structure is clearly bearish and it took out its major support over a month ago. Again we don't argue with it, we simply stand aside until it can prove itself. Most of the alts are in the same position except for 2 that are exhibiting not so obvious signs of strength (shared with members). We continue to carry some Ethereum in our long term portfolio but we discontinued cost averaging into it. Also we were careful not to buy too much which makes the position much easier to hold. Our plan is to rotate out of the under performers and move that capital into Bitcoin when the environment proves to be more favorable. In summary, sentiment provides valuable information when it comes to timing markets. The crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms and this is certainly not a top. Disagreement is necessary in order for a market to function to begin with. Otherwise there would be no liquidity. We do not pretend to know where the market is going. At S.C., we base our decisions on structure. The market tells us which way probability favors and we listen. When it comes to Ethereum, probability favors weakness, we don't argue, we avoid. Meanwhile Bitcoin is telling a different story and it is good to see the herd exhibiting such extreme negative sentiment. The most entertaining part is when these same people finally become bullish. At 12K.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Ugly Yes. Bear Market? Not Yet.BTCUSD update: Now you know why we avoid buying into highs. Price never reached the overhead resistance zone in the 7500's and has retraced sharply. The best thing to do in a situation like this is stand aside. At S.C., we evaluate everything in probabilities and follow best practices. It was clear that the risk was high as price got closer to the major overhead resistance between the 7500 and 7900 area. We do not pretend to know where the market is going, but we do prepare for scenarios based on how we measure risk. We sent out a more detailed chart to our members explaining this situation yesterday. When faced with this kind of bearish momentum, there is nothing to do but let the market play out. Price needs to stabilize and find a support before any further evaluation can be made. As for our portfolio, we still manage Bitcoin inventory and have no intention of selling it. We do plan to rotate out of some of the weaker alts and reinvest that capital back into this market. We share our strategey for that specific rebalancing process with our members. The alts got seriously punished during this retrace. Many of them have been presenting structures that have clearly warned of further weakness way in advance. This is why we have been so vocal about having a good defense and waiting for better conditions. (Just look at Ethereum). In summary, getting excited and reacting to fast moves in a market is not productive. The best thing to do is take a step back and let the market settle. As ugly as it looks, nothing moves in a straight line. We anticipate price finding support around the 6K area. Based on the current structure, it can even probe slightly below the 5750 level and reverse sharply. Do not lose sight of the broader location during periods of dramatic price action. If anything this market can be establishing a very wide consolidation. As long as price is trading above 4983, it is not that bearish over the long term. Just something to keep in mind when the "experts" start calling for "BTC 3K!" in a couple of hours.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTCUSD: Shallow Retrace Hints At Break Out To 7500.BTCUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the bearish trend line that has been established since early August. While at the same time, the bullish trend line is also still intact. Which way is it more likely to go? In my recent Bitcoin article on S.C., I explained the increasing risk of retrace as price pushed into the 7Ks. There is no reason to buy into a high, but there are occasional exceptions. The previous candle has closed as a pin bar. By doing this, price managed to maintain the bullish trend line. This is a sign of strength and a likely continuation pattern similar to an inside bar. When a market sells off it usually happens fast. The fact that price is holding up certainly supports the bullish argument. It may also be the result of the coming holiday in the U.S. which often unfolds with lighter volume across all major markets. In summary, if the current structure holds, this market is poised to break higher. The trade would certainly be an aggressive one, and those details will be shared with our members. We are not one to buy highs, but shallow pullbacks are an attempt to retrace. If the market can't retrace, it is saying that the bulls still maintain control. The 7500 area is a reasonable expectation if a continuation break out occurs. A close below the bullish trend line will negate this scenario. Begin with the idea and then let the market choose to validate it or not.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
BTCUSD: Bearish Formation Poised To Revisit 6K?BTCUSD update: Price is having a tough time pushing through the 6800 level which can be interpreted as a sign of weakness. This market has been the most resilient and if it retraces it will likely take many of the alts below their support levels. At S.C. we had a long position in BCH expecting it to outperform BTC during the recent squeeze attempt. Instead of outperforming it clearly demonstrated signs of relative weakness no different than ETH or LTC. So we chose to raise the stop and reduce the risk by more than 75%. The trade stopped out, but the loss was minimal. Even though it produced a negative outcome, the trade was good because we cut the risk while still giving the market a chance. What people do not understand is we let the market dictate how to manage positions, not our feelings or opinions. With BTC potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, we will simply sit on the sidelines and wait for a more favorable setup. If the recently established bullish trend line is compromised, price can retest the low 6Ks. If price closes below the 5800 level, that will activate the head and shoulders pattern. Since we only trade the long side of this market, there is nothing for us to do but watch. The bullish argument is becoming less compelling, but IF the trend line holds, or price prints a reversal pattern around the 6200 area, that can present a possibility for a swing trade. All we can do is wait and see. In summary, the head and shoulders pattern is generally a bearish sign BUT its general location is not a bearish area. This does remove some of the relevance of the pattern. We also remind our followers at S.C., that identifying good trades is not just about candlesticks and chart patterns but also about abstract considerations like the probability of the general location. This is something we strongly consider which helped us capture a 10% profit in 6 days off of the recent low. If the market retraces, we will continue to watch the price action around the 6K psychological support along with the levels of short interest. You don't make opportunities in a financial market, instead you wait for them to materialize. If you have a sound plan and a reasonable set of criteria, eventually the market will align itself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD: Relative Weakness Vulnerability Means More Waiting.ETHUSD Update: New buy trigger appears while Bitcoin steam rolls toward its next high. Price is now challenging its steeper bearish trend line which is a positive. BTC is doing its part which is what we have been anticipating, while the concern is alts like ETH are still underperforming. This relationship can be interpreted as a sign of relative weakness which makes these particular coins very vulnerable to a retrace in BTC. At S.C., we have been sharing ideas with our members about how we have put coins like ETH on standby until they can prove themselves in terms of price structure. This is a defensive measure that helps us maintain our objective of deploying capital toward the prospects that offer the greatest probability of a favorable outcome. We would rather give up the better prices in exchange for better probability. This is where most who are new to this arena or investing in general get it wrong. Market timing is more about organization than anything else, not big profits. Following a simple set of well defined rules like avoiding relatively weak markets are what protect our portfolios from getting too heavy into a market that has greater potential to go lower. Having a focus on profits, which is instinctive, is the first mistake. This is what leads to impulsive behavior and the gambling mentality. One of the most common errors I see are forced trades along with mismatched expectations. This would be when you are putting on trades every day (day trading) and expecting swing trade profit targets every time. If the broader moves are what you prefer, then high quality setups are going to be much less frequent compared to day trades. 2 - 3 high probability swing trade setups are considered a busy WEEK. In summary, in order for us to start putting on swing trades or accumulating more inventory, ETH needs to close much higher. We share these precise details with our followers. We also emphasize the role and value of patience when it comes to waiting for a market to comply with criteria. Professionals define a good trade by how well it adhered to the criteria that triggered it, not by how much profit it generated. A negative trade for all the right reasons is a good trade, while a positive trade for all the wrong reasons is no better than a loss. The wrong reasons will erode your account over the long run. Consistency comes from structure and having a well defined plan. The objective is to isolate favorable conditions in light of the relative risk. And these conditions are presented by the market, not made up or imposed by "gut feel" or ego. They are also infrequent, which means more time will be spent watching and evaluating than actual trading. Trading should be equated with waiting, which is far from exciting or glamorous. Marketers capitalize on the immediate gratification tendency of the herd by putting out information that caters to their need for action. And most new to this business who are still controlled by greed and fear do not have enough experience to see through their agenda. If putting capital to work efficiently is your goal, the focus should be developing a perspective and a simple plan to serve as your guide. The best place to begin is by learning to interpret a clean chart without any outside opinions or bias.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
ETHUSD: New Low? Don't Overlook One Important Clue.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum revisits the 270s and points to the possibility of a new low. When viewed through the lens of BTC, the not so obvious argument for a failed low shines through. This conflict offers clues about the hidden strength of this market and in our opinion not a good idea to short. I published an article earlier on S.C. that goes into more detail on the structural conflict between the two markets. This reason alone is enough for us to avoid Ethereum and Litecoin until they can prove the return of more stable price action. While many are focused on oscillators and trend following, they lose sight of the fact that BTC rules these markets. And even though it looks unattractive at the moment, it is still not making new lows. All while short interest is pushing highs. If BTC holds and establishes a higher low, ETH is likely to follow. That means shorting into this low is a likely bear trap. This is why it is important to always look beyond the obvious when it comes to chart analysis. At S.C., we are carrying inventory and a swing trade long in BTC. If there is a recovery, it will begin there first, especially since it has the most attractive structure and lower risk compared to the alts. In summary, the crowd chases profits which is usually the path to more losses. High probability opportunities are infrequent and require a great deal of patience to recognize. If the crowd is impulsive and impatient, then being the opposite is more likely to prove fruitful. Patience is the first step toward anticipating or letting the market come to you. Everyone is quick to react to the obvious which in this market is to go short. Meanwhile their restlessness prevents them from seeing a subtle but important sign which is that Bitcoin is not pushing lows. And where ever Bitcoin goes, Ethereum is likely to follow along. Ethereum may not be in the best position for a long, but it is also in an unattractive location for a short. Whenever this kind of conflict ensues, the best choice is the stay on the sidelines and let the market work it out. True opportunity is lost when your account is wiped out from forced trades, not waiting for the most favorable setups.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11