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Bearishmomentum

ETHUSD: Close Below 300 Points To 250 Support.ETHUSD update: This market has performed the weakest during the recent bout of bearish order flow. The resulting structure points to a higher chance of lower prices. How low? A close below 300 increases the likelihood of testing the 250 area. Keep in mind, BTC is holding up so far. At S.C., we have been monitoring it carefully and have identified a new swing trade long possibility in another alt as a result. We aim to capitalize on the short squeeze if the market presents the opportunity. Andrew published an insightful article recently that presented a comparison of the alts that are on our inventory radar. ETH was clearly an under performer relative to its peers and this affects our decision making over the short term. IF BTC retests 6K or lower, this market is poised to get hammered hard. Current structure points to further weakness which could compromise the 300 psychological support. The 300 level carries a lot of weight for a number of technical reasons. One reason is it's the lower boundary of the largest magnitude .618 support zone (not on chart for simplicity). This equates to the 4980 level on BTC. If price decisively closes below this level, 250 becomes a distinct possibility. The relevance of the 250 area dates back to 2017 when a broad consolidation developed around there. This would be the next area to anticipate stability if 300 is cleared. In summary, when positioning for a bounce, the markets to be in are the ones that got beat up the least. ETH certainly does not fit that criteria. Since we do not short, there is nothing to do but avoid until strength returns. We remain long term bullish on BTC and plan to keep ETH on the radar. We still believe in the merit behind this coin but when the technicals say avoid, we have no problem putting our opinions aside. We will simply hold our inventory and wait for a more favorable environment. If BTC is going to recover, we want to be in the coins that have the greatest potential. We always talk about how opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices, but there does come a point where your resources are better utilized in markets that are much less ugly. When this market stops under performing, we will have no problem continuing our operations. We respect the market and will let it tell us when the time is right.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: Price continues back to the 6K psychological support. As long as price stays above 5750, the bullish impulse structure is still intact. We will continue to evaluate price action around the major support area for stability and a reversal. Earlier today on S.C., we texted a swing trade long idea to our members. Thanks to our simple filtering technique, the trade never triggered. This alone prevented a 300 point loss. I bring this up because most inexperienced traders and investors do not realize that consistent performance over time includes a strong defense. This means not only cutting losses short, but avoiding would be losses all together. Anyone can call a profitable trade, but if you can't keep the profit, then what's the point? The only one benefiting is your broker or exchange. Everyone and their cousin is jumping onboard the bear train. The record high short interest alone is a telling sign. We look for these signs of extreme sentiment because this is where long term opportunity is often found. At S.C., we evaluate probabilities first. Keep in mind price is still within a large magnitude .618 support zone that reaches as low as 4983. This means price can test below 5750 and still offer attractive longer term opportunities. Our plan is to continue to accumulate inventory, but with extreme care. Since we have a small position from the mid 7Ks, there is no need to aggressively buy at the moment. Instead we will wait until more stringent criteria is met before making another purchase. Why not get short? Besides not following the herd, we have a strict policy to avoid shorting these markets. The number one reason is leverage. To help minimize risk, we do not use leverage in these markets. Beyond risk of an adverse move, there are risks that most traders do not consider like regulatory risk. Do not forget, the exchanges that facilitate the order flow in these markets regulate themselves. This means they can make up their own rules at their convenience. Perfect example is the OKex's "claw back". This is where the shorts were responsible for paying back the exchanges extremely irresponsible margin liquidation debt. There's nothing worse than being penalized for taking the right side, especially when its to cover someone else's mistake. In summary, we will continue to monitor the extreme sentiment and look to capitalize on the turn when the signs line up. We have no problem waiting, or if the market goes lower. If price manages to go below 5K, we will simply hold off from further accumulation, but we won't sell. We don't have to, because our size is well with the proportions of our portfolio's risk profile. Price being in the middle of the largest support zone points to the higher probability of a reversal. And that is the side that we will prepare for, not react to the obvious. The crowd is usually wrong at tops and bottoms.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD: 300 Possible, But Reversal More Probable.ETHUSD update: Bearish price action leads to break of major support area. Now that key levels like 400 and 374 have been cleared, the broader strength of this market is thrust into question. And the answers can be found when you look back in time. The 300 area, which dates back to November of 2017 was a major break out for tihs market. There is a tendency for old resistance to become new support and if the inversion holds true, 300 area is a possibility to consider. The fact that price broke 374 places it into a very wide reversal zone that has a boundary in the 280s (not on chart for simplicity). This means next 100 points below offer increased potential for a broader reversal. At S.C., we had long swing trades in this market and in LTC which were stopped out. The stop at 386 saved us from an additional 40 points of pain. We still hold inventory in BTC because as ugly as this sell off is, the broader structure is not bearish yet. This entire space is contingent on BTC recovering. And as bearish as the herd is, they are not paying attention to the probability of the location. As long as the low 6Ks or even 5750 holds, the broad bullish impulse structure is still intact. The potential for a bottom to materialize in this area is high. At S.C., we do not make "predictions" like many of the other "experts". Instead we evaluate probabilities, manage risk and adjust to new information. Following the herd is something we do not participate in. Probabilities tell us that the current lows are an accumulation opportunity across the board. Our risk management rules tell us to wait. We intend to buy inventory and take on another swing trade long when the structure lines up. In summary, price can remain weak on the short term, but it is nothing more than an ugly shake out. Just like 18.5K on BTC had the world betting on 30K, these depressed prices are the polar opposite. Even if we could short here, we wouldn't even think of it. It is funny how no one is afraid to buy at 1250, while no one is afraid to sell at 350? History has proven the crowd is usually wrong at extremes and this situation is no exception.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTCUSD: Bullish Retrace Likely Off Of Key Support.BTCUSD update: Ugly price action has probed the 6850 area only to find some support so far. There are numerous technical reasons for this support to hold but I will cover two. What makes this formation more challenging to buy is the nature of the wave count. The current bearish price structure appears to be Wave C of a corrective formation. The formation can be considered a Wave 2 correction since price has decisively taken out the 7450 level. Wave 2s can correct 100% of Wave 1 and the broader impulse can still be intact. Typically Wave 2s retrace back to a deeper support like the .618 area which happens to be where this market is at the moment (not on chart for sake of simplicity). This support along with the bullish trend line just below are just two structural arguments for an increased chance of reversal. Price action may be tricky, but it's more about the probability of the location than about single candle formations. I published an article earlier on S.C. that covers more detail as far as the current area in play. We bought more inventory around the mid 7Ks along with some swing trades in the alts. We are simply letting probability play out. If we are wrong, we get stopped out. In summary, as ugly as price continues to look, the location remains very attractive. As long as the broader structure presents a formation of strength, buying into weakness aligns with best practices. The key is to look forward and let probability do its job. If the market continues to sell off, we have our risks defined so we know where we stand either way. As I wrote in my report earlier, the market changes fast, but is always right. Our job is to determine probabilities, define risk and adjust to new information. That is the essence speculating in any financial market. Getting wrapped up in drama, oscillators, or news events are the signature of the herd mentality. One of the first steps to separating yourself from the herd and recognizing the market's intent is to minimize these ineffective behaviors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
51
ETHUSD: Double Bottom Points To Squeeze. Can BTC Lead The Way?ETHUSD update: As BTC flirts with the low 6900 area, this market is being pulled along for the ride. Even in the face of significant BTC selling, this market is showing signs of resilience around the 400 psychological support level. Along with that, the likelihood of a double bottom formation is high. Earlier I published an article on S.C. and mentioned some possible conspiracy theories for BTC. As ugly as it looks, the bigger picture still presents a configuration of strength. If it recovers off the current lows over the next day or two, ETH is in a position to squeeze significantly. Double bottom formations are common reversal patterns. What makes this possible double bottom special for ETH is the location. Not only is 400 an important level, but the low 390s are also. The key is waiting for the right candle to appear. At the moment there is nothing. If price manages to mount a rally off this area, it will establish a broad range bound price structure from 400 to 515. This context helps to further shape our decision making in terms of managing our active swing trade going forward. Keep in mind price can actually go slightly lower than 400 and still be considered a double bottom. These type of fake outs often lure in a ton of shorts that actually force the price higher faster when they realize they are caught on the wrong side. If price falls apart, which is always a possibility, then the next support in question will be the 358 area. Even if price probes the 390s or 380s, as long as it does not break 358, the broader structure is pointing to strength in the form of a higher low. In summary, do not get sucked into "why" the market is selling off. All that matters is that it is. More importantly, the focus should be on how new price structures and levels shape the probabilities moving forward. The current location and formation point to an increased probability of a bullish reversal. This is the premise behind our trade and it is just a matter of letting the market play itself out. Like I titled my S.C. article, opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Extreme Price Zone Offers Chance To Buy.ETHUSD update: A healthy retrace has taken this market back to the low 430's. We managed to avoid any premature entries during the period of random price action recently. And this pull back was what we were waiting for. Extreme prices are where probability becomes favorable. As I wrote in my previous S.C. reports, consolidations are areas where randomness is the greatest. Fake outs are commonplace and unless the market can offer a favorable condition, risk could not be justified. No oscillator will help you filter out this type of situation, only best practices. 423 happens to be a reversal zone boundary that has been in place since June. If price cannot get itself together over the next few hours, it is likely to retest this level. Like I wrote in a recent report, first comes the location, next comes the setup. The whole purpose of a setup is to filter out low probability trades. A pin bar is an example of a setup, but as you can see, two candles ago price could not take out the high of that pin bar which negated the long signal. Once a qualifying setup appears, we intend to share a swing trade idea with our followers at S.C. It may be in this market, or one of the others. The great thing about these extreme prices is they also offer an opportunity to accumulate longer term inventory. While looking for swing trades, we are also allocating a portion of our capital to buying small portions of the highest potential coins. Buying into extreme weakness is the best time to employ such a strategy, but it must be done with careful planning. The details of which coins and how much will be shared with our members. Nothing has changed in terms of the structure on the bigger picture. This retrace is nothing more than impatient traders who bought prematurely getting shaken out. We did not predict this move, but we were prepared thanks to following best practices. In summary, patience and not caring about missing a move is how you align yourself with the next move. The market will eventually meet your criteria if you give it a chance. Giving it a chance means letting it rally without you. Missing moves never shrinks your account, but forced trades do. As you can see, the many false starts and fake outs have lead to a more dramatic sell off and this is where the real opportunity is. Best practices are not some complex set of rules. They are based on recognizing the traits of the herd mentality, and taking the proper steps to capitalize on it. The first step is to think against the crowd. This means unplugging yourself from the hype that they consume, and developing a point of view that is based on market structure. This is how you get into the habit of preparing, while they continue to react.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
ETHUSD: Formations Point To 490s. Signal Is Key.ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through takes this market back to the low 450s. This comes after a buy trigger appeared on Saturday at 464. More interesting is the fact that BTC pushed higher while the majority of the alts remained weak. What happened to "follow the leader"? At S.C., we were able to save our followers from this lack of momentum that began with the trigger on Saturday. Instead of buying like the herd, we called for a limit order way under the market. And more importantly we sent an instruction to cancel that order today by noon. People who followed were able to avoid the pull back into the 440s and are now patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Price is probing the 455 to 439 support zone. This is our next area of focus and IF the right signal appears, we will share our next swing trade long idea. Do not bang your head against the wall trying to figure out why the alts are not following the leader. When it comes to short term market timing, it really doesn't matter why. Relationships between markets change constantly, and that is all you really need to know. As we say at S.C., it works until it doesn't. Patterns, levels and formations offer a much better clue as to what is likely to happen next. Not abstract intermarket relationships or fundamental logic. At S.C., we are anticipating a bullish retrace over the next 8 days. There is no guarantee that it will unfold this way, but if the right signs show up, we are prepared to buy. In summary, do not always measure a trade call by its profit target. If a strategy or method can also help prevent losses, that is just as good as a win. Anyone can call trades, but not everyone can call for a good market defense. Location plays an important role when evaluating the probabilities of a particular idea or outcome. And the location of price in this market certainly features some compelling formations that make for an attractive long. It is just a matter of the right signal and having the patience to wait for it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
ETHUSD: 450 Area Potential For Next Buy.ETHUSD update: Following the BTC surge, this market has reversed out of the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone which should not be a surprise. Now that a bullish trend line has also been established, it is more reasonable to expect supports to hold as this market continues. The 455 to 439 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing) is the next area that we are eyeing for reversal patterns. Based on the current rate of momentum, the next low is likely to be established over the next couple of days. If this support is cleared, the low 400's is the next area to anticipate a bullish reversal. It all depends on how BTC unfolds. Sentiment dominates short term price action and at S.C. we are always on the lookout for extremes across a variety of magnitudes. Extreme sentiment is where the highest probability setups appear. In summary, buying pull backs can be tricky. Now that bullish price action is gaining a grip on these markets, it is within reason to expect more follow through. The next leg up has potential to test the 515 swing high at least. That is the what we will be using as a point of reference for profit targets. The best thing you can do is learn to think in probabilities. Certain methodologies and tools help you do this better than others. Earlier on S.C. I wrote an article about Elliott Wave and shared an updated count on BTC. When used properly, it serves as a valuable guide to compare to price action as it unfolds. Check it out because it offers some insight into the broader expectations of this market as well.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
$LTC Want to go $90 in Next 15 days.. here is why Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. I have a prediction that I have all been hit and I have got a chance to get my goal. i bought ltc at $ 7 dollar and sell my $ltc at 310 dollars. since the price is downtrend due to btc bearish. While 99% of Trading View authors go with the Wind, changing their idea everyday, Moving Water stays on track, and now, Big Fall, first predicted on May 6, is ongoing. LTC next target is hitting at 90-100 in th chart, hope it will hit like my previous prediction in my old trading view channel. Follow Us here and get next move of big coins. Also the next move of ur coin on your demand. Direct message (DM) to me for the coin.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by cryptobitt
BTCUSD: Higher Low Can Lead To Inverted Head & Shoulders.BTCUSD update: Price has retraced to the 6300 area which is serves as a minor support. As I wrote in today's S.C. report, this market is in position to establish an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a long term bullish sign. Since there are no specific triggers to go long, we are still waiting see if price offers a buying opportunity around the 6K area. This is a go and stop market, one that does not treat reactionary traders nicely. Understanding the type of environment and where to anticipate movements based on probability is key. This is why we did not buy the consolidation break out going into the resistance zone. The risk of retrace was high and the situation did not fit the criteria of our swing trade plan.The question is where is the best place to get long since the retrace is in progress? 6167 to 5999 is the minor .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish swing. This would be a very convenient and high probability location for a reversal candle to appear. The other level is the 5669 reversal zone boundary which would be the extreme price scenario. This is when the market usually looks the ugliest and the weak hands are shaken. In summary, if this market establishes a broader higher low formation around the current price, it could lead to a test of the 7120 reversal zone. As I wrote in my detailed S.C. report, this level serves as a reasonable point of reference for short term profit targets. The broader formation is in line with our high probability location premise that we have been writing about since May. If it follows through, price can very well be on its way back to the 7381 resistance and beyond. At S.C. we prepare and wait for the market to offer opportunities that fit within the scope of our risk profile. These opportunities are not isolated to one strategy, and is the reason why we accumulate inventory as well as take shorter term swing trades. Many less experienced traders have a tough time in these markets because they rely on tools or information that focus on irrelevant price activity. Projected support and resistance, psychological numbers and chart patterns can provide a lot of value in a noisy environment where oscillators are much less effective. Either way, prepare for scenarios rather than "predict" them. At least this way you put yourself in a position to let the market come to you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Sell Trigger Can Lead To Test Of 440 Support.ETHUSD update: 482 pin bar low has been taken out which is a sell trigger according to our perspective at S.C. The lower high off the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone is the reason why we were not interested in any swing trade longs. The coming retrace will serve as an important test of the recent strength that has appeared in these markets. Price is near the newly established bullish trend line after breaking 482. If price continues to push lower, the next level we will be watching for is the 440 area. This is a minor bullish reversal zone boundary (not on chart for sake of simplicity). IF a bullish pin bar appears around the 440 level or around 423, we will be looking for a swing trade long trigger. A sell signal like the one that just appeared is good for locking in some profit if you managed to buy at lower prices. Since we do not short these markets, shorting is not a possibility within the scope of our strategies. We are also holding inventory in BTC and other coins and will not sell any during the next retrace. The long term probability that these markets climb out of these lows is just beginning. With the amount of long term potential baked into these markets, there is no reason to lighten up on our positions at these levels, even in the face of a sell trigger. In summary, as I wrote earlier in my S.C. report, it is important to have a detailed process the defines every part of your decision making. We separate our strategies by time frame and define our decision making criteria from there. That type of organization is what serves as the most effective guide during conflicting signals such as a sell trigger within a slow grind recovery. At S.C., we look at these markets through the lense of a position trader and swing trader simultaneously. If this market retraces back to extrme prices like the 390s, we will be looking to accumulate more. If price instead forms a broader higher low, we will be looking for the swing trade long. Either way, we have a predetermined plan for what the market decides, not what we "predict" it will do. Check S.C. for trade ideas because that is where we share them with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
ETHUSD: Next Test Of Support In The 430s?ETHUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone after taking out the bearish trend line. This is a tricky situation because at first glance, this market appears to be forming a lower high and following the recent "trend". What is not visible is the probability of the location of BTC which we have been reiterating is bullish and ultimately determines where all the coins go. No matter how we analyze and examine this market, it is going to do what BTC decides to do. The only reason why I take the time to evaluate the levels and formations is because it is a way to quantify risk specifically for this market. Since the bearish trend line has been taken out across all the major coins, at S.C., we are anticipating the next retrace to present a higher low. For this market, that means looking for a reversal pattern somewhere in the 430's. If price falls through, then 392 is the reversal zone boundary to watch for bullish candle formations. Again this movement all depends on the sentiment and order flow of BTC. In summary, the higher low that we are waiting for may not happen the way we anticipate. Especially in this holiday market, price may consolidate and squeeze a little higher unexpectedly. At S.C. we are only interested in probabilities, especially on a broader magnitude. When these markets begin to align with our expectations, the next step is to refine the risk. One way we do that is using specific entry criteria that either the market will meet, or it will not. This is an imperfect process that does not catch every opportunity, but it serves a much more important purpose. It filters out a high frequency of trades with negative outcomes, preserves capital and allows for unemotional binary decision making. The benefits are definitely outweigh the occasional opportunity cost. What is your process?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Bearish Trigger Near But Higher Low Likely To Form.ETHUSD update: Inside bar has materialized which sets the stage for the next move in this market. With the bearish structure still intact, an attempt toward the 392 reversal zone boundary is likely. The structure to watch for though is a higher low formation between current prices and 392. This would be the bullish confirmation that a broader movement toward higher prices is in progress. I wrote in my previous reports that the recent short squeeze in these markets could be the beginning of a broader move higher. The general price area of these markets, especially BTC, present reward/risk scenarios that are skewed toward the bullish side. And part of the motivation that can help these markets along can come from a weakening Dollar. I published an article earlier on S.C. that explored this relationship further. At this point, ETH as well as BTC are facing the first bearish obstacle. The mid 440's is where the bearish trend line is located as well as the lower boundary of the broad 544 to 464 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure). If price breaks back below the low 440s, it will be generating a sell trigger and can lead to a retest of the 400 low. If 400 is taken out, 392 is the next reversal zone boundary relative to the 404 low. That is the location to look for reversal candles like a bullish pin bar. A close below 392 opens the possibility for the test of 374 which would be a bearish sign to say the least. As S.C., we are anticipating the higher low scenario because of the magnitude of the initial spike on Friday. In summary, if the higher low can materialize, it would justify a swing trade long idea (which will be shared with followers on S.C. if we take it). A push off a higher low can take price back into the low 500's at least. If price action stays tight, it can also form a shallow higher low and squeeze earlier than expected. This would be a higher risk trade because of the general lack of follow through and bearish obstacles still in play. In this scenario, we will wait it out until the trend line is at least cleared before considering such aggressive setups. You will be in the game longer if your biggest mistakes are missing trades, rather than forcing trades. Missing a trade does not drain your capital, while forced trades drain it quickly. Just something to think about.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
BTCUSD: Bearish Momentum But Support Zone Still In Play.BTCUSD update: Price has taken out the previous spinning top low which is a bearish sign. Even though this is the case, the 6K and 5956 reversal zone supports are still in play. If this move fails to make a new low, this market will still be in position for a sharp squeeze. 5755 is the low that needs to be taken out in order to prove bearish momentum is still in full effect. Like I wrote previously, bottoming is a process, and it is far from precise. At S.C., our swing trade was stopped out at 5980. Stops are not pleasant, but they protect accounts from being wiped out by hope mode. That is when you stay in the trade, hoping it comes back. Our inventory strategy does not change in a situation like this and the stop order was only for that specific swing trade. We are watching for a reversal formation to get long again because our strategy takes into account the probabilities of the broader location, and does not place any weight on noise. As long as price stays above 5755, it will likely be setting up for a squeeze. If price reaches 5669 and reverses quickly, that will also count for a failed low formation which will prompt us to look for a bullish reversal trigger as well. The bearish scenario for us is a break and close below the 5669 reversal zone boundary. In that scenario, we will stop looking to buy and just wait for stability to return. In summary, bearish momentum can present tough price action when it is right in the middle of a major support area. At S.C., we consider this random price action until the market provides proof by taking out a major level. These are the kind of areas where patience from experience comes into play. Our bullish outlook has not changed, because nothing says that this market is going to make a new low at this point. The most we can do now is wait for structure to line up for the next swing trade long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Means Higher Low More Likely.BTCUSD update: Small retrace back into the 6K psychological support. The 6350 area is now a lower high, but if this market was going to sell hard, the bearish candle should have been larger. Instead, price stops at the major support which hints at a higher low. What I find most interesting is how the negative sentiment is at an extreme (judging by all the bearish talk), while a giant pin bar has printed on a major support level. What many do not realize is, if this is a short term bottom, it is not going to retrace in a straight line. Bottoming is a process and what price appears to be doing at the moment is retesting the 6K psychological support. If it holds again, a higher low formation will be established. Keep in mind price has been in a high probability reversal area for days. The process is slow, but once the structure materializes, it often just needs a spark. A news item of some kind that catches everyone off guard, especially the shorts. Often in a high probability area, order flow expresses itself in ways that indicate some kind of accumulation is taking place. A higher low is one structural example of this process, and is especially relevant in situations like we have on this chart. In summary, I have been writing about looking beyond the charts in a situation like this. The location and recent structures are all pointing to a greater possibility of reversal but it is not obvious which is why the opportunity still exists. Price can even retest the 5669 reversal zone boundary and as long as it holds, this market is more likely to reverse than break below this entire support zone at 4983. Of course anything can happen, and an open mind must always be maintained, but at S.C. we bet on probabilities more than anything else. And there are just too many bullish signs in this situation to ignore. Over on S.C. make sure to follow our swing trade updates for this market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD: 423 Support In Sight, But Short Squeeze Potential High.ETHUSD update: Short term price action is poised to test the 423 reversal zone boundary as an inside bar is now present on this time frame. A break of the 454 low would be the signal for further weakness, but as ugly as this market looks, do not lose sight of the broader location. When things look obvious, that usually means everyone is thinking the same thing. In this case, short. If day trading, that's one thing, but if you are expecting a big win, that is a high risk idea in my opinion. Earlier I wrote an article on S.C. which highlighted the broader structures of this market. The 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of the recent bullish swing relative to the 374 low) and the fact that price is still holding way above the 374 historical low. If this broader structure does not break below 374, it will then be establishing a broader higher low formation. This is a place to accumulate for a bigger picture move higher, not sell. 423 is the next reversal zone boundary that presents a high probability location for bullish patterns. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for the opportunity to add to our inventory. In summary, extreme sentiment is an opportunity that only a contrarian will recognize while the herd is busy following indicators that look backwards. Buying into this type of market goes beyond what you will see on a chart and has more to do with intangible concepts like best practices and crowd psychology. I liken this situation to the polar opposite of where this market was in January in terms of sentiment. The crowd was sure ETH was going to 2K in a matter of weeks and instead it went to 374. Now the market is fluctuating near lows but not making lower lows while volume is shrinking which is a not so obvious bullish sign. In situations like this, you do not want to be part of the crowd. Do not be distracted by hype or attention seekers and do not be limited by irrelevant lines on a chart. If you recognize the long term merit of these coins, then these low prices are an opportunity to invest. It is no different than buying name brand items that go on sale.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Attractive For? Buyers.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is still asserting itself and price may be entering the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Often movements like this will have the attention seekers out in full force screaming that 3K is coming. Pay attention to the price action and nothing else. In terms of probability, price is now in an area very attractive for buying, not selling. The two most important levels at this moment are the 6K psychological support and the 5956 reversal zone boundary. It is the extreme price scenario that I have been writing about. Since the move is quick, their will be many weak hands dumping their coins at the lows. Great time to be looking to buy. Now keep in mind, I do acknowledge the bearish momentum. Lower highs often lead to lower lows, but what makes this situation unique is the broader location. Price is in a broad support zone. 8171 to 4983 is the .618 of the entire bullish move measured from the 150 lows. I have been writing about this area constantly because it should not be overlooked. Even though it it is very wide, and price can move lower within it, it is still a place to be accumulating. The reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 are very probable if there is not a quick recovery over the next few hours. At S.C. we are managing long term inventory and not selling it. As I wrote previously we have been watching for an opportunity like this to add, but carefully. We are specifically waiting for some form of reversal either off the 6K support, or within the reversal zone boundaries below. Otherwise we wait to see how much lower this market can go. In summary, what has occurred on a chart is now history. Do not make the typical herd mistake of projecting old information forward and instead consider the probabilities. At 18K, we knew the probability of higher prices was limited, and at these levels, we have the opposite scenario. People can say whatever they want or feel, but we only listen to what the market says as it expresses itself in the charts. Extreme prices often lead to new opportunities and at S.C. we are waiting for these to appear. It starts with the level, and then the formations. If criteria is met, you know where we will share it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHUSD: Lower High Obvious But Don't Ignore Support Zone.ETHUSD update: Price has reached the bearish trend line and is now hesitating. This is not unusual and was expected, that is why we placed our swing trade target at 540. The question is: what is price more likely to do from here? Lower low? Higher low? Or continuation higher? In case you have not been following our swing trade on S.C., it reached its 55 point profit target 2 days ago. The selection of that target was partly based on the bearish trend line. The bearish trend line has been slightly compromised, but not enough to change our short term outlook. Bearish structure still dominates the short term momentum and until that changes, we are going to be very conservative as far as putting on new swing trades and their respective profit targets. The short term bearish argument is as follows. If the 516 inside bar low is taken out, followed by the newly established bullish trend line, then this market is more likely to retest the 458 reversal zone boundary. In an extreme sell off, price can even test the 423 reversal zone boundary. This is the type of price action we wait for when it comes to our inventory building strategies. Again, the selling scenarios are all IFs. Meanwhile, price is still within a broad support zone. The 544 to 464 area is the .618 of a recent bullish structure. As imprecise as this area may be, it cannot be ignored. It does present a chance that a higher low or failed low formation can materialize here. This is what the bears are not seeing and will be seriously caught off guard. Great scenario for people who hold inventory. Another sign that canot be ignored is if the bullish trend line stays intact. A long signal off of the current inside bars can also catch many by surprise. If this happens, it will most likely be lead by a similar signal in BTC. In summary, before any of these markets show real signs of recovery, they need to take out their trend resistance levels. In this case it is the 625 level which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Until then, we are likely to see wide range bound markets that do not make any real progress. At S.C., we are not convinced of a completley bearish market because of 2 conditions. The first is the general bullish price location. The second is the premise that this market is forming a broad higher low formation which is also still in line with the Elliott Wave count I posted recently. This type of environment is not without its opportunities, but patience and realistic expectations are key. We let the market tell its story and adjust to it, always evaluating the risks vs. potential rewards. No matter where it goes, we have a plan of action for that scenario. Your own plan will serve you better than anything else. As I have been reminding our followers at S.C., use quiet time to plan ahead and to expand your knowledge. You will be much better prepared for when these markets get busy and the reactionary crowd returns.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
LTCUSD: Bearish Price Action Near Bullish Reversal Zone.LTCUSD update: A strong outside bar has appeared in this market which can be the beginning of the next retest of the bearish trend line. The current hesitation though can be cause for concern, depending on how the candle closes. Keep in mind, this market is following BTC which means even in the face of bearish structure, the greater potential remains bullish. The bearish trend line is still in play around the 108 level. Beyond that, the 125 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still stands. Price still has a ways to go before we can get excited about any significant bullish gains. Until it takes out those levels, it has the 90 reversal zone boundary holding up any attempts lower. This is the area to watch for accumulating opportunities. With the price as low as it is, BTC does not have to go far for this market to spike higher. Look at ETH. At S.C., we called a swing trade long back on 6/13 which hit its 55 point profit target earlier today. BTC did not do anything spectacular, yet ETH outperformed. The same type of behavior can take this market by surprise as well. In summary, short term formations may be bearish, but it is the probability of the bigger picture that carries more weight at these prices. The major coins are in an area where a large magnitude failed low can be forming. Like I wrote in a previous BTC article, these markets are in a hot spot, all they need is a surprise catalyst and off they go. Most importantly you must be able to make your own decision. You must do it based on your own reasoning, not what the "experts" think. The herd of analysts are calling for BTC 3K. Now? Why weren't they calling for this when BTC was at 18K? If you read the reports I was writing at that time, I was promoting caution and staying flat while the crowd was feverishly buying. If you find yourself confused by the conflict, then avoid these markets all together. Eventually they will work themselves out and make more sense, but by that time, you will be paying much higher prices. Avoid the noise and follow the charts on the bigger picture. That is where you will find more clarity.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
ETHUSD: Broader Wave Count Still Bullish. 600 Break Is Key.ETHUSD update: When the day to day momentum dries up as is the case with these coins, it is always helpful to zoom out. This is where Elliott Wave offers a lot of value because it shows us where we are on the bigger picture map, and most likely where this market is going. People give Elliott Wave a hard time because they expect precision and that is not what it offers. Instead it provides a sense of location. It helps to answer "where are we?". And what needs to happen in order to make some sort of progress? In the case of ETH, if the current structure bottoms out and establishes a Primary Wave 2, it will be setting up for a Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 3. Basic rules of an impulse dictate that Wave 3 is never the shortest wave. Also Wave 3's and 5's have a tendency to extend. This all means there is a lot of bullish potential baked into these markets over the long term. In order for this broad scenario to begin to confirm, the 598 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure relative to the 828 high) needs to be taken out. In other words, once the 600 psychological area is cleared, this market will more than likely be in a subwave 1 of the Primary Wave 3. If this market continues lower, it can go as low as the 380s and still be within the rule that says Wave 2 does not go below the start of Wave 1. This is why Wave 2's and Wave 4's are so tricky, especially at their extremes. In summary, as we have been writing on S.C. about how quiet markets call for preparation. Do not force trades, instead define scenarios and be prepared if the market aligns, or if it doesn't. We are not here to predict, only trade probabilities and manage risk. No indicators are required to accomplish this, but a decision making process is. Elliott Wave is an effective analytical framework to use especially for long term perspective. It does not make any promises, but it does provide a road map to compare scenarios against. Take advantage of this quiet time in the market and learn the basics. It is a big first step in developing your own perspective and that is more valuable than any ideas you get from an "expert".
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
BTCUSD: Conflciting Signals? Bigger Picture Potential Bullish.BTCUSD update: Symmetrical triangle has appeared after a series of inside bars. This continuation pattern implies lower prices, but the bigger picture location makes for a very conflicted technical situation. The break of this triangle points increases the possibility of a retest of the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Or just above that at the 6005 historical support. The conflict comes in when you zoom out and observe the price location. The 6005 to 6565 levels are both significant supports where buyers have appeared previously. 8171 to 4983 is the largest magnitude .618 support zone that is relative to the entire bullish structure originating from the 150 lows. And the failed low configuration relative to the April lows. These broad considerations point to a greater probability of a large recovery move. As I wrote in my S.C. article on ETH earlier, these markets are in position to rally, all they need is a spark. The "spark" or catalyst is something a chart will not help you see. Usually they come out of no where and take the market by surprise. Kind of like the way Draghi hammered the Euro 300 pips the other day. What you must decide is what time frame you are betting on. The short term is still showing signs of bearish momentum with the trend line and 7790 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still intact. At S.C., we are not day trading. Swing and position trades contain the scope of our evaluation, expectations and trade decisions. This means we are still betting on the bigger picture. We are betting that the attractiveness of the broader location outweighs the small time frame momentum. If price pushes lower, we take more pain and get stopped out and will simply look for an opportunity to get back in. Otherwise we are positioned to benefit nicely if the a bullish spark takes this market by surprise. In summary, we don't bet on opinions, we bet on probabilities. Any updates will appear on S.C., follow along for a better idea of the decision making process we use, especially in situations like this.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTC- Bad News Spreading - 5th Target on the Corner - 5k PossibleHi, Followers and Friends !! I am very Happy, I have achieved my main goal so far: I Have Saved Some People !! and I open with a quote: "you are really doing something very important!! i am following you 2 month now. and i start applying your advices since a month. could not be happier to protect my small capital from loses at this stage of the market. THANK YOU AND WAITING TO BE YOUR STUDENT." TRADING TECHNIQUE HAS 2 MAIN STAGES: 1=> BE ABLE TO NOT LOSE MONEY (Not falling on Traps and getting out if analysis does not work, before loss happens) 2=> MAKE SOME PROFIT (Getting on the Wave at the very beginning with some risk but with 70% or more Probability.) For Those Who Read All My Charts, you already know many Traps Types that 95% of traders fall in, and lose everything. Once we learn to not lose money, we can start to learn how to trade with some confidence to make some money. About BTC = It is still Bearish Trend, still has room for more fall, even further from my final target $ 5730. Moving Water Spotted a possible drop to 5k. Analysis is not finished yet, but Stay Tuned it is not out of the question. Let's Be a Team I Know all of my Followers Will Also help me some day and be able to share something I need to learn. I really Like what I am doing and I hope WE CAN WORK TOGETHER and CREATE AN ELITE CRYPTO GROUP with serious and hard work traders. HOPE THE BEST TO YOU ALL. M.W. Good Luck and Good Profit ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) ___________________________________ => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => MORE INFORMATION: check Related Ideas Below. => PLESE: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
45
BTCUSD: Next Stop Low 6K's Unless Reversal Candle Appears Now.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is confirmed as price is now testing an important support level. At this time there are no signs or structures that say this market wants to retrace. That does not mean it won't, but the probability is low. Unless a bullish reversal candle appears, I am anticipating a test of the low 6Ks. I wrote about 6565 area in my previous BTC report on S.C. It is where buyers appeared back around the beginning of April. The only evidence that there is any buying now is the previous candle which is a bullish inside bar. As I wrote in my earlier report today on S.C., that was not enough to justify any risk taking, especially in the face of bearish structures like the trend line still in play. In order for this market to demonstrate that a broader bullish trend is more likely in progress, it has to take out the 7790 level. This is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. As long as this market continues to push lows, this level will continue to adjust. This level also serves as a reasonable target for short term swing trades. Even more reasonable than that is the low 7Ks where the bearish trend line is located. These are the areas we will be considering as targets if this market manages to establish a reversal off of current levels. In summary, markets that push dramatic lows will generate all kinds of extreme analysis, media reports and a lot of nonsense. Do not lose sight of the fact that price is probing the 8171 to 4983 large magnitude support zone. I understand it is too wide to draw any meaningful conclusions from in terms of short term timing, BUT it does tells us that if a broader reversal is going to happen, this is a very convenient area. In other words, I would not hold onto any shorts. Always be patient, and if you are holding inventory, stay focused on the big picture. Price can go as low as 5669 and still be in a good position to retrace sharply. These are attractive levels for inventory accumulation. Any adjustments to our S.C. portfolios will be made available there.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25