Get started

Bearishmomentum

LTCUSD: Sitting Inside Reversal Zone. Eyeing Candle Sticks.LTCUSD update: Price has retraced nicely along with the BTC sell off and is now in a very attractive area. Even though short term momentum is still bearish, a bullish retrace back to the 120 area is within reason. Earlier today on S.C., Andrew posted an article on accumulating inventory in this market. If you haven't read it yet, you should check it out because it offers some good bigger picture perspective. My earlier article was about BTC and how candle stick formations can provide the evidence we need to justify a swing trade long. In this chart, there is a spinning top that is almost a pin bar. Along with that, since the low is barely lower than the previous large bear candle, it almost qualifies as an inside bar. Even though these signs are all "almost", they do carry some significance because of the predetermined level it is all happening on. The 104 level is the reversal zone boundary relative to the previous 109 low. If price is going to mount a reversal, this would be the highest probability area for it to happen. The 109 to 105 area has also been one that we closely watch because of previous buying activity. If price can break back above 108.50, a swing trade long is reasonable. The context at the time will determine if we send a trade idea to our followers on S.C. or not. Keep in mind, if BTC decides to test the mid 5Ks which is possible in an extreme bear scenario, this market will likely fall below 100. A close below the 104 reversal zone also cancels out any swing trade long ideas until a new formation appears. In summary, based on the current structure, there is potential for price to retrace back into the 120s. It really depends on the BTC market, but at least price action is beginning to shape up. Watch closely and make sure to follow along on S.C., since that is where we are posting trade updates. And do not forget to check out our info on the inventory strategy that we are big proponents of as well.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
#BTC - UNDER HEAVY RAIN ! Bounce Area? = 4th Target is Hit.Hi, Followers and Friends, So, as we saw on the last chart, DROP IS happened on BTC -9.58% market. => Finally 4th Target HIT ($ 6.900). Thanks for Trusting. Now, it is time for our FINAL TARGET: $ 5.800. But to be safe and get a bounce areas: Conservative: $ 6.500 Normal: $ 6.200 Aggressive: $ 5.900 Remember in order to have your order completed you need to choose a price higher than the market. Good Luck and Good Profit M.W. ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => For MORE INFORMATION check Related Ideas Below. => Feel free to: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. M.W. - Moving Water
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
16
POSSIBLE TARGETS FOR BTC, IT IS FREE - ENJOYHi Trading View, Double Top has been confirmed and now we are on a bear wave. Could be the last one before market decides to go long for a big wave. How cool is the Moving Water? Many people did not believe on the double top, but there it is been draw on the chart. I am sorry if I had so many short charts, a lot of people get angry, but it is not my fault if BTC is falling, since 20K. Believe me, It is not because of me that it has dropped 14k. I really don't have that power, I just can see it, and I would not avoid post a chart because most of people want it to go long. Actually, many people have thank me that they saw my charts before putting all their money, right before it dropped from 20k. But, I also have some LONG charts already, that did work 100% PERFECT (check my history). So, I don't just do SHORT charts. I am still testing the MOVING WATER, and everything here is for free. Let's hope it keeps improving as it is. I decided to spot all the prices that could be reached, and bounced to help your trades. $ 5700 is the bottom for now. I am so happy I have now 830 followers. Thank you all for the support. For more information check the related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
65
BTC - BIG STORM AHEAD !! Bulls Are Now Trapped Waiting Death. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused => Takes (weeks/months) to Complete <= Hi, Followers and Friends, So, as we saw on the last chart, a pause and a correction just happened on BTC market. Now, It is probably time for Number # 3 - DROP TIME. When there is a Down Trend = Correction is Up. When there is a Up Trend = Correction is Down. Since BTC is still on a Downtrend, correction was up, and now many bulls are trapped, because price should not go any higher. At first, on May 25th, I posted a possibility for a Bull Trap to 8k. But then, on May 29th, I saw a very strong resistance at 7.800, so I told everyone that 8k was out, and that price could not reach 8k. So far, this bull trap could only hit $ 7.770. Now, correction is stressed out, and there is no more power to get price higher than $7800 resistance. So, if there is no result, and Bears feel Weakness, that start to come for another massacre. MA 100 is now in charge of the Daily Chart. It is still possible that all the Bulls try one last attempt before dying, trying to survive. So, let's see if it is going to be a calm death or if there will be a resistance. But, M.W. still shows that $ 7.800 is the limit as a resistance for BTC now. It is so weird how many people keep using higher lows to do technical analysis on daily charts. Some types of charts and only on specific moments, could help, not like this. So, because they see higher lows on BTC on daily chart, they just think price is going to 13K now. It is not time to go long yet. Hold On, time for that is probably very near. Beginners and Intermediate just wait for price to get lower to buy, others check below. Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: -------- => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => For MORE INFORMATION check Related Ideas Below. => Feel free to: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. M.W. - Moving Water
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
101
BTCUSD: Weak Hands Get Shaken As Price Enters Support Zone.BTCUSD update: Finally some movement. Looks like the the bears rejected the minor resistance area that I wrote about in my previous report. Even though it may look concerning, this move is welcome because it brings the opportunity of a swing trade long idea that much closer. The 7330 to 7212 support zone is relative to the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. There was also a minor reversal zone boundary in the 7400's that got blown right through. The point of knowing these levels is not to expect price to simply reach one and turn, rather it is to be prepared in case a reversal sign appears. I always tell my readers, one of the steps in the trade process that we employ at S.C. is evaluating predetermined levels. This is dramatically different from "predicting" moves which so many are still bent on doing. We don't predict, we measure probability. In my report yesterday on S.C., I wrote that even though price action had established some bullish structure, the problem was it was climbing right into a resistance zone. I even wrote that it could have broken above, but the probability favored bears. The main reason is the 8100 area resistance which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. And here we are, 300 points lower. Again I did not know this was going to happen, but I did know to avoid any longs in that resistance area. Best practices dictate to buy supports, not resistances. Speaking of supports, now price is finally revisiting some interesting levels. The key is to WAIT for a reversal pattern to materialize for a swing trade. Even though potential still favors the bear side on the short term, a bounce off current levels can reasonably take price back up into the 7500s or higher. Certainly worth risking 150 points for. Besides that, another bounce off this general area will only add more emphasis to the 6K area broad higher low formation. Overall, be patient and if you are really feeling aggressive, the 7200 to 6904 area is a great place to accumulate inventory. Keep an eye out on S.C. because this is where we will share any portfolio ideas. Otherwise, on the short term, now is the time to start paying attention to levels like the mid to low 7200s, 7K and 6904 for reversals. If the market can meet our criteria, a swing trade long idea will be in order. We don't know if the market will reverse, but we will be prepared if the opportunity presents itself. All the information we need is in the price action.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
38
LTCUSD: The Levels We Are Looking To Buy Are Lower.LTCUSD update: Tight consolidation as this market waits for BTC to choose a direction. There is a lot of structural conflict in this area and the best thing to do is let these markets figure themselves out. There are no worthwhile signals to capitalize on anyway. As you can see on the chart, price rejected the 128 reversal zone boundary. It has also found support off of the 117 to 113 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). An adjusted bullish trend line is still in play which means as long as it holds, price can still grind higher. Even though this may be the case, there are no long setups to talk about. And as long as the 138 resistance level (.382 of broad bearish structure) stays intact, it is not reasonable to expect a sustained rally any time soon. In times of price conflict, the best thing to do is avoid trading. Even on the inventory building side, these are not low enough prices to make them attractive. Also keep in mind BTC is still fluctuating near a resistance zone which means there is still more bearish potential than bullish. At S.C., our plan is to see if these markets offer opportunities by retesting significant lows. In this market those would be the 113 or sub 108 areas. If price can develop reversal candles in these areas, a swing trade long idea may be in order. Otherwise we are not initiating any new longs. Quiet markets are good for two things: researching undervalued high potential alts and quietly accumulating them. You want to buy them when the herd is not excited or not looking, NOT when they are being hyped by every coin blog in existence. On S.C. we always make it a point to write about the ones that we see the most potential in. Instead of getting caught in forced trades, research your next possibility.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Lower High Established. 544 Support Now In Focus.ETHUSD update: Lower high scenario is unfolding as anticipated. The 625 resistance, although slightly broken, basically held and now the bears are in control. The next support area to watch for any bullish reversals is 544. I have been writing about this retrace. My BTC report on S.C. yesterday talked about the slow grind into the bear zone. It is not that I knew this pull back was going to happen, I knew the probability was high. Knowing this helps me to avoid long swing trades in these markets, especially when they appear to be "breaking out". The 625 level is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. Until this level is decisively taken out, this market (along with the rest of the coins) are going to have a hard time making any bullish progress. The question now is: how low do they go and when to buy? The first level we are waiting for at S.C. is the 544 area. 544 to 464 is the .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish structure coming from the 374 low. A reversal candle in this area will more than likely justify a new swing trade idea. If price falls through the mid to lower 500's, then the 471 reversal zone boundary becomes the focus. If price is going to reverse higher, this price area offers the greatest probability for it to follow through. Remember, a bearish trend line is still intact which means short term bullish ideas offer less potential. This is why we exited our recent swing trade so early on S.C. We are not opposed to longs, but they will come with more conservative targets. In summary, be patient and do not mix up strategies. Inventory building is dramatically different from short term swing trading. It is possible to be bullish long term (inventory) and bearish short term (swing or day trading). If you find this confusing, that is normal. It took me many years to differentiate between the two styles. Still confused? Pick one style and stick to it. At S.C., our short term plan is to wait for the 544 to 464 support zone and evaluate price action from there.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: Lower High Formation In Progress. Watching For 7335.BTCUSD update: This market is in a slow grind right into a resistance area. As I wrote earlier on S.C., it may look inviting, but only if you want trouble. The 7896 resistance defines the bearish reversal zone which price is just under. If price is going to fake out, it is most likely to do so near this area. The more attractive area is the 7335 to 7213 minor support which is the .618 area relative to the current bullish swing. We don't know if price is going to retrace back here, but if it does, we will be looking for bullish reversal candles. In summary, just because price is moving slowly higher does not make it any safer to enter. Let the market present a sensible opportunity. The worst thing you can do is force a trade. We have been reiterating this idea over and over again over the series of new articles that have been coming out. Wait it out, a more attractive reward/risk opportunity will eventually appear.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
LTCUSD: Resistance Levels Still In Play. Waiting For 114 Level.LTCUSD update: All of these coins are in a tough spot. They are in one of those situations where they may continue to rally just a little further. Usually they rally just enough to attract all of the anxious longs who could not hold out any longer. Once they are all in, the market now has enough gasoline for the potential selling momentum that can lead to the next bearish retrace. In my earlier article on S.C., the point that I made about this market was that it is not in a good position to buy. With the 128 reversal zone boundary near and 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) there is only higher risk of retrace if price explores these areas. Why buy near these short term highs when there is much better potential and probability at lower prices? The question is, how do we know the lower prices will we tested? We don't. We only know two things: IF price goes back into the 114 area, that is a price we anticipate support. If price over reacts and tests the 109 level, then that is an even more attractive area to accumulate inventory and put on a swing trade. Those are two scenarios that offer a better probability than the current situation. Remember consistent performance comes from planning ahead, and selecting opportunities that offer higher probability and better reward/risk. Since these opportunities are filtered by particular criteria, they are not frequent. This is why we would rather miss moves than participate in random price action. Random may pay you now, but it will rob you in the long run. At S.C., we employ a number of strategies to capitalize on sentiment and price momentum across many markets, not just the coins. Quiet markets are perfect for researching other instruments or strategies in preparation for the next opportunity. Check out our portfolios on S.C. to get a better idea of what I mean, and also a good reference for a starting point.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
ETHUSD: No Retrace? No Trade. Waiting For Better Setups.ETHUSD update: Indecisive price action around a potential lower high formation. Since price has not taken out the 625 resistance level, I have no choice but to expect more from the bear side. As I wrote in my ETH article on S.C. earlier today, 625 is the .382 area of the current bearish structure. As long as price stays below this level, it is more likely to consolidate or test lower prices. Long term, I am bullish on this market as well as the other major coins. It is at times like this when it is important to also recognize the short term price action since it is very helpful for staying out of trouble. Based on the current structure, there is no reason to do anything at these levels. I am not going to add to any long term inventory, or take any short term trades. Like I wrote earlier, there is no advantage to taking any risk at these levels. I do not short these markets, so I can only consider risk from the long side. At S.C., we are waiting to see IF these markets choose to retest the lows. The high probability level for us is the low 500's into the 471 reversal zone boundary. Remember, we do not know if price will retest this area, but we are prepared if the opportunity materializes. We don't predict, we play probabilities. In summary, quiet times in the market are great times to prepare. Research other coins, check out our portfolios at S.C. and see how we are building inventory. When the market offers more attractive prices, we are prepared with a plan. What is your plan?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: Bearish Trend Line Encourages Test Of Low 7Ks.BTCUSD update: Price action is some what quiet near the most recent peak. There is an inside bar now present on this time frame which can turn into a sell signal quickly. As I wrote in my report on S.C. earlier today, the bearish trend line is still in effect. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. This market is in a tricky area. If buyers hold up, price can produce a shallow higher low and squeeze higher and break the bearish trend line. If price takes out the 7413 inside bar low, that can invite further bearish momentum which can take price back to the low 7Ks. Based on the technical structures in place, it appears price is more likely to lean more toward the bearish side on the short term. I am all for being bullish, but two things need to happen in order to prove this market is in a sustained rally. First, the trend line needs to be cleared. Second, the 8185 resistance level needs to be taken out. This is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Keep in mind price can go as low as 6904 which is the reversal zone boundary and still be in a position to reverse sharply. It is a matter of waiting for the price action to confirm. In my earlier report on S.C., I also compare inventory building with swing trading. If this market pushes the 7K low, there will be an opportunity for both types of strategies. In summary, at this point I am just waiting for the next swing trade while accumulating other coins for long term inventory. S.C. is where I will share the next trade idea for this market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
LTCUSD: New Low Or Double Bottom Formation?LTCUSD update: After a slight retrace today, it appears the coins are poised to retest their recent lows. As I wrote in my earlier ETH report on S.C., there is no reason to be stuck hoping. If a sell signal appears earlier than expected, then it is time to adjust. My recent ETH swing trade long was exited for a smaller profit. I wrote about a bearish trend line that is still in play. Litecoin has the same situation. 124 is the location of the bearish trend line and price has rejected it. Here is one paragraph of my LTC report that I published on S.C. earlier today: "Keep in mind the 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) is what price needs to compromise in order to prove that bullish momentum on the larger magnitude is in effect. Until this occurs, bullish potential is limited and why it is a good idea to be conservative with swing trade profit targets when the next buy signal appears." There is also a bearish reversal zone boundary defined by the 128 level. As long as this lower high formation stays intact, it is reasonable to expect a retest of the low 100s. In summary, as price attempts to revisit the recent low, we will be watching for reversals. Particularly in the 105 to 100 support area. This is where the highest probability exists for a bullish pattern. The idea is to capture a piece of the next retrace higher, and possibly hold if it evolves into a larger time frame trade.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
AUDUSD: Bears Can Take This Market To .7400 Or Lower.AUDUSD update: Although this pair has demonstrated some recent strength, it is still being dominated by bearish momentum. Along with the other U.S. Dollar crosses, this market is likely to push the .7400 area low. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. The high at .7605 is the most recent peak which is relatively lower than the previous high around .7813. A short term retrace such as the one off the .7400 area low can be confusing or even tempting to buy. Keep in mind, timing minor higher lows is a feasible strategy but only for day trading in my opinion. Since the bigger picture momentum is bearish, it is possible to capture maybe 30 pips on an intraday retrace, but you must be on top of it since potential is more on the bear side. Often, the higher probability strategy is to either wait for price to retest a resistance again which is around the .7563 area (.382 of recent bearish structure). Or wait for a continuation pattern such as an inside bar for an entry on the side of the momentum. The first potential target for a short is in the .7450 area. The second is the .7374 reversal zone boundary. These levels offer an idea of how low this market can go if a short signal appears. In summary, knowing the reward/risk potential of your time frame is key to choosing a trade. When counter trend setups appear, they carry much greater risk since so much is working against you. If you take the higher risk trade, you must compensate with more conservative targets and smaller time frames in order to increase your chances of coming out with a profitable trade. This is the realm of the day trader and is not a good idea for the less experienced trader, especially in the forex markets. I am watching this pair for a swing trade setup on the short side, but there is nothing to report yet. I will issue the signal on S.C. if anything worthwhile appears.
by MarcPMarkets
3
BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Bears In Control. Watching 544 Area For Next Support.ETHUSD update: Price has taken out the reversal zone boundary at 614 and has gone as low as the 544 support zone. At this time, there is no swing trade setup present which makes short term decision making simple. As mentioned in other recent articles, environments like this call for the position trade mentality. A setup is a formation, and a pin bar is what provides the confirmation and trigger for entry. A pin bar alone is not a setup, even if it occurs at an attractive level. Candlestick patterns appear randomly throughout a chart. What gives a candlestick any value is the location of where it is appearing and that is where predetermined levels come in. Reversal zone boundaries are levels that define an area where the probability of reversal is greatest. If price goes above or below these zones, and never reversed, it means stand aside and let the momentum play out until price finds the next level. This is what happened at the 614 level. Price did not even hesitate until it found buyers at the 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). The pin bar tells us that buyers are interested here but there is no formation which means the criteria for a long is not present. Especially now that the pin bar has been established and price gave it back relatively quickly is a sign that bearish momentum is likely to continue which means avoid any swing trade longs until stability proves itself. Environments like this are not completely void of opportunity though. In my Ethereium article on S.C. earlier today, I go on to explain more about the concept of inventory building and fishing for fear with limit orders under the market. Cost averaging in these markets is similar to stacking gold and silver coins. In summary, unless the current candle closes strong (unlikely), it is within reason to expect price to retest the 530s or possibly lower. The 544 to 464 support zone is wide and it may take some time (week or two) before this market can stabilize. This will obviously require the entire coin market to find buyers since they all pretty much move together. Do not get sucked into the pessimism which this community is up to its ears in. If you are a long term believer, then fearful markets offer wholesale price opportunities to build an inventory. Embrace the risk and think independently and do not use margin. Ask yourself this: if you bought a gold bar for $1300 and the price goes to 1K, are you going to dump it? If yes, I know someone who will buy it from you.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
EURUSD: Reversal Signs On Major Support. 1.1800's Within Reason.EURUSD update: The swing trade long from 1.1745 is now in play. In this report I am going to explain the reasoning behind this long, and what adjustments to consider in the face of conflicting price action if it nears the bearish trend line. This trade was called on S.C. around 10:30 AM EST today. The price action over recent weeks has been clearly bearish. For whatever fundamental reason that you want to point to, the US dollar has been surging. Often during times of prolonged momentum, it is very easy to lose sight of broader structure. When you zoom out and look at the overall structure of this pair, you will notice that the 1.1708 area is the .382 of the entire bullish move since the December 2016 lows. This is important information because it means this level is a major support. One that offers a greater probability that price retraces higher, at least temporarily. On this time frame, temporarily means a retest of the bearish trend line near the high 1.1700s or even a push toward the 1.2011 resistance which is the .382 level relative to the recent bearish structure. Since momentum is still generally bearish, it makes more sense to place a target at a much more conservative level and that is why I chose 1.1823 instead of the high 1.1800s or even higher. Keep in mind what makes this trade worth the risk is the potential. 1.2011 is around 300 pips from current prices. Capturing just 25% of that is very reasonable. There are other factors that are in play that justified this trade signal. There is a minor failed low formation defined by 1.1690 and an inside bar on the 12 hour chart. The trigger was when the 12 hour high was taken out. There is also an inside bar on this time frame as well which will trigger at 1.1751 for those still interested. Since momentum still favors the bearish side, price conflict may appear earlier than the target. The area to consider: the 1.1790s. If a bearish pin bar appears off of the 1.1790s, that would be a good time to exit for an earlier profit. The 1.1683 stop is based on the 1.1690 low with a little extra room to help reduce the possibility of a fake out. At the moment, price is hesitating just above the 1.1700 area which is not the best sign. Keep in mind, if this market cannot get it together and mount a retrace over the next 12 to 15 hours, I will more than likely exit the position, even for a smaller loss. I do not want to be long for the upcoming holiday and these type of reversals should move favorably quickly, if it does not, it is a red flag. Taking trades with higher probability and potential are one thing, but the key to remember is winners must be larger than losers. There are times when adjustments may call for taking less profit than the amount risked, and that is fine. We can't control profits, but we can control risk. If you keep risk relatively small, and mitigate further when the market offers the chance by adjusting to new information and signals, that is how to average 2:1 or better reward/risk over time. It is possible to have a string of losses, but if you are following these best practices, your winners should be making up for them and then some. Questions and comments welcome.
Long
by MarcPMarkets
8
Are You Sure ? -Everybody is going to 9k ! - I said: Bull Trap !Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. While 99% of Trading View authors go with the Wind, changing their idea everyday, Moving Water stays on track, and now, Big Fall, first predicted on April 21, is ongoing. Spotted another bull trap, on May 18, to around $ 8400, and did go a little higher, to $ 8600, (my bad), but now price is about to break down the $ 7800 support. Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _________________________________________ ADVICE: -------- MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be a long flow if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to do your own research when placing your orders and stop loss. What I am posting here is just the tendency of the market, from what I see, but I am just trying to understand the market, not giving any service or advice to trade. STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is Helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- M.W. - Moving Water
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
159
GBPUSD: Bullish At 1.3329 If Price Can Do This One Thing.GBPUSD update: Bearish momentum has been reluctant but this pair has persisted lower. Price is now nearing a very significant support level of 1.3329. Being over a hundred pips away means there is a lot of room for messy price action, but we are still looking for a swing trade long setup. 1.3329 is the .382 of the bullish structure that is relative to the low made in December of 2016. This means this level carries a lot of weight, but also means the margin of error around the level is very wide. Price can break below by 50 pips or more and then find buyers, so expecting precision in this area is not the best idea. Also keep in mind, if this bearish momentum persists, it is within reason for price to retest the 1.3051 reversal zone boundary. The point being there is a lot of room for this market to breath if it is going to find a short term bottom. This bigger picture view helps to highlight the potential for day trade shorts since that is what momentum favors. In terms of swing trades though, risk of reversal starts to increase dramatically especially below 1.3329. This means do not short and hold. At S.C., we are evaluating this situation for bullish reversal patterns which are nonexistent at the moment. The reason is if price action can construct a reversal formation, the potential is high since the first target is at the 1.3770 area which is the .382 of the current bearish structure. We are not looking to capture 400 pips, but a quarter of that is within reason, and worth it if we can keep the risk at 50 pips or less. The EURUSD is also in a similar situation, and we are evaluating opportunities in the Gold market as well (obviously a play on the Dollar). Check S.C. for recent articles on how we are navigating these markets.
by MarcPMarkets
7
LTCUSD: Wholesale Prices In Play But Only For Contrarians.LTCUSD update: This swing trade has been stopped out at 123.50. This broad market weakness is what scares weak hands out of their positions, and now that this position is stopped out, we will be looking for the next opportunity to buy back in once stability returns. A few days ago I wrote an article about Litecoin and issued a trade call on S.C. The entry was a limit order at 133.50 and the stop 123.50. I issued this call while it was trading near 140. The scenario that this market is presenting at the moment is the reason why I placed a limit order under the market. I did not know if this retest of the low was going to happen, I just wanted to better positioned in case it did. This stop out is just a cost of doing business, and it eliminates exposure to a broad sell off (price went as low as 116). Keep in mind, the stop order is specifically for the risk presented by this particular swing trade and has no bearing on any long term positions that I have for this market. The 132.72 and 125.68 levels are reversal zone boundaries. They present a high probability area where price is more likely to reverse, but there is no guarantee it will. This outcome is part of the risk that is taken when placing a limit order under the market and not waiting for particular confirmation. Keep in mind the sub 125 levels are what I like to call wholesale prices. It is like when your favorite store puts inventory up for sale because they need to get rid of it. These lows are attractive prices, but in order to get back in for another swing trade long, a reversal pattern will need to appear. There is no reason to panic or be stressed out by this price action. Remember when a market looks its worst, that is often the best time to buy. Think like a contrarian, not like the crowd. I wrote in an earlier analysis about this market that the 105 to 100 level is really where cause for concern is relevant. The 100 level is not only a psychological support, but a break below would negate the bullish Elliott Wave count on the broader time frame. Even in a scenario where price goes below 100, the only thing it would mean for me is not to buy more. Since I do not use margin in these markets, I look at them more like stacking physical gold or silver, which means you do not let go of inventory at lows. Let the weak hands blow out their positions and react for whatever reason. BTC went to 6K a few months back, only to climb back to 9K. As long as these markets are not pushing any major lows, it is just a matter of time before they find stability. One important point that Andrew pointed out in one of his recent BTC articles was that in order to benefit from sell offs like this, you must believe in the future of these coins in order to add to your inventory with confidence. If you are in this for a quick profit, then you are better off waiting for a swing trade which has precisely defined risk and not cost averaging. We are going to be watching carefully for opportunities to add to portfolio positions as well as for new swing trades once stability reestablishes itself across these markets.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
LTCUSD: Nearing Buy Trigger. Why The Limit Order?LTCUSD update: Price retreating from the 140 level as the noise in the coins continues. Now that a second lower high has been established, converging trend lines can be drawn to indicate a descending wedge. Formations like these around significant support zones are places to look for strength. If you read my recent LTC article on S.C., I issued a specific trade call using a limit order under the market. I made this call while price was trading above 137.84. My limit order (see S.C.) still stands. How did I know the market would pull back? I didn't. I am looking to capitalize on a very specific condition that either the market will express, or not. Since BTC has been very noisy recently, I figured let's see if the noise persists. I do know that 132.72 and 125.68 are reversal zone boundaries. These are high probability support areas that price is more likely to find support and retrace from. If I am going to buy with a blind limit order, I would rather do it closer to these levels. The other factor that helps me place an order like this is something called patience. I do not care about missing moves, because I know that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. If the market blew through 140 and never looked back, then I miss the move. Am I losing anything? If you said yes, then you still have much to learn. At this point, the order has never gotten filled. Missing the move is still a possibility, but as you can see, there is a better chance it gets filled soon. Like I wrote on S.C., focus on probability, not profitability and you will find yourself in better trades. If I get filled, I know there is a higher probability that price will find support nearby and retrace toward the 150 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). I would rather take the risk in the low 130s than at 140. Jumping into a market for the fear of missing a move is a reactive decision. These impulsive decisions are at the core of the herd mentality. Greed and fear are what drive order flow and in order to capitalize on this nature, you must not think in the same terms. By placing an order under the market, I am positioning to benefit from this irrationality. Keep in mind, I can still be wrong and the market can continue much lower, but that is why I have a stop in place. Check S.C. for updates this market.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
EURUSD: Key Level For Potential Reversal Back Toward 1.2000.EURUSD update: This pair is poised to go lower based upon the bearish momentum in play on this time frame. The 1.1764 level is still in play and we are watching price action around this area carefully for a bullish reversal. On S.C., we evaluated this market on Friday and described details of a potential swing trade long. That trade idea is still plausible, but can be negated if price pushes dramatically lower. Keep in mind, current price action has been fluctuating within the 1.1937 to 1.1772 support zone which is the .618 area of the bullish structure that peaked in January. The fact that price has penetrated this wide zone is certainly a bearish sign, but if 1.1764 holds, and the bearish trend line breaks, a retrace back toward the 1.1930 area is within reason. If bearish momentum continues without any interruption, then this pair can retest the 1.1630s before any supportive price action would be worth evaluating. Remember, we are not making predictions, we are simply evaluating probabilities. And a trade signal off of this reversal zone is contingent on a reversal formation. No formation, no trade. The market decides, all we do is measure, recognize and adjust. Keep an eye on S.C. to see if a signal goes off in this market.
by MarcPMarkets
3
ETHUSD: Navigating The Noise Around A Double Bottom.ETHUSD update: Tricky price action off of the 656 support may leave you confused. Is this a double bottom formation off of a predetermined support? In this brief report I will share an idea to consider when it comes to evaluating a position. The 714 level happens to be the .382 resistance of the previous bearish structure. This level is clearly in play in terms of keeping price from advancing any further. Also this price action is a function of BTC not being able to sustain consistent bullish momentum either. Even though this lack of follow through may be confusing, the 656 level (.382 of recent bullish swing from 358 low) is still exhibiting a double bottom formation. Along with that, the formation is a higher low relative to the 358 low. This implies an overall context of strength. At S.C., we haven't issued any trade signals because price action has not met the conservative criteria that we are waiting for. For the more aggressive, here is one idea to consider in a situation like this: place a limit order way below the market. Put it somewhere between 645 and 620. If this market experiences a panic spike, you get some at a great price. The premise here is you are capitalizing on the randomness while betting that the overall structure stays intact. Since price can easily fall through this area, placing a limit order like this carries a lot more risk. So to compensate, take a fraction of your normal swing or position trade size. Like 1/3 or 1/2. Andrew explained this idea nicely in his recent BTC article on S.C. Check it out for a similar idea in that market. In summary, price action is noisy at the moment, but a bullish bias still exists. Placing limit orders under a market like this can get you a good price IF the structure holds. If it does not, you must either blow it out for a loss, or since it is a smaller position to begin with, just hold on and plan to add when stability does materialize eventually. This inventory management method works best when NOT using margin. If you don't understand the effects of margin, avoid this method because it can lead to account wipe out. Whether price gives you an entry on a panic spike, or you have to hold through a deeper correction, it is the smaller size that keeps your risk in check. As market conditions improve, you will have opportunities to add to it. We use this method often at S.C. for these markets, metals and even stocks.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
AUDUSD: Avoid Noise And Let Market Find More Attraxtive Level.AUDUSD update: Consolidating price action after the recent leg of bearish momentum found buyers at the .7400 area. This is probably the most random type of price behavior a market can exhibit which means one thing for us: avoid. Momentum is still bearish even though recent price structure offers the appearance of some minor stability. Often these type of formations within this context serve as continuation patterns. My recent report in the GBP highlighted a similar condition which has been proven correct so far as price has explored lower levels. For the purpose of issuing a signal to our followers on S.C., the .7374 and .7351 reversal zone boundaries serve as the general area to evaluate potential reversal patterns. This means on a day trading basis, there is plenty of potential short opportunity, but you really must be nimble to avoid getting caught in any noise that is occurring on this time frame. The .7564 (.382 of recent bearish structure) and areas above offer much more attractive reward/risk for any potential swing trades on the short side. In summary, range bound markets may be tempting at times, and may even offer opportunities on smaller time frames. From a swing trading standpoint, randomness is high which means our criteria for a long or short is far from being met. Let the market decide where it wants to go and until it offers a more attractive scenario, there is no reason to take any action. Check out S.C. for a recent update on EUR/USD and Gold markets as well. Questions and comments welcome.
by MarcPMarkets
2