Get started

Bearishmomentum

BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Attractive For? Buyers.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is still asserting itself and price may be entering the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Often movements like this will have the attention seekers out in full force screaming that 3K is coming. Pay attention to the price action and nothing else. In terms of probability, price is now in an area very attractive for buying, not selling. The two most important levels at this moment are the 6K psychological support and the 5956 reversal zone boundary. It is the extreme price scenario that I have been writing about. Since the move is quick, their will be many weak hands dumping their coins at the lows. Great time to be looking to buy. Now keep in mind, I do acknowledge the bearish momentum. Lower highs often lead to lower lows, but what makes this situation unique is the broader location. Price is in a broad support zone. 8171 to 4983 is the .618 of the entire bullish move measured from the 150 lows. I have been writing about this area constantly because it should not be overlooked. Even though it it is very wide, and price can move lower within it, it is still a place to be accumulating. The reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 are very probable if there is not a quick recovery over the next few hours. At S.C. we are managing long term inventory and not selling it. As I wrote previously we have been watching for an opportunity like this to add, but carefully. We are specifically waiting for some form of reversal either off the 6K support, or within the reversal zone boundaries below. Otherwise we wait to see how much lower this market can go. In summary, what has occurred on a chart is now history. Do not make the typical herd mistake of projecting old information forward and instead consider the probabilities. At 18K, we knew the probability of higher prices was limited, and at these levels, we have the opposite scenario. People can say whatever they want or feel, but we only listen to what the market says as it expresses itself in the charts. Extreme prices often lead to new opportunities and at S.C. we are waiting for these to appear. It starts with the level, and then the formations. If criteria is met, you know where we will share it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHUSD: Lower High Obvious But Don't Ignore Support Zone.ETHUSD update: Price has reached the bearish trend line and is now hesitating. This is not unusual and was expected, that is why we placed our swing trade target at 540. The question is: what is price more likely to do from here? Lower low? Higher low? Or continuation higher? In case you have not been following our swing trade on S.C., it reached its 55 point profit target 2 days ago. The selection of that target was partly based on the bearish trend line. The bearish trend line has been slightly compromised, but not enough to change our short term outlook. Bearish structure still dominates the short term momentum and until that changes, we are going to be very conservative as far as putting on new swing trades and their respective profit targets. The short term bearish argument is as follows. If the 516 inside bar low is taken out, followed by the newly established bullish trend line, then this market is more likely to retest the 458 reversal zone boundary. In an extreme sell off, price can even test the 423 reversal zone boundary. This is the type of price action we wait for when it comes to our inventory building strategies. Again, the selling scenarios are all IFs. Meanwhile, price is still within a broad support zone. The 544 to 464 area is the .618 of a recent bullish structure. As imprecise as this area may be, it cannot be ignored. It does present a chance that a higher low or failed low formation can materialize here. This is what the bears are not seeing and will be seriously caught off guard. Great scenario for people who hold inventory. Another sign that canot be ignored is if the bullish trend line stays intact. A long signal off of the current inside bars can also catch many by surprise. If this happens, it will most likely be lead by a similar signal in BTC. In summary, before any of these markets show real signs of recovery, they need to take out their trend resistance levels. In this case it is the 625 level which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Until then, we are likely to see wide range bound markets that do not make any real progress. At S.C., we are not convinced of a completley bearish market because of 2 conditions. The first is the general bullish price location. The second is the premise that this market is forming a broad higher low formation which is also still in line with the Elliott Wave count I posted recently. This type of environment is not without its opportunities, but patience and realistic expectations are key. We let the market tell its story and adjust to it, always evaluating the risks vs. potential rewards. No matter where it goes, we have a plan of action for that scenario. Your own plan will serve you better than anything else. As I have been reminding our followers at S.C., use quiet time to plan ahead and to expand your knowledge. You will be much better prepared for when these markets get busy and the reactionary crowd returns.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
LTCUSD: Bearish Price Action Near Bullish Reversal Zone.LTCUSD update: A strong outside bar has appeared in this market which can be the beginning of the next retest of the bearish trend line. The current hesitation though can be cause for concern, depending on how the candle closes. Keep in mind, this market is following BTC which means even in the face of bearish structure, the greater potential remains bullish. The bearish trend line is still in play around the 108 level. Beyond that, the 125 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still stands. Price still has a ways to go before we can get excited about any significant bullish gains. Until it takes out those levels, it has the 90 reversal zone boundary holding up any attempts lower. This is the area to watch for accumulating opportunities. With the price as low as it is, BTC does not have to go far for this market to spike higher. Look at ETH. At S.C., we called a swing trade long back on 6/13 which hit its 55 point profit target earlier today. BTC did not do anything spectacular, yet ETH outperformed. The same type of behavior can take this market by surprise as well. In summary, short term formations may be bearish, but it is the probability of the bigger picture that carries more weight at these prices. The major coins are in an area where a large magnitude failed low can be forming. Like I wrote in a previous BTC article, these markets are in a hot spot, all they need is a surprise catalyst and off they go. Most importantly you must be able to make your own decision. You must do it based on your own reasoning, not what the "experts" think. The herd of analysts are calling for BTC 3K. Now? Why weren't they calling for this when BTC was at 18K? If you read the reports I was writing at that time, I was promoting caution and staying flat while the crowd was feverishly buying. If you find yourself confused by the conflict, then avoid these markets all together. Eventually they will work themselves out and make more sense, but by that time, you will be paying much higher prices. Avoid the noise and follow the charts on the bigger picture. That is where you will find more clarity.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
ETHUSD: Broader Wave Count Still Bullish. 600 Break Is Key.ETHUSD update: When the day to day momentum dries up as is the case with these coins, it is always helpful to zoom out. This is where Elliott Wave offers a lot of value because it shows us where we are on the bigger picture map, and most likely where this market is going. People give Elliott Wave a hard time because they expect precision and that is not what it offers. Instead it provides a sense of location. It helps to answer "where are we?". And what needs to happen in order to make some sort of progress? In the case of ETH, if the current structure bottoms out and establishes a Primary Wave 2, it will be setting up for a Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 3. Basic rules of an impulse dictate that Wave 3 is never the shortest wave. Also Wave 3's and 5's have a tendency to extend. This all means there is a lot of bullish potential baked into these markets over the long term. In order for this broad scenario to begin to confirm, the 598 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure relative to the 828 high) needs to be taken out. In other words, once the 600 psychological area is cleared, this market will more than likely be in a subwave 1 of the Primary Wave 3. If this market continues lower, it can go as low as the 380s and still be within the rule that says Wave 2 does not go below the start of Wave 1. This is why Wave 2's and Wave 4's are so tricky, especially at their extremes. In summary, as we have been writing on S.C. about how quiet markets call for preparation. Do not force trades, instead define scenarios and be prepared if the market aligns, or if it doesn't. We are not here to predict, only trade probabilities and manage risk. No indicators are required to accomplish this, but a decision making process is. Elliott Wave is an effective analytical framework to use especially for long term perspective. It does not make any promises, but it does provide a road map to compare scenarios against. Take advantage of this quiet time in the market and learn the basics. It is a big first step in developing your own perspective and that is more valuable than any ideas you get from an "expert".
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
BTCUSD: Conflciting Signals? Bigger Picture Potential Bullish.BTCUSD update: Symmetrical triangle has appeared after a series of inside bars. This continuation pattern implies lower prices, but the bigger picture location makes for a very conflicted technical situation. The break of this triangle points increases the possibility of a retest of the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Or just above that at the 6005 historical support. The conflict comes in when you zoom out and observe the price location. The 6005 to 6565 levels are both significant supports where buyers have appeared previously. 8171 to 4983 is the largest magnitude .618 support zone that is relative to the entire bullish structure originating from the 150 lows. And the failed low configuration relative to the April lows. These broad considerations point to a greater probability of a large recovery move. As I wrote in my S.C. article on ETH earlier, these markets are in position to rally, all they need is a spark. The "spark" or catalyst is something a chart will not help you see. Usually they come out of no where and take the market by surprise. Kind of like the way Draghi hammered the Euro 300 pips the other day. What you must decide is what time frame you are betting on. The short term is still showing signs of bearish momentum with the trend line and 7790 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still intact. At S.C., we are not day trading. Swing and position trades contain the scope of our evaluation, expectations and trade decisions. This means we are still betting on the bigger picture. We are betting that the attractiveness of the broader location outweighs the small time frame momentum. If price pushes lower, we take more pain and get stopped out and will simply look for an opportunity to get back in. Otherwise we are positioned to benefit nicely if the a bullish spark takes this market by surprise. In summary, we don't bet on opinions, we bet on probabilities. Any updates will appear on S.C., follow along for a better idea of the decision making process we use, especially in situations like this.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTC- Bad News Spreading - 5th Target on the Corner - 5k PossibleHi, Followers and Friends !! I am very Happy, I have achieved my main goal so far: I Have Saved Some People !! and I open with a quote: "you are really doing something very important!! i am following you 2 month now. and i start applying your advices since a month. could not be happier to protect my small capital from loses at this stage of the market. THANK YOU AND WAITING TO BE YOUR STUDENT." TRADING TECHNIQUE HAS 2 MAIN STAGES: 1=> BE ABLE TO NOT LOSE MONEY (Not falling on Traps and getting out if analysis does not work, before loss happens) 2=> MAKE SOME PROFIT (Getting on the Wave at the very beginning with some risk but with 70% or more Probability.) For Those Who Read All My Charts, you already know many Traps Types that 95% of traders fall in, and lose everything. Once we learn to not lose money, we can start to learn how to trade with some confidence to make some money. About BTC = It is still Bearish Trend, still has room for more fall, even further from my final target $ 5730. Moving Water Spotted a possible drop to 5k. Analysis is not finished yet, but Stay Tuned it is not out of the question. Let's Be a Team I Know all of my Followers Will Also help me some day and be able to share something I need to learn. I really Like what I am doing and I hope WE CAN WORK TOGETHER and CREATE AN ELITE CRYPTO GROUP with serious and hard work traders. HOPE THE BEST TO YOU ALL. M.W. Good Luck and Good Profit ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) ___________________________________ => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => MORE INFORMATION: check Related Ideas Below. => PLESE: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
45
BTCUSD: Next Stop Low 6K's Unless Reversal Candle Appears Now.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is confirmed as price is now testing an important support level. At this time there are no signs or structures that say this market wants to retrace. That does not mean it won't, but the probability is low. Unless a bullish reversal candle appears, I am anticipating a test of the low 6Ks. I wrote about 6565 area in my previous BTC report on S.C. It is where buyers appeared back around the beginning of April. The only evidence that there is any buying now is the previous candle which is a bullish inside bar. As I wrote in my earlier report today on S.C., that was not enough to justify any risk taking, especially in the face of bearish structures like the trend line still in play. In order for this market to demonstrate that a broader bullish trend is more likely in progress, it has to take out the 7790 level. This is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. As long as this market continues to push lows, this level will continue to adjust. This level also serves as a reasonable target for short term swing trades. Even more reasonable than that is the low 7Ks where the bearish trend line is located. These are the areas we will be considering as targets if this market manages to establish a reversal off of current levels. In summary, markets that push dramatic lows will generate all kinds of extreme analysis, media reports and a lot of nonsense. Do not lose sight of the fact that price is probing the 8171 to 4983 large magnitude support zone. I understand it is too wide to draw any meaningful conclusions from in terms of short term timing, BUT it does tells us that if a broader reversal is going to happen, this is a very convenient area. In other words, I would not hold onto any shorts. Always be patient, and if you are holding inventory, stay focused on the big picture. Price can go as low as 5669 and still be in a good position to retrace sharply. These are attractive levels for inventory accumulation. Any adjustments to our S.C. portfolios will be made available there.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
ETHUSD: Support Zone In Play. Waiting For Reversal Formation.ETHUSD update: As the BTC market retraces, the alts follow as usual. This market and Litecoin are now both in very interesting areas for possible swing trade and inventory ideas. The key is to wait for a sign of stability which is absent at the moment. It seems like BTC is in free fall. From 7600 to the mid 6K's in one day can feel a little dramatic. As long as 6K holds, it is nothing more than a shake out. And as weak hands are being shaken out of BTC, they are also being shaken in the alts like this market. Remember, as a price action trader, I do not care why. I only care about what is more likely to happen next and at current levels, a bullish reversal is much more probable. 544 to 464 is the .618 of the recent bullish structure measured from the 374 low. Overlapping the lower level of the area is the 458 reversal zone boundary. IF a bullish reversal can establish itself within this area, a swing trade long idea would be in order. At S.C. that is the area we are monitoring closely for our followers. IF price keeps pushing lower which is also very possible and no reversal appears, we simply do nothing. Eventually stability will return and we can then continue our evaluation from there. There are still two significant bearish structures in place. The trend line and the 625 level which I wrote about extensively on S.C. and on here in recent articles. As long as these structures are in play, it is unreasonable to expect any serious bullish action over the long term at this point. If a swing trade idea develops, it will have a conservative target to compensate for the limited short term bullish potential. Overall, as long as this market stays above 374, then this price action is just a normal corrective move. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for a broader higher low formation as well. You can follow along while most of our articles are freely available.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
LTCUSD: Sitting Inside Reversal Zone. Eyeing Candle Sticks.LTCUSD update: Price has retraced nicely along with the BTC sell off and is now in a very attractive area. Even though short term momentum is still bearish, a bullish retrace back to the 120 area is within reason. Earlier today on S.C., Andrew posted an article on accumulating inventory in this market. If you haven't read it yet, you should check it out because it offers some good bigger picture perspective. My earlier article was about BTC and how candle stick formations can provide the evidence we need to justify a swing trade long. In this chart, there is a spinning top that is almost a pin bar. Along with that, since the low is barely lower than the previous large bear candle, it almost qualifies as an inside bar. Even though these signs are all "almost", they do carry some significance because of the predetermined level it is all happening on. The 104 level is the reversal zone boundary relative to the previous 109 low. If price is going to mount a reversal, this would be the highest probability area for it to happen. The 109 to 105 area has also been one that we closely watch because of previous buying activity. If price can break back above 108.50, a swing trade long is reasonable. The context at the time will determine if we send a trade idea to our followers on S.C. or not. Keep in mind, if BTC decides to test the mid 5Ks which is possible in an extreme bear scenario, this market will likely fall below 100. A close below the 104 reversal zone also cancels out any swing trade long ideas until a new formation appears. In summary, based on the current structure, there is potential for price to retrace back into the 120s. It really depends on the BTC market, but at least price action is beginning to shape up. Watch closely and make sure to follow along on S.C., since that is where we are posting trade updates. And do not forget to check out our info on the inventory strategy that we are big proponents of as well.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
#BTC - UNDER HEAVY RAIN ! Bounce Area? = 4th Target is Hit.Hi, Followers and Friends, So, as we saw on the last chart, DROP IS happened on BTC -9.58% market. => Finally 4th Target HIT ($ 6.900). Thanks for Trusting. Now, it is time for our FINAL TARGET: $ 5.800. But to be safe and get a bounce areas: Conservative: $ 6.500 Normal: $ 6.200 Aggressive: $ 5.900 Remember in order to have your order completed you need to choose a price higher than the market. Good Luck and Good Profit M.W. ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => For MORE INFORMATION check Related Ideas Below. => Feel free to: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. M.W. - Moving Water
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
16
POSSIBLE TARGETS FOR BTC, IT IS FREE - ENJOYHi Trading View, Double Top has been confirmed and now we are on a bear wave. Could be the last one before market decides to go long for a big wave. How cool is the Moving Water? Many people did not believe on the double top, but there it is been draw on the chart. I am sorry if I had so many short charts, a lot of people get angry, but it is not my fault if BTC is falling, since 20K. Believe me, It is not because of me that it has dropped 14k. I really don't have that power, I just can see it, and I would not avoid post a chart because most of people want it to go long. Actually, many people have thank me that they saw my charts before putting all their money, right before it dropped from 20k. But, I also have some LONG charts already, that did work 100% PERFECT (check my history). So, I don't just do SHORT charts. I am still testing the MOVING WATER, and everything here is for free. Let's hope it keeps improving as it is. I decided to spot all the prices that could be reached, and bounced to help your trades. $ 5700 is the bottom for now. I am so happy I have now 830 followers. Thank you all for the support. For more information check the related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
65
BTC - BIG STORM AHEAD !! Bulls Are Now Trapped Waiting Death. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused => Takes (weeks/months) to Complete <= Hi, Followers and Friends, So, as we saw on the last chart, a pause and a correction just happened on BTC market. Now, It is probably time for Number # 3 - DROP TIME. When there is a Down Trend = Correction is Up. When there is a Up Trend = Correction is Down. Since BTC is still on a Downtrend, correction was up, and now many bulls are trapped, because price should not go any higher. At first, on May 25th, I posted a possibility for a Bull Trap to 8k. But then, on May 29th, I saw a very strong resistance at 7.800, so I told everyone that 8k was out, and that price could not reach 8k. So far, this bull trap could only hit $ 7.770. Now, correction is stressed out, and there is no more power to get price higher than $7800 resistance. So, if there is no result, and Bears feel Weakness, that start to come for another massacre. MA 100 is now in charge of the Daily Chart. It is still possible that all the Bulls try one last attempt before dying, trying to survive. So, let's see if it is going to be a calm death or if there will be a resistance. But, M.W. still shows that $ 7.800 is the limit as a resistance for BTC now. It is so weird how many people keep using higher lows to do technical analysis on daily charts. Some types of charts and only on specific moments, could help, not like this. So, because they see higher lows on BTC on daily chart, they just think price is going to 13K now. It is not time to go long yet. Hold On, time for that is probably very near. Beginners and Intermediate just wait for price to get lower to buy, others check below. Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: -------- => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => For MORE INFORMATION check Related Ideas Below. => Feel free to: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. M.W. - Moving Water
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
101
BTCUSD: Weak Hands Get Shaken As Price Enters Support Zone.BTCUSD update: Finally some movement. Looks like the the bears rejected the minor resistance area that I wrote about in my previous report. Even though it may look concerning, this move is welcome because it brings the opportunity of a swing trade long idea that much closer. The 7330 to 7212 support zone is relative to the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. There was also a minor reversal zone boundary in the 7400's that got blown right through. The point of knowing these levels is not to expect price to simply reach one and turn, rather it is to be prepared in case a reversal sign appears. I always tell my readers, one of the steps in the trade process that we employ at S.C. is evaluating predetermined levels. This is dramatically different from "predicting" moves which so many are still bent on doing. We don't predict, we measure probability. In my report yesterday on S.C., I wrote that even though price action had established some bullish structure, the problem was it was climbing right into a resistance zone. I even wrote that it could have broken above, but the probability favored bears. The main reason is the 8100 area resistance which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. And here we are, 300 points lower. Again I did not know this was going to happen, but I did know to avoid any longs in that resistance area. Best practices dictate to buy supports, not resistances. Speaking of supports, now price is finally revisiting some interesting levels. The key is to WAIT for a reversal pattern to materialize for a swing trade. Even though potential still favors the bear side on the short term, a bounce off current levels can reasonably take price back up into the 7500s or higher. Certainly worth risking 150 points for. Besides that, another bounce off this general area will only add more emphasis to the 6K area broad higher low formation. Overall, be patient and if you are really feeling aggressive, the 7200 to 6904 area is a great place to accumulate inventory. Keep an eye out on S.C. because this is where we will share any portfolio ideas. Otherwise, on the short term, now is the time to start paying attention to levels like the mid to low 7200s, 7K and 6904 for reversals. If the market can meet our criteria, a swing trade long idea will be in order. We don't know if the market will reverse, but we will be prepared if the opportunity presents itself. All the information we need is in the price action.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
38
LTCUSD: The Levels We Are Looking To Buy Are Lower.LTCUSD update: Tight consolidation as this market waits for BTC to choose a direction. There is a lot of structural conflict in this area and the best thing to do is let these markets figure themselves out. There are no worthwhile signals to capitalize on anyway. As you can see on the chart, price rejected the 128 reversal zone boundary. It has also found support off of the 117 to 113 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). An adjusted bullish trend line is still in play which means as long as it holds, price can still grind higher. Even though this may be the case, there are no long setups to talk about. And as long as the 138 resistance level (.382 of broad bearish structure) stays intact, it is not reasonable to expect a sustained rally any time soon. In times of price conflict, the best thing to do is avoid trading. Even on the inventory building side, these are not low enough prices to make them attractive. Also keep in mind BTC is still fluctuating near a resistance zone which means there is still more bearish potential than bullish. At S.C., our plan is to see if these markets offer opportunities by retesting significant lows. In this market those would be the 113 or sub 108 areas. If price can develop reversal candles in these areas, a swing trade long idea may be in order. Otherwise we are not initiating any new longs. Quiet markets are good for two things: researching undervalued high potential alts and quietly accumulating them. You want to buy them when the herd is not excited or not looking, NOT when they are being hyped by every coin blog in existence. On S.C. we always make it a point to write about the ones that we see the most potential in. Instead of getting caught in forced trades, research your next possibility.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Lower High Established. 544 Support Now In Focus.ETHUSD update: Lower high scenario is unfolding as anticipated. The 625 resistance, although slightly broken, basically held and now the bears are in control. The next support area to watch for any bullish reversals is 544. I have been writing about this retrace. My BTC report on S.C. yesterday talked about the slow grind into the bear zone. It is not that I knew this pull back was going to happen, I knew the probability was high. Knowing this helps me to avoid long swing trades in these markets, especially when they appear to be "breaking out". The 625 level is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. Until this level is decisively taken out, this market (along with the rest of the coins) are going to have a hard time making any bullish progress. The question now is: how low do they go and when to buy? The first level we are waiting for at S.C. is the 544 area. 544 to 464 is the .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish structure coming from the 374 low. A reversal candle in this area will more than likely justify a new swing trade idea. If price falls through the mid to lower 500's, then the 471 reversal zone boundary becomes the focus. If price is going to reverse higher, this price area offers the greatest probability for it to follow through. Remember, a bearish trend line is still intact which means short term bullish ideas offer less potential. This is why we exited our recent swing trade so early on S.C. We are not opposed to longs, but they will come with more conservative targets. In summary, be patient and do not mix up strategies. Inventory building is dramatically different from short term swing trading. It is possible to be bullish long term (inventory) and bearish short term (swing or day trading). If you find this confusing, that is normal. It took me many years to differentiate between the two styles. Still confused? Pick one style and stick to it. At S.C., our short term plan is to wait for the 544 to 464 support zone and evaluate price action from there.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: Lower High Formation In Progress. Watching For 7335.BTCUSD update: This market is in a slow grind right into a resistance area. As I wrote earlier on S.C., it may look inviting, but only if you want trouble. The 7896 resistance defines the bearish reversal zone which price is just under. If price is going to fake out, it is most likely to do so near this area. The more attractive area is the 7335 to 7213 minor support which is the .618 area relative to the current bullish swing. We don't know if price is going to retrace back here, but if it does, we will be looking for bullish reversal candles. In summary, just because price is moving slowly higher does not make it any safer to enter. Let the market present a sensible opportunity. The worst thing you can do is force a trade. We have been reiterating this idea over and over again over the series of new articles that have been coming out. Wait it out, a more attractive reward/risk opportunity will eventually appear.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
LTCUSD: Resistance Levels Still In Play. Waiting For 114 Level.LTCUSD update: All of these coins are in a tough spot. They are in one of those situations where they may continue to rally just a little further. Usually they rally just enough to attract all of the anxious longs who could not hold out any longer. Once they are all in, the market now has enough gasoline for the potential selling momentum that can lead to the next bearish retrace. In my earlier article on S.C., the point that I made about this market was that it is not in a good position to buy. With the 128 reversal zone boundary near and 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) there is only higher risk of retrace if price explores these areas. Why buy near these short term highs when there is much better potential and probability at lower prices? The question is, how do we know the lower prices will we tested? We don't. We only know two things: IF price goes back into the 114 area, that is a price we anticipate support. If price over reacts and tests the 109 level, then that is an even more attractive area to accumulate inventory and put on a swing trade. Those are two scenarios that offer a better probability than the current situation. Remember consistent performance comes from planning ahead, and selecting opportunities that offer higher probability and better reward/risk. Since these opportunities are filtered by particular criteria, they are not frequent. This is why we would rather miss moves than participate in random price action. Random may pay you now, but it will rob you in the long run. At S.C., we employ a number of strategies to capitalize on sentiment and price momentum across many markets, not just the coins. Quiet markets are perfect for researching other instruments or strategies in preparation for the next opportunity. Check out our portfolios on S.C. to get a better idea of what I mean, and also a good reference for a starting point.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
ETHUSD: No Retrace? No Trade. Waiting For Better Setups.ETHUSD update: Indecisive price action around a potential lower high formation. Since price has not taken out the 625 resistance level, I have no choice but to expect more from the bear side. As I wrote in my ETH article on S.C. earlier today, 625 is the .382 area of the current bearish structure. As long as price stays below this level, it is more likely to consolidate or test lower prices. Long term, I am bullish on this market as well as the other major coins. It is at times like this when it is important to also recognize the short term price action since it is very helpful for staying out of trouble. Based on the current structure, there is no reason to do anything at these levels. I am not going to add to any long term inventory, or take any short term trades. Like I wrote earlier, there is no advantage to taking any risk at these levels. I do not short these markets, so I can only consider risk from the long side. At S.C., we are waiting to see IF these markets choose to retest the lows. The high probability level for us is the low 500's into the 471 reversal zone boundary. Remember, we do not know if price will retest this area, but we are prepared if the opportunity materializes. We don't predict, we play probabilities. In summary, quiet times in the market are great times to prepare. Research other coins, check out our portfolios at S.C. and see how we are building inventory. When the market offers more attractive prices, we are prepared with a plan. What is your plan?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: Bearish Trend Line Encourages Test Of Low 7Ks.BTCUSD update: Price action is some what quiet near the most recent peak. There is an inside bar now present on this time frame which can turn into a sell signal quickly. As I wrote in my report on S.C. earlier today, the bearish trend line is still in effect. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. This market is in a tricky area. If buyers hold up, price can produce a shallow higher low and squeeze higher and break the bearish trend line. If price takes out the 7413 inside bar low, that can invite further bearish momentum which can take price back to the low 7Ks. Based on the technical structures in place, it appears price is more likely to lean more toward the bearish side on the short term. I am all for being bullish, but two things need to happen in order to prove this market is in a sustained rally. First, the trend line needs to be cleared. Second, the 8185 resistance level needs to be taken out. This is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Keep in mind price can go as low as 6904 which is the reversal zone boundary and still be in a position to reverse sharply. It is a matter of waiting for the price action to confirm. In my earlier report on S.C., I also compare inventory building with swing trading. If this market pushes the 7K low, there will be an opportunity for both types of strategies. In summary, at this point I am just waiting for the next swing trade while accumulating other coins for long term inventory. S.C. is where I will share the next trade idea for this market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
LTCUSD: New Low Or Double Bottom Formation?LTCUSD update: After a slight retrace today, it appears the coins are poised to retest their recent lows. As I wrote in my earlier ETH report on S.C., there is no reason to be stuck hoping. If a sell signal appears earlier than expected, then it is time to adjust. My recent ETH swing trade long was exited for a smaller profit. I wrote about a bearish trend line that is still in play. Litecoin has the same situation. 124 is the location of the bearish trend line and price has rejected it. Here is one paragraph of my LTC report that I published on S.C. earlier today: "Keep in mind the 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) is what price needs to compromise in order to prove that bullish momentum on the larger magnitude is in effect. Until this occurs, bullish potential is limited and why it is a good idea to be conservative with swing trade profit targets when the next buy signal appears." There is also a bearish reversal zone boundary defined by the 128 level. As long as this lower high formation stays intact, it is reasonable to expect a retest of the low 100s. In summary, as price attempts to revisit the recent low, we will be watching for reversals. Particularly in the 105 to 100 support area. This is where the highest probability exists for a bullish pattern. The idea is to capture a piece of the next retrace higher, and possibly hold if it evolves into a larger time frame trade.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
AUDUSD: Bears Can Take This Market To .7400 Or Lower.AUDUSD update: Although this pair has demonstrated some recent strength, it is still being dominated by bearish momentum. Along with the other U.S. Dollar crosses, this market is likely to push the .7400 area low. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. The high at .7605 is the most recent peak which is relatively lower than the previous high around .7813. A short term retrace such as the one off the .7400 area low can be confusing or even tempting to buy. Keep in mind, timing minor higher lows is a feasible strategy but only for day trading in my opinion. Since the bigger picture momentum is bearish, it is possible to capture maybe 30 pips on an intraday retrace, but you must be on top of it since potential is more on the bear side. Often, the higher probability strategy is to either wait for price to retest a resistance again which is around the .7563 area (.382 of recent bearish structure). Or wait for a continuation pattern such as an inside bar for an entry on the side of the momentum. The first potential target for a short is in the .7450 area. The second is the .7374 reversal zone boundary. These levels offer an idea of how low this market can go if a short signal appears. In summary, knowing the reward/risk potential of your time frame is key to choosing a trade. When counter trend setups appear, they carry much greater risk since so much is working against you. If you take the higher risk trade, you must compensate with more conservative targets and smaller time frames in order to increase your chances of coming out with a profitable trade. This is the realm of the day trader and is not a good idea for the less experienced trader, especially in the forex markets. I am watching this pair for a swing trade setup on the short side, but there is nothing to report yet. I will issue the signal on S.C. if anything worthwhile appears.
by MarcPMarkets
3
BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Bears In Control. Watching 544 Area For Next Support.ETHUSD update: Price has taken out the reversal zone boundary at 614 and has gone as low as the 544 support zone. At this time, there is no swing trade setup present which makes short term decision making simple. As mentioned in other recent articles, environments like this call for the position trade mentality. A setup is a formation, and a pin bar is what provides the confirmation and trigger for entry. A pin bar alone is not a setup, even if it occurs at an attractive level. Candlestick patterns appear randomly throughout a chart. What gives a candlestick any value is the location of where it is appearing and that is where predetermined levels come in. Reversal zone boundaries are levels that define an area where the probability of reversal is greatest. If price goes above or below these zones, and never reversed, it means stand aside and let the momentum play out until price finds the next level. This is what happened at the 614 level. Price did not even hesitate until it found buyers at the 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). The pin bar tells us that buyers are interested here but there is no formation which means the criteria for a long is not present. Especially now that the pin bar has been established and price gave it back relatively quickly is a sign that bearish momentum is likely to continue which means avoid any swing trade longs until stability proves itself. Environments like this are not completely void of opportunity though. In my Ethereium article on S.C. earlier today, I go on to explain more about the concept of inventory building and fishing for fear with limit orders under the market. Cost averaging in these markets is similar to stacking gold and silver coins. In summary, unless the current candle closes strong (unlikely), it is within reason to expect price to retest the 530s or possibly lower. The 544 to 464 support zone is wide and it may take some time (week or two) before this market can stabilize. This will obviously require the entire coin market to find buyers since they all pretty much move together. Do not get sucked into the pessimism which this community is up to its ears in. If you are a long term believer, then fearful markets offer wholesale price opportunities to build an inventory. Embrace the risk and think independently and do not use margin. Ask yourself this: if you bought a gold bar for $1300 and the price goes to 1K, are you going to dump it? If yes, I know someone who will buy it from you.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20