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BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Bears In Control. Watching 544 Area For Next Support.ETHUSD update: Price has taken out the reversal zone boundary at 614 and has gone as low as the 544 support zone. At this time, there is no swing trade setup present which makes short term decision making simple. As mentioned in other recent articles, environments like this call for the position trade mentality. A setup is a formation, and a pin bar is what provides the confirmation and trigger for entry. A pin bar alone is not a setup, even if it occurs at an attractive level. Candlestick patterns appear randomly throughout a chart. What gives a candlestick any value is the location of where it is appearing and that is where predetermined levels come in. Reversal zone boundaries are levels that define an area where the probability of reversal is greatest. If price goes above or below these zones, and never reversed, it means stand aside and let the momentum play out until price finds the next level. This is what happened at the 614 level. Price did not even hesitate until it found buyers at the 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). The pin bar tells us that buyers are interested here but there is no formation which means the criteria for a long is not present. Especially now that the pin bar has been established and price gave it back relatively quickly is a sign that bearish momentum is likely to continue which means avoid any swing trade longs until stability proves itself. Environments like this are not completely void of opportunity though. In my Ethereium article on S.C. earlier today, I go on to explain more about the concept of inventory building and fishing for fear with limit orders under the market. Cost averaging in these markets is similar to stacking gold and silver coins. In summary, unless the current candle closes strong (unlikely), it is within reason to expect price to retest the 530s or possibly lower. The 544 to 464 support zone is wide and it may take some time (week or two) before this market can stabilize. This will obviously require the entire coin market to find buyers since they all pretty much move together. Do not get sucked into the pessimism which this community is up to its ears in. If you are a long term believer, then fearful markets offer wholesale price opportunities to build an inventory. Embrace the risk and think independently and do not use margin. Ask yourself this: if you bought a gold bar for $1300 and the price goes to 1K, are you going to dump it? If yes, I know someone who will buy it from you.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
EURUSD: Reversal Signs On Major Support. 1.1800's Within Reason.EURUSD update: The swing trade long from 1.1745 is now in play. In this report I am going to explain the reasoning behind this long, and what adjustments to consider in the face of conflicting price action if it nears the bearish trend line. This trade was called on S.C. around 10:30 AM EST today. The price action over recent weeks has been clearly bearish. For whatever fundamental reason that you want to point to, the US dollar has been surging. Often during times of prolonged momentum, it is very easy to lose sight of broader structure. When you zoom out and look at the overall structure of this pair, you will notice that the 1.1708 area is the .382 of the entire bullish move since the December 2016 lows. This is important information because it means this level is a major support. One that offers a greater probability that price retraces higher, at least temporarily. On this time frame, temporarily means a retest of the bearish trend line near the high 1.1700s or even a push toward the 1.2011 resistance which is the .382 level relative to the recent bearish structure. Since momentum is still generally bearish, it makes more sense to place a target at a much more conservative level and that is why I chose 1.1823 instead of the high 1.1800s or even higher. Keep in mind what makes this trade worth the risk is the potential. 1.2011 is around 300 pips from current prices. Capturing just 25% of that is very reasonable. There are other factors that are in play that justified this trade signal. There is a minor failed low formation defined by 1.1690 and an inside bar on the 12 hour chart. The trigger was when the 12 hour high was taken out. There is also an inside bar on this time frame as well which will trigger at 1.1751 for those still interested. Since momentum still favors the bearish side, price conflict may appear earlier than the target. The area to consider: the 1.1790s. If a bearish pin bar appears off of the 1.1790s, that would be a good time to exit for an earlier profit. The 1.1683 stop is based on the 1.1690 low with a little extra room to help reduce the possibility of a fake out. At the moment, price is hesitating just above the 1.1700 area which is not the best sign. Keep in mind, if this market cannot get it together and mount a retrace over the next 12 to 15 hours, I will more than likely exit the position, even for a smaller loss. I do not want to be long for the upcoming holiday and these type of reversals should move favorably quickly, if it does not, it is a red flag. Taking trades with higher probability and potential are one thing, but the key to remember is winners must be larger than losers. There are times when adjustments may call for taking less profit than the amount risked, and that is fine. We can't control profits, but we can control risk. If you keep risk relatively small, and mitigate further when the market offers the chance by adjusting to new information and signals, that is how to average 2:1 or better reward/risk over time. It is possible to have a string of losses, but if you are following these best practices, your winners should be making up for them and then some. Questions and comments welcome.
Long
by MarcPMarkets
8
Are You Sure ? -Everybody is going to 9k ! - I said: Bull Trap !Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. While 99% of Trading View authors go with the Wind, changing their idea everyday, Moving Water stays on track, and now, Big Fall, first predicted on April 21, is ongoing. Spotted another bull trap, on May 18, to around $ 8400, and did go a little higher, to $ 8600, (my bad), but now price is about to break down the $ 7800 support. Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _________________________________________ ADVICE: -------- MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be a long flow if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to do your own research when placing your orders and stop loss. What I am posting here is just the tendency of the market, from what I see, but I am just trying to understand the market, not giving any service or advice to trade. STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. _________________________________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is Helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- M.W. - Moving Water
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
159
GBPUSD: Bullish At 1.3329 If Price Can Do This One Thing.GBPUSD update: Bearish momentum has been reluctant but this pair has persisted lower. Price is now nearing a very significant support level of 1.3329. Being over a hundred pips away means there is a lot of room for messy price action, but we are still looking for a swing trade long setup. 1.3329 is the .382 of the bullish structure that is relative to the low made in December of 2016. This means this level carries a lot of weight, but also means the margin of error around the level is very wide. Price can break below by 50 pips or more and then find buyers, so expecting precision in this area is not the best idea. Also keep in mind, if this bearish momentum persists, it is within reason for price to retest the 1.3051 reversal zone boundary. The point being there is a lot of room for this market to breath if it is going to find a short term bottom. This bigger picture view helps to highlight the potential for day trade shorts since that is what momentum favors. In terms of swing trades though, risk of reversal starts to increase dramatically especially below 1.3329. This means do not short and hold. At S.C., we are evaluating this situation for bullish reversal patterns which are nonexistent at the moment. The reason is if price action can construct a reversal formation, the potential is high since the first target is at the 1.3770 area which is the .382 of the current bearish structure. We are not looking to capture 400 pips, but a quarter of that is within reason, and worth it if we can keep the risk at 50 pips or less. The EURUSD is also in a similar situation, and we are evaluating opportunities in the Gold market as well (obviously a play on the Dollar). Check S.C. for recent articles on how we are navigating these markets.
by MarcPMarkets
7
LTCUSD: Wholesale Prices In Play But Only For Contrarians.LTCUSD update: This swing trade has been stopped out at 123.50. This broad market weakness is what scares weak hands out of their positions, and now that this position is stopped out, we will be looking for the next opportunity to buy back in once stability returns. A few days ago I wrote an article about Litecoin and issued a trade call on S.C. The entry was a limit order at 133.50 and the stop 123.50. I issued this call while it was trading near 140. The scenario that this market is presenting at the moment is the reason why I placed a limit order under the market. I did not know if this retest of the low was going to happen, I just wanted to better positioned in case it did. This stop out is just a cost of doing business, and it eliminates exposure to a broad sell off (price went as low as 116). Keep in mind, the stop order is specifically for the risk presented by this particular swing trade and has no bearing on any long term positions that I have for this market. The 132.72 and 125.68 levels are reversal zone boundaries. They present a high probability area where price is more likely to reverse, but there is no guarantee it will. This outcome is part of the risk that is taken when placing a limit order under the market and not waiting for particular confirmation. Keep in mind the sub 125 levels are what I like to call wholesale prices. It is like when your favorite store puts inventory up for sale because they need to get rid of it. These lows are attractive prices, but in order to get back in for another swing trade long, a reversal pattern will need to appear. There is no reason to panic or be stressed out by this price action. Remember when a market looks its worst, that is often the best time to buy. Think like a contrarian, not like the crowd. I wrote in an earlier analysis about this market that the 105 to 100 level is really where cause for concern is relevant. The 100 level is not only a psychological support, but a break below would negate the bullish Elliott Wave count on the broader time frame. Even in a scenario where price goes below 100, the only thing it would mean for me is not to buy more. Since I do not use margin in these markets, I look at them more like stacking physical gold or silver, which means you do not let go of inventory at lows. Let the weak hands blow out their positions and react for whatever reason. BTC went to 6K a few months back, only to climb back to 9K. As long as these markets are not pushing any major lows, it is just a matter of time before they find stability. One important point that Andrew pointed out in one of his recent BTC articles was that in order to benefit from sell offs like this, you must believe in the future of these coins in order to add to your inventory with confidence. If you are in this for a quick profit, then you are better off waiting for a swing trade which has precisely defined risk and not cost averaging. We are going to be watching carefully for opportunities to add to portfolio positions as well as for new swing trades once stability reestablishes itself across these markets.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
LTCUSD: Nearing Buy Trigger. Why The Limit Order?LTCUSD update: Price retreating from the 140 level as the noise in the coins continues. Now that a second lower high has been established, converging trend lines can be drawn to indicate a descending wedge. Formations like these around significant support zones are places to look for strength. If you read my recent LTC article on S.C., I issued a specific trade call using a limit order under the market. I made this call while price was trading above 137.84. My limit order (see S.C.) still stands. How did I know the market would pull back? I didn't. I am looking to capitalize on a very specific condition that either the market will express, or not. Since BTC has been very noisy recently, I figured let's see if the noise persists. I do know that 132.72 and 125.68 are reversal zone boundaries. These are high probability support areas that price is more likely to find support and retrace from. If I am going to buy with a blind limit order, I would rather do it closer to these levels. The other factor that helps me place an order like this is something called patience. I do not care about missing moves, because I know that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. If the market blew through 140 and never looked back, then I miss the move. Am I losing anything? If you said yes, then you still have much to learn. At this point, the order has never gotten filled. Missing the move is still a possibility, but as you can see, there is a better chance it gets filled soon. Like I wrote on S.C., focus on probability, not profitability and you will find yourself in better trades. If I get filled, I know there is a higher probability that price will find support nearby and retrace toward the 150 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). I would rather take the risk in the low 130s than at 140. Jumping into a market for the fear of missing a move is a reactive decision. These impulsive decisions are at the core of the herd mentality. Greed and fear are what drive order flow and in order to capitalize on this nature, you must not think in the same terms. By placing an order under the market, I am positioning to benefit from this irrationality. Keep in mind, I can still be wrong and the market can continue much lower, but that is why I have a stop in place. Check S.C. for updates this market.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
EURUSD: Key Level For Potential Reversal Back Toward 1.2000.EURUSD update: This pair is poised to go lower based upon the bearish momentum in play on this time frame. The 1.1764 level is still in play and we are watching price action around this area carefully for a bullish reversal. On S.C., we evaluated this market on Friday and described details of a potential swing trade long. That trade idea is still plausible, but can be negated if price pushes dramatically lower. Keep in mind, current price action has been fluctuating within the 1.1937 to 1.1772 support zone which is the .618 area of the bullish structure that peaked in January. The fact that price has penetrated this wide zone is certainly a bearish sign, but if 1.1764 holds, and the bearish trend line breaks, a retrace back toward the 1.1930 area is within reason. If bearish momentum continues without any interruption, then this pair can retest the 1.1630s before any supportive price action would be worth evaluating. Remember, we are not making predictions, we are simply evaluating probabilities. And a trade signal off of this reversal zone is contingent on a reversal formation. No formation, no trade. The market decides, all we do is measure, recognize and adjust. Keep an eye on S.C. to see if a signal goes off in this market.
by MarcPMarkets
3
ETHUSD: Navigating The Noise Around A Double Bottom.ETHUSD update: Tricky price action off of the 656 support may leave you confused. Is this a double bottom formation off of a predetermined support? In this brief report I will share an idea to consider when it comes to evaluating a position. The 714 level happens to be the .382 resistance of the previous bearish structure. This level is clearly in play in terms of keeping price from advancing any further. Also this price action is a function of BTC not being able to sustain consistent bullish momentum either. Even though this lack of follow through may be confusing, the 656 level (.382 of recent bullish swing from 358 low) is still exhibiting a double bottom formation. Along with that, the formation is a higher low relative to the 358 low. This implies an overall context of strength. At S.C., we haven't issued any trade signals because price action has not met the conservative criteria that we are waiting for. For the more aggressive, here is one idea to consider in a situation like this: place a limit order way below the market. Put it somewhere between 645 and 620. If this market experiences a panic spike, you get some at a great price. The premise here is you are capitalizing on the randomness while betting that the overall structure stays intact. Since price can easily fall through this area, placing a limit order like this carries a lot more risk. So to compensate, take a fraction of your normal swing or position trade size. Like 1/3 or 1/2. Andrew explained this idea nicely in his recent BTC article on S.C. Check it out for a similar idea in that market. In summary, price action is noisy at the moment, but a bullish bias still exists. Placing limit orders under a market like this can get you a good price IF the structure holds. If it does not, you must either blow it out for a loss, or since it is a smaller position to begin with, just hold on and plan to add when stability does materialize eventually. This inventory management method works best when NOT using margin. If you don't understand the effects of margin, avoid this method because it can lead to account wipe out. Whether price gives you an entry on a panic spike, or you have to hold through a deeper correction, it is the smaller size that keeps your risk in check. As market conditions improve, you will have opportunities to add to it. We use this method often at S.C. for these markets, metals and even stocks.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
AUDUSD: Avoid Noise And Let Market Find More Attraxtive Level.AUDUSD update: Consolidating price action after the recent leg of bearish momentum found buyers at the .7400 area. This is probably the most random type of price behavior a market can exhibit which means one thing for us: avoid. Momentum is still bearish even though recent price structure offers the appearance of some minor stability. Often these type of formations within this context serve as continuation patterns. My recent report in the GBP highlighted a similar condition which has been proven correct so far as price has explored lower levels. For the purpose of issuing a signal to our followers on S.C., the .7374 and .7351 reversal zone boundaries serve as the general area to evaluate potential reversal patterns. This means on a day trading basis, there is plenty of potential short opportunity, but you really must be nimble to avoid getting caught in any noise that is occurring on this time frame. The .7564 (.382 of recent bearish structure) and areas above offer much more attractive reward/risk for any potential swing trades on the short side. In summary, range bound markets may be tempting at times, and may even offer opportunities on smaller time frames. From a swing trading standpoint, randomness is high which means our criteria for a long or short is far from being met. Let the market decide where it wants to go and until it offers a more attractive scenario, there is no reason to take any action. Check out S.C. for a recent update on EUR/USD and Gold markets as well. Questions and comments welcome.
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTCUSD: In Key Support Area. Can The Next Candle Reverse?BTCUSD: Price is now retesting the 8044 reversal zone boundary. This is an attractive area for longs but there is no signal in place. How the next candle closes will provide important clues as to whether there is a signal worth taking. Drama, it's everywhere. As soon as price moves more than people were expecting, the first thing they seek is "Why?". A story of any kind to fill in the painful void of uncertainty. And you will find plenty of drama, because it generates ad revenue. When I see a market move of this nature, the first thing I check is the level, and the next thing is the formation. I could care less why. Eventually, someone will tell me and I didn't have to waste any time searching for news. By the time I find out "why", my trading plan has been made, and action or non action has been taken. I mention this because this market is presenting a great example. Bearish momentum is pushing price into a very attractive support area. 8044 is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 8204 low. This is an area that offers a high probability trade IF a setup can materialize. If it cannot, and price instead falls through, then there is simply no trade to take. Stay flat and wait. Keep in mind price is now below the 8171 support which is the .618 of the entire bullish structure all the way back to the 150 lows. This support zone reaches all the way to 4559. Can price get there? No one can predict that. We can say that within this broad zone there is a much higher probability that price finds support and mounts a broader reversal. In summary, the level is the first variable we consider when it comes to isolating a swing trade long opportunity. Momentum is bearish so price can keep going, but what if it doesn't? What if instead, the next candle forms an inside bar? Or a bullish pin bar? What do you think that means? It means a short squeeze is likely and an opportunity for a swing trade long will be present. On S.C. we use these factors along with other criteria to isolate high probability setups and then broadcast the signal to our followers. We will be watching the current level closely. Check out S.C. for updates. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
Many Bulls Are About to Get Killed !! Big Fall Coming !Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. So, is BTCUSD really going down? Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit, as posted on related chart below. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _______________________________________________________________________________________ STOP LOSS: is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ____________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE --
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
85
Why 90% of BTC Charts are now Bearish ? Is it real ?Welcome, Followers and Visitors, It is good to highlight: Why 90 % of Trading View are now posting Bearish Charts on BTCUSD ? www.tradingview.com On Feb 3rd, April 21,27, 28, and May 3rd, when the Moving Water spotted a BIG FALL, and a BULL TRAP, before that, while 99% of Trading View's Charts for BTCUSD were Bullish. Well, it is not easy to put your face to get hit, by all those people and tell everybody that BTC will fall hard, when 99% of people think you are wrong and are betting money it will go up; imagine if you get it wrong. Some get mad, some call you retarded, wrong, spammer, and many top authors tell you that it is possible, because all indicators were already stressed out, concluding that price of BTCUSDT could only go up. If it goes down, it is not my fault. Believe me, I am not that powerful. I just can see it. Well, many things changed, and most all of those authors already posted Bearish charts on BTCUSD , including 90% of the authors, as you can see on ticker for BTCUSD, link below: www.tradingview.com So, is BTC really going down? Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit, as posted on related chart below. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _______________________________________________________________________________________ STOP LOSS: is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ____________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE --
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
43
Good News ! Why Mistake ? Consensus Conference - 2018Hi, Trading View - Welcome Followers and Visitors, How nice is to be aware of a good news, before everybody else, and invest in it before goes moon with 100% accuracy? So, Good News ? How could it Go Wrong ? Well, that is not so easy as it seems. Example of Good News: The Initial public offering of Facebook, on May 18, opened on $38 and on August 20, it dropped to $20, even though banks and investment advisors told all around the opposite. www.washingtonpost.com en.wikipedia.org Market is never so easy, but always creative constantly coming up with new moves, and surprises for those who think it is easy. Don't Trust Good News or Bad News to trade, but the Market Flow. The Consensus Conference - 2018 is ongoing - What Now for BTCUSD / BTCUSDT / BTC ? www.forbes.com Good News or Bad News? Bitcoin is it still going Moon? What do you think? For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ADVICE: _______ STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering what you can afford. __________________________________________ GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. Please Press -- LIKE -- , If so, Thank You. Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
S&P 500: This Retrace Can Lead To 2680a Before Reversal.S&P 500 update: After the bearish pin bar appeared and triggered within the predetermined resistance zone, price behaved as anticipated. Selling momentum asserted itself and this market is now in retrace mode. To avoid premature entries in a situation like this, it is important to evaluate potential support in light of the overall technical context. In my recent S&P report, I wrote that price was vulnerable within the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). The selling did not kick in right away, it took a couple of days, but the point was the risk of retrace was high. There was also a nice report written on S.C. yesterday about how to maneuver in a situation like this using options. Now that bearish momentum is in effect, the question is: how low can it reasonably go and still maintain it's broader bullish bias? 2683 is the next support level (.382 of recent bullish swing) to watch for as far as a bullish reversal. Remember, the bigger picture is bullish. Elliott Wave counts have pointed to the 3K area as a potential long term target (posted on S.C.). Considering this context, IF price is going to adhere to this path, then the 2680s are a convenient location for buying to resume. The price patterns that appear there will either confirm or reject this idea. If price breaks below 2683, then it is obviously in for a deeper retrace, but it will still not change the bigger picture outlook by much. It will signal more of a range bound market on the short term. In summary, when using the S&P as a gauge for portfolio management, or as an outright trading instrument, the technical picture can provide clarity where fundamentals will not. I wrote about the price vulnerability days before the bearish pin bar and short trigger. I cannot predict the news and catalysts that actually cause the reaction, all I know is that the probability of selling is high. This market is very reactive to many factors such as earnings, political events, economic reports, etc. It is tough to do for most people, but tuning all this out and looking at the market purely from a technical standpoint will provide extra insight that the herd often misses because of these distractions. Short term price action favors selling, so be prepared for the 2683 level whether you are day trading or managing a stock portfolio. You can also follow along on S.C. and see how we utilize this information.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
1
LTCUSD: Lower High Points To Attractive Support Area.LTCUSD update: Lower high formations across the board imply further weakness in these markets. As bearish as this price action may appear, it is a welcome sign for the next swing trade long. The lower high established at 153 is concerning if you are long, but if you saw my recent long term Elliott Wave count that I published on S.C., you will see that the level to really be concerned about is 105. The current bearish retrace is still within a price area that is attractive for broader time horizon longs. The current price has two important levels in play. The 132 and 125 reversal zone boundaries which act as supports. IF price attempts to push lower and fails, that sets up the scenario for a short squeeze. Often these fake outs shake out the weak hands and offer an opportunity to buy from these reactive traders. Keep in mind, IF price does in fact fall through, then these markets are more likely to retest major lows like 105 in this case. In summary, the best thing to do in situations like this is to think like a contrarian and let the market prove itself. If it does prove strength, you should have a plan of action prepared. If it pushes below 125 decisively, then stand aside. If you are managing inventory, there is not much you can do except lighten your position if it is causing you stress. You can always get back in when the market stabilizes. Being mindful of the amount of risk you are exposed to should be your top priority.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Can Lead To Test Of 1.3300 Area?GBPUSD update: After a significant decline, price has settled around the 1.3551 level which is a reversal zone boundary. The type of price formation that is present would usually call for a long, BUT usually this is followed by a short squeeze which is not happening here. And for this reason, I am anticipating a bearish continuation pattern. The EUR and AUD had decent bullish retraces that may lead to a quality signal, but not this pair. When price reaches a reversal zone boundary, and produces a double bottom type formation, typically the next move is a squeeze. So when the market does not squeeze, that is telling us something. It is telling us that the bearish momentum is still firmly in control. There is an inside bar/bearish pin bar with a low of 1.3502. This can act as an aggressive short trigger for those who are monitoring shorter time frames. It is aggressive because the trigger is occurring at a low, rather than a lower high. This is the nature of trend continuation patterns and this one can lead price into the next support near the 1.3300 area. If this market can gather the strength for a bullish retrace, the resistance level to watch for is the 1.3821 area (.382 of recent bearish swing). This would serve as the more conservative area to look for a swing trade short as well. Keep in mind, the long term wave count for this market is bearish which lends more potential to the short side. Aggressive break out trades such as the break of the 1.3502 low are within reason in such a context. Just make sure your plan is very well defined. This means you should know before you enter what type of trade it is: day trade? swing trade? And you should know your stop and your targets as well. I will be covering the broader time horizons on S.C. so make sure to keep an eye out.
by MarcPMarkets
ETHUSD: Relevant Support But Still Lacking For New Long.ETHUSD update: Price has retraced back to the 656 support which is a predetermined level. There is even a bullish pin bar present which can be tempting to enter a long, but just like BTC, this market is also lacking price structure. The 656 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is an attractive level to look for long setups. The question is, what does a long setup look like? Pin bars and other candle stick reversal patterns can serve as validation points, but what is missing here is a broader structure like a double bottom formation. Just like the aggressive trade signal that we recently called in BTC (on S.C.), this market is showing a similar situation. Trend line support, a predetermined level (which BTC did not have at the time of the signal) and a bullish pin bar. This is the recipe for a long, but the problem is the probability, especially in light of a BTC market that has not proven any technical stability yet. Keep in mind, price can fluctuate up to the 714 level (.382 resistance of current bearish swing), or even the 741 area (.618 of recent bearish structure) only to establish a lower high. Day trading up to these levels is one thing, but swing trading carries too much risk. In summary, at S.C., we are now waiting for the more conservative criteria to appear before entering into the next swing trade long. Stability can be expressed in the form of chart patterns and until one of our setups appear, we will not issue any new signals. As long as momentum stays bearish, it is still within reason to expect price to push lower. How much lower? There is no way to determine that, especially with no particular structures in place. Patience is key. These markets will find stability, it is a matter of time. Instead of deciding for the market, at S.C., we will simply wait for it to provide clarity and then determine if there is an opportunity worth entering. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected. The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1. On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s. Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway. As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now. In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.
by MarcPMarkets
1
Spotted:Big Fall & Bull Trap -6 days Before Bad News. Possible ?Hi, Followers and Visitors, Welcome. First of all, thank you for trusting: 3rd TARGET HIT ! Is it possible to spot a Bull Trap, then a Big Fall on BTCUSD , 6 days before Bad News comes and becomes Viral ? The Moving Water - A New Trading Perspective, actually, did spot it, because it does not wait for bad news to spot a fall. Doesn't trust on bad news or good news. Doesn't wait on them. Considers the chart, and all the informations that the market gives. As you can see, after bad news was viral, panic came up, and it was too late to get money, or not lose it. Also, before that, still there was a FOMO. ( Fear of Missing Out). Even though news was already out online, many people believed it was time to buy BTC, because it was time to go UP hard, so don't trade FOMOS. Again, I am sorry for those who are long and bought it at 19k, but when market says it is going down, or going up, no one holds it. So, it is not my fault if it is going down. I just can see it. Don't believe that my small analysis could influence the market. Not even whole Trading View are able to influence and stop a big wave. Posted the bull trap chart on May 3rd, for BTCUSDT , saying it would go to 10k, but just after that, it had an update saying: 10 k is out, because, The Moving Water could spot that BTC was not gonna hit 10k on top of the Bull Trap, and it did not get there but very close, as you can see on the chart. So far so good. 2 targets to go. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. PLEASE: Press LIKE Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
31
BTCUSD: Stability Required Before Next Long, Watch And Wait.BTCUSD update: Price pushes through the 8626 support level to find some hesitation at the 8350 reversal zone boundary. This area is a much more attractive place to look for longs, but taking a swing trade is contingent on what type of reversal formation appears. Momentum is now bearish and even though price is in the vicinity of support levels, it is reasonable to expect this sell off to continue until it proves otherwise. In order to do that, it needs to form a clear reversal candle such as a pin bar, engulfing, inside bar, etc. And further evaluation such as reward/risk can be figured out at that point, but for now, we are steering clear of any new long swing trades until this market can prove stability. Overall our perspective at S.C. is bullish and the current retrace is normal and healthy. If this short term weakness continues, price can reasonably revisit the 7700's or even lower before showing signs of reversal. This is not a prediction, just a possibility that can materialize if this momentum does not change soon. Information like this is what helps to minimize premature entry while the market continues to sell. Currently, the next minor resistance that can serve as a bullish target once stability returns is the 9359 to 9633 zone (.618 of current bearish swing). This zone will adjust lower if this market continues to push lows. In summary, now that price is interacting with predetermined levels like the 8350 reversal zone boundary (relative to the 8650 low) it is time to pay close attention to the formations that materialize here. And since momentum is clearly bearish, it is a good idea to be more selective as far as what to accept as a reversal worth entering. At the moment, there is nothing to do except watch and wait. If an appropriate setup appears, risk can then be measured and possibly a swing trade triggered. Keep an eye out for updates on S.C. because that is where trade signal details will appear. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29
How People Called Me RETARDED ? JUDGES ?April 13th - A Bearish Channel was spotted, signaling that it was not the best time to Buy, and that BTCUSD would hit a top resistance any time soon. May 3rd - A Bull Trap was spotted in a double top. May 4th - People called me RETARDED. May 11th - Judges ? For more information check the related charts below. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE or FOLLOW. MOVING WATER New Trading Perspective GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
44
LIKE A SNIPER - 2ND TARGET HIT - AGAINST 99% OF TRADING VIEW TALK IS CHEAP. I HAVE BEEN HAMMERED since I started to spot huge short waves when BTC was almost 20K. Well, here we are. THE MOVING WATER just proved that is here to STAY. It keeps going with 98% ACCURACY. There are 3 more targets to go. Let's see if all of them will be reached. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. Thanks for following and trusting. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
39