Get started

Bearishmomentum

Many Bulls Are About to Get Killed !! Big Fall Coming !Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. So, is BTCUSD really going down? Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit, as posted on related chart below. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _______________________________________________________________________________________ STOP LOSS: is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ____________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE --
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
85
Why 90% of BTC Charts are now Bearish ? Is it real ?Welcome, Followers and Visitors, It is good to highlight: Why 90 % of Trading View are now posting Bearish Charts on BTCUSD ? www.tradingview.com On Feb 3rd, April 21,27, 28, and May 3rd, when the Moving Water spotted a BIG FALL, and a BULL TRAP, before that, while 99% of Trading View's Charts for BTCUSD were Bullish. Well, it is not easy to put your face to get hit, by all those people and tell everybody that BTC will fall hard, when 99% of people think you are wrong and are betting money it will go up; imagine if you get it wrong. Some get mad, some call you retarded, wrong, spammer, and many top authors tell you that it is possible, because all indicators were already stressed out, concluding that price of BTCUSDT could only go up. If it goes down, it is not my fault. Believe me, I am not that powerful. I just can see it. Well, many things changed, and most all of those authors already posted Bearish charts on BTCUSD , including 90% of the authors, as you can see on ticker for BTCUSD, link below: www.tradingview.com So, is BTC really going down? Moving Water has 2 targets left to hit, as posted on related chart below. Thanks for Following and Trusting Moving Water If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE -- _______________________________________________________________________________________ STOP LOSS: is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ____________________ Good Luck and Good Profit. If It is helping - Please Press: -- LIKE --
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
43
Good News ! Why Mistake ? Consensus Conference - 2018Hi, Trading View - Welcome Followers and Visitors, How nice is to be aware of a good news, before everybody else, and invest in it before goes moon with 100% accuracy? So, Good News ? How could it Go Wrong ? Well, that is not so easy as it seems. Example of Good News: The Initial public offering of Facebook, on May 18, opened on $38 and on August 20, it dropped to $20, even though banks and investment advisors told all around the opposite. www.washingtonpost.com en.wikipedia.org Market is never so easy, but always creative constantly coming up with new moves, and surprises for those who think it is easy. Don't Trust Good News or Bad News to trade, but the Market Flow. The Consensus Conference - 2018 is ongoing - What Now for BTCUSD / BTCUSDT / BTC ? www.forbes.com Good News or Bad News? Bitcoin is it still going Moon? What do you think? For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ADVICE: _______ STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering what you can afford. __________________________________________ GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. Please Press -- LIKE -- , If so, Thank You. Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
S&P 500: This Retrace Can Lead To 2680a Before Reversal.S&P 500 update: After the bearish pin bar appeared and triggered within the predetermined resistance zone, price behaved as anticipated. Selling momentum asserted itself and this market is now in retrace mode. To avoid premature entries in a situation like this, it is important to evaluate potential support in light of the overall technical context. In my recent S&P report, I wrote that price was vulnerable within the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). The selling did not kick in right away, it took a couple of days, but the point was the risk of retrace was high. There was also a nice report written on S.C. yesterday about how to maneuver in a situation like this using options. Now that bearish momentum is in effect, the question is: how low can it reasonably go and still maintain it's broader bullish bias? 2683 is the next support level (.382 of recent bullish swing) to watch for as far as a bullish reversal. Remember, the bigger picture is bullish. Elliott Wave counts have pointed to the 3K area as a potential long term target (posted on S.C.). Considering this context, IF price is going to adhere to this path, then the 2680s are a convenient location for buying to resume. The price patterns that appear there will either confirm or reject this idea. If price breaks below 2683, then it is obviously in for a deeper retrace, but it will still not change the bigger picture outlook by much. It will signal more of a range bound market on the short term. In summary, when using the S&P as a gauge for portfolio management, or as an outright trading instrument, the technical picture can provide clarity where fundamentals will not. I wrote about the price vulnerability days before the bearish pin bar and short trigger. I cannot predict the news and catalysts that actually cause the reaction, all I know is that the probability of selling is high. This market is very reactive to many factors such as earnings, political events, economic reports, etc. It is tough to do for most people, but tuning all this out and looking at the market purely from a technical standpoint will provide extra insight that the herd often misses because of these distractions. Short term price action favors selling, so be prepared for the 2683 level whether you are day trading or managing a stock portfolio. You can also follow along on S.C. and see how we utilize this information.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
1
LTCUSD: Lower High Points To Attractive Support Area.LTCUSD update: Lower high formations across the board imply further weakness in these markets. As bearish as this price action may appear, it is a welcome sign for the next swing trade long. The lower high established at 153 is concerning if you are long, but if you saw my recent long term Elliott Wave count that I published on S.C., you will see that the level to really be concerned about is 105. The current bearish retrace is still within a price area that is attractive for broader time horizon longs. The current price has two important levels in play. The 132 and 125 reversal zone boundaries which act as supports. IF price attempts to push lower and fails, that sets up the scenario for a short squeeze. Often these fake outs shake out the weak hands and offer an opportunity to buy from these reactive traders. Keep in mind, IF price does in fact fall through, then these markets are more likely to retest major lows like 105 in this case. In summary, the best thing to do in situations like this is to think like a contrarian and let the market prove itself. If it does prove strength, you should have a plan of action prepared. If it pushes below 125 decisively, then stand aside. If you are managing inventory, there is not much you can do except lighten your position if it is causing you stress. You can always get back in when the market stabilizes. Being mindful of the amount of risk you are exposed to should be your top priority.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Can Lead To Test Of 1.3300 Area?GBPUSD update: After a significant decline, price has settled around the 1.3551 level which is a reversal zone boundary. The type of price formation that is present would usually call for a long, BUT usually this is followed by a short squeeze which is not happening here. And for this reason, I am anticipating a bearish continuation pattern. The EUR and AUD had decent bullish retraces that may lead to a quality signal, but not this pair. When price reaches a reversal zone boundary, and produces a double bottom type formation, typically the next move is a squeeze. So when the market does not squeeze, that is telling us something. It is telling us that the bearish momentum is still firmly in control. There is an inside bar/bearish pin bar with a low of 1.3502. This can act as an aggressive short trigger for those who are monitoring shorter time frames. It is aggressive because the trigger is occurring at a low, rather than a lower high. This is the nature of trend continuation patterns and this one can lead price into the next support near the 1.3300 area. If this market can gather the strength for a bullish retrace, the resistance level to watch for is the 1.3821 area (.382 of recent bearish swing). This would serve as the more conservative area to look for a swing trade short as well. Keep in mind, the long term wave count for this market is bearish which lends more potential to the short side. Aggressive break out trades such as the break of the 1.3502 low are within reason in such a context. Just make sure your plan is very well defined. This means you should know before you enter what type of trade it is: day trade? swing trade? And you should know your stop and your targets as well. I will be covering the broader time horizons on S.C. so make sure to keep an eye out.
by MarcPMarkets
ETHUSD: Relevant Support But Still Lacking For New Long.ETHUSD update: Price has retraced back to the 656 support which is a predetermined level. There is even a bullish pin bar present which can be tempting to enter a long, but just like BTC, this market is also lacking price structure. The 656 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is an attractive level to look for long setups. The question is, what does a long setup look like? Pin bars and other candle stick reversal patterns can serve as validation points, but what is missing here is a broader structure like a double bottom formation. Just like the aggressive trade signal that we recently called in BTC (on S.C.), this market is showing a similar situation. Trend line support, a predetermined level (which BTC did not have at the time of the signal) and a bullish pin bar. This is the recipe for a long, but the problem is the probability, especially in light of a BTC market that has not proven any technical stability yet. Keep in mind, price can fluctuate up to the 714 level (.382 resistance of current bearish swing), or even the 741 area (.618 of recent bearish structure) only to establish a lower high. Day trading up to these levels is one thing, but swing trading carries too much risk. In summary, at S.C., we are now waiting for the more conservative criteria to appear before entering into the next swing trade long. Stability can be expressed in the form of chart patterns and until one of our setups appear, we will not issue any new signals. As long as momentum stays bearish, it is still within reason to expect price to push lower. How much lower? There is no way to determine that, especially with no particular structures in place. Patience is key. These markets will find stability, it is a matter of time. Instead of deciding for the market, at S.C., we will simply wait for it to provide clarity and then determine if there is an opportunity worth entering. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected. The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1. On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s. Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway. As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now. In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.
by MarcPMarkets
1
Spotted:Big Fall & Bull Trap -6 days Before Bad News. Possible ?Hi, Followers and Visitors, Welcome. First of all, thank you for trusting: 3rd TARGET HIT ! Is it possible to spot a Bull Trap, then a Big Fall on BTCUSD , 6 days before Bad News comes and becomes Viral ? The Moving Water - A New Trading Perspective, actually, did spot it, because it does not wait for bad news to spot a fall. Doesn't trust on bad news or good news. Doesn't wait on them. Considers the chart, and all the informations that the market gives. As you can see, after bad news was viral, panic came up, and it was too late to get money, or not lose it. Also, before that, still there was a FOMO. ( Fear of Missing Out). Even though news was already out online, many people believed it was time to buy BTC, because it was time to go UP hard, so don't trade FOMOS. Again, I am sorry for those who are long and bought it at 19k, but when market says it is going down, or going up, no one holds it. So, it is not my fault if it is going down. I just can see it. Don't believe that my small analysis could influence the market. Not even whole Trading View are able to influence and stop a big wave. Posted the bull trap chart on May 3rd, for BTCUSDT , saying it would go to 10k, but just after that, it had an update saying: 10 k is out, because, The Moving Water could spot that BTC was not gonna hit 10k on top of the Bull Trap, and it did not get there but very close, as you can see on the chart. So far so good. 2 targets to go. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. PLEASE: Press LIKE Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
31
BTCUSD: Stability Required Before Next Long, Watch And Wait.BTCUSD update: Price pushes through the 8626 support level to find some hesitation at the 8350 reversal zone boundary. This area is a much more attractive place to look for longs, but taking a swing trade is contingent on what type of reversal formation appears. Momentum is now bearish and even though price is in the vicinity of support levels, it is reasonable to expect this sell off to continue until it proves otherwise. In order to do that, it needs to form a clear reversal candle such as a pin bar, engulfing, inside bar, etc. And further evaluation such as reward/risk can be figured out at that point, but for now, we are steering clear of any new long swing trades until this market can prove stability. Overall our perspective at S.C. is bullish and the current retrace is normal and healthy. If this short term weakness continues, price can reasonably revisit the 7700's or even lower before showing signs of reversal. This is not a prediction, just a possibility that can materialize if this momentum does not change soon. Information like this is what helps to minimize premature entry while the market continues to sell. Currently, the next minor resistance that can serve as a bullish target once stability returns is the 9359 to 9633 zone (.618 of current bearish swing). This zone will adjust lower if this market continues to push lows. In summary, now that price is interacting with predetermined levels like the 8350 reversal zone boundary (relative to the 8650 low) it is time to pay close attention to the formations that materialize here. And since momentum is clearly bearish, it is a good idea to be more selective as far as what to accept as a reversal worth entering. At the moment, there is nothing to do except watch and wait. If an appropriate setup appears, risk can then be measured and possibly a swing trade triggered. Keep an eye out for updates on S.C. because that is where trade signal details will appear. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29
How People Called Me RETARDED ? JUDGES ?April 13th - A Bearish Channel was spotted, signaling that it was not the best time to Buy, and that BTCUSD would hit a top resistance any time soon. May 3rd - A Bull Trap was spotted in a double top. May 4th - People called me RETARDED. May 11th - Judges ? For more information check the related charts below. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE or FOLLOW. MOVING WATER New Trading Perspective GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
44
LIKE A SNIPER - 2ND TARGET HIT - AGAINST 99% OF TRADING VIEW TALK IS CHEAP. I HAVE BEEN HAMMERED since I started to spot huge short waves when BTC was almost 20K. Well, here we are. THE MOVING WATER just proved that is here to STAY. It keeps going with 98% ACCURACY. There are 3 more targets to go. Let's see if all of them will be reached. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. Thanks for following and trusting. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
39
AUDUSD: Bearish Momentum Takes Price Into Broad Reversal Zone?AUDUSD update: The Dollar is clearly strong across the board, obviously driven by fundamental forces that are weighing on the dollar pairs where it is the counter currency. When it comes to locating swing trade opportunities, it begins with predetermined levels which is part of the best practices that we follow at S.C. When you have a direction in a market as decisive as this one, it is still important not to react, especially when no setup is present. Situations like this offer the opportunity to plan ahead. Momentum is bearish so it is tempting to just open a short position and hope for the best, but if you consider where price is at the moment, you may think twice when it comes to putting on a swing trade. .7500 is a previous low and important psychological support. .7315 is the reversal zone boundary that is proportionate to the .7500 low. Even though bearish momentum is dominant. price is in a high probability reversal area. Knowing this puts you a step ahead of the reactive herd. There is no reversal in place, yet, but if the structure materializes, this is an attractive area for a long swing trade. IF a failed low formation appears, along with a pin bar or some other trigger, a lower risk long opportunity can present itself, even in the face of bearish fundamentals. The first target to consider is the .7579 level (.382 of current bearish swing). Again, this idea is only relevant if a reversal shows up in the current range that is defined by the .7351 boundary. When there is no setup, there is no trade, no matter how obvious a market looks. Levels and setups are the building blocks of a trading plan and having a method or process to define these structures is key. At S.C. a signal is not issued unless a particular set of criteria is met which means we will let a market go without us if there is no setup. Having a process such as this helps to minimize emotional tendencies and puts you in the position to anticipate rather than react. Follow along at S.C. and see how we apply this simple philosophy across many markets.
by MarcPMarkets
1
LTCUSD: Mid 150's More Attractive For Buying Opportunities.LTCUSD update: The fact that the 164 resistance was taken out is a very bullish sign for this market over the longer term. This old resistance is likely to become a new support, but the mid 150s offer a more proportionate level for a buying opportunity. With the bullish trend line clearly intact, this market intends to go higher, but buying too early can bring more pain than expected. The 156 support is the .382 area of the recent bullish swing and offers a predetermined level to watch for swing trade long opportunities. The previous candle low came as close as 157 which provides evidence that this level is attracting significant buying activity. It is a matter of waiting for the price action to fit the criteria of one of our buy signals at S.C. And if the market goes higher without such a signal, then we are perfectly fine with missing a move. Optimal reward/risk is a much higher priority when it comes to evaluating an opportunity. In summary, this market is poised to go higher in the long run, but in order to participate, it needs to provide a price structure and setup that fits sound risk/reward criteria. Keep in mind, 190 is the next reversal zone boundary which means not only is that a potential exit, but it is also an area to avoid initiating any new longs. Using predetermined levels to anticipate a particular market action is part of the best practices that we adhere to when generating signals at S.C. Speculating in any financial market is more than just making decisions based on information evaluated on a chart. Self awareness and emotional intelligence are also part of the speculative process whether you are managing a portfolio or individual trades. It is this type of insight that you will find on S.C. only. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
EURUSD: Bearish Momentum Can Lead Price Back To 1.1760s Area.EURUSD update: Price is attempting to stabilize at the 1.1933 level which is an old resistance / new support level while showing a bullish pin bar in the process. With momentum being decisively bearish, there is not enough structure at this level to justify any long swing trades. When momentum is decisive in one direction, usually any attempt to stabilize turns out to be a trend continuation pattern. The narrow range that price is trying to carve out at the moment appears to be just that, the beginnings of a trend continuation formation. This is especially important to observe since the next significant support level is the 1.1764 reversal zone boundary which is 200 pips lower. I would not look for longs here until price is much deeper into the reversal zone and is presenting a clear reversal structure which is it not doing at the moment. A pin bar is not a structure, it is just a single bar and not enough to justify taking any risk on the long side. If price does happen to bounce, the 1.2100 level (.382 of current bearish swing) is where we would anticipate the next actionable resistance to be. Shorting on a break of the current continuation pattern is a consideration, but would be an aggressive choice since this market is not in any type of resistance zone. As I always remind forex traders, these markets are heavily tied to the fundamental outlook of economic variables like interest rates. Any macro economic variable that has an effect on interest rates will sway the sentiment of major pairs like this one. It doesn't hurt to be aware of fundamental drivers that are putting pressure on a pair like this, but always look for the technical side to line up. If instead, the technical perspective is doing the complete opposite, which is not the case yet, then a fundamental shift may be in process that will show up on the charts before it does any where else. Do not discount the charts, because they often reflect fundamental changes before you hear about them anywhere else.
by MarcPMarkets
1
POSSIBLE DOUBLE TOP SPOTTED. LAST BULL TRAP BEFORE FALLHi, trading View, So far so good, my last chart is smooth as it has already two red candles signaling the volume loss, and where it is heading. But, the Moving Water just spotted a possible double top, before the big fall, and price could go up to 9.750, with this formation. For more information check the related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE or FOLLOW. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
151
GBPUSD: Key Support Zone In Play But No Long Trigger. Yet.GBPUSD update: A strong dollar move pushes this pair into an attractive support level as price attempts to find some stability. If it can trigger a long, it will be very important to be proactive when it comes to position management. The key level here is the 1.3551 which is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 1.3712 range low. This means price is within the reversal zone but has not generated a long signal. Bearish momentum and some fundamental variables weigh against this market, but that does not mean it can't retrace before going lower. The most likely target for a long from an area like this is the 1.3887 level (.382 of current bearish swing). Since so much is working against this market, I would use an even more conservative target if a long is triggered just to increase the chances of a successful exit. Overall this market is testing the low of a broad range. What is important to consider is that the long term Elliott Wave count is bearish which means holding onto longs is not favorable. Taking a trade against the bigger picture does carry more risk, but for swing trading purposes, if the short term probability favors a move that is worth more than 100 pips, I would be willing to take the risk. If a trade is triggered, it will be highlighted on S.C. only. As of right now, we are still neutral on this market.
by MarcPMarkets
1
EURUSD: Bearishness Into Range Low? Waiting For Reversal.EUR/USD update: I am writing about this market in particular because I called a long swing trade yesterday evening that got stopped out. Those of you who are on S.C. most likely saw the signal in your email. Unlike others, we embrace losses and learn from them. In this report I am going to highlight one idea that would have been better for this situation. The trade was: Long 1.2133 Stop 1.2085 Target 1.2190. What was the problem? This trade was taken on a daily pin bar signal. Often these type of signals need breathing room. In other words, price tends to retrace partially or fully after the signal which occurred at the break of the pin bar high (1.2133). The best way to capitalize on this is to split the position in half. Buy half on the break, and place a limit order at some proportional amount lower to take advantage of a situation like the one occurring now. If price never pulls back, you are in the market with a smaller position, but at least you are in. If the market retraces and fills the other half of your order, now you have a lower average price which will allow you to use a wider stop. Either way, this would be better than all in, all out because your risk is basically the same while giving the market more room to breath. If I had placed the stop below the pin bar low, this trade would still be active. If the market reverses back up which has higher probability at these levels, I would still be in. From a technical standpoint, this market is still fluctuating around a very important level. The 1.2080 level is the range reversal zone boundary. If it holds here and mounts a reversal, 1.2195 is the first resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). This is the conservative target since a move off of the range low has the potential to reach the 1.2279 to 1.2383 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing). If another trade signal goes off, I will send out more specific instructions on how to enter the trade based on what I wrote above, but it will only be available on S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
4
GBPUSD: Range Low Offers Potentail Long On Horizon?GBPUSD update: Price has broken below the nearest reversal zone boundary at 1.3988 and closed weak. It has also shifted the bullish trend line which means it is best to avoid this market until it stabilizes in the near term. Trend lines serve as a visual guide for potential reversal levels in the future. When a trend line is broken and needs to be adjusted, it can be confusing. Is it a trend change? In this case, no, it is indicating that the broader bullish momentum is slowing (as slope becomes more horizontal). In order for this trend line to offer any value, price needs to establish a reversal off of it now, and then any retest in the future is what we want to watch closely for a higher probability setup. The key level that is in play now is the 1.3551 reversal zone boundary. This level represents the extreme range low and if a reversal pattern can materialize in this area, that would offer a high probability swing trade long scenario. It all depends on the price action. As you can see, when price reached the 1.3988 area which offered potential, a reversal pattern could not materialize for a swing trade. This is why buying at a predetermined level is not enough to justify taking risk. The predetermined level must be accompanied with evidence that buyers are actively absorbing sell orders. This activity is expressed in particular candle patterns which is what we look for at S.C. in order to issue a signal. Many traders attempt to interpret fundamentals when it comes to the forex market. There is nothing wrong with that if you are into that sort of thing, but through TA I am able to arrive at the same conclusion, often faster, without having to pretend to have a PHD in macro economics. Price discounts all known information in the world at the present time which means the fundamentals are often reflected in the price action and why chart analysis offers substantial value, especially on the short term. As this market attempts to push its range low of 1.3712, we will be watching for reversal patterns that have the potential to offer a trade scenario that can see price retest the 1.4100 area which is the middle of the range. Check for updates and longer time frame Elliott Wave counts on S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Retrace Can Test 575 Or Lower Before Higher High.ETHUSD update: Price is retracing into the first trend line quickly while taking out the 643 previous candle low. The 590 area is the location of the trend line and is one level to consider for a bullish reversal, but 575 is the level that carries higher probability. Trend lines are useful when it comes to evaluating context, even when they break. A break does not signal a trend change, but it does signal a change in momentum. The key to evaluating a trade opportunity at a predetermined level like a trend line is the price action which can be analyzed through candle stick formations. The current candle at the moment implies further weakness so until it proves otherwise, it is reasonable to expect the first trend line to break. The more attractive level is the 575 area which is the .382 of the recent bullish swing. The best formation to see in this area is a failed low where price attempts to bounce, fails and attempts to go lower and then fakes out again with something like a bullish pin bar. Keep in mind price can go as low as 545 in this scenario and generate a bullish reversal for a swing trade long. IF price continues to retrace and compromises these levels, the next area to consider is the 493 to 434 support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). Again, the formations at that time will allow for a trade opportunity or not. When a signal is generated, along with an attractive reward/risk ratio, and reasonable premise based on context, we email, text and also publish the details to our tracking spreadsheet on S.C. In summary, a pull back off of a high is normal and healthy. There is no need to get dramatic or hypersensitive which are characteristics of the herd. This price action is the reason why we always say don't buy the highs (unless there is a very well defined setup like we just had in BTC). This retrace can be the test that these markets need to prove that a bottom is truly established which can lead to a broader move higher in the long run. Know your levels and let the market prove itself at those levels, otherwise there is no reason to justify any new positions. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
EURUSD: Middle Of A Consolidation Is The Best Place To Be Flat.EURUSD update: Price has rejected the 1.2379 to 1.2418 resistance zone and has retraced back to the 1.2268 to 1.2220 support zone while breaking a long term bullish trend line in the process. Is now the time to get short? Never trade the middle. If you examine the price history of this market since January, you will see that it is clearly in a range bound environment. As price gyrates between the two converging trend lines, it may be tempting to take trade signals simply because one appears. That is not a good idea because as I have written before not all signals are created equal. There is a high degree of randomness in any financial market and our job as a price action trader is the minimize randomness in order to improve our chances of a profitable outcome. The middle of any range bound market is the MOST random area for price action. Essentially, price can go either way from this middle and there is no reliable or consistent way to gain an advantage. Price at the moment is gyrating in the middle of this large range. Even if it appears to be going lower, anything can happen at the current level. The 1.2268 to 1.2220 (.618 of recent bullish structure) serves as a reference point to consider longs, but if I am going to take risk, I want the probability to be most in my favor. In this context, the best area for the most potential would be the 1.2181 level. This is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 1.2214 low. This is where the likelihood of a fake out is the greatest. Remember when it comes to trading the forex market, I am very short term. I am only interested in day trades or swing trades. 30 to 50 pip targets are reasonable on this time frame. Taking these profits while they are available is key because there are too many economic variables that affect these markets which can rob you of your profits quickly. There is no sign of a setup at the moment, but if one appears within a predetermined level that makes sense in terms of probability, it will be posted on S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
2
LTCUSD: Waiting For The Next Buying Opportunity?LTCUSD update: Price has rejected the 150 to 161 minor resistance zone that we wrote about on yesterday's update on S.C. This move is the likely beginning of the retrace that we have been waiting for in order to enter our next swing trade long. The 150 to 161 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing measured from the 175 high) is an area to anticipate selling. This was stated clearly in yesterday's analysis. Best practices dictate: you should be thinking "sell" at resistance levels, not initiating new long positions. We avoid buying into resistances, even if the market is strong and goes higher because we are interested in high probability. Since the herd reacts to market moves, instead of anticipating them, it is easy for them to lose sight of the long term probability of a particular outcome. Buying into highs is a low probability behavior and when it produces a profitable trade on occasion, it reinforces this ineffective behavior. When you stop focusing on the money, only then can you better see the significance of best practices and probabilities. So where is the next opportunity? The 136 level is where the immediate bullish trend line is located. This is one place to anticipate bullish reversals. The other area is the 126 to 118 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish swing). If price falls through both of these predetermined areas (ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE) then we will be looking for an extreme price zone reversal which can occur in the low 100s. In summary, the current bearish candle formation implies further weakness which is healthy and required in order to find a new long swing trade setup with attractive reward/risk. In general, these markets appear to have found some stability and may have established a long term double bottom formation which points to greater strength in the near future. The key to capitalizing on this is letting the market prove itself are predetermined levels. That means the next pull back should not push new lows, if it does then you reevaluate and adjust to the new information. You don't fight the market, you just sit back and go with the flow. Questions and comments welcome. (Visit S.C. for more frequent updates across various markets).
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
GBPUSD: Attractive Location For Long, But No Setup. Yet.GBPUSD: Price is forming a pin bar on top of the bullish trend line which also happens to be in a minor support zone. This is an attractive place to look for long swing trade setups or to lock in profit on shorts. The 1.4131 to 1.4065 zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) is a lower risk area to participate in this market which is somewhat bullish on the short term. The big picture is a different story (See Elliott Wave count on S.C.). Also the fact that price has rejected the 1.4325 level so dramatically begins to establish a very broad lower high (below 1.4500 level). This is in line with the general bearish outlook on the weekly time frame. With that being said, taking a swing trade long is still possible, it is just that profit expectations need to be within reason since the long side is limited in terms of potential. At the moment, IF a swing trade setup develops, a target below the .14200 makes more sense compared to expecting a new high over 1.4300. Also keep in mind, even though there is a sign of a bullish reversal on this chart, the market has about 12 hours before the candle closes. This means it can still close weak and the pin bar can disappear. I will be watching the Sunday night candle to determine if a long swing trade setup is present or not. Updates available on S.C. only.
by MarcPMarkets