Get started

Bearish Pennant

Twilight of the Bitcoin Market Cycle?Hello friends, It's been a while since my last post; lack of time and an urge to do more research has mainly driven me to take a break from posting ideas on TradingView. I am still in the process of doing more research and study, but I figure posting once in a while couldn't hurt. Since I have become recently very convinced about this, I am outlining a very possible situation with Bitcoin where the trend line we have been on since early October breaks, reaching around a temporary low of $5000. This is examined on the daily chart, since this is one of the best charts to examine trends of this size. I have to first and foremost say that I am not trying to spread fear, I know many people do not like to hear bearish ideas, but technical analysis is ultimately a rational exercise, and I feel that possibilities with very strong signs should be explored. There are a few things to look at, but I first want to talk about the big picture with, long-term support and resistance lines. I think most people can agree that there was a very significant downtrending resistance line that began from the peak of the ATH in late December, to the low of around $6400 (thick red line). After the break from that line, it seems we moved into a sideways trend, bouncing back and forth between an emerging downtrending resistance line (light red) and a support line that we seem to have been respecting since mid-October (light green); at least this appears to be the case with the lows, where the angle's effectiveness appears very strongly. Finally, based on previous bounces, we can establish a support of around $5000-$5300 (I've thus created a small support zone around that range, in dark green), as well as lower supports around $3200 and $2000 (though I do not believe these will be reached, in dark green). Now, onto the analysis - it's no secret that Bitcoin has been squeezing in, ready for a significant move either upwards or downwards. Initially I considered the upwards move to be more likely due to the significant media attention cryptocurrency has been receiving, but after viewing previous market cycles of Bitcoin (check 2013), it seems clear to me that the bearish scenario of closing in on the market cycle is very likely, and should at the very least be prepared for with proper risk management. According to Dow Theory, which is said to have laid the foundations of modern technical analysis, history repeats itself, and this is a situation where we forced to consider this. Should we break from the line, we will likely fall straight down to the $5000-$5000 area, where we will shoot back up and bounce towards around $6700 or so (maybe a little less). From there one, we will likely enter a sideways trend, which we will continue until we see higher highs and higher lows and parabolic movement returns, which could lead to us challenging the all-time high, and hitting $35k-$50k. NOTE: I seem to have reached the max character limit for this section of the idea, so I will continue my text below.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Luiserebii
4
BITCOIN (#BTC): Bearish Flag - downtrend will continueAs was predicted even couple of days before, BTC is going down. It finished forming of reversal "Head and Shoulders" pattern and the price dropped again below $9000. Now, on 12H TF, you can see the well-known figure named "bearish flag" with the prospect of downtrend will continue. Let's take a look at EMA trend lines - possible "Golden Cross" failed (purple rectangle) and price dropped down. Both EMAs become strong resistances, EMA200 at $9050 and EMA50 at $8800. MACD also indicates downward trend, and for now there is nothing to indicate rebound, at least in the coming days. I hope you enjoy my charts, please writte your comments, hit that like button or follow me. Thank you!
Short
by AsBobbyDigital
XRP/USD (XRP/BTC, XRPM18) - Short Term Bear FlagWhats up Guys, Bitcoin dumped yesterday and like ive mentioned before, the alt coin market went with it. In a much shorter time frame than my previous ripple chart, we're looking at a bear pennant formed (symmetrical triangle). Showing all the signs of a dump, but like we already know, we need confirmations before putting our money where our brains are. Set an alert for a bar close below the lower support line of that bear pennant. This is a scalp move guys, so tight stop losses and TAKE PROFITS need to be in place - figure out your Risk Reward levels and set them accordingly. Ten Likes and I will update the chart Intelligent disagreement welcome Good Luck - See you on the trading floors www.bitmex.com #Crypto #BTC #cryptocurrency Twitter @willn12416 -Nix
Short
by WillNixTrading
7
bearish brkdown of bear pennant; below Head & Shoulders necklinethe bear pennant did what probability expected it to do and finally broke down...as it did it has now dipped below the neckline of the head and shoulders. There is a chance on the new 4 our candle that one of our 4 support lines can break its fall and bounce it back above the neckline of the head and shoulder before this 4 hour candle closes to prevent it from triggering but there's also good odds that we may indeed trigger the head and shoulders. A solid support rebound zone would be the 4hr 50ma...potentially even the 4hr 200ma but more likely the 50ma....I shorted but put fractional buy backs at 7777, and 7641. there's still good odds we could dip further than that...however I see that the ascending trendline is now overlapping the eve pink curved trendline to create a double reinforced support so that could be a good rebound zone as well. I'm hoping we dip to the 50ma and then proceed to be bounced back above it before the 4hr close there by avoiding triggering the head and shoulders...if the head and shoudler is triggered and validated we could potentially dip below the eve trendline on a wick before rebounding but that doesnt necessarily invalidate the trendline instead it may just need to have its angle slightly readjusted since its currently a projection angle...changing the angle slightly of the eve could maintain all the previous candle touches it has while being able to encompass wherever the drop takes us as well..anyways for now we are short at least to the 200ma and probably the 50...and possibly even down to the eve trendline as I predicted a few ideas back that we would find our way back down to it after the bull impulse subsided. Best of luck out there this is only what I'm planning to do and not meant to be taken as financial advice...goodluck and thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
1
BTC potential bullish fakeout before continued down trendBTC Price action on 4hourly has, as in many micro formations, created another bearish pennant. Lower timeframes showing some bullish support and comparing formation with previous bearish pennants of similar size we price could have a bullish fakeout before continued down trend. $5,600k is a price target I have been watching from several angles and given the bullish order block created in the bull run to 19k appears a logical point of support
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Raiju_Zeke
Bulls not ready to let bears call check mate just yet.After three consecutive bearish candles under the bearflag it seemed as if breakout was confirmed and then suddenly a huge bullish slingshot cast the bulls upward again somehow closing back inside the bearflag and keeping it still in play and suddenly the chess match between the bears and bulls goin on inside the bearflag was back on even with the bulls down to nothing but their king left on the board and the bears with most of their pieces in tact. So the ebar flag is still in play but quickly appoaching it's end with either this candle or the very next 4hr candle being the last one in the flag, and the bulls are keeping things alive but currently the white fib line is acting as resistance keeping them in the triangle after a big effort by the bulls to blast up outside of the triangle...which so far has appeared to be an april fools bull trap for now. I still think probability favors a bearish breakdown, and now think that the AApril Fool's joke for today was this giant bull trap. However because now a bullish breakout is still very much possible I have drawn a projection trend line at where a bullish breakout could take us (around 8100-8200) Just in case this does have a bullish breakout. I still think a double bottom is likely and now that the blue 161% fib line has been redrawn I will probably enter back in around 6030 or so. with the intention of laddering in a little more if we reach the new lower fib line and laddering in a little more for any further lines of support we reach under that. If we have a bullish break out I will enter right above the neon green dashed line around $7308. you'll notice on this last bull surge we still didn't have a higher high than the last big green candle so we didn't establish a higher high meaning ebars are still in control and increasing the probability of a bearish breakdown from the flag. Still best to always be prepared for the opposite outcome. I remain short for now however ...if the current candle closes above the red triangle of the bearpennant then it may not need to reach the higher high yet to continue upward or break bullishly out of the bear pennant which would definitely give it a higher high, so very wise to watch closely now the next two 4hour candles because a close above the triangle on this one means that it still needs one more confirmation candle/ or a ton of bull volume on the following candle to confirm the breakout so it could close above the triangle on this one but then drop way under it on the next one as a bull trap....if the current candle closes inside the triangle...we will have one more candle that will be after it which will still of a slightly greater probability of breaking bearishly downward but it is wise to be patient with both outcomes before you decide to change from short to long or long to short. This is just my take and not financial advice...thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Bearpennant breakdown happening like clockwork as I predicted.As you can see the bear pennant I noticed forming 2 days ago while everyone was alreay claiming, "The bottom is already in!" and "We'll never see 7,000 ever again, trust me!" has broken down just like the majority of bear pennants do: Bearishly. Now you can see the price action is dropping at the same angle as the pole of the flag...which I always find rather fascinating when it does that...it will probably diverge from it eventually but for now it's following it to a t. Listed below are 3 potential rebound support zones that I think we could find our rebound on....I'm gonna play it safe and re enter my position just above the blue fibonacci extension 161% support zone at $6021. So I will probably buy back in at $6100. ...I'm still hopiing we trigger a double bottom with the low we had on February 6th which could result in a massive rebound as I have shown the projection target on my chart for something like that. That would keep us from falling to the projected price drop target of the bear flag of $5600...However if we trigger the inverted cup and handle or massive head and shoulder pattern magic poop cannon has been hypothesizing then we could potentially fall as low as sub $3000...however I think if we trigger the double bottom it will skyrocket us back up fast enough that we wont have time to close a confirmation candle in the zone that would trigger the head and shoulder pattern. This is what I'm hoping for. We will see what happens...I think we will tank today and then sometime april 2nd rise like a phoenix, or I guess since it's also Easter.....rise like a Jesus! Happy easter Fool's everyone. Don't let Bitcoin fool you!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Bear Pennant continuing to unfold as I expected; Double bottom?In my last Idea I drew some lines of what I predicted would turn into a rather large bear pennant...and so far it's following the Trendlines I layed out for it precisely. It somewhat amazes me how that can happen...But I have switched the dotted blue lines of the equilateral triangle to solid red and havw added the pole of the bear pennant too that ts now looking exactly like a bear pennant so with that I can give you a downward bullish breakdown price projection target of around $5600. That sounds pretty realistic of an outcome and the probability favors it...however there's a chance that before it has a chance to drop that far, that a potential double bottom could happen when it reached the $5,900-6,000 range which was where we had our low in February. If a double bottom occurs we'd be looking at some huge upward momentum of which I will make a seperateidea following this one focusing more on the double bottom and giving you a more zoomed out perspective on my chart. For now though the bear pennants projected range is $5600 unless its stopped first either by a double bottom around $6,000, or potentially just above that at the blue fibonacci 161% extension line at $6071.90. The body of the candle may close/open at the fib line with a wick dipping down to the double bottom zone and potentially a wick dipping as far down as $5600. Now that there wasn't enough bull volume to sustain the recent climb, The death cross will start to occure on many more exchanges once we close the current 1 day candle in 24 minutes from now. Once that happens, I predict we will be dropping in price most of April Fools day...but I see that death cross carnage as simply cryptos april fool's joke and something like a double bottom happening the very next day to trigger a huge upswing and jumpstart the bull market. I'm still optimistic that Q2 of this year can be a very bullish one that I will be long on, but for now I'm obviously short(temporarily)...you choose to do whatever you see fit though as once again this is in no way financial advice! Thanks for reading and best of luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin is HEADING to ~$6,500? Here's WHY.. You be the judge...Hello traders! Welcome to this new update on Bitcoin. If you look at this day chart, you will see that Bitcoin continues to trend downward. With so many technical analysis charts flying around it is hard to know what is right, and what is wrong. No traders on the planet are the same. We all see the same exact charts, but are we really seeing the same "support" or "resistance" areas? The answer quite simply is NO... Not all of us have the same perspective. This is Bitcoin , anything is possible in this market, and a bullish market is always a possible, but understand that bear markets are also a necessary process within any bull market, and especially after a 20x parabolic rally , i doubt we're going to see a bear market end in just 1.5 Cycles or 90 trading days.. Please do not forget to like and follow . Lets see what happens! Best of lucks to all!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gibmoses
1
Litecoin going upChikou upcrossed the price earlier and is still trending upwards. Room for price to run. This is confirmed by the Kijun sen under the price, and the 50 day EMA also acting as support now. Tenkan Sen indicates market still accumulating with a trend picking up. This is confirmed by the strength of trend we see on the ADX at 25. Senkou Span A&B are both acting as well defined support with relatively low volatility. The overall price is in a bearish pennant and it it doesn't break to the upside of the resistance, price could fall down later to the .236 Fib lines
by SpektreSignal
The Bear View of Bitcoin [BTC]Hello everyone, I hope you are having an amazing day. I'm here again today with another TA on BTCUSD Why are we dropping and what makes me think Bearish? Death Cross at 4H booth MA and EMA At 1D MA's are squeezing up. Always keep an eye on MA's and EMA's they act as support or resistance. Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen. Now with that out of the way let's get started shall we? As you can read on TradingView the Drop and Fear is 'winning' and here's my scenario for this drop, the last drop, the 'best' drop. Why you may ask? Because with a Double bottom on 6k (main target) we'll start fresh, a fresh bull run will be upon us. I said 6k was the main target because there are others on that way, here are all of the targets I've laid for you (an why I did it as well) A Double Top on the Pink Box (11.7k) was made. The run to those tops started at 6k and the target of a Double Top is the point it started so 6k for the Double Top. For this target to be valid price must turn the Double Top Support (9.2k) in to a resistance. (In my opinion it's doing that as you can see last candles at 4H are closing bellow it) We can see this Bear Flag/Pennant forming, the target of the Flag/Pennant is usually the same % as the Pole, since our pole is 28.7% (downwards), 28.7% downwards (if the breakout happens at $8995) will be at $6413, it's all showed on the picture. Ichimoku confirms this Bear Flag/Pennant because our cloud is acting as resistance and the cloud is dropping. (And so is the Tenkan and Kijun) We also have this Head and Shoulders which I don't know if it can bee 100% valid because the Left Shoulder Top and the Head Top are the "same"... The concept it's there, and it helps 'prove' this drop. We have the neckline (which was also a old support, the left white box) at 7.8k we should see some action there, on the right white box. Target is the same as the others around 6k. Last but not least is the WORST case scenario, if we count the All time high as the end of 12345 waves we'll have our ABC... Read the Blue box to understand... I'm leaving Magic's, D4's and Peaceful's TA on the related ideas (an other 2 of my own older ideas) You can read all the updates on those ideas, D4, Magic and Peaceful are all great traders which I follow! This is one of many ideas I've made, you can check my other older Ideas just open my profile and see! DISCLAIMER: This is my own personal opinion! Don't take what I say for granted, this is NOT financial advice. Don't spend what you can't afford to lose, and remember, patience is a key on this Crypto Market! Hold is life! Trade safe and have a nice day!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by angel_lobs
14