The Bear View of Bitcoin [BTC]Hello everyone, I hope you are having an amazing day.
I'm here again today with another TA on BTCUSD
Why are we dropping and what makes me think Bearish?
Death Cross at 4H booth MA and EMA
At 1D MA's are squeezing up.
Always keep an eye on MA's and EMA's they act as support or resistance.
Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen.
Now with that out of the way let's get started shall we? As you can read on TradingView the Drop and Fear is 'winning' and here's my scenario for this drop, the last drop, the 'best' drop. Why you may ask? Because with a Double bottom on 6k (main target) we'll start fresh, a fresh bull run will be upon us.
I said 6k was the main target because there are others on that way, here are all of the targets I've laid for you (an why I did it as well)
A Double Top on the Pink Box (11.7k) was made. The run to those tops started at 6k and the target of a Double Top is the point it started so 6k for the Double Top. For this target to be valid price must turn the Double Top Support (9.2k) in to a resistance. (In my opinion it's doing that as you can see last candles at 4H are closing bellow it)
We can see this Bear Flag/Pennant forming, the target of the Flag/Pennant is usually the same % as the Pole, since our pole is 28.7% (downwards), 28.7% downwards (if the breakout happens at $8995) will be at $6413, it's all showed on the picture.
Ichimoku confirms this Bear Flag/Pennant because our cloud is acting as resistance and the cloud is dropping. (And so is the Tenkan and Kijun)
We also have this Head and Shoulders which I don't know if it can bee 100% valid because the Left Shoulder Top and the Head Top are the "same"... The concept it's there, and it helps 'prove' this drop. We have the neckline (which was also a old support, the left white box) at 7.8k we should see some action there, on the right white box. Target is the same as the others around 6k.
Last but not least is the WORST case scenario, if we count the All time high as the end of 12345 waves we'll have our ABC... Read the Blue box to understand...
I'm leaving Magic's, D4's and Peaceful's TA on the related ideas (an other 2 of my own older ideas) You can read all the updates on those ideas, D4, Magic and Peaceful are all great traders which I follow!
This is one of many ideas I've made, you can check my other older Ideas just open my profile and see!
DISCLAIMER:
This is my own personal opinion! Don't take what I say for granted, this is NOT financial advice. Don't spend what you can't afford to lose, and remember, patience is a key on this Crypto Market! Hold is life!
Trade safe and have a nice day!
Bearish Pennant
NEO USDT Bear Pennant, heading down, down, downThe bear trend will likely continue when we get to the end of this pennant. A lot of cryptos seem to be doing the same thing and pushing further down , a lot are hitting key buy zones. We will have to wait and see what NEO does here to have a better idea of the buy zone.
ETH looks in terrible shapeAfter a mega run up over the new year, ETH has fallen on some hard times.
Right now, ETH is below the daily 20EMA and 50MA; typically this means a move to the 200MA is the next likely target. There are other bearish patterns in the mix as well including a large bear pennant and small bear flag.
The first target for ETH will be ~$600. We should see a large bounce, like it's prior low at the start of Feb. If this fails to hold a target of around $300 is in play, but lets cross that bridge if we get to it.
VEN potential reversal, finallyMACD about to reverse to bullish on the 4hr, rsi is hitting the historical reversal zone, and it respected the bearish pennant that is drawn in lighter orange. We would really need a good push with volume, which is definitely possible with VEN's new BMW partnership announcement. However, we did just have the rebranding event, and I feel like everyone who wants to own ven, already does, so this is where we may run into issues with the volume. I will update when we break up, down, or sideways from the triangle.
BTC potential bear pennant incoming Outlook for BTC continues bearish as current failure to break downtrend resistance at $8,4k has potential to put BTC into another bear pennant . Indicators looking bearish on all timezones from 1hr to 4hr and sell pressure continues to build. At this point the best outcome for price action is that a bounce and reversal is found in the A box, which would cause an inverse head and shoulders with potential for trend reversal. A bounce at B, could be considered double bottom reversal and the bulls will appear again. C, would be the most troubling result an could create bastard bear flag so for the love of god if you're buying the dip tell everyone to do it at A!
Alternative possibility of Adam & Eve double bottom at C, next few days will show BTC future through March
Verge (XVG) Analysis - Bearish or Bullish?Verge (XVG) is currently a very interesting coin to look at - in this analysis, I will show XVG from different perspectives, both in the short-term and long-term. Where XVG truly goes all depends on future movement, but I hope to give a general sense of XVG's position.
XVG broke downwards, stopping, as it seems, along a trend line that is roughly around some of the lower ends of the 3-hour candlestick chart. Breaking this trend line could very well mean a large sell off, especially considering the various other pressures - from up-close (15-minute chart), we can spot a descending triangle as buyers and sellers determine where to take the coin next - and, given the sharp drop preceding it, this could very well signal a bearish pennant, adding fuel to the fire that will break through the 0.00000814 BTC resistance to challenge the next few resistance lines.
On the other hand, if XVG breaks upwards from this triangle, it will likely shoot to 0.00001200 BTC. What supports this is the testing of the lower flat trend line around 0.00000870 BTC - four bounces upwards from it, which shows strength. I've also noted another price point as a tentative one in dark red - 0.000001448 BTC, as it will also be breaking from a descending channel that I believe XVG has been following - regardless, I generally think that the price will eventually shoot up to the larger, descending trend line in peach.
Finally, there is a potential for XVG to be incredibly bullish - and this is because there is a larger bullish pennant forming on the 4-hour/8-hour chart. Whether or not the potential move up will trigger the breakout of this potential pennant is unknown to me, but it is certainly something to watch out for. I don't like to talk about rumors or the success of the coin's teams since they can often be very subjective topics, but I believe a well-timed news release may definitely help the coin burst upwards, depending on how bullish it is - and some rumors have been going around... however, I want to emphasize that whether they or true or not, I prefer not to comment on how true or false they may be. Great profit can certainly be made, wherever XVG moves.
Regarding potential profit, 20% can be made on the move upwards from the triangle, and 54%-65% can be made on the long to the top of the highest trend line (warning: a little risky, may not play out). As for the potential large bullish pennant, a heft 110% can be secured if XVG makes this move up - an opportunity not worth missing!
Let me know if you have any thoughts on the analysis - this is my first time trying to show the same coin from different perspectives on TradingView, and trying to get everything in the shot, as well as making it look good, was a little tricky.
As always, trade with care. Wait for confirmation, and then enter. Good luck to all in future trades!
If you like my analysis or I helped you in any way, feel free to send a tip - any support is greatly appreciated!
BTC: 37Y9BfaRS65fAXK3swnW8EWG9NDPeF2wrM
ETH: 0x97F20b3536dB21C07691fD46e021bCDd8e49483e
Verge (XVG) Consolidation (Important for Future Movement)Verge (XVG) has been the target of a lot of buzz and volume, and as we approach New Years, the chart seems to reflect the uncertainty of the buyers and sellers. On a smaller scale, there is a visible symmetrical triangle, nearly perfect at each being 20 degrees, whose breakout will likely determine the path of Verge.
There is also a potential larger bearish pennant, yet this consolidation could very easily result in a rise should the news prove bullish enough over the next few days. Very likely, the movement from this triangle will likely be determined by the breakout of the former. I am uncertain on this pennant, but I do believe there is certainly consolidation occurring after this downtrend.
Should we break out from the smaller triangle, we could reach 0.0001395 BTC, and from there on 0.00001757 and onwards as the all-time high is tested - given the bullish sentiment around XVG, I would not be surprised if it shot much higher than 0.00001757. If we break down on the smaller triangle, we could head to 0.00000778 BTC, a good entry point if you wish to play within the triangle's movement, but be careful, because a break downwards could very much result in reaching 0.00000341 BTC, depending on how strong the resistance at 400 satoshis are - otherwise, we could very well end up along the low 300s.
Wherever Verge will go is not very clear to me, but there is certainly high movement coming for Verge. I would suggest monitoring and waiting for confirmation, perhaps around 0.0001260 BTC for the breakout or 0.0000850 for bearish movement. Very risky to hold without setting stop losses. Trade with care.
BTCUSD:Facing CME Volume And A Bearish Formation. 20K Anyway?BTCUSD update: Minor retrace to the 18k level followed by a bullish pin bar off of a narrowing channel that points to an attempt at 20k. Now that both the CBOE and CME futures are in play, I anticipate more and more price noise in this market, and based on the current structure, a test of the psychological 20k level.
As far as levels goes, not much has changed except for the 20300 upper boundary of the reversal zone generated by the structure of the 18k retrace. This zone is narrow and is worth noting because of the psychological effect of the 20K level. Will price break it?
Based on the current bullish pin bar that is unfolding, price is likely to push through momentarily at least. Markets that intend to sell often reject major levels quickly, not form a pin bar within the lower boundary of a bullish trend line just under the resistance level.
With that being said, there is a conflicting structure than may lead to a much broader correction soon after the 20k test and that is the bearish pennant formation which is made clear by the converging trend lines. These formations have been appearing frequently in these markets only to see price go higher, but that does not mean they should be ignored when they appear.
As the trading day progresses, the CME futures volume should increase and have a stronger effect on the price action. Keep in mind futures contracts can easily be shorted which will compensate for the absence of selling that has been built into these markets thanks to regulation in the U.S. And if institutions decide to get short, they can afford to do it big, and with ease now that the CME offers a 5 coin contract compared to the one coiner over at the CBOE.
So price is at a psychological resistance, gyrating around 18974 which is a 2.618 target (written about in previous report) and in the process of building a bearish pennant formation. Even though the overall trend is still bullish, these conflicting signs say three things to me: A broader short term correction is more likely, if you are long, lock in some profit, and do not take any new long swing trades at these levels.
And as far as the alts, people keeping asking me what will happen if this market presents a more serious correction and the answer is: who knows. The relationship with the alts fluctuates wildly. One minute BTC sells while alts push dramatic new highs, and the next minute, they are all showing the similar price structures as they are at the moment. I don't rely on that relationship and instead evaluate the price action of each coin independently.
In summary, it will be interesting to see how the CME affects this market now that professionals and institutions can get into the game safely and with size. As far as my plan goes, I am patiently waiting for a reasonable retrace to a projected support which is at the 14500 area. IF price retests that support, I will then evaluate for a bullish reversal. Otherwise I have no reason to take any action at this time. If the market can't meet my criteria, then I can't take any risk because the market doesn't control me, I control myself. That is what a trading plan is all about.
Comments and questions welcome.
Quick announcement: Tomorrow I am going to appear live on NASDAQ's Twitter broadcast. They are going to interview me about the coins. I will post the link in tomorrow's report so keep an eye out for it.
Very Clear Bearish Rectangle on EURJPYHere you can see a clear image of a bearish rectangle, showing that the bearish trend halted and began to consolidate. It respected the rectangle perfectly for over 12 days without any large breakouts. As time moved on it was comfortably within the rectangle however at the same time was being squeezed into a bearish pennant. This was a case of waiting patiently to see whether the bulls would take control of the initial bearish trend and turn it around. After a strong rejection of the 132.379 fib level it then began shifting upwards, taking some time to break through the 132.767 level. Once it did it was then clear the bulls had taken control and was an opportunity to then place a long position. I had to be patient on waiting for this move but it eventually broke out.
BTCUSD: Bear Pennant ContinuationHello Fellow Traders,
What we are looking at right now is a bearish continuation pattern. That being said the 4127 region is a very very important place to watch. It is do or die for BTCUSD. If the bears win we will see 3000-2900. If the bulls win we will see 4500s and we will take a look at where we are going after that.
Happy Trading
Bear flag/pennantIf you click "share" - "make it mine" then you will be able to set up alarms on those lines as I described for yourself. In case of a proper break out, the conservative target is indicated by green line and actual target is indicated by orange line. However, we can stop going down at any of the major supports that are indicated in my previous idea (linked below)
Right now I have no position, but if we cross this thin red line downwards, I will make a small short again of 4-5 USD (as long as it's inside the pennant gray lines) finally we see some clearer formation of a bear flag/pennant. The volume reduction also indicates the same.
So, to take the most out of TradingView we can set up alarm on this thin red line with "crossing down" option and when that goes off, we can open small short unless we have had a huge spike of volume on that candle going up .
Next, we can set up alarm on that line slightly below the pennant bottom and go short if the volume confirms the break out (spike in volume relative to the near 5 candles or so). This is the main potential play.
Finally, we can set up another alarm on the green line slightly above the pennant to either go long (very small, of about 4 dollars, as we don't have a clear target) if we have huge volume on the break up (which is very unlikely but possible) or just to know that our bear pennant/flag has failed and is irrelevant now.
As usual, Happy Trading :)
Even more bad indicators for FBHistorically when FB reaches this vortex negative level, the stock drops an average of 6.71%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to reap the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. Large amounts of profit taking can become the catalyst for a near term drop in markets, or a correction which could lead to a greater than 6% drop.
Bearish Pennant on XAU/USD @ D1The bearish pennant on the daily chart of XAU/USD offers a downside breakout opportunity. The pennant's borders and its pole are marked with the yellow lines. My potential entry point is at the cyan line. My potential take-profit level is at the green line. I will set the stop-loss order to the high of the breakout bar (not shown).