Bitcoin: History Repeats itself. Hello everyone,
Quick post for tonight. This is hard to say but I believe Bitcoin is about to drop. History is showing a clear repetition of itself within this chart. Here are the technicals:
1. Negative RSI and MACD: Negative RSI and MACD equate to a weakness in trend. When price is going up and MACD/RSI aren't correlating, it signals exhaustion.
2. Ascending Wedge: there are 2 clear ascending wedges on this chart and that pattern is bearish. Breaking below it confirms a bear movement following.
3. Broken uptrend + retest: The uptrend has been broken (implying a new trend forming) and retested, which confirms that the old trend is no more.
4. Bearish Price action: this current price action is volume going down as price is going up. That implies a bear price action structure or current trend exhaustion (bullish exhaustion).
5. We are not truly in a bull market until all time highs have been tested and broken. - This should be obvious.
6. Weekly HS neckline at 50k has been retested: this confirms the bearish head and shoulders pattern.
I know this is not the post you want but it is the post you need to at least give some thought to. I made something similar back when bitcoin was between 50-65k. Look what happened. Protect your profits, utilize risk management, and please stop listening to the crazy overly bullish people on crypto twitter and youtube. They make money when you get liquidated on trades. Notice the high amount of scam wicks recently.
As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading.
Bearishpriceaction
No, it wasn't Elon Musk. Bitcoin was exhaustedHello Everyone,
I've been seeing a lot of tweets and posts suggesting this drop and the few more to come are a result of Elon Musk's tweet about Tesla no longer accepting bitcoin. How can you blame one man's tweet, that even states "Tesla will not sell it's Bitcoin" for the drop in price? Here's the truth:
Bitcoin has been far over extended since the first move to $60,000 in the middle of March. On top of that, Bearish divergence has been building on MACD, RSI, and price action. Let's look at volume, as the price kept moving up, volume kept moving down. This is class A bearish price action. This drop was very obvious from the final move to $65,000 then the retest (right shoulder of the HS) of $60,000.
Elon Musk may have thrown a match into a pit of gasoline, but so many other factors were doing the same. This market needs to cool off to gain more investor interest to make higher highs. Bitcoin has finally tested its 20 weekly MA after 5 months of not being anywhere close.
Are we in a bear market? No, we are still far from a bear market. My guess is that we see a similar move to the chart on the right. There was a valid HS, Bitcoin dipped 10%, then it consolidated. After consolidation, it was moon time.
I imagine something similar will happen. This head and shoulders is to reset the market for another large move upwards.
I hope this helps clear the air. Price action, in my opinion, is the best way to indicate the health of a market move. Exhaustion was inevitable.
As always, be patient, have risk management, and good luck trading!
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000)
Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery
In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover
above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance.
On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area.
M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear
trend.
Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break.
A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support
zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BTC - D1 - STILL IN A DOWNTREND...D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt seen yesterday (thanks to Mr Elon Musk...which "help" and triggered
a sharp upside move in a couple of hours (31990 towards 38620 !), BTC did not manage to close and hold
above the downtrend line resistance which is still in place and which worked perfectly well in rejecting
5 times breakouts attempts !
In addition, yesterday's price action should be seen as a bearish pattern, BULLS loosing the battle against
the BEARS.
Moreover, yesterday's closing has been below KS and MBB which continue to remain very good barometers.
No change in my bearish expected scenario which is calling for a retest of the psychological 30'000 level first.
A failure to stay above 31990 (former low of yesterday) would set the tone for the ongoing trading session.
IMPORTANT to note, the critical trading range between 30400-28800.
Indeed a failure to stay and hold above that area, would directly put the focus on my first strategic target
@ 27426 ahead of lower levels.
As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the current downside risk, the first positive signal
would be a daily closing level above MBB, downtrend line resistance and last but not least above KS, currently @ 35400 !
Watch shorter time frames H4, H1,M15 to initiate countertrend tactical positions in respecting a disciplined and rigorous
Risk & Reward approach in this "current" high volatility market environment !
Have a great weekend
Ironman8848
ADABTC | Key Level | Bearish Price Action | Trade SetupToday's analysis – ADABTC – Showing signs of exhaustion as it tests key a support level. Breaking below support, price is likely to retrace to daily support. However, if PA continues to respect the 21 EMA, a bullish continuation is probable, negating the thesis.
Points to consider:
- Bearish price action
- S/R flip re-test (trend reversal)
- 21 EMA (visual guide)
- RSI testing 50
- Bearish Stochastics
ADABTC showing signs of a local trend reversal as price retraces from local highs where bull moves are quickly being sold into by the bears. With body candle-closes below local support, price will likely retrace to daily support where it finds an equilibrium between supply and demand before a decisive macro trend continuation or reversal.
A break below the 21 EMA forms a bearish bias and an S/R flip re-test of local support and the 21 EMA will form a lower high, confirming the bearish bias.
RSI forming a lower high projection. A break below 50 is needed for price to break local support and retrace to lower levels.
Stochastics projecting down, breaking below 50 indicate decreasing momentum in the market.
Overall, in my opinion, a body candle close below local support validates a short trade to daily support with risk defined (SL) near local highs.
What are your thoughts?
If you’ve read this far - thank you for following my work!
And as always,
Focus on you, and the money will too!
SPX Topped Out? Channel Neckline Breached | Bearish PA Todays analysis – SPX – breaking bearish from its long-lived multi-month ascending channel
Points to consider:
- Channel support breached
- Testing daily support and 200 DMA
- Bearish price action
- RSI breaking below 50
- Stochastics oversold
SPX needs a daily body candle close below channel support for a bearish bias in the market.
Currently retesting daily support, in confluence with the 200 MA where price previously held support. However a weak bounce, forming multiple bearish engulfing candles, price is likely to break down further.
Breaking below $2960 will form a technical lower low and an S/R flip at daily support confirms a trend reversal, solidifying the bearish bias.
RSI has broken below 50, indicative of increasing weakness in the market. Stochastics are oversold and may remain oversold for some time.
Overall, in my opinion, further price development is likely to confirm trend reversal as price retraces lower from these levels, validating structural support as the next technical target.
What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments below!
And if you’ve read this far - thank you for following my work!
As always,
Focus on you, and the money will too!
EURCAD - D1 - xabc pattern I can see that price has been bearish from the top at about 1.615€ ...
Now that price seems to have pulled back at 50% around 1.556€ at the beginning of last week.
Price actually ended up last Friday with a nice tail around 1.532€ at a nice support /resistance
Which tells me that price may be ready to go further down forming a nice XABCD pattern.
price has been ranging today (another slow monday) ... and we've got some big new this week
pattern + bearish trend + fibo level .