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Bearishstructure

BTC - D1 - EN ROUTE FOR 30'300...Failure t o breakout the important resistance level of 34'970 mentioned yesterday triggered a new selling pressure which pushed down the BTC, filling on its way the 50 % Fib retracement. Next support level is @ 31'665 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of the triangle technical target of 30'300 which is also the 78.6 % Fib retracement and which is expected to hold ! Indeed, close to the psychological level of 30'000, it is highly expected to see some buyers again... As already mentioned several times, watch shorter time frames very closely to detect early reversal signals which may be triggered mainly by bullish divergences on intraday time frames. Have fun, take care and all the best my friends :-) Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H1 - DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS - TRIGGER @ 32524 !Looking at the H1 time frame, a RSI bullish divergence triggered a short term recovery, in building on its way a potential double bottom, currently in progress. Trigger level @ 32'524 ! A H1 closing level above the trigger level would be the first signal for further upside towards the double bottom target which is @ 33777 which coincides with the bottom resistance of H1 clouds and slightly higher there is the 61.8 % Fib ret (33895) also in the clouds area. So watch carefully price action over the coming period (s) which will validate or invalidate this short term double bottom formation. Once again, any recovery should still be seen as a tactical corrective move only, providing some very short term buying opportunity which should be managed with discipline in adopting an appropriate RR approach (trailing stop loss !) A failure to confirm this very short term reversal pattern and a breakout on the downside of the former low (31'271 would directly put the focus on the psychological 30'000 support level ahead of former low of 28'600. My first significant strategic support level remains @ 27'169 (61.8% Fib ret 3850-64895) Have a great weekend. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - D1 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY - SELL ON RALLY !No change in my view which still express some tactical buying opportunity in a broad strategic bear trend ! Indeed, despite an intraday high of 35289 reached yesterday's, BTC failed to firstly close above Kijun (34970), and secondly is currently still below Mid Bollinger Band. Recent and current price action is confirming what has been said before and any recovery or exaggeration 35'500-36'000 should be used as a good strategic selling opportunity. Watch shorter time frames to get clues and validation or invalidation on my bearish expected scenario. Have a nice trading day. All the best. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY ! SELL ON RALLY .After having reached a low of 31'163 nearly (very close of my first target of 31'025 ), a bullish divergence detected on H1 triggered a corrective upside move towards a high so far of 33'240. As you can see on this hourly chart the Kijun-Sen worked perfectly well as resistance level to break ! In order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure, BTC needs first to clearly move and hold above KS (currently @ 32'864) which should be, of course confirmed by a breakout of the clouds resistance area in this H1 time frame, which coincides also to the downtrend line resistance (in red). CONCLUSION : No change in my view which is still calling for a move towards the psychological support level of 30'000 ahead of lower levels with the first significant support level @ 27'169 (61.8% Fib ret 3850-64895) STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING :BTC REMAINS A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT A BUY ON DIPS YET ! TACTICALLY SPEAKING : IT IS ANOTHER STORY AND A LOT OF VERY SHORT TERM BUYING OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR IN DUE COURSE TRIGGERED BY BULLISH DIVERGENCE (S) ON SHORT TERM TIME FRAMES. AS ALREADY MENTIONED, I STRONGLY SUGGEST TO PROTECT ANY TACTICAL LONG EXPOSURE TAKE IN USING A DISCIPLINATED RISK MANAGEMENT (TRAILING STOP LOSS !) Have a great trading day and all the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - W1 - BEARISH ENGULFING! EN ROUTE FOR 30'000...THEN LOWER !Last week price action (black candle) triggered, on a closing basis, a BEARISH ENGULFING pattern ! Ongoing bearish price action will continue to weigh on the BTC in opening the door for a retest of former lows of 31'025, 30'066, psychological 30'000 support level, for the next significant target of 27'169, being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 3'850-64895 rally. Interesting to note that this target coincides also with the weekly clouds support area(27150-22925) and which should be seen as a very strong support zone in this time frame. Watch shorter time frame for validation or invalidation of this expected scenario. BTC is currently far away of KS or pivot level @ 45'363 ! In order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure, BTC should at least, recover above the primary downtrend line resistance ahead of KS, previously mentioned. Some tactical trading opportunities will, in due course, of course occur; offering countertrend buying opportunities which should be seen as a corrective move only on a broad bear trend ! PLEASE KEEP IN MIND TO PROTECT YOUR COUNTERTREND EXPOSURE WITH TIGHT TRAILING STOP LOSS !! Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care If you find my analysis as an added value for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who did not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 in your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
7
BTC - ONGOING DOWNTREND STILL INTACT !M1 : Recovery attempt failed...! W1 : Bearish engulfing pattern in progress (wait W1 closing for validation or invalidation) D1 : Below the clouds and for the time being below the cluster of TS, MBB and KS In order to neutralise the ongoing downtrend, BTC should at least, quickly recover above MBB (@ 37'040) ahead of TS, currently @ 38'000). A failure to do it would probably increased this ongoing selling pressure, in opening the door for lower levels towards 33'500/33'000 first ahead of 31'000/30'000. H4 : 61.8% Fib ret @ 34'965 filled, with an intraday low of 34'718. Below the clouds. In this time frame, first significant resistance level is @ 36'460 (TS) ahead of the 38'000 area, level already mentioned in D1. H1 : The low @ 34'718, triggered a bullish divergence which pushed, slightly up the BTC, facing currently MBB as first resistance level ahead of KS slighly higher @ 36'345 M30 : Bullish divergence also clearly confirmed. Watch clouds resistance area which also coincides with H1 KS ! M15 : Currently facing clouds resistance zone M5 : Currently attempting to upside breakout a triangle pattern (Warning the breakout is to close of the Apex, which means this kind of triangle should be seen cautiously !!) CONCLUSION : No change in my bearish view, already expressed long time ago, any recovery should be seen as a tactical move only and not as a strategic trend reversal yet. ONLY A MOVE ABOVE 43'380 ON A WEEKLY BASIS WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO. Have a nice weekend and have fun. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - GLOBAL OVERVIEWM1 : Currently holding above the Kijun Support level (34'372) W1 : Below the KEY PIVOT LEVEL @ 43'380 D 1 : Yesterday's failure to manage a recovery, on a daily closing basis, above the former support trend line, triggered a new selling wave pressure H4 : First target @ 37'400 reached with a low so far @ 37'224 H1 : Short term level to watch at are : 38'207 on the upside 37'224 on the downside Interesting to note that the Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 38'204 ! A clear breakout of this resistance area would put the focus again towards the 39'000 area which is also, by the way the bottom of the clouds resistance zone in this H1 time frame On the other side , a failure to hold above the former low of 37'224 would directly put the focus on 36'183 (50% Fib ret and also roughly the bottom of the clouds support zone in H4) M30 : Sideways price action M15: Same than M30 M5 : Above the clouds and also, currently in a sideways price action. CONCLUSION : LOOKING AT THE H4 TIME FRAME, ONLY A CLEAR SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 39'500/39640 (FORMER HIGH) WOULD TEMPORARILY NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING BEARISH MOOD ! Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES - AT A GLANCEM1 : Ongoing bearish price action in progress. W1 : Last week failure to recover above the W1 pivot level @ 41'230 confirmed that the downtrend is still intact D1 : Despite yesterday's closing (39'220) which was above the important MBB level (38'900) I have mentioned in my last analysis (see related idea below), BTC did not managed to stay above that very important pivot level !! Ongoing candle is showing currently a long black candle in progress (bearish signal) which also invalidated, for the time being the upside breakout of a triangle formation: On Daily basis, closing level today will be very important to watch as a failure to quickly recover above 39'000/40'000 would confirm further downside for the upcoming session (s), which is my expected scenario, still calling for lower levels, as mentioned several times in the past ! H4 : Both primary and secondary downtrend are still intact after the yesterday's failure to confirm the breakout of the secondary downtrend line resistance; this reversal has been triggered by a long black candle (bearish engulfing) which is in progress to be confirmed(in a couple of minutes !)by a second long black candle. Finally, as you can see, the clouds support zone(currently 35950-36000) is very, very thin = very fragile which means that a downside attack will be very likely successful and will open the door for lower levels towards 35'500 first ahead of 34'700 congestion support zone. H1: Below the former uptrend support line, below the clouds and below the cluster of MBB, KS and TS. M30 : Same than H1 M15 : Same than M30 M5 : RSI bullish divergence triggered some recovery attempt; watch cluster as the first resistance area ahead of the clouds currently between 37000-37500. Only a sustainable recovery above that area would neutralise temporarily the ongoing downside risk in a short term perspective. Fib ret @ 37'396 (38.2%) - 37'745 (50%) - 38092 (61.8%) the latter level being, also the clouds resistance area on M15 chart ! CONCLUSION : GLOBAL PICTURE IS STILL SHOWING A BROAD BEAR TREND IN PROGRESS AND IN ORDER TO CONFIRM A TREND REVERSAL, BTC SHOULD RECOVER FIRST ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 40'000 WHICH SHOULD BE CONFIRMED BY A BREAKOUT OF THE 41'130 AREA WHICH IS THE WEEKLY PIVOT LEVEL !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
7
The Wyckoff Distribution Method Study on BitcoinEvening Traders, In Today’s Analysis I am going to focus on the Wyckoff Distribution theory on Bitcoin's current Price Action, the similarities are striking and I do believe we are in Phase D, approaching Phase E. Firstly I’ll list the acronyms for your reference: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range - BC (Buying Climax) – Volume Climax - AR (Automatic Reaction) – Strong buy pressure - ST (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of Structure - SOW (Show of Weakness) – Bearish Price Action - LPSY (Last Point of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs - UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) – Usually a Bull Trap/ Liquidity Grab There are 3 LAW's to adhere to in Wyckoff’s Theory; 1. The law of Supply and Demand 2. The law of Cause and Affect 3. The law of Effort The Law of Supply and Demand; - When Demand is greater than Supply, price increases, this is evident in Phase A of Bitcoin's Price Action. - When Supply is greater than Demand, price falls, Phase D reflects this in Bitcoin’s current Market Structure. The Law of Cause and Affect; - Creates clear price boundaries that set objectives, these are essentially the Support and Resistance levels of the Trading Range. Evident in Bitcoin, (Blue Support and Resistance lines), price bounces between these pivots as distribution occurs. The Law of Effort - Used to indicate momentum shifts,( institutions offloading their holdings), price tends to be weak with consecutive lower highs as supply takes over, (Phase D and E). - Divergences between Volume and Price coincide with the market direction as a whole, evident in Bitcoin as volume continues to decline in Phase D. Moving on to the technical aspect keeping these laws in mind will better help understand the chart. Phase A: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range expand on Bitcoin and Price Action widens, this is an early indication of momentum shifting from the Parabola. - BC (Buying Climax) – Essentially a volume climax in Phase A that marks the temporary top of the uptrend. - SC (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of the structure, Bitcoin makes an attempt to take out recent highs but fails and rolls over into the next Phase. Phase B: - UT (Up-Thrust) – A swing high failure, the price of Bitcoin fails to establish a high and does not close above resistance. - SOW (Show of weakness) – Bearish Price Action, Bitcoin’s price essentially starts to show weakness as the law of cause and affect takes over. Sign that Supply is starting to take over the market. Phase C: - UTAD (Uptrend after Distribution) – Essentially a liquidity grab/ bull trap which takes place at a key level in phase C. Bitcoin establishes this by failing to close above $10,428, trapping long buyers before an impulse down. Phase D: - LPSY (Last Points of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs is the characteristics in this Phase. Bitcoin’s Price Action fails to rally as Supply starts to overweight Demand. Buyer Exhaustion is evident here as price starts to roll over into Phase E. Phase E: - Price is in control by Supply and continues with consecutive lower highs. Show of weakness is great in this phase; taking out the lower boundary of distribution usually proceeds with a significant bear rally. If Bitcoin holds current projection (lower highs), a test of the lower boundary will be the pivot point – Completion of the Wyckoff study. This theory helps understand the distribution and accumulation process of the market as whole, certain objectives have to be met in order to validate the study. Bitcoins market structure has been in synch with the theory thus far, if weakness continues to show in phase D and E, the probability of taking out the lower boundary will increase. An important takeaway from this theory is to understand the relationship between Demand and Supply. The dynamics between Demand and Supply is what moves the overall market, usually in accordance to the objectives of larger institutions (Smart Money). The Wyckoff’s theory helps largely in identifying these shifts in momentum where retail investors can position themselves in accordance to smart money. Hope you learnt something new in this analysis! Thank you for following my work And remember, “The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss” ― Richard D. Wyckoff
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AzizKhanZamani
56