My daily short trade on EUR-JPY.My daily trade on: FX:EURJPY
I'm gonna take this trade on EUR-JPY because of: trendline liquidity and respected order block. 3 drive pattern shows liquidity grab and quick return to the orderblock liquidity.
Bearish Trend Line
Bitcoin - 20k or 18k before 40k! CME GAP
The solution to this analysis is to find the most probable reversal point for this corrective move, that is currently happening on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin failed to make a parabolic move. If we compare the start of the bull market in 2018, it was different because Bitcoin parabolically rose. But this time is different!
We must now concentrate on catching the bottom of this correction so that we can ride wave 3. Waves 3 are usually the most impulsive and most parabolic, so you really want to be in the market.
To catch the bottom of this corrective move, we need to use the most effective tools, such as FIB, GAPS, and Elliott Waves. Elliott Wave works best with crypto and stocks and worst with forex, so you want to use different tools for each environment.
On the chart, you can see 4 possible reversal points. Which one do you think is the most probable? Let me know in the comment section; I want to see your opinion! In my opinion, the 0.618 FIB seems the most logical level for a trend reversal.
But POC and the start of the gap at 16859 are also pretty juicy. But it's too low; it's hard to believe that the market will go back to these levels. On the other side, everything is possible.
Also, we have a CME gap on BTC1! futures, which is between 19995 and 20460. The chances of a pullback in this area are very high!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
The true issue and threat is the unfilled GAP between 16.8K and 20.4K. Usually, all gaps tend to be filled. You can do a backtest, and you will see that this is pretty much true. We don't need to close the gap completely, but partially, yes. That's why it's almost a guarantee that Bitcoin is going to touch 20500 sooner or later. It can be this month, next month, or even later next year, in 2024. I hope it's going to happen sooner rather than later!
I am not shorting anything, just to be clear. I rather prefer short-term longs with low RR rather than shorting. I don't want to play against the main trend, which is bullish! I believe we will hit a new all time high on Bitcoin this year or next year.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BTC -Bearish Expansion Triangle PatternBitcoin as per 4hr. #TA at #KuCoin
At Present #Bitcoin moving as per #BearishExpansion #TrianglePattern, and BTC will be soon at $22.5k to $21.5k Zone, while February Lower Divergence target is $20.5k... Just wait n watch, but not take big risk on long term future tradings...
ETH May Reach $1826 after a Pullback to ConsolidatePrimary Chart: ETHUSD on a 2D Time Frame
The Primary Chart shows ETH's major down trendlines over the past 14 months. The first down trendline (magenta) remains effective and has contained price since the all-time high in November 2021. The second down trendline (gold) has been broken. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high (teal) is currently at $2230. Fibonacci levels are also shown on the primary chart, as well as major support and resistance levels from the past few months.
This is a short-term bullish idea. It's odd having a bullish idea in the crypto space—but this idea is very short-term. Despite recent progress, much more structural change is needed before bulls can call victory with a new primary degree uptrend. Bear markets commonly see multi-week and multi-month corrective rallies. SquishTrade is *not* calling a new bull market / long-term uptrend in ETH. To the contrary, this is just a corrective rally until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise. Down trendlines can break and be readjusted without a new uptrend being established, and inversely, up trendlines can break and be readjusted without a new downtrend being created.
In any event, long-term buy and "hodlers" should be careful here and use stops consistent with prudent / professional trading principles. If the time horizon is extremely long (forever) because you believe no other technology could ever possibly render ETH obsolete, then maybe you have inside information that does not require any caution whatsoever.
The key technical points are summarized below:
The logarithmic down trendline remains intact currently. BTC's equivalent down trendline (on a log chart from all-time highs) has been broken, and it remains to see if that break will hold. It might hold for some time as the shape and structure of the downtrend is reestablished. The best the bulls can achieve, however, is a sideways to neutral trend for some time. Major bear markets do not typically reverse in a V-shaped fashion.
Price is currently contending with a key Fibonacci level, the .618 retracement of the mid-August 2022 to November 2022 decline. This level lies at $1664.82.
Price could push a little higher from here if it wants to extend a bit more. The move in BTC and ETH has been nothing short of explosive, typical in bear markets, likely fueled by shorts covering and a lot of upside hedging and FOMO. But in all likelihood, a consolidation / pullback is in the cards soon. See the RSI divergence (bearish) on Supplementary Chart A that has now arisen on daily charts. Divergences also appear in momentum on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts using RSI and other indicators, including the Bollinger Bands.
Supplementary Chart A
Because the November 3, 2022, high was broken, this sets up a shorter-term bullish structure potentially. The key word here is shorter-term. Again, this is not a call for a new bull market. But traders can try to capture upside moves with tight stops at logical supports. Right now, price is extended. Don't recommend chasing unless you really know what you're doing!
If the down trendline (magenta) is broken, the measured move target is the more aggressive target for this move. That target lies at $2473. This target is not worth discussing, and not viable, unless and until the down TL from the all-time high is convincingly broken.
Thank you for reading this post.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Bitcoin - 25% CRASH from this level! Be prepared.
The bulls are incredibly strong! This may be the best January in Bitcoin's history. But the bears are waiting patiently to short bitcoin at the key level!
The Resistance 1 level is strong because there is a POC of the previous structure, the start of the massive previous GAP, and a horizontal level from 2021.
With this strong confluence, we can short bitcoin on the futures market for a potential 20%–25% profit. Like I have said many times, I am here for the bulls and bears. So this is clearly an analysis for the bears.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
I am a professional trader with almost 6 years of experience in the crypto market. I can tell you that with this major resistance, we will see a pretty strong rejection!
What I recommend you to do is to short Bitcoin between 28,750 - 30,100 . I will specify this level more precisely in one of my next analyses on lower time frames or privately!
If we take a look at the volume profile, we can see there is no volume area. These areas tend to be filled, and at the end of the area, we should see a big rejection.
We have only 4 strong resistance levels on the way up to the new all-time high. However, it may take some time to break it all down.
Bitcoin started its new bullish cycle in November 2022. I expect another bearish cycle to start sometime in September 2025. I have predictions for years or even decades in advance!
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Ethereum - Big overview of the bear market.
The bears are in full control because ETH is below the two major trendlines and also below the 200-day moving average.
We have a FTX GAP between 1545 and 1352. This gap was caused by a huge panic sell-off of traders due to the collapse of the FTX exchange and by CZ Binance, who tweeted that he was not going to buy FTX as he wanted. This gap can be filled, but of course it doesn't have to.
Also, there is a 0.618 FIB at 1415 + the top of the yellow trendline + the 200-day moving average, which is another strong resistance. The bulls need a lot of strength to break this zone, and even if they are able to do it, there is another white trendline, which is the top of the parallel channel at around 1800. It's hard to say if the bulls will be motivated enough to break it.
I don't want to be bullish about this strong resistance, but we can definitely touch it, no problem. At this moment, my trades are only short-term swing and intraday trades, so I am not thinking about buying any coins for the long term.
I still think the bear market will continue in 2023 because other coins look extremely bearish, including Bitcoin.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
As you can see on the chart, the price is moving in two parallel descending channels. The top trendline of the first white parallel channel has only two touches, so the third touch should be rejected strongly.
This is a bearish Elliott Wave count, and we are currently at the 3rd wave of the 5th wave. I suggest continuing lower to complete this impulse wave.
I would love to buy ETH for around 250 - 300. I believe it is possible to get there, based on other assets such as stocks. TSLA, META, NTFLX, etc. are experiencing the biggest crash in history. And ETH is also, basically, in the IT sector.
If ETH drops below the key resistance of 1073, I expect a huge flash crash to the bottom of the descending channel.
Overall, I am bearish, and we may definitely see some relief rally. But don't get rekt by the main resistance I mentioned earlier.
Look at my idea about SOLANA (exponencial growth) in the related section down below.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Solana - Exponential growth, right now!
Solana looks extremely strong at this moment, and it looks like we will have an explosive pump! But it has already begun.
From a technical perspective, we need to retest the previous blue trendline, which is at 29.8 USDT. It's also the point of control for the previous price action. This is the first profit target, and I recommend selling SOL here.
The second profit target is more advanced. There are a lot of stop losses above the wave (4), so the market might find enough strength to get there. It's at 48 USDT.
In my previous analysis on Solana, I recommended buying SOL at 8.6 USD, so check out my previous idea in the related section down below for more details.
The chart is printing a broadening falling wedge on the weekly chart, and there is definitely the possibility to touch the top of the wedge in the immediate short term!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the major impulse wave from the previous all-time high has been completed successfully, and at this point we should look for an ABC retracement to the upside.
I see a lot of signs that Solana has temporarily bottomed out on lower timeframes. The strength is currently incredible.
Counter-trends tend to be steeper, so there is a possibility of hitting my price target at warp speed.
If you want to trade Solana intraday, it's definitely a good opportunity because the volatility on this coin should be insane. I recommend only longs.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Solana - Buy here for a 452% PROFIT! (Best level)
You are wondering why SOL is falling drastically and maybe where the best level to buy is. In this analysis, I will show you!
Technically, this coin is very weak. The downtrend is steep and very impulsive, no doubt about it.
But it is also a great opportunity for buyers to speculate on the midterm long position. But first of all, we need to find the best level for it.
Fibonacci is a very powerful tool, and we can use the confluence of the FIB retracement and FIB extension to look for a level where there is likely to be a trend reversal point.
We need to take a FIB retracement (LOG FIB) from the previous huge uptrend from 2020–2021. We can see that 0.618 FIB is at 8.52 USDT. 0.618 FIB is, of course, the strongest FIB level.
Also, we need to take a FIB extension from wave 3 => 4 to predict a fifth wave. There is a pretty good chance that the trend reversal point can occur at the 1:1 FIB extension, which is around 8.74 USDT.
Because we have a very strong fibonacci support between 8.52 and 8.74 USDT, we can place a buy order here and wait for the price to reach this level!
Sounds pretty easy, doesn't it? I think we should see a lot of buyers here, and we can expect a major rally with a potential profit of 452%!
If you bought SOL at a higher price and you want to get out, then it's good news for you! I don't have any SOL at this moment, so I am waiting for the price to come to me!
The price is moving in the descending parallel channel, and this is also a great opportunity to buy SOL at the bottom of the channel, so we have another confluence to buy SOL!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
I hope you guys will take this trade! Take care.
For more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow", right now!
NVDA Fails at Channel Resistance after Largest Bear Rally YTDPrimary Chart: NVDA's Primary Downtrend Since November 2021 Represented by Parallel Channel and Anchored VWAP from ATH
Summary:
NVDA has been in a downtrend since its all-time high on November 22, 2022.
NVDA broke above its down TL on a linear chart briefly in whipsaw move (bull trap) on December 13, 2022. It failed decisively back below. This failure at the down TL shows that the downtrend has further to go, and that the TL remains effective as price exhausted almost immediately after breaking above it.
NVDA did not take out its prior major high from August 4, 2022, at $192.74. The intraday high from this bear rally was $187.90.
Short-term targets derived from Fibonacci levels and VWAPs include $157 to $160 (conservative) , and $147-$150 , and $133-$138 (aggressive) . The lower targets depend on the higher targets being reached and broken first, as usual. And all of the targets depend on a break of the March 2020 VWAP (pink) around $165. That level must break before any other targets can be viable.
1. NVDA has been in a downtrend since November 22, 2021, over one year ago. The rallies in the one-year downtrend have been impressive. Each time, market participants have bought dips heavily and pushed rallies fiercely upward with help from short-covering players and dealer-hedging unwinds in derivatives markets.
2. Below is a chart showing the bear rallies, each of which has been contained by the downtrend. Each rally represents years worth of gains in calmer up-trending markets excluding the powerful post-2020 bull fueled by easy central bank policy that fostered excessive liquidity in financial markets.
Supplementary Chart A: Percentage Gains for Each Bear Rally Contained by the Downtrend in NVDA
The most recent rally is plainly the largest in percentage terms. It has run about 73.7% higher from the October 2022 low.
3. In early November, SquishTrade posted about the powerful rally and hypothesized that it might run to $150. That prior post is linked here . NVDA ran to $150 and much further to $187.90. But ST cautioned that the rally should be respected, explaining as follows: "And that rally should continue to be respected until it's confirmed to be complete. A good way to gauge the rally off the lows is to use an upward trendline—here a parallel channel is used, and the lower boundary of the channel is the upward trendline off the lows." In other words, until the shorter-term uptrend off the lows was broken, the rally should be accepted. Fighting bear rallies (just like fighting any other market move) is futile. NVDA's uptrend was in fact violated with several whipsaw moves that were bear traps. After adjusting the line for the bear traps, the uptrend line was violated again December 6-7, 2022 with a major whipsaw move (see the false breakdown December 6-7, 2022, below the blue uptrend line from October 2022 lows, shown on the Primary Chart).
4. In short, this bear market has been exceedingly difficult to trade with outsized moves in short periods of time. But on December 13, 2022, it seemed NVDA would break above its down TL from the all-time high and change its downtrend structure. On Tuesday this week, NVDA rose to an intraday high of $187.90, coming close to breaking above the previous major high at $192.74 made on August 4, 2022. But NVDA's price reversed right on cue. It topped and reversed just below that August 4, 2022 high. NVDA's price has now fallen back below the down TL on a linear chart (shown on the Primary Chart). Note that NVDA has remained well below its down TL on a log chart, as shown below:
Supplementary Chart B: NVDA's Logarithmic Chart with a Down TL from the All-Time High in November 2021
5. Given how tricky this market has been, it seems prudent not to jump to any major conclusions about whether the low may be in for NVDA. Instead, it's better to watch the nature of the pullback first. SquishTrade keeps in mind that semiconductors tend to lead the broader equity markets, so keep in mind that NVDA may have made its final low, as counterintuitive as that may seem. That's not SquishTrade's official view, it's just a reminder to stay open and flexible. Take it one step at a time, level to level. For now, it seems a downward move has begun. Will it be corrective or impulsive? Let's wait and see.
6. A while back ST published the following chart showing a possible longer-term target in the $83 area (lets say $80-$85) or perhaps higher depending on where the uptrend line is tagged. This target still seems to be a higher probability area where price could fall in the longer term. That chart will be reposted below (note it is dated late September 2022, but it's still valid now). It's difficult to say when earnings will start deteriorating in earnest due to the coming recession. No one can predict exactly when the recession will hit. Perhaps markets are telling us it's just around the corner. But we have to remain open to all possibilities . However improbable it may be after the hawkish Fed presser this week, one cannot rule out a run up to challenge $200 or even (gasp) $258 (gap fill in early April 2022) before new lows are made. To be clear, this is not SquishTrade's forecast, but it's being discussed as an example of a price path that could confound traders and eventually lead to new lows while convincing many market participants that the October 2022 lows are final. Wouldn't that be painful and confusing and devious—and consistent with the maximum theory of pain in markets?
Supplementary Chart C: Long-Term Trendlines Showing Long-Term Target around $83
7. Shorter-term price targets include $157 to $160 (conservative), and $147-$150, and $133-$138 (aggressive).
8. Note that in addition to Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud charts were consulted, and the $150 level serves as weekly support on an Ichimoku Cloud chart (Kijun line for those familiar with those charts). The $140 level is important on daily charts into January 2023.
Supplementary Chart D: Ichimoku Cloud Charts (Weekly and Daily) with Yellow Circles Highlighting Key Supports
9. Remember, this is not a so-called trade "signal" or trade entry. SquishTrade prefers to analyze and describe the broader price environment using technical analysis but leave trading decisions, entries and exits up to each trader and investor's discretion. Traders and investors all have different time frames, rules, risk tolerances, and strategies. So trade according to your own rules, time frame, strategies and risk tolerance. Perhaps this technical analysis may help a trader look a little more carefully for a swing short setup in the coming days or weeks on a bounce to resistance. Perhaps it helps an investor hold off on committing long-term capital until the downtrend structure is negated. In short, this is a technical analysis and overview, not a trading service!
Thank you for reading.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for your interest in this technical analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Binance 80% CRASH! Black swan crypto event.
Fundamentals first. Binance Exchange is losing customers; that is a fact that everyone knows. The huge scandal occurred just before Christmas, but it looks like people have already forgotten what happened.
What is causing Binance Exchange to lose customers? First of all, Binance Exchange itself is banning users all around the world for no reason. My friend got banned before Christmas, 1 day after he opened a short position on BNBUSDTPERP futures. I received a lot of messages from people all around the world saying they received an email with a permanent account suspension. Half of them could withdraw their funds; the other half could not. So if you received this email and you don't know why, Binance Exchange can ban you without any reason, just if they want to.
There is a conspiracy theory (not verified) that Binance cannot have a monopoly on crypto; bigger players refuse to accept this fact, so they need to reduce it by force.
I think Binance is a great exchange, the most liquid exchange. But these are facts that everyone can verify.
BNB coin is currently worth 245 USDT. In my opinion, the price is very expensive at this moment, due to recent scandals and lost customers. 50 - 100 USDT is a fair price to me; I am not willing to pay more for the coin.
If something is too big, it will destroy itself, so there needs to be competition. Monopoly is not a good thing.
I want to give you some tips: do not short BNB directly on the Binance exchange if you don't want to get permanently banned like my friend.
The best option is to store your cryptocurrency in a hardware wallet such as Trezor. And use only a portion of your funds on exchanges to trade spot or futures. Leverage is good because you don't need all your funds and will transfer the risk to the exchange. Together with "stop limit" orders, you can trade very effectively even with a small amount of your funds on exchanges.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said on Twitter that "for most people, for 99% of people today, asking them to hold crypto on their own, they will end up losing it." In other words, if you hold crypto on your own, you will lose your funds, so you should hold all your funds on exchanges. I was shocked when I saw this. He made this statement during the massive bank run on his exchange, giving the impression to others that he was threatening people and convincing them that their funds are safe only in his exchange.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Now let's take a look at the technical analysis, which is the main reason why I am bearish on BNB. Both the technical and fundamental analyses are bearish.
The uptrend from June 13, 2022, to November 7, 2022, is clearly weak. It's an ABC corrective pattern, which is usually followed by a massive crash.
80% crash to 48 USDT is, in my opinion, very possible. Everything is going down, including META stocks, TSLA, etc. So if you believe in the future of Binance, 48 USDT is your desired price.
You have no idea how much BNB people accumulated in previous years or how many leveraged long positions on futures are open. The market usually wants liquidity.
The price has been moving in the descending parallel channel, and we can retest the channel from the downside.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the whole structure looks very weak. The first impulse wave appears to be an ending diagonal wedge. The bulls are not interested in this coin.
48 USDT is a very strong support because it marks the beginning of the massive gap from 2021 as well as the breakout level of the previous structure from 2020.
I am very bearish on the crypto space, not just the BNB coin, as you may have seen from my previous posts.
Binance is the most liquid exchange and CZ Binance did a great job bulding it.
Thank you, and happy New Year!
Bitcoin - The bottom will be here (89% chance)
I am telling you that the bottom on Bitcoin will be between 9600 - 10300 USD and I expect Bitcoin to reach this reversal zone in summer 2023!
You can place your buy orders here because the reaction on this level will be extremely high, so you can also buy/long BTC for a 50% profit.
The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin is to hit the bottom of the huge channel on the LOG weekly chart, which is unfortunately between 5200 - 5800 USD. But I think it's not going to happen.
If bitcoin falls below 5k, a lot of exchanges will be out of business because customers will leave the crypto space. 99% of people will be out of crypto, and it doesn't make too much sense. In crypto, there is a lot of money to be made for big players. They want crypto to rise as well.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has been moving in this massive ascending parallel channel with 5 touches. It's a valid channel on the LOG scale.
Volatility on Bitcoin is at an all-time low, and this should last until we find the bottom.
9600 - 10300 USD is a very strong zone because it is the 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave and also because there is an unfilled GAP.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the downtrend that started in November 2021 looks impulsive, so there is a high chance to go lower to complete the ABC retracement.
ETH could reach 250 USD and BNB could reach 48 USD. It's a very strong level for these coins that you will see in my next ideas, so follow me and hit the like!
Thank you, and happy trading!
XRP - Whales will start buying XRP here. But first a 55% DROP!
This head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart is almost ready for a breakdown, so this is your last chance to sell XRP and save your money!
On the other side, it's a great opportunity to short XRP on the futures market, as I already did at the top of the right shoulder (see my previous idea)!
But be careful; XRP is the beast, and I know XRP very well, more than most other people. Overlaps between waves are common, and movements can be difficult at times, but they are doable.
If you ask me when moon for XRP? I can tell you that after we hit 0,1 - 0,09 USDT, the whales will start buying massively.
The whales are going to send XRP to the moon! And I am telling you it will be massive; you don't want to miss it, so hit the LIKE if you think I am right.
But let's be realistic; this is the biggest bear market in history, and it's better to buy XRP at a cheaper price.
XRP is stuck in this parallel channel on the weekly chart, and the bears are in full control. There are no signs of a trend reversal at all. No buying alerts from whales
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this downtrend is so incomplete. We are in the middle of the bearish trend that started on April 13, 2021. But we are basically finishing the downtrend that started in 2018.
It can take another 1-2 years for XRP to bottom out. XRP is ranked 6 on CoinGecko, which is pretty impressive.
Transactions on XRP are extremely fast and extremely cheap, so it's a pleasure to use it for payments. But it's not a digital gold nor a store of value and will never be, this can only be Bitcoin.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Bitcoin - Secret pattern no one is talking about!
Bitcoin is bearish on higher timeframes, but on the 4-hour chart, BTC could reach 17,300–17,550 in the near term!
There is a massive opportunity to short Bitcoin at the top of two parallel channels or at the 0.618 - 0.5 FIB! We can go straight down to 10k after we reach this important level.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, it makes sense to complete the C wave to the upside. There are many shorts that must be eliminated before bitcoin experiences a historic crash!
The previous uptrend from November 21 to December 14 was nice, but unfortunately, there are a lot of signs of weakness in this particular move. Example: There is an overlap between wave W and wave X.
It looks like a WXYXZ triple-three (ZigZag) corrective structure. The subwaves look like zigzags, not impulses. That's why I am being a little bit pessimistic about this previous uptrend.
I post trade setups privately. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing.
15487 is the next major support, and I believe the market wants liquidity below this level. All stop losses should be hit first, and then I expect a bullish pullback. I will inform you in my next analysis, so make sure you follow me!
It's better for Bitcoin to crash to 10k immediately, so we can eventually start a new bull market sooner rather than later. Probably the last thing you want is for Bitcoin to slowly rise to 21k–30k and then dump to 10k.
Check out my related idea about "Bitcoin - Merry Christmas!" in the related section down below; you don't want to miss it.
I think we will see more major players capitulate, so stay safe! There is an opportunity to wipe out big players out of the game now or never.
Thank you.
SPX Breakout Fails, Bearish 1H 2023, PT $3810Primary Chart: SPX Long-Term TL and Anchored VWAPs, Fibonacci
SUMMARY:
SPX experienced a failed breakout above the downward TL. See the Primary Chart above. This suggests weakness ahead, but price may remain choppy throughout December.
Price failed right at key levels including the VWAP anchored to the all-time high on January 4, 2022, a downward trendline that has been effective YTD, and a key Fibonacci level.
Price targets will be initially set as follows: $3820 (conservative) and $3600-$3700 (aggressive).
Because December tends to experience some bullish seasonality, this may affect prices by causing choppiness, preventing prices from going straight to new lows until 1H 2023. Bullish seasonality may not be enough, however, to result in a so-called "Santa Rally."
S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) broke above its downward trendline (TL) today. Price initially gapped higher by approximately 2.78% from yesterday's close. At first, it may have appeared that the breakout above the downward TL would be meaningful. But the breakout has largely failed. Failed breakouts provide a somewhat bearish signal. However, in this choppy and unpredictable current market this year, a series of failed breakouts both to the upside and downside frequently preceded the actual directional move in many indices, stocks and other instruments.
Whether SPX's down TL continues to hold as resistance and to contain price below it will remain of utmost importance in the coming weeks. Tomorrow, the US central bank will hold its press conference after a two-day meeting that started today, December 13, 2022. Similar to the CPI data release today, the FOMC presser tomorrow may cause excessive volatility and whipsaws like other FOMC days this year. Additional central banks in Europe (ECB, BOE, Norway, Switzerland) will be holding their meetings later this week as well.
Some traders may be wondering about a so-called Santa rally. Citi's quant strategists were quoted the other day claiming that "the Santa rally has not delivered when the returns of the first 10 months of the year are negative." Other statistics suggest that Santa rallies are less likely (though still sometimes occur) during bear-market years. Other recent charts shared publicly have also shown that bear markets show lower probabilities of a Santa rally. This does not mean the Santa rally will not occur, it just means that the odds are lower. Much will depend on what Fed Chair Powell says tomorrow and what the dot plot shows.
In any event, price action in SPX today was weak. A failed breakout does not inspire confidence that a new uptrend is forming. While price can do all sorts of unexpected things as it has all year long, it suggests more downside ahead despite better than expected inflation readings today. Price may still reach $4150 before the next downward move gets underway.
The performance of technology today supports the bearish case in SPX (and NDX). Technology is the largest weighting in both major US indices. But this sector also showed a failed breakout when considering the sector on an equal-weighted basis. US markets are unlikely to rally back to all-time highs when technology cannot change its downtrend structure.
Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakout in Equal-Weighted Technology Sector
Negative divergence has arisen on the daily SPX charts with an RSI indicator for momentum readings. This should be monitored in days to come if a higher high than today's high is made. A higher high could negate the divergence, but a marginal new high (up to SPX 4120-4150) may not erase the divergence.
Supplementary Chart B: RSI Negative Divergence
Lastly, while some debate exists whether VIX may be subject to technical analysis, it can be helpful to pay attention to the trends and levels in the VIX at least. Today, VIX also showed a failed breakout to the downside below the range over the past week. In other words, VIX broke below the key trading range of 22.06 - 23.28 as markets ripped higher this morning. But interestingly, that breakdown ended up failing with price recovering back into the range.
Supplementary Chart C: VIX Intraday Chart with Failed Breakout and Failed Breakdown from Multi-Day Trading Range
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Bitcoin, Merry Christmas!If we take a look at the last weekly candle on the weekly chart, we can clearly see a gravestone doji / shooting star.
Also, we can see a failing wedge pattern. That's great!
Merry Christmas, Bitcoin!
DOGE - Extremely bearish pattern, buy/long here!
Doge looks very bearish, but this coin is definitely stronger than others. In this analysis, I will tell you where to buy DOGE for a short-term trade!
Doge is not going anywhere; this coin will survive even the most hard-core crash, together with Litecoin and Monero. These first-generation altcoins are solid.
Unfortunately, the chart is printing a descending triangle, which is not bullish. There is a lot of liquidity below the triangle, so the market wants all orders.
I am buying doge exactly at 0.06112 for a short-term profit. I will trade it on the futures market, of course, but you can do it on the spot market as well. Don't forget to set your orders!
From the Elliott Wave perspective, the previous uptrend looks like a 3-wave ABC corrective structure. Not the best sign.
I remember before everyone was buying DOGE like crazy, and now everyone is at a loss. The crypto winter is real; nothing is bullish pretty much. The only way to make money is to trade futures.
I post trade setups privately. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing.
Why buy doge at 0.06112? because it's the last high-volume node on the volume profile and also because we have an ascending trendline, which should work well together. What's more it's the start of the massive gap.
The 200-day moving average has been tested three times, and it's just too much. It looks like buyers are running out of steam.
There are 2 most likely scenarios. The first is that we will spend more time in this triangle. The second is that we will breakdown very soon.
Thank you!
GOING Long in CADJPY Trading StrategyBullish Indications
1. Tweezer Bottom and 3 White Soldiers
2. Tested Strong Support
3. Bullish AB=CD Pattern
4. Bearish Trend is Mature Enough
5. Need to Break Resistance Upper Trend Line
6. Found a very strong bullish divergence on 1D
7. Falling Wedge
8. 11 out of 16 times remain bullish
Bearish Indications
1. Lower highs and Lows
2. If it breaks support then we can enter
Seasonal Data 2006-2021
Dec-06 => Green
Dec-07 => Green
Dec-08 => Red
Dec-09 => Green
Dec-10 => Green
Dec-11 => Red
Dec-12 => Green
Dec-13 => Green
Dec-14 =>Red
Dec-15 => Red
Dec-16 => Green
Dec-17 => Green
Dec-18 => Red
Dec-19 => Green
Dec-20 => Green
Dec-21 => Green
EURUSD - Massive 22% crash to 0.82! Lifetime opportunity!
The EURUSD is going up right now, but it looks like a dead cat bounce rally. It was a nice short-term bull market! We need to focus on the main direction of the trend, which is bearish.
I think EURUSD will go up to 1.06311, where there is an extremely strong resistance that should be a reversal point.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to short EUR/USD!Follow my calls.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we need a final impulse wave to the downside to complete a major impulse wave. Typically, wave 1 serves as strong resistance, which in this case is 1.06311.
1.06311 is a strong resistance because it is the 2020 COVID swing low + wave (1) + 0.382 FIB retracement (wave 3).
You can take profit at the previous POC of the triangle from 2000–2002 (0.88691) or at the previous swing low from 2000 (0.82311).
This is not a trade setup because there is no stop loss, expected duration, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post professional trade setups elsewhere. This is just an analysis.
I am more than happy to provide you with these analyses, so if you like it, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Tell me in the comment section what you think about EURUSD. It looks like everyone is now extremely bullish, which is definitely not a good sign! The majority is usually wrong.
Stay strong!
Bitcoin Bogdanoff - Can this pattern predict the bottom?
The Bogdanoff twins claimed they participated in helping Satoshi Nakamoto build Bitcoin. Is this true or not? Let me know in the comment section right now!
The question is, can this weekly chart's falling wedge and bullish flag predict Bitcoin's bottom? I think it's definitely possible and maybe even likely!
Bitcoin is still very weak compared to the stock market or gold. A lot of people hate Bitcoin and spit on it as well.
This is one of the possible Elliott Wave counts that can predict the bottom as well. As you can see, the previous impulse wave from 2018–2021 was pretty much a textbook wave. What traders usually do is wait for a bearish retracement to buy the DIP. In other words, they wait for the ABC correction to enter the market.
In the current situation, the ABC correction is still developing, and we need at least one more huge swing low to complete this pattern. At this moment, it looks like an impulse wave and we don't want to buy it.
The 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave, as well as the start of the POC on the volume profile, make 10 300 USD a strong support.I would not be surprised if the market takes liquidity below the previous swing low of 9825 USD.
I really want a bull market because everyone in crypto is toxic, and of course I don't like it. I like it when the majority of people are happy. Also, I want to open an investment position on bitcoin, but not now.
Maybe the bottom is in and we will go up from here, but I doubt it. The likelihood is now around 25%.I am waiting for the main yellow trendline to be broken before I can change the probability to 70%.
If you disagree with me, let me know in the comment section why. I look forward to your comments!
For more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Bitcoin + Crypton (CRP) - This hidden GEM will 100x!
Crypton (CRPUSD) is a hidden GEM with a 100x profit potential. I recommend buying this coin before it's listed on exchanges!
The current rank is only #895 on coinmarketcap; that's why there is a huge opportunity for growth!
This coin is extremely powerful, not like others. Focus on low-cap coins with great potential.
After purchasing this coin, it is important that you inform your friends and others about it so that the price rises and the opportunity for massive gains increases rapidly.
Crypton (CRPUSD) chart: The coin is holding its value extremely well during this massive bear market. The technical analysis is very strong!
----------------------------------------
Coin: Crypton - CRPUSD
Potential profit: 100x (10,000%)
CoinMarketCap rank: #895
Crypton current price: 0.64 USD
Market cap: 4,736,720 USD
Volume in 24 hours: 222,977 USD
----------------------------------------
What is CRYPTON?
Crypton (CRPUSD) is the monetary unit and digital currency of the Utopia P2P ecosystem. It is a decentralized cryptocurrency where transactions are instant, irreversible, and completely untraceable. When Cryptons are sent, the Peer-to-Peer network of Utopia confirms the transaction immediately, without delay. There is no centralized, or decentralized, authority capable of reversing a transaction on the Utopia network. uWallet balances of Cryptons cannot be seized or even identified by any authority. Crypton transactions are completely anonymous and cannot be tracked on the blockchain. Only the sender and receiver have any record of a transaction. Newly mined Cryptons are distributed every 15min block to nodes helping to maintain the network which meet the minimum requirements.
What is UTOPIA?
Utopia is an ecosystem designed to protect the privacy of interactions and to preserve the security and confidentiality of each participant's personal data. The network went live on November 18, 2019, and is supported by the people who use it, based on Peer-to-Peer (P2P) technology. With no central server involved in data transmission or storage, it has no single point of failure and is truly decentralized. Each node, including your Utopia client, transmits network data using secure Curve25519 high-speed elliptic curve cryptography. The data transmitted cannot be intercepted by any third-party, only the recipient is able to read it. All personal account data is stored on a Utopia user's local device in an encrypted file using 256-bit-AES encryption. Utopia enables users to bypass online censorship and firewalls, allowing them to freely communicate and interact with whomever they want, whenever they want. Users can privately send instant text and voice messages, transfer files, play games and create censorship-resistant group chats, channels, and websites, as well as make and accept payments denominated in Utopia's fully integrated digital currency, Crypton.
-For more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow", right now!
Bitcoin - A new Twitter coin! Elon Musk, Lightning Network!
Bitcoin is still very bearish because the current price is below the main trendline and below the swing low from June 2022. I am not buying bitcoin at this moment because I feel like it is too risky to catch the bottom like this.
But if Bitcoin breaks above 21,480 USD, then I will do more research about the stock market and gold , and I may open an investment position with a target of around 150,000 USD. I would rather buy bitcoin at a price above 21,480 USD than at the current price of 17,000 USD. I don't know what you think; let me know in the comment section!
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, there are two possible scenarios. The first is that the huge dump was only a WXYXZ tripple zigzag correction, which is unusual but can be true. The second scenario is that this was a strong impulse wave, or the fifth wave may still be in progress. This would be very bearish , and Bitcoin could drop to 6,000 USD.
On the chart, you can see strong levels on the road to a new all-time high. Expect a strong reaction here. Use these strong levels for your trading strategy.
I am not interested in Bitcoin at this moment, but I do trade bitcoin intraday. This is my opinion on Bitcoin; I hope you like it!
Now let's take a look at the Twitter coin.
For more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow", right now!
Twitter coin - LOGO - Users could buy coffee and checkout at Starbucks, or send remittances across the world using just their Twitter app.
What Does A Twitter Coin Mean for Dogecoin And Bitcoin?
-The crypto community is currently speculating what the alleged revelation could mean for Musk’s favorite coin, Dogecoin (DOGE) but also Bitcoin . At first glance, a proprietary coin from Twitter is bad for DOGE and also BTC , as it would eliminate the need to integrate both cryptocurrencies.
-However, the leak of the API could indicate that Musk is not just focusing on one cryptocurrency, but multiple. DOGE and Bitcoin could thus be complementary to the Twitter Coin. Thus, the crypto industry as a whole could benefit from a crypto wallet integration from Twitter .
-Elon Musk had shared as recently as Nov. 27 his intention for digital payments to be integrated into what he calls Twitter 2.0 – “The Everything App.”
-Although Musk did not mention Dogecoin in his tweet, the DOGE price skyrocketed. The community apparently speculated that DOGE was part of Musk’s crypto plans for Twitter .
-Moreover, rumors about Twitter’s crypto wallet plans surfaced already back in October after Wong speculated in an Oct. 27 tweet that the company had already begun work on a wallet prototype.
Does Musk Have Lightning Network On His Radar?
-Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, commented a few days ago that Twitter could be become a payment app by adopting Bitcoin .
-Mallers said that by adopting the Lightning Network, Twitter can be a payments business and has the “opportunity to build payment experiences which traditional Twitter can’t.”
-“Because they cannot get into the business of debt and all the regulatory and fixed costs. Chase has that business on lock and now that is not a requirement anymore,” Maller continued.
SPX's Bear Rally May Tag Resistance Zone at 4100-4143Primary Chart: Down Trendline and Anchored VWAP from All-Time Highs, Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Summary of Key Points:
1. SPX remains in a countertrend rally (an uptrend on shorter time frames) from the October 13, 2022 lows. See the parallel channel on the Primary Chart. The post-FOMC selloff found support right at the base of this channel.
2. A pullback and consolidation should be expected, though it's not necessarily a given. Though prices moved in almost a straight line late last week, that is not the norm and even with that nearly straight line, prices never move in a straight line on higher time frames. If a pullback / consolidation occurs, it would be in the blue box area shown on the Primary Chart.
3. SquishTrade will only consider targets above 4000 if SPX can successfully reclaim 4000 with a daily close above, i.e., 4000 works as as a condition precedent to 4100-4143.
4. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties.
5. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun.
SPX's bear rally may continue higher, with pullbacks / consolidations of course, to reach 4100-4143. Why is it still being called a bear rally? Some may wonder whether the lows are in after last week's powerful rally on incredibly strong breadth on November 10, 2022, with follow through on Friday, November 11, 2022. Social media is filled with calls for markets to move back to all-time highs given markets uncanny ability to "sniff out" the final stages of inflation and a return to normalcy with a Fed pivot not long afterwards. Sound too good to be true? Maybe it is.
The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. The probabilities suggest the market heads lower at some point once the extreme emotions surrounding the "relief rally" (likely fueled by a nice mix of FOMO, algos and short-covering) have faded and price exhausts to the upside. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun.
SquishTrade's analysis suggests the bear rally should continue at least another week, perhaps two. Sure, a pullback is likely after the run up last week to consolidate those excessive gains, but the countertrend rally is likely to continue. Please interpret this analysis correctly—SquishTrade is labeling this a countertrend rally until the larger trend structure is definitively broken. SquishTrade is not long-term bullish or calling for a new uptrend at the primary degree. Comments asking why the view has flipped are misplaced: the long-term and even intermediate-term view has not flipped as every downtrend by definition includes both highs and lows in an ebb and flow progressing downward over time.
At this stage, the downtrend at the primary degree remains intact. Note the downward trendline in dark blue from the all-time highs. Note the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs in January 2022. These represent actual price data, not opinions. The structure remains down at the primary degree no matter what macro chatter is out there. Tom Lee, a sort of permabull who correctly called the 2-year rally to SPX 4800 off the Covid lows is still calling for SPX 5100 by year end, and thinks that this rally leg can reach 4400. Other macro and technical analysts have said the lows are in and SPX is rallying having sensed the final stages of inflation. Of course, for every bull, there is an equally persuasive bear. SquishTrade believes all that information is contained in the technicals, so why argue the data when it may not matter in the end? Markets will do whatever they want. If markets break the downtrend, then the bulls are right. If they continue the downtrend, the bears are right. Squish remains a bear until the technicals on the larger timeframes can change.
Consider two supplementary charts. First is the key anchored VWAPs from major pivots in this bear market. Note the VWAPs from the mid-August 2022 high, the mid-June 2022 low, the mid-October 2022 low. Those VWAPs are converging and beginning to rise, suggesting a strong support zone from 3800-$3879. If this support breaks along with the parallel channel support (the up TL from October 13, 2022), then all bets are off. If this support holds, then watch for a move to the targets identified above.
Supplementary Chart A: Anchored VWAPs
Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis
Note the confluence of key levels in the Fibonacci price analysis around 4100 and just above that level. These also coincide with the all-time high anchored VWAP currently at 4114.25 and the down trendline from the all-time highs as well, at least where that trendline appears in the next couple weeks.
As to the Fibonacci time analysis, consider that since the .50 Fibonacci time level didn't produce a meaningful turn lower, perhaps the .618 Fib level will. Full disclosure: the time analysis is the most speculative and unreliable portion of this post, so if it works out well, that would come as a surprise to ST.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SPY: Don't Fight the Rally, Downtrends Include Highs TooPrimary Chart: Downward Trendline from All-Time High, Various Anchored VWAPs and Fibonacci Levels
Rallies in Downtrends Are Part of the Process
Don't fight the rally in AMEX:SPY , the ETF tracking the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ). Bear rallies are part of every downtrend. Many are debating whether equity markets have put in a lasting bottom in mid-October 2022. Although this seems unlikely given the macroeconomic headwinds and interest-rate environment, no one really knows the answer to these questions.
SquishTrade favors the continuation of trends, especially at the larger-degrees of trend, rather than reversal. So at the primary degree of trend, for example, from the all-time high, it makes sense to favor the odds that such downtrend will continue despite a reversal of trends at smaller degrees of trend (such as the uptrend shown on short-term time frames such as intraday charts and perhaps even the daily chart). But favoring the continuation merely recognizes the probability that the downtrend will resume at some point—and acknowledges that no certainty exists about whether a lasting bottom / major trend reversal has occurred. In short, no one knows what comes next. So we fall back on what is more probable and what is less probable.
It's important to remember that downtrends include both highs and lows. A downtrend is defined by lower highs and lower lows, and on the daily chart and weekly chart since the all-time highs in January 2022, higher highs and higher lows appear. Sometimes, we traders sometimes wish that price would just move smoothly downward in more or less a straight line. But this does not happen. At each lower high in this current downtrend—March 2022, June 2022, and August 2022—major rallies led to actual market highs, albeit lower ones than previously.
So don't fight the highs as they are part of every downtrend process. Even if one's macro research and technical analysis continues to support a bearish case, and the bearish case may end up prevailing in the larger degree of trend, it remains prudent to avoid fighting the rallies. This is a lesson the author has learned the hard way. Bear market rallies are powerful and sharp, often defying all logic. A prime example occurred last week, when major FAANG stocks like META, GOOGL and AMZN took major hits to the downside but indices remain stable and even rallied hard at the end of the week. Irrational? Maybe. But it's what the market wanted to do, so it's best to flow with it. And the rallies are part of the downtrend process, and in fact, they can provide better shorting opportunities than shorting at the lows expecting the downtrend to move in a straight line.
Price Has Moved into a Key Price Zone from $380 to $413 SPY
For the next couple of weeks into mid-November 2022, the following technical levels and patterns remain relevant.
1. SPY appears to have moved back into a critical price zone between $380 and $413—corresponding approximately to $3800 to $4146 on SPX. Support for this range lies at $380, which can be found from both price support over the past several months as well as Fibonacci analysis:
Notice on the Primary Chart how price has now moved back above a longer-term Fibonacci retracement level at $380, the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from Covid 2020 lows to January 2022 highs). This is now major support, having been resistance in prior weeks.
Another key Fibonacci retracement lies at $380.05, which is the .382 retracement of the recent decline from August 16 to October 13, 2022.
This $380 level is therefore an area of strong support going into next week. Within the next couple of days, the key 21-day EMA should also move right up to about $380 (though it lies at $375.13 currently).
The yellow rectangle on the Primary Chart shows how this crucial area has served as important support and resistance—as well as a consolidation zone—for many weeks within this downtrend. Price bounced hard off this zone in late February and mid-March 2022. Price chopped in this zone in May and early June 2022, with a whipsaw break below it in mid-June 2022 that ultimately ended with price working its way back into the zone in July 2022. A whipsaw breakout above this zone occurred in August 2022, and this also failed with price falling back into the zone. Finally, in September and October 2022, price broke decisively below this zone. But now it has pushed its way back into it with another sharp rally over just two weeks (about 12 trading sessions). In short, this zone remains a very important area and magnet for SPY.
2. This crucial zone from $380 to $413 is reinforced and confirmed by the key anchored VWAPs, shown more distinctly on the supplementary chart below. The dark blue VWAP at $413 is anchored to the all-time high at January 4, 2022. A bunch of key short-term and long-term VWAPs run near the lower edge of this $380-$413 zone. These include VWAPs anchored to (i) the March 2020 Covid low (pink) at $385, (ii) the mid-August 2022 high (orange) at $382, and (iii) the mid-June 2022 low (green) at $386. On Friday, October 28, 2022, price reclaimed all these VWAPs except for the dark blue VWAP from the all-time high which remains at $413, at the top of this key zone.
Supplementary Chart A: Key Anchored VWAPs
3. The upper edge of this key zone (yellow rectangle's upper boundary) shows confluence with key Fibonacci levels, trendlines and the January 2022 VWAP. The key resistance ranges from $399 to $415. The Primary Chart shows two Fibonacci levels at $399 ($400) and two more Fibonacci levels at $413. The downward trendline from the all-time high lies right in this area as well, and because it slopes downward, it covers most of the zone. The VWAP anchored to January 4, 2022, lies at $413. Note that two of the Fibonacci levels at $399 and $413 were derived by projecting the rally in March 2022 from the low in October 2022, as the rallies (so far) appear to be somewhat similar. SquishTrade is watching to determine whether the present rally off October 13 lows will be roughly symmetrical to the March 2022 rally.
4. The target range for this rally appears to range from $399 to $413. See the yellow circle on the supplementary chart below, where two arrows each point to a confluence of levels, one at $399/$400 and the other at $413-$415. As discussed, these two upside targets are defined by Fibonacci, the YTD down trendline, and a variety of relevant VWAPs discussed in paragraph 2.
Supplementary Chart B: Target Zone for the Present Rally
The Current Rally Should Be Respected until the Primary Trend Resumes Lower
As mentioned, the trend the still remains in effect at the primary degree of trend (the trend YTD over the past 10 months). So this larger-degree trend is favored and remains the higher probability price path—but until it resumes lower, the rally should be respected.
Although the author remains bearish at the primary degree of trend, he acknowledges that markets can do whatever they want, and no one really knows with certainty what happens next. Our job as traders remains to flow flexibly with what the market is doing at all levels of trend, watching how price responds to each level. And on the shorter timeframes and smaller degrees of trend, price is bullish until markets confirm that the rally is done.
Lastly, here are some key technicals to watch to determine whether the multi-week rally remains in effect:
The anchored VWAP from the October 13, 2022 low (shown in black on the Primary Chart).
The parallel channel containing price since October 13, 2022 lows . Note that a break of this channel does not mean that the downtrend has resumed immediately, but it weakens the case for the strength of the current rally and adds "probability" to the resumption of the downtrend depending on how price responds to the key resistance levels).
The 8-day and 5-day EMA's slope and price relative to those EMAs (above / below) . Currently, they are sloped upward with price holding well above them. This supports the rally.
Price relative to the key $380 level , which is the lower level of the key price zone discussed above (yellow rectangle on Primary Chart). This level represents a line in the sand. Decisive breaks below it can quickly lead to lower prices.
Price relative to the upper and lower VWAPs coinciding with the key price zone of $380 to $413 , as shown on Supplementary Chart A.
Price response to the down trendline from all-time highs in January 2022 and the VWAP anchored to that point .
VIX's decline from highs in late September and early October 2022.
Price response after the FOMC meeting next week , though use caution—the first move, and sometimes the first and second moves, after the FOMC presser tend to be whipsaws (false moves).
It's also important to note that price rallied hard last week. Those gains would seem likely to be consolidated soon. Price reached the 50% retracement of the August 16-October 13 decline at about $390 ($389.92), which corresponds to about $3908 on SPX. Even if price does rally further to the target zone identified, such a key resistance level as this $389-$390 level likely would repel price at the first contact.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
