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Bearish Trend Line

Price Exhaustion Just Before NVDA's Earnings ReportPrimary Chart: Trendlines, VWAPs and Fibonacci Levels Summary: 1. NVDA's bear rally shows signs of exhaustion by breakout to the upside out of its parallel channel. 2. Seasonality remains bullish so that could cause more unexpected moves to the upside before lower. 3. In the intermediate to long term, NVDA likely heads lower. The bear could resume this week. Or it could resume in a few weeks or a month or two. No need to guess, just follow price. 4. Earnings are risky binary events, and price can whipsaw or even move further than the expected move. As a hypothetical example, consider the price path shown on the primary chart, which should not be read as a forecast but a possibility around earnings. 5. In a prior post from mid-September 2022, SquishTrade showed a chart that revealed a path to about $83 for NVDA in the longer term. That target remains viable. That won't happen in a straight line and it likely won't happen in a day or a week. That chart is shown below: This chart is found in the updates to ST's September 12 post linked here: NVDA's countertrend price move shows signs of exhaustion just before earnings reports after market close. NVDA could react in either direction similar to FAANG and other tech stocks' reactions last month. Some tech stocks surprised to the upside with a failure soon afterwards (AAPL), while others fell further than expected (AMZN, GOOGL, META). On November 13 (Sunday), a prior NVDA post was updated with some countertrend targets after the rally that had begun on Thursday, November 10 (post CPI data report in the US). That update can be found here . One of those targets has been reached—see the larger yellow circle on the chart above. That was the major resistance zone of $165-$174 around the Covid-low VWAP and the .786 Fibonacci retracement. While this author provides technical analysis generally, leaving all decisions about trading to each trader's own system and rules, he avoids trading just before earnings. Most traders would be wise to do the same unless they have a strategy or edge specifically for those types of binary events. Some traders choose to trade volatility strategies around earnings—perhaps buying vol a few weeks before and selling it just before earnings, or selling vol just before earnings and closing thereafter. But those are difficult to implement and manage, though some experts appear to have viable strategies for this. Beware the whipsaw move post earnings as well (as happened with AAPL around earnings in late October 2022), a pump and then a dump or a dump and then a pump followed by another dump. The Primary Chart shows a hypothetical example of such a whipsaw—please do not interpret the price path as a forecast, though it could by some luck work out that way. The price path is a hypothetical illustration showing what sorts of moves could occur post earnings. Lastly, please note that although this post is designated as "short," that is the long-term view. The short-term view remains bullish until price reverses. SquishTrade prefers not to fight bear rallies but allow them to unfold until their natural ending. Finding that bear rally top for a good short is everyone's dream, though it's not particularly realistic. But no need to do so—the money can be made more consistently by catching a good piece of the next trend move rather than trying to squeeze every last penny from top to bottom (or bottom to top), which often and inevitably results in capital loss. Thanks for reading. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SquishTrade
15
NVDA: Early Bears Punished by Devious WhipsawPrimary Chart: Two Downward Trendlines, Fibonacci Levels, Major Resistance Zone and Anchored VWAP from October 13 Low Early bears jumping in to short NVDA last week were punished when NVDA's apparent breakdown failed. NVDA broke decisively below key Fibonacci support as well as an upward TL off the YTD lows from mid-October 2022. But then this breakdown utterly failed with price moving right back up above the TL and into the parallel channel off the YTD lows. Price also reclaimed that key Fibonacci level at $134.85 (the .382 retracement shown as a purple line). Now price remains squarely within the parallel channel, but on Friday last week, it rallied smack into resistance at the August 4, 2022, VWAP (orange). This VWAP lies at $141.78. Price may pull back from this level a bit even if later it wants to push a bit higher before starting the next leg downward. SquishTrade monitors the $145.87 to $150.67 range as a key resistance level where NVDA's bear rally could ultimately fail. No one can predict the future, so it's important to stay open minded to probabilities rather than remaining married to a viewpoint such as a rigid bearish or bullish argument. Markets love to destroy well-supported but overly rigid viewpoints. In short, the probability of the downtrend resuming continues to increase as NVDA rises higher. The downtrend line and pink resistance zone ($145-$151) marks a key spot where the probabilities for a downward move seem better as long as risk is managed with with a tight stop above this key level. SquishTrade recommends continuing to watch DXY and interest rates as this market remains challenging and tricky. A more conservative approach may be to wait for confirmation rather than getting bearish right at major resistance. The reason for this approach is that one never knows when a bear rally will end, and markets love to whipsaw before starting their real trend move, and this is true especially this year. Some may see a break above the down TL from March 29, 2022 (light blue TL). The linear chart below shows this TL as having been violated to the upside. But keep in mind that the Primary Chart which is logarithmic shows that this TL has not been touched yet since August 2022. The chart below shows the linear chart's version of the TL break. But on both linear and log charts, the longer-term down TL (gold) has not been broken, and that lies significantly overhead. Supplementary Chart: Linear Chart Showing TL Break SquishTrade has been watching NVDA for a short setup, and will continue to monitor how price responds to some key resistance levels. SquishTrade prefers not to consider shorts before earnings. Sure, this may result in missing the move as with AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT in recent weeks. But it also may mean missing the complete annihilation of a position as with bears on AAPL or bulls on GOOGL and AMZN around earnings reports in recent days. And with CPI in the US being released this week (November 10, 2022)—and CPI reports have almost started becoming like FOMC days in terms of volatility in equity markets—and with midterm elections on Tuesday, markets could wipe out a fair number of poorly positioned bears and bulls alike this week. Caution is recommended. Wait for the best setups, the right setups for your trading strategy and approach. And remember, there will always be more setups, so don't let FOMO cloud judgment. Bears can get the same degree of FOMO as the most optimistic bulls. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SquishTrade
15
Ethereum - Macro outlook | -62% next month! After the merge, the price of ETH is rapidly going down. It's basically a free fall right now. It was clearly a sell-the-news event.  I am very bearish until we break the major trendline that you can see on the chart. There is absolutely no reason to buy ETH at this moment.  On the daily chart, we can spot a descending parallel channel that is very well respected with all trendlines inside. These trendlines can be useful for short-term trades. I believe there is a possibility of touching the downward trendline in the future.  The market never goes in a straight line; we always have waves during the trend and that's why Elliott Waves are the best indicator to understand where we currently are in the market structure. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we are in the final 5h wave of this particular market structure, which can be deadly indeed. But if I am right and we will go down, then do not expect ETH to go to new all-time highs soon. So prepare your shorts, because that's the only way you can profit in this bearish market. Maybe the ETHBTC pair is also starting a new macro downtrend, so basically ETH will fall off the cliff. The situation for ETH is horrendous. It's really better to switch to BNB if you really want to hold some coins. Or just stay in USDT and buy after the crash. I do not expect any tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find the most bearish altcoins in the related section down below. Serum (SRM) looks juicy for shorting on the futures market. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
219
✅Bitcoin - The bottom is in! The temporary bottom on Bitcoin is in! Now we are looking for a bullish retracement. I think we will go lower, to 3K-10K, in the next few years, but not now! On the chart, you can see the strongest resistance on the way up. It's hard to say which one will be the reversal point. Do you think this Bitcoin crash was natural or was it caused by some strong entity? Let me know what you think in the comment section. I am happy to read your comments! I think the most probable scenario for Bitcoin is to reach the blue trendline, or 0.618 FIB, at this moment. The crypto market is a joke, and all investors are getting rekt pretty much all the time, and it's going to be even worse. It's not easy to choose the right coins; only about 5% of them are powerful. The only reliable investment is BNB, let's be honest! At least it's holding its value and going up a little bit. This week was extreme for Crypto, pretty much very sad, but it is how it is, and we need to adapt! The upcoming uptrend will be a countertrend. That means it should be very fast, and we can finally experience a massive green dildo. DXY is crashing and EURUSD/GOLD is pumping, which is also a good sign for this weak crypto market. In my opinion, a relief rally is very likely right now! For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"! On the 1h chart, we can spot a strong impulse wave, which is a sign of strength!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
89
BTC's Logarithmic TL vs. Linear TL: Vote Now!Primary Chart: BTC's Logarithmic Trendline from the All-Time High to the Present Date BTCUSD's current down trendline reflecting the primary trend can be drawn on either a logarithmic or linear chart. Both charts are used in technical analysis. Logarithmic charts tend to be better at conveying accurate proportions of price action on charts covering a lengthy period of time and a broad span of price action. In the case of BTC, why does it matter? Look at the down trendline drawn on a linear chart (Supplementary Chart below) connecting the same all-time high in November 2021 and the March 28-April 5, 2022 peaks. Notice the breakout? Supplementary Chart: BTC's Linear Trendline from the All-Time High to Present Date Other evidence suggests that the downtrend is not over yet and new lows are likely. But the choppy and trap-filled price action since June 2022 has made it difficult for any directional traders long or short. Care to vote in the comments? It's probably true that each vote reflects the conclusions each of us has reached, and our general market expectations. My vote is that the logarithmic chart is the better TL. But my posts have remained fairly bearish this year, so this may reflect my underlying expectation that no new uptrend is being established in crypto assets despite any sharp bear rallies in the near term. Here are some of the technical reasons (in prior posts linked below) for remaining bearish. But for each of these reasons, there may be other keen technical or fundamental arguments being made for why the lows are very near. Bearish arguments in prior posts: Have a great trading week! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
19
✅Bitcoin - Secret pattern no one is talking about! Not 13,000 USDT, not 12,000 USDT, but I think 10,000 USDT or 9,500 USDT can be the bottom for Bitcoin, and this is a very optimistic scenario! As you can see, the bears yesterday successfully broke the key market structure that had held for almost 6 months. Bitcoin is now in serious trouble, and 3,000 USDT is now at play, believe it or not. A 5-year or 10-year bear market (crypto winter) is also possible. Maybe the 17k that was hit yesterday was a temporary bottom; it's possible, but I don't think so. The temporary bottom will be around 14k, when everyone will be buying, and we will have a massive false uptrend. The chart is printing a falling wedge, but this wedge is incomplete, and we need much more time to spend on this pattern. From the Elliott Wave perspective, an impulse wave was printed yesterday, which is a disaster, that's for sure. A support of 10,000 USDT is very strong. I expect a significant reaction here because it is the 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave + the previous head and shoulders neckline. A lot of big players will get liquidated during an upcoming crash, like LUNA, FTT, and so on. The only good investment is BNB, let's be honest! At least it's holding its value. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
67
DOGE - To the moon! Huge bull flag | +5000% Doge is absolutely ready for a massive impulsive wave to the upside on the macro scale! The chart is printing an impressive bullish flag on the weekly chart with an ABC ZigZag structure, which is even better. As you know, I am very bullish on Bitcoin for the upcoming year 2023 and the BTC dominance chart indicates a juicy alt season! As per my Elliott Wave analysis on the macro scale, we have finished a corrective ABC wave 4, and we are currently starting a final impulsive wave 5. We don't really know what price DOGE can reach, but I expect the 0.618 FIB or the 0.764 FIB extension from Wave 3 -> Wave 4. The average transaction fee on DOGE is currently 0.04 USD and the confirmation time is below 1 minute. I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below. For more ideas, please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
115
Bitcoin - Drop to 13 000 USDT! But first a relief uptrend!🟡 The situation for Bitcoin is terrible. There is nothing bullish at this moment. We are below the 200 weekly moving average and the main trendline from 2013 has been destroyed by the bears recently. The bulls are weak, and the only trump that they have is the 200 weekly moving average on the TOTAL crypto market cap chart, because the price is above this level. On the 4h chart we have a descending parallel channel that is well respected, so there is a possibility for another drop down in the immediate short term. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, an impulse wave has been printed on the chart, and this is absolutely devastating for the bulls. That's not what you want to see. Anyways, I think this impulse wave is done or almost done and we should go up for an ABC correction above the previous triangle to wipe out late shorts on the futures. Then it looks like we will continue lower to 13 000 USDT, which would be a great zone for a long position back above 25 000 USDT. However, I don't think we will hit the all-time high in the next few years. It looks like the bubble has popped and we are in the first real bear market in the history of Bitcoin. The first bull cycle from 2009 - 2021 has ended and we are in the first bear cycle. We don't know how long this bear cycle is going to last. For more analysis hit "Like" and "Follow"!
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
239
Bitcoin - You haven't seen this before! (secret) You haven't seen this inverse head and shoulders pattern before! The price of bitcoin is going sideways, so I had to do more research and find something new.  30400 USDT is a profit target for the Head and Shoulders pattern, which is strong resistance. It's the measurement target of the HaS + previous symmetrical triangle point of control (POC). The 5–10-year bear market is not confirmed yet, so do not fall for it! First, the bears need to break the 17500 USDT level to confirm this scenario.  The stock market is crashing like crazy, but Bitcoin is extremely durable. So good, right? Or so bad, if you are in a short position.  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we have started the uptrend with an impulsive structure (9 waves), which is definitely a great sign, because 5-9-13-17 waves are impulsive, while 3-7-11-15 are corrective structures. An ABC correction of the previous impulse has also been completed successfully.  Is this inverse head and shoulders pattern the last hope for the bulls? I think so. Is this the last time we can purchase bitcoin for less than $20,000 USDT? Not sci-fi.  Is a 5–10 year crypto winter possible for the crypto market? If we break below the 17500 USDT level, then yes. Is it possible to get 3000 USDT per bitcoin? If we break below the 17500 USDT level, then it's actually very possible.  Is Bitcoin a Ponzi? Yes! I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
131
0% Inflation very soon?United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022 chart ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why do I think inflation will go down to 0%? Inflation is currently at the main trendline (established in 1920). This is a very strong resistance, and as a general rule, do not short a support or long a resistance. In other words, you don't want to speculate on inflation increasing when inflation is at its critical point. FED cares about their charts, and they also want the charts to look great. That's why they will push inflation down. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why the Inflation Rate Matter? The inflation rate demonstrates the health of a country's economy. It is a measurement tool used by a country's central bank, economists, and government officials to gauge whether action is needed to keep an economy healthy. That's when businesses are producing, consumers are spending, and supply and demand are as close to equilibrium as possible. A healthy rate of inflation is good for both consumers and businesses. During deflation, consumers hold on to their cash because the goods will be cheaper tomorrow. Businesses lose money, cutting costs by reducing pay or employment. That happened during the subprime housing crisis. In galloping inflation, consumers spend now before prices rise tomorrow. That artificially increases demand. Businesses raise prices because they can, as inflation spirals out of control. When inflation is steady, at around 2%, the economy is more or less as stable as it can get. Consumers are buying what businesses are selling. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How is inflation measured? There are several ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the consumer price index. The CPI aggregates price data from 23,000 businesses and 80,000 consumer goods to determine how much prices have changed in a given period of time. If the CPI rises by 3% year over year, for example, then the inflation rate is 3%. The Fed, on the other hand, relies on the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This index gives more weight to items such as healthcare costs. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How do you hedge against inflation? Because inflation causes money to lose value over time, hedging against it is an important part of any sound investing strategy. Investors use a diversified portfolio with a variety of asset types to offset inflation and ensure that the overall growth of their portfolio outpaces it. ---------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR - INFLATION RATE YOY - FED FUNDS RATE - BUSINESS CYCLE (GDP GROWTH) - EVENTS AFFECTING INFLATION 1929 0.6% NA August peak Market crash 1930 -6.4% NA Contraction (-8.5%) Smoot-Hawley 1931 -9.3% NA Contraction (-6.4%) Dust Bowl 1932 -10.3% NA Contraction (-12.9%) Hoover tax hikes 1933 0.8% NA Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) FDR's New Deal 1934 1.5% NA Expansion (10.8%) U.S. debt rose 1935 3.0% NA Expansion (8.9%) Social Security 1936 1.4% NA Expansion (12.9%) FDR tax hikes 1937 2.9% NA Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) Depression resumes 1938 -2.8% NA Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) Depression ended 1939 0.0% NA Expansion (8.0% Dust Bowl ended 1940 0.7% NA Expansion (8.8%) Defense increased 1941 9.9% NA Expansion (17.7%) Pearl Harbor 1942 9.0% NA Expansion (18.9%) Defense spending 1943 3.0% NA Expansion (17.0%) Defense spending 1944 2.3% NA Expansion (8.0%) Bretton Woods 1945 2.2% NA Feb. peak, Oct. trough (-1.0%) Truman ended WWII 1946 18.1% NA Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts 1947 8.8% NA Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending 1948 3.0% NA Nov. peak (4.1%) 1949 -2.1% NA Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO 1950 5.9% NA Expansion (8.7%) Korean War 1951 6.0% NA Expansion (8.0%) 1952 0.8% NA Expansion (4.1%) 1953 0.7% NA July peak (4.7%) Eisenhower ended Korean War 1954 -0.7% 1.25% May trough (-0.6%) Dow returned to 1929 high 1955 0.4% 2.50% Expansion (7.1%) 1956 3.0% 3.00% Expansion (2.1%) 1957 2.9% 3.00% Aug. peak (2.1%) Recession 1958 1.8% 2.50% April trough (-0.7%) Recession ended 1959 1.7% 4.00% Expansion (6.9%) Fed raised rates 1960 1.4% 2.00% April peak (2.6%) Recession 1961 0.7% 2.25% Feb. trough (2.6%) JFK's deficit spending ended recession 1962 1.3% 3.00% Expansion (6.1%) 1963 1.6% 3.5% Expansion (4.4%) 1964 1.0% 3.75% Expansion (5.8%) LBJ Medicare, Medicaid 1965 1.9% 4.25% Expansion (6.5%) 1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War 1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing 1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office 1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession 1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls 1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation 1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard 1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate 1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high 1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%) 1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%) 1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%) 1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%) 1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession 1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut 1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended 1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending 1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%) 1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%) 1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut 1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash 1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates 1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis 1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession 1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates 1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted 1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act 1994 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.0%) 1995 2.5% 5.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1996 3.3% 5.25% Expansion (3.8%) Welfare reform 1997 1.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.4%) Fed raised rates 1998 1.6% 4.75% Expansion (4.5%) LTCM crisis 1999 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.8%) Glass-Steagall repealed 2000 3.4% 6.50% Expansion (4.1%) Tech bubble burst 2001 1.6% 1.75% March peak, Nov. trough (1.0%) Bush tax cut, 9/11 attacks 2002 2.4% 1.25% Expansion (1.7%) War on Terror 2003 1.9% 1.00% Expansion (2.9%) JGTRRA 2004 3.3% 2.25% Expansion (3.8%) 2005 3.4% 4.25% Expansion (3.5%) Katrina, Bankruptcy Act 2006 2.5% 5.25% Expansion (2.9%) 2007 4.1% 4.25% Dec peak (1.9%) Bank crisis 2008 0.1% 0.25% Contraction (-0.1%) Financial crisis 2009 2.7% 0.25% June trough (-2.5%) ARRA 2010 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (2.6%) ACA, Dodd-Frank Act 2011 3.0% 0.25% Expansion (1.6%) Debt ceiling crisis 2012 1.7% 0.25% Expansion (2.2%) 2013 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (1.8%) Government shutdown. Sequestration 2014 0.8% 0.25% Expansion (2.5%) QE ends 2015 0.7% 0.50% Expansion (3.1%) Deflation in oil and gas prices 2016 2.1% 0.75% Expansion (1.7%) 2017 2.1% 1.50% Expansion (2.3%) 2018 1.9% 2.50% Expansion (3.0%) 2019 2.3% 1.75% Expansion (2.2%) 2020 1.4% 0.25% Contraction (-3.4%) COVID-19 2021 7.0% 0.25% Expansion (5.9%) COVID-19 2022 8.3% 3.25% Contraction (-1.6%) As of Sept. 21. 2022 2023 2.7% (est.) 2.8% (est.) Expansion (2.2%) March 2022 projection
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
56
ADA - 47% CRASH | Buy here! I am very bearish on specific altcoins such as ADA, XRP, SOL, LUNC, SHIB and much more. Why? Because the charts are terrible and I don't even know why you should buy these overpriced altcoins that will never make you rich. Some gains are possible, but you have to focus on altcoins with low market caps, not these Giants. It's too late for the party. I am not saying these altcoins are bad. These coins are great, but the market cap is too high and whales want to buy them at a cheaper price.  Cardano is in a massive downtrend, basically in a free fall mode, and another 47% drop is likely in my opinion. There is pretty much nothing bullish on this chart; the bulls completely disappeared.  You can buy ADA at 0.1841, at least for a short-term bounce (150% - 300% profit). I will inform you about possible targets next year, so do not miss it and follow me! The price is printing a falling wedge pattern and a descending triangle. As you can see, the bears destroyed the triangle without any problem! From the Elliott Wave perspective, the market structure is insanely bearish and I expect 2 huge impulse waves downward to complete a major ABC correction. The bears are in power and I would not play with them at all cost. We need much more time to recover from this abyss. Look at my ideas about XRP and LUNC in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
60
Bitcoin - 2018 vs 2022 I know that bullish analysis on Bitcoin is extremely unpopular at this moment. I can feel it in the comment section of my several previous Bitcoin analysis. The most popular ideas on TradingView are extremely bearish, and the sentiment is very negative and fearful. Pretty much everyone is expecting 13k. In this case, I am not saying the crowd is wrong, because during a fifth impulse wave, the crowd might often be right. The situation is, of course, very different this time compared to 2018, but I have seen a lot of these comparison analyses on Bitcoin, so let's do it. The triangle in 2022 is really weird. It's probably not even a triangle. It looks like an inverse head and shoulders with a steep neckline or a double bottom reversal pattern. Triangles usually appear just before the end of the trend or at the end of the trend. These patterns are, of course, very tricky. There is a possibility of a last scam wick to the downside to 17,600-17,900 before the price explodes to the upside! But I hope the bulls will defend 17611 USDT because it's very important from the Elliott Wave perspective. I hope the bulls will prevent Bitcoin from falling because I don't want a 5-year bear market, I think no one wants it in the crypto community. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
154
Terra LUNC - 47% drop is in-play! Maybe there is nothing that can stop an upcoming dump on LUNC at all. The bears are really strong here and we are currently 60% down from the previous swing high. As you can see, the price is breaking down from the local descending triangle and heading downward to the abyss. Also, we have a descending parallel channel , and we can possibly touch the bottom of the channel! If you think LUNC is a great coin, then you can buy LUNC at 0.00013, which is a reasonable place to buy because there is a great confluence. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the uptrend from September 26 to October 2 was just a 2 wave corrective move. This is definitely not what you want to see as a bull. You can be sure I will also be bullish on LUNC, but first I want to see some bullish price action, and this is definitely not a bullish price action! But on the other side, this coin is a perfect opportunity for the bears to short this coin on the futures market. Look at my idea about XRP in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
50
AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations. Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar. For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected. A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards? For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing. Additional Comments and Considerations Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards. AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some. How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued. AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV: “Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.” Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by SquishTrade
6
XRP - 80% decline, be prepared! An 80% drop is not sci-fi. But at the end of the day, you can buy cheap XRP at 0.1 USDT and hold it to 589 USDT, as the Simpsons predicted.  I am very bearish on XRP because the bears are in full control and I will tell you why in this analysis.  The price is trending in a massive descending parallel channel (very bad) and the first thing we want to see is a break of the channel to think about buying XRP. XRP has been in a bear market since 2017. It has been 5 years and we didn't even hit a new all-time high during the 2020–2021 bull market.  As you can see on this chart, we have broken down out of the symmetrical triangle, which is an extremely bearish signal. You don't want to see triangles at the top of the uptrend as a bull.  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this whole structure is totally incomplete and I am missing an impulse wave dawnward. We have strong support at 0.1013 USDT, where the market should take stop losses below this swing low before continuing higher to new all-time highs.  It's very dangerous to buy XRP at this moment because this mini uptrend might already be complete.  But after all, I think XRP will experience a massive bull market, maybe in 2023-2025, to new all-time highs because it looks very solid on the monthly scale. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
58
S&P500 - What if the bottom is in? I am not saying the bottom is in, but what if the bottom is in? In this analysis, I will tell you why it is possible! Everyone is extremely bearish on the stock market. There is a record of purchasing PUT options from retail investors and usually the majority is wrong. But in this case, the majority could be right. We don't know. As you can see, we have a huge parallel channel on the daily chart, and I would love to see a breakout above the channel. But from the Elliott Wave perspective, an ABC correction (ZigZag) can be considered as completed with an extended A wave. If you are an Elliott Wave trader, you see a nice impulse wave as a C wave. If we take a look at the RSI indicator, we can see a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. This gives us hope for at least a bullish bounce to the upside. The 200 moving average is powerful on the weekly and daily chart. This MA is considered a strong support/resistance by huge institutions and hedge funds together with the 0.618 FIB retracement. Interest rates are rising, which is, of course, very bad for the stock market. I know this and that's why I am not buying stocks, because I am a trader, not an investor, even though I have bitcoins for the long term. So, has the stock market reached its bottom? I would say maybe a 30% probability. Look at my idea about Bitcoin in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
31
BTC.D - The Alt Season is around the corner! Don't miss it. The Alt Season is around the corner, I can see it on this chart! It's not a question of if it will happen, but when it will happen.  The lighting network is not supported by major exchanges because they don't want it and it's not in their business plan (as per the statement). This is, at this moment, very positive for altcoins.  It's really important to pick the right altcoins because we are not in 2017 when even scam coins pump.  We have been moving sideways on this chart for a long time, but nothing lasts forever. I expect a breakdown of this bearish rectangle pattern very soon!  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this structure is very bearish and we should continue down with another impulse wave. From an EW standpoint, an ABC correction has been completed, so there is probably nothing that can stop this downtrend.  ALT SEASON usually happens when the BTC.D goes down. It's usually during bull markets. When we are in a bear market, everyone is selling their altcoins and buying bitcoin instead.  The 0.618 FIB extension from wave (1) to wave (2) is the next target, but I think we can go even lower later.  Make sure to pick the right altcoins. I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below.  For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
64
BTC Likely to Test June 2022 Lows SoonToday saw volatile, whipsawing price action in both cryptos and equity indices. BTC was no exception. As discussed in an article on September 19, 2022 at the start of this week (see link in the Primary Chart above), the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held their September 2022 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. This meeting concluded today with a presser at 2:00 p.m. EST in the US. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that monetary policy would continue to remain restrictive and tight for quite some time until inflation comes down toward its 2% target. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels. After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above. In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts. Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets. Please also see the update by @Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD. ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
2
NDX / QQQ Supports That May Spark the Next Bear RallyPrimary Chart: 11-Month Downtrend Lines, Support at June and September 2022 Lows Forming Right-Angled Triangle, Fibonacci Levels The Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX or NASDAQ:QQQ ) has been in a sharp downtrend nearly all year with intermittent bear rallies that have been sharp and powerful. A week ago, despite price having already fallen significantly from August 16, 2022 peaks, this author identified the likelihood that the downtrend would continue even further to short-term targets at $269-$270. (More aggressive targets in a range from $254 to $267 were also identified in the September 2022 post, but those have not been reached yet.) Now that price has fallen almost exactly to the June 2022 lows, a support line across those lows can be drawn—and this support level intersects with the downward trendlines (there are two alternative downward trendlines on the Primary Chart). When these two support levels intersect with the downward trendlines, a right-angled triangle is formed. This is also known as a descending triangle. Because this is a multi-month triangle, it may not break easily; however, this bear market has broken conventional expectations repeatedly, so anything is possible. But price could make more than one attempt to break the lower edge of the triangle before succeeding. The next chart shows one such possibility. Note that there are many possibilities, and this remains just a single hypothetical price path that reflects the concept that horizontal line of a multi-month right-angled triangle might not break on the first attempt as lesser supports can. Supplementary Chart A: Right-Angled Triangle with Hypothetical Price Path Involving Whipsaw Break Before a Successful Break Later in the Year This hypothetical possibility does not make the chart bullish. It just recognizes that price action can work to confound bears and bulls alike. And it acknowledges that price can reach oversold extremes right at critical multi-month supports, which may require two or more attempts to break. Whipsaws are not uncommon on both intraday and longer-term time frames. Even though the NDX / QQQ remains within a strong downtrend, the sharp rallies this past year have shown that even the bears have to be ready for anything. Bears anticipating a straight line lower can get annihilated. The lower edge of this right-angled triangle is also right at multi-year support identified in the above-referenced post published September 22, 2022. Like a multi-month triangle, multi-year support may not break on the first attempt. Or if it does break in the next week, the first break may end up being a whipsaw break, that leads to price recovering back above the support (and lower edge of the triangle) to rally or chop further until the final break, which could be weeks or months away. Supplementary Chart B: Multi-Year Support Level (Blue Rectangle) The .618 retracement level is another level of interest that could hold and spark another bear rally. This level is the yellow line on the next chart, and it lies at $258 on QQQ. Another Fibonacci level has confluence with the .618 R, and lies just beneath it (teal blue). Supplementary Chart C: Two Circles Identifying Target Zones That Could Spark the Next Bear Rally ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SquishTrade
6
Bitcoin - No one is talking about this! There are currently 3 options with a high probability of happening:  1) Bitcoin will crash very soon, so after that we can start an alt-season on altcoins after the crash to 13k (best option). 2) Bitcoin will go sideways for another 3 months and create a descending triangle, which will be the most boring time (you don't want it). 3) Bitcoin will go slightly up to the yellow trendline to catch all traders in a trap and then it will crash (disgusting scenario). 4) The bottom is in and Bitcoin will reach 200 000 USDT next year (no chance). Bitcoin is below all possible trendlines on the macro scale, so the bearish pressure is extremely high at this moment! Pretty much no one is talking about this parallel channel on the LOG scale. Also, no one is talking about the yellow trendline. But I would not be surprised at all if we break this parallel channel, because at this point, everyone will turn super bullish and after that, Bitcoin will drop like a rock. To complete an impulse structure from an Elliott Wave perspective, the price needs to print another impulse sub-wave to the downside. At this point, if we break 32 000 USDT, I can say that the bottom is in, which I would love to absolutely! If you haven't heard about the QNT (quant) altcoin, it's time to buy! For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
90