Solid BULL & BEAR trap of SPXBull to bear to bull to bear.
Get those exchanges pumping!!!
Before a solid dump for the solar eclipse.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!!!!
Bearkmarket
BTC/USDT BEARISH CONFIRMATION!The final monthly support trend from all the way back to 2021 is finaly giving up. Btc has been in a short distribution fase of Wykhoff to get all the final liquidity and supply for a move downwards. As we can see from a higher timeframe BTC has broken the marketstructure. On the weekly we can confirm this. A downwards trend is holding the price down.
Important key levels of supply:
26k-28.8k
22.5k-24K
18k-20k
The next upcoming range will be the final range between 26k and the current price. We have to break 26.636 to confirm a market structure break. This will act as a important bias for a move downwards.
Updates will follow soon.
Cem
Break of the 99 moving average bullish cycles btc.These cycles I mention in my TA are based on 4H MA (99) support. I've traded the past month based on this MA 4H and I believe its one of the key factors why btc pumped so hard. We have had 2 cycles now, which both touched the MA in a period of 13 1/3 days. Now btc dumped a bit hard, that's why it's difficult to think of another cycle like the other 2. And tbh I expected a bigger pump for btc before the retrace. So now is btc forced to another channel? Or cycle? Im still analyzing btc and planning to long it soon when it touches the moving average.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YETRight now, it's make or break for Bitcoin.
We are currently testing December's resistance line.
On the Auto-Scale, we broke through that line already, but not on the logscale.
The overall sentiment is bullish and I don't get why to be quite honest with you.
Yes, we had a 30% increase in two weeks.
Yes, we are forming higher highs and higher lows short term.
However, that does NOT change the fact that we are far away from being in a bull market.
People tend to forget what the longterm price action is telling us.
Notice how each time the RSI reached 60 level while price touched the resistance line, BTC dropped big time .
We've been forming lower highs since December .
What's so bullish about that?
Additionally, I see BTC forming a huge rising wedge on the daily chart, which, combined with the afore mentioned factors, is anything but "obviously bullish" .
The 12.500$-11.200$ has proven to be a key zone multiple times.
I'm going to turn bullish, once we get a sustained breakthrough at that zone.
Right now, I see three potential scenarios for BTC.
1 . Price fails to break through the resistance and we get a nasty drop towards a new low (I'm anticipating 5.500$ - 5.000$) and see how things go from there.
2 . We get a low volume break through and form some sort of a double top at the blue zone ( 9.000$ - 9.300$ ) and fall below the rising wedge, forming a new low.
3 . We actually get a trend reversal (less likely in my oppinion) and retest the 11k$ level.
Anyways, right now is not the time to take either long or short positions.
Whales are doing their thing and the overall price behavior is anything but predictable right now.
Price is increasing, while volume is decreasing.
There are random pumps & dumps taking place.
Before taking any positions, I highly recommend everybody to WAIT for a UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE CONFIRMATION.
That's it from my side, I'm going to keep you guys updated!
Regards
Shaheen
PULLBACK DOESN'T MEAN TREND REVERSALGreat evening ladies and gentlemen,
so today we got a pretty unexpected & strong pump.
This pump invalidated my initial idea of retesting 5.800$ this week.
Since then, we had some sort of consolidation, which made us form a bullflag.
Target of the afore mentioned bull flag would be around 8.800$, which would correlate with our previous high/resistance during the end of march.
Do I think the bear market is over?
Definetly not and there are multiple reasons for that.
Once you switch to the logscale, we're still clearly within a downtrend and are far away from breaking resistance.
History has proven the log scale is the most reliable source when it comes to analyzing BTC.
In addition to that, we haven't had a capitulation yet.
There's a reason why professionals rely on market cycles.
It's because they repeat themselves over and over again, whether you like it or not.
Capitulation and despair are signifcant components when it comes to these and we haven't witnessed them yet.
Furthermore, a downtrend does NOT exclude short term rallies.
Whether we go up or down, there's always some sort of pullback taking place, which is healthy and nothing uncommon.
Thus I'm expecting a short term rally within the next few days before the final leg down.
Also notice how we had a similar pattern during the 2k13/2k14 bearmarket.
Regards & happy trading.
JUST ANTOHER BULLTRAP?
Patience is key.
There's something interesting to notice.
Everytime we're having a BTC bounce towards a LOWER HIGH, people all of a sudden become euphoric & bullish, claiming the bear market is over.
There is no reason to be bullish at all.
Old supports are turned into new resistances.
Right now, BTC is doing nothing but confirming a new resistance around 7.400$ - 7.500$, which used to be a key support level.
Elliot Wave count indicates that we are moving within WAVE 5, heading towards 5.500$.
Why 5.500$?
Because it has been confirmed multiple times as a key support level.
In addition to that, we got a bearish divergence on the 4H Chart, nothing happy about that.
Voulume is decreasing.
I'm using the current bounce to add new short positions.
Have a nice day & happy trading!
Market ExhaustionThe market has ran up this past week after it bounce. Now volume is running dry and it ran into heavy resistance. it also broke the trend line (yellow line) up top. We want to see price CLOSE below the light blue neck line before we enter a short position to fill the gap at 203.85.
