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Bearmarket

RAY Outlook: Is a -60% Drop the Reset We Need?RAY marked its bottom in December 2022 at just $0.133, entering a prolonged accumulation phase that lasted nearly a year. Then, in late 2023, it broke out into an explosive bull run, skyrocketing +6421% over 756 days and peaking at an impressive $8.70. This run completed a full five-wave Elliott Wave structure. After topping out, RAY dropped -84% down to $1.388 — likely marking the Wave A correction. A strong relief rally followed into the $4 region before facing rejection at the yearly VWAP, possibly completing Wave B. Now, all signs point toward us being in the final Wave C of the larger corrective structure. So, where could Wave C bottom out? 🔍 Fibonacci Confluence Zones (Log Scale) Let’s assess the key levels with log-scaled Fibonacci tools: 🔹 Fib Retracement (from $0.133 low to $8.7 high): The 0.618 fib retracement lies at $0.658 🔹 Trend-Based Fib Extension (Wave A → B projection for Wave C): 1.0 TBFE sits at $0.617 ✅ These two levels align nearly perfectly, giving us a strong confluence zone between $0.62 and $0.66 Additional Confluences Anchored VWAP Bands: The 0.618 VWAP band multiplier also aligns with this $0.6 zone Liquidity Perspective: This level would wipe out long positions built over the past 550 days — clearing and potentially resetting the market 🚨 Fair Value Trend Model (FV Trend Model): According to my Fair Value Trend Model indicator, the fair value for RAY currently sits around $0.78 — right in line with the broader confluence zone. This model uses log-log regression to estimate Bitcoin’s and other assets’ fair-value over time. 👉 Feel free to use the indicator Just head over to my profile, click on the “Scripts” tab, and you can add the Fair Value Trend Model to your charts to experiment with it yourself. Together, these technical elements form a compelling high-probability zone for long setups around $0.6–$0.8. 💡 Educational Insight — Why 0.618 is a Critical Fib Level In Elliott Wave theory and harmonic trading, the 0.618 retracement is known as the "Golden Ratio" — often serving as a magnet for price during corrections. When paired with a 1.0 trend-based fib extension, it can mark exhaustion zones where Wave C concludes. 🔭 Summary: What’s Next for RAY? Potential bottom zone: $0.61–$0.78 Watch for reversal signals like bullish candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or divergences A drop to this zone would represent a -60% drawdown from current levels Remember: High-probability setups don’t come every day — patience is your edge Set alerts. Stay prepared. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Short
by SiDec
5
ONDO — Reversal or more Pain ahead? After a strong rally back in 2024, ONDO topped at $2.15 — completing a clear 5-wave impulsive move. Since then, price has entered a prolonged downtrend, dropping over -70%, with no confirmed reversal signs yet. We’re now trading around a critical zone near $0.70. So the question is: where’s the next potential bottom? 🔎 Technical Breakdown: 📍 VWAP Breakdown: The yellow anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) has been lost — a clear sign of market weakness. This VWAP was previously acting as support but has now flipped to resistance, which often precedes continued downside. 📌 Key Support Zone: $0.80–$0.70 was a structural support area that has now been broken — another bearish sign. 📉 Fibonacci Confluence: Taking the structure and applying a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.786 retracement lies at $0.4828 — let’s round that to a critical $0.50 zone. This level is important for several reasons: Liquidity rests at a previous key low at $0.50128 Anchored VWAP Band (0.618 multiplier) aligns with the same area The 8/1 Gann Fan also intersects around this zone All roads lead to the $0.50 level as a potential high-probability reversal zone. A bounce from here — especially with volume confirmation or reversal candlesticks etc. — would be a signal worth watching. 💡 Educational Insight: Importance of 0.786–0.886 Fibonacci Zone + VWAP While many focus on the 0.618 retracement, bear markets often go deeper. The 0.786–0.886 zone is where emotional exhaustion kicks in — traders give up, liquidity pools build, and smart money steps in. Combining this with Anchored VWAP adds precision: VWAP reflects where the “average buyer” is positioned. When price reaches confluence with both deep fibs and VWAP fib bands, you have a statistically powerful setup for reversals. 🚨 Note: These zones are not automatic buy levels — watch for confirmation signs before entering. 🛎️ Set your alerts, stay patient, and as always let the trade come to you. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Short
by SiDec
6
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap📉 Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth. 🧐 Here’s how the cycle works: 1️⃣ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers. 2️⃣ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave." 3️⃣ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders. 4️⃣ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion. 5️⃣ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle. 📊 Historical Evidence: - 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery. - 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH. - 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak. 🔎 If you’re buying now, be ready to: ⛔ Lose access to your money ⛔ Keep covering margins ⛔ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens … They play the same trick, every time. If you don’t recognize it, you’re just another part of the cycle. 🚀🔥 INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
SWISSQUOTE:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
57
Trend Base Fib Time suggesting getting out before October 2025!I have been warning you that time is running and a few months left before things start cooling off. This tool is trend base fib time , measured from one halving till the next one. I assumed halving in 2028 at some point in march so this result in a target of October to be the month matching with the 0.382 when peaks use to be found. The 0.618 would be the one for catching the bottoms around Sep 2026. Secure some gains and buy back at next bear market lows close to 40k. Cheers
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by elalemiami
1
Dow Jonas - Elliot wave📉 DJI — Elliott Wave Top in Sight? 🔍 A long-term analysis with serious implications... I've been diving deep into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), using Elliott Wave principles — and what I see may signal the end of one of the longest bull markets in history. Elliott was right — the massive bull cycle did arrive and extended well into the 2000s. But now, that journey looks to be nearing its final destination. Currently, I believe we're witnessing the development of an Ending Diagonal pattern — a structure often seen at the end of a major impulse. This formation appears to be completing a set of blue sub-waves, which in turn cap off the larger green primary impulse wave. 📍 The box marks my anticipated top for the DJI. From this point, I expect a strong reversal and the beginning of a major correction. Now here's the shocking part: If this correction plays out in time and reaches the Fibonacci 0.382 level, that would suggest a retracement spanning up to 86 years — yes, 86 years. This isn’t just about markets anymore — such a scenario could carry massive consequences for the global economy and society as a whole. If, however, we see a strong breakout above the box, then the ending diagonal thesis would be invalidated, and we might instead be witnessing an extended wave 5 — complete with five internal sub-waves. But either way — the top is coming. It’s just a matter of when, and how hard we fall. 💬 What are your thoughts? Could we really be on the edge of a generational peak?
TVC:DJIShort
by CeBee
Bitcoin Repeating 2022 Structure? Same Setup, Same Outcome?Bitcoin’s current market structure is starting to mirror its 2022 setup—right before the big drop. This chart shows a familiar pattern: a rally, a peak, first drop from the ATH, a bull trap… then the major second leg down. If history repeats, CRYPTOCAP:BTC could be on the verge of another significant move. Will it break the cycle this time—or follow the same path again? 📉 What do you think? Share your take in the comments below. Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Short
by PetrockTheAnalyst
Bull Trap – The Real Drop May Just Be Starting! (Crash Ahead?)The market appears to be gaining bullish momentum, giving the impression that the bear market is over—but what if it’s just getting started? On this CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL chart, the current price action seems to mirror the 2021–2022 bear market cycle: a rally to new highs, a sharp drop, a deceptive recovery (bull trap), followed by a deeper correction and eventual accumulation. If this pattern plays out again, we could be in the bull trap phase—right before a significant and unexpected drop. What do you think? Will history repeat itself, or are we heading to new highs? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by PetrockTheAnalyst
$BTC: We Are in a Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise🚨 CRYPTOCAP:BTC : We Are in a Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise 🚨 📌 Follow-up to my December 2024 post: 🔗 Despite record-breaking bullish news, Bitcoin is not at an all-time high. Why? Because we’re still in a bear market—until the charts say otherwise. ✅ Bullish Factors: Michael Saylor continues buying billions President Trump & family pushing crypto/meme coins Rumors: Fed buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC with gold? Trump pinned the Bitcoin white paper at the White House U.S. banks fully onboard with crypto ETFs accumulating CRYPTOCAP:BTC National crypto reserve announced ❌ Bearish Signals: Fear & Greed Index in "extreme fear" for 30+ days Price is below the EMA50 on weekly Monthly MACD nearing bearish crossover Trading volume decreasing Crypto search interest at multi-year lows Retails not buying — this is all institutions Powell confirmed we're in a recession Desperate whales calling for $5M–$9M BTC to bait retail 🧭 Monthly chart check the MACD: 🔗 ⚠️ Key Insight: Every cycle, people confuse a relief rally for a new bull run. This isn't new. A relief rally = short-term price recovery in a bear market. (AKA a dead cat bounce or sucker rally) 📊 Past relief rallies (check the chart): +45% (Feb 2022) +32% (June 2022) Current one: only +16% — still within bear territory. 📉 Price could hit $91k and still drop lower while staying in an ongoing bear Market.. 🧨 Bear Market Target: GETTEX:25K – FWB:27K 📈 Invalidation? Only if we close above $101K Don’t trade your emotions. Trade the charts. They never lie. #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTC #BearMarket #CryptoAnalysis #SPX500 #CryptoTrading #Recession2025 #BTCPrice #CryptoCrash #CryptoNews #MichaelSaylor #TrumpCrypto #BTCBearMarket
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoNikkoid
3
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
68
The Road to $100k BitcoinBitcoin is most likely forming a left-translated 60-day cycle . Expect Bitcoin to trend downward for the next month, making a lower low in this 60-day cycle and fully scaring the market. People will start screaming “bear market” and panic-sell their coins to market makers, institutions, and patient investors. Once that’s done, Bitcoin will resume its bull market, heading toward a market top in Q2/Q3 2025. This would mirror 2021’s bull market behavior, align with the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, and leave enough time for the market to fully reset by late 2026.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheStrategyMaster
$DXY suffers worst day since Nov 10, 2022 – What does it mean?💵 The US Dollar Index just posted its biggest daily drop in nearly 2.5 years, crashing through the 100 level with strong volume. This breakdown signals weakness in the dollar that could have massive implications across all asset classes: 📉 Why it matters: A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive globally, but also reflects investor fear or policy shifts. Commodities like gold, oil, and crypto tend to rally when the dollar drops. Could indicate a pivot in monetary policy, potential rate cuts, or macroeconomic concerns. 🧠 From a technical standpoint, this break of support could trigger further downside. The last time this happened, we saw a significant shift in risk appetite. 📊 What to watch: Upcoming Fed statements Inflation & jobs data Reaction in equities and crypto 👇 Is this the start of a larger trend, or just an overreaction? Let’s discuss! #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #Macro #MarketUpdate #Commodities #Gold #Crypto #TradingView
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by SmartSignalss
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple: ✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs. That’s exactly where we are. 🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark. 🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared: We are in a bear market. 👀 What does this mean? Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news. Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment. While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet. 🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns. What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash? #SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SmartSignalss
Russell 2000: How deep can the Bear Market go?As the markets navigate uncertainty, the Russell 2000 appears to have entered a #bearmarket, contrasting with other indices that are still correcting. A pressing question looms: Has the market correction concluded, or are we on the brink of a broader bear market? Last Friday's market turmoil saw panic-like sell-offs, deeply affecting major U.S. and European #stocks with losses ranging from 6% to over 10%. Such widespread sell-offs suggest a panic reaction, possibly indicating a market bottom. However, panic alone cannot confirm this hypothesis. To evaluate the likelihood of a deeper bear market and potential buying opportunities, several factors need consideration. Currently, the Russell 2000 is approximately 30% down from its previous all-time high. Technically, it rests in a horizontal support zone. However, the strength of this zone is debatable. Let’s explore why. The initial moves by President Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs have already been felt, but the reactions of other nations remain unpredictable. Should other countries react strongly or if further tariffs and legal changes are introduced by President Trump, we could be heading toward a global trade war. Such a development could compromise the support zone, potentially driving the Russell 2000 down by 50%, reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic drop in 2020. A target range of 1250–1200 points could thus be realistic. If the situation deteriorates further and we revisit pandemic lows, the Russell 2000 could plummet by nearly 60%, reaching as low as 950 points, mirroring the 2020 scenario. I've recently suggested that this scenario may be the right time to cautiously start building small positions, considering additional declines could occur. A cautious and incremental market entry is a wise strategy during such uncertain periods. We hope this focused analysis on the #Russell2000 provides valuable insights as you navigate these turbulent times.
CAPITALCOM:RTYShort
by ManuDXB
1
Using Put Options to Protect Your Stock PortfolioCME: Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week’s bloodshed of global financial market made history. Nearly all major asset classes fell into a market turmoil driven by tariffs and retaliations. Let’s focus on the US stock market: • Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.76% in the week of March 31st to April 4th, making it the 4th worst weekly performance on record • S&P 500 slipped 8.77%, the 4th worst week in history • Nasdaq Composite fell 9.18%, the 2nd worst week • Russell gave up 9.34%, the 3rd worst week All four stock index futures were in negative territory year-to-date. On Sunday evening, E-Mini S&P 500 opened 178 points lower to 4,932, losing 17.1% YTD. All parties ultimately come to an end. After two years of double-digit gains, the unstoppable US stock market finally cracked. As more tariffs and retaliations are expected to escalate, I am afraid that we are only seeing the beginning, rather than the end. For stock investors, this is a good reminder of market risk, something we always talk about but seldomly pay attention to. The “return of investment” should be focusing on the repayment of your money, a safety issue. Only after that should we talk about the gain from the investment. It is a necessity to protect your portfolio to achieve long-term growth. Trading with Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures For investors with a diversified portfolio, Put Options on the E-Mini S&P 500 futures are effective and cost-efficient tools. Investors who long the stocks will lose money, should stock prices fall. Put options would gain in value, providing a hedge to the portfolio. The following illustration shows a hypothetical example, given: • An investor has a $250,000 portfolio holding a diversified pool of U.S. stocks • CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ) have a contract size of $50 times the index value • The June contract (ESM5) was quoting at 4,935 Sunday evening Friday, making the notional value of 1 contract $246,750, approximately equal to our portfolio value • Assuming the portfolio moves closely in line with the S&P 500 • The investor wants to limit the loss of his portfolio to 12%. If the S&P 500 index is currently around 4950, a put option with a strike price of 4350 would roughly correspond to a 12% decline Hedging trade illustration: • The investor buys 1 put option on the June futures with the strike price of 4,600 • CME quote on that Put option is 223. As the contract is $50 times the index, the premium upfront for one put option contract is $11,150 (223*$50), ignoring any commissions • The put premium is calculated as 4.46% of the $250K portfolio If S&P drops to 4,200 (-15.15%) by the end of April: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $37,879, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4600-strike put is now 400 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $20,000 (= 400 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 37879+11150-20000 = $29,029 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29029 / 250000), which is 3.5% lower than the S&P loss and with the preset loss limit If S&P drops to 4,000 (-19.2%) by the end of May: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $47,980, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4850-strike put is now 600 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $30,000 (= 600 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 47980+11150-30000 = $29,130 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29,130 / 250000) As we can see here, when the S&P falls sharply, the investor will be able to cap his loss to 11.6%. In a “protective put” strategy, we would consider the option premium an insurance contract for owning stocks. If the index rises, the portfolio return would be lowered a little because of the premium upfront, that is, the cost of insurance. However, the protection is a lifesaver if the index falls. Before jumping into action, the investor needs to run a correlation analysis using the daily value of the portfolio against the S&P 500 closing prices. Here is how: • Some trading software has correlation feature built in already • If not, pull 1-year daily portfolio balance and 1-year S&P closing prices, export them to Excel. Run correlation test with these two data series using Excel data analysis tool. • Alternatively, we could drop the data into ChatGPT and ask AI to do the work for us. If the correlation is greater than 50%, it means that S&P 500 is a good fit to hedge the portfolio. If it is not, we could try the correlation analysis using the other stock index closing prices, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Then replace E-Mini S&P 500 futures with the stock index futures contract best fit the portfolio. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling. On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall. On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣 🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing: The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987. A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down. The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty. ⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger? 📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation. 🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore? #BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
6