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Bearmarket

$DXY suffers worst day since Nov 10, 2022 – What does it mean?💵 The US Dollar Index just posted its biggest daily drop in nearly 2.5 years, crashing through the 100 level with strong volume. This breakdown signals weakness in the dollar that could have massive implications across all asset classes: 📉 Why it matters: A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive globally, but also reflects investor fear or policy shifts. Commodities like gold, oil, and crypto tend to rally when the dollar drops. Could indicate a pivot in monetary policy, potential rate cuts, or macroeconomic concerns. 🧠 From a technical standpoint, this break of support could trigger further downside. The last time this happened, we saw a significant shift in risk appetite. 📊 What to watch: Upcoming Fed statements Inflation & jobs data Reaction in equities and crypto 👇 Is this the start of a larger trend, or just an overreaction? Let’s discuss! #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #Macro #MarketUpdate #Commodities #Gold #Crypto #TradingView
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by SmartSignalss
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple: ✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs. That’s exactly where we are. 🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark. 🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared: We are in a bear market. 👀 What does this mean? Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news. Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment. While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet. 🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns. What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash? #SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SmartSignalss
Russell 2000: How deep can the Bear Market go?As the markets navigate uncertainty, the Russell 2000 appears to have entered a #bearmarket, contrasting with other indices that are still correcting. A pressing question looms: Has the market correction concluded, or are we on the brink of a broader bear market? Last Friday's market turmoil saw panic-like sell-offs, deeply affecting major U.S. and European #stocks with losses ranging from 6% to over 10%. Such widespread sell-offs suggest a panic reaction, possibly indicating a market bottom. However, panic alone cannot confirm this hypothesis. To evaluate the likelihood of a deeper bear market and potential buying opportunities, several factors need consideration. Currently, the Russell 2000 is approximately 30% down from its previous all-time high. Technically, it rests in a horizontal support zone. However, the strength of this zone is debatable. Let’s explore why. The initial moves by President Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs have already been felt, but the reactions of other nations remain unpredictable. Should other countries react strongly or if further tariffs and legal changes are introduced by President Trump, we could be heading toward a global trade war. Such a development could compromise the support zone, potentially driving the Russell 2000 down by 50%, reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic drop in 2020. A target range of 1250–1200 points could thus be realistic. If the situation deteriorates further and we revisit pandemic lows, the Russell 2000 could plummet by nearly 60%, reaching as low as 950 points, mirroring the 2020 scenario. I've recently suggested that this scenario may be the right time to cautiously start building small positions, considering additional declines could occur. A cautious and incremental market entry is a wise strategy during such uncertain periods. We hope this focused analysis on the #Russell2000 provides valuable insights as you navigate these turbulent times.
CAPITALCOM:RTYShort
by ManuDXB
Using Put Options to Protect Your Stock PortfolioCME: Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week’s bloodshed of global financial market made history. Nearly all major asset classes fell into a market turmoil driven by tariffs and retaliations. Let’s focus on the US stock market: • Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.76% in the week of March 31st to April 4th, making it the 4th worst weekly performance on record • S&P 500 slipped 8.77%, the 4th worst week in history • Nasdaq Composite fell 9.18%, the 2nd worst week • Russell gave up 9.34%, the 3rd worst week All four stock index futures were in negative territory year-to-date. On Sunday evening, E-Mini S&P 500 opened 178 points lower to 4,932, losing 17.1% YTD. All parties ultimately come to an end. After two years of double-digit gains, the unstoppable US stock market finally cracked. As more tariffs and retaliations are expected to escalate, I am afraid that we are only seeing the beginning, rather than the end. For stock investors, this is a good reminder of market risk, something we always talk about but seldomly pay attention to. The “return of investment” should be focusing on the repayment of your money, a safety issue. Only after that should we talk about the gain from the investment. It is a necessity to protect your portfolio to achieve long-term growth. Trading with Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures For investors with a diversified portfolio, Put Options on the E-Mini S&P 500 futures are effective and cost-efficient tools. Investors who long the stocks will lose money, should stock prices fall. Put options would gain in value, providing a hedge to the portfolio. The following illustration shows a hypothetical example, given: • An investor has a $250,000 portfolio holding a diversified pool of U.S. stocks • CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ) have a contract size of $50 times the index value • The June contract (ESM5) was quoting at 4,935 Sunday evening Friday, making the notional value of 1 contract $246,750, approximately equal to our portfolio value • Assuming the portfolio moves closely in line with the S&P 500 • The investor wants to limit the loss of his portfolio to 12%. If the S&P 500 index is currently around 4950, a put option with a strike price of 4350 would roughly correspond to a 12% decline Hedging trade illustration: • The investor buys 1 put option on the June futures with the strike price of 4,600 • CME quote on that Put option is 223. As the contract is $50 times the index, the premium upfront for one put option contract is $11,150 (223*$50), ignoring any commissions • The put premium is calculated as 4.46% of the $250K portfolio If S&P drops to 4,200 (-15.15%) by the end of April: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $37,879, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4600-strike put is now 400 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $20,000 (= 400 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 37879+11150-20000 = $29,029 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29029 / 250000), which is 3.5% lower than the S&P loss and with the preset loss limit If S&P drops to 4,000 (-19.2%) by the end of May: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $47,980, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4850-strike put is now 600 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $30,000 (= 600 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 47980+11150-30000 = $29,130 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29,130 / 250000) As we can see here, when the S&P falls sharply, the investor will be able to cap his loss to 11.6%. In a “protective put” strategy, we would consider the option premium an insurance contract for owning stocks. If the index rises, the portfolio return would be lowered a little because of the premium upfront, that is, the cost of insurance. However, the protection is a lifesaver if the index falls. Before jumping into action, the investor needs to run a correlation analysis using the daily value of the portfolio against the S&P 500 closing prices. Here is how: • Some trading software has correlation feature built in already • If not, pull 1-year daily portfolio balance and 1-year S&P closing prices, export them to Excel. Run correlation test with these two data series using Excel data analysis tool. • Alternatively, we could drop the data into ChatGPT and ask AI to do the work for us. If the correlation is greater than 50%, it means that S&P 500 is a good fit to hedge the portfolio. If it is not, we could try the correlation analysis using the other stock index closing prices, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Then replace E-Mini S&P 500 futures with the stock index futures contract best fit the portfolio. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling. On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall. On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣 🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing: The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987. A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down. The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty. ⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger? 📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation. 🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore? #BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
6
VIX SURGES 50% – Is a Market Crash Unfolding? The Volatility Index (VIX) just skyrocketed 50.90% to 45.30! This is one of the largest single-day spikes in recent history, signaling extreme fear in the markets. Historically, VIX levels this high have only occurred during major financial crises like: ✅ 2008 Financial Crisis ✅ COVID Crash (2020) So, what’s driving this surge in volatility? 📊 Understanding the VIX Levels The VIX measures market fear and uncertainty based on S&P 500 options activity. 🟥 Above 25 – 🚨 High Volatility = Market panic, extreme uncertainty 🟧 15-25 – ⚠️ Medium Volatility = Elevated risk, possible correction 🟩 Below 15 – ✅ Low Volatility = Calm market conditions Right now, we’re deep into the “fear zone” at 45.30, which suggests that investors are in full risk-off mode. Why Is Volatility Exploding? 1️⃣ Stock Market Sell-Off – The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are plunging as investors flee risk assets. 2️⃣ Recession Fears – Economic indicators are flashing warning signs, and Fed policy remains uncertain. 3️⃣ Geopolitical Risks – Global tensions and economic instability are adding to investor anxiety. 4️⃣ Institutional Hedging – Large funds may be loading up on downside protection, further driving up volatility. What’s Next? If the VIX keeps climbing past 50, we could be looking at an even bigger market meltdown. A reversal below 25 could indicate that fear is cooling off and stabilization is ahead. Watch for safe-haven moves if money continues flowing into gold, bonds, and the dollar, the fear trade isn’t over yet. #BearMarket #Recession
TVC:VIX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next. 📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation? One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages: 🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA) These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum. The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure. Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand. 🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA) The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends. In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it. This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure. 🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA) The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends. Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market. The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control. ➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal. Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower. Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge. 🔥 What’s Next? If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally. If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets. Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery. Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
NASDAQ:NDX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
HBAR Bulls Nowhere in Sight – Where’s the Bottom?HBAR had an incredible bull run from November 2024 to mid-January 2025, rallying for 74 days and gaining +865%, moving from $0.0416 to a high of $0.40139. However, since then, the market has reversed, entering a 73 day downtrend and dropping -58% from its peak. Now, the big question is: where is HBAR heading next? Let’s break down the key resistance and support levels and map out potential high-probability trade setups. Current Market Structure – Bears in Control HBAR is trading at $0.16765, just below a key low at $0.17721, which it must reclaim to show any bullish strength. Several critical resistance levels lie ahead: 🔴 $0.18 - $0.20 Zone: Previously strong support, now acting as resistance 🔴 Weekly Level at $0.18375 – A significant resistance zone 🔴 Monthly Open at $0.21352 – Bulls must reclaim this to regain momentum 🔴 Weekly 21 EMA at $0.20 & 21 SMA at $0.2348 – Price is trading below both, a bearish sign 🔴 200 EMA/SMA Lost – Another bearish indicator 🔴 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement at $0.17904 – This level was lost, further confirming the bearish trend 📉 Conclusion: As long as price remains under $0.18-$0.20, the trend remains bearish, and there is no sign of reversal yet. Where Could HBAR Go Next? Finding the Next Support Levels If HBAR fails to reclaim the key resistance levels, price could continue dropping toward the next major support zone. Here’s where the next support zone is: 🟢 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement at $0.1186 – A key potential target 🟢 Weekly Support at $0.1259 – Close to the 0.786 Fib level, adding confluence 🟢 Monthly Support at $0.1145 – Further strengthening this zone 🟢 Log Scale 0.5 Fib Retracement at $0.12923 – From the full bull run, adding another layer of support 🟢 21 Monthly EMA at $0.132 & 21 Monthly SMA at $0.1079 – These levels align perfectly with the other supports 🟢 Fib Channel Lower Support (April 4th - 9th) – If price drops to $0.12 during this time window, it aligns with the lower channel support line 📉 Conclusion: A strong support zone lies between $0.132 - $0.1079, where buyers could step in for a potential bounce. Potential Trade Setups 📌 Long Setup (High Probability Reversal Zone) Entry: DCA around $0.12 Stop Loss: Below $0.098 Target: $0.166 Potential Gain: +40% R:R Ratio: 2:1 or better 🔹 If price regains $0.18-$0.20, we can look for long opportunities. 📌 Short Setup (For Those Already Shorting from Higher Levels) Take Profit Target: Between $0.14 - $0.12 Stop Loss: Above $0.20 Market Outlook With HBAR currently in a bearish trend, we have clearly defined key support and resistance zones and potential trade setups. The next few weeks will be crucial, as price either reclaims $0.18-$0.20 (bullish case) or drops further toward $0.12 (where a strong bounce could happen). 📢 Patience is key! Let the setup come to you and don’t force trades. Always manage risk properly. What are your thoughts on HBAR’s next move? Leave a comment below! 🚀
Long
by SiDec
6
The Road to $100k BitcoinBitcoin is most likely forming a left-translated 60-day cycle . Expect Bitcoin to trend downward for the next month, making a lower low in this 60-day cycle and fully scaring the market. People will start screaming “bear market” and panic-sell their coins to market makers, institutions, and patient investors. Once that’s done, Bitcoin will resume its bull market, heading toward a market top in Q2/Q3 2025. This would mirror 2021’s bull market behavior, align with the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, and leave enough time for the market to fully reset by late 2026.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheStrategyMaster
TIA: 40% Crash in Sight – What's Next?TIA recently lost its strong $4 support, and that level is now acting as resistance. For the past two months, the price hasn’t been able to climb back above $4, leaving us with one burning question: Is more blood on the table? Broken Support: TIA has given up its $4 support, which now serves as resistance. Looking at November 2024: The low from November 2024 was around $1.9. Revisiting that level could provide us with a high-probability long trade. Trade Setup Opportunity Entry Point: Set an alarm for the $1.9 low. A successful bounce here would signal a potential long trade opportunity. Target & Reward: With the goal of targeting the $3 level, this trade could offer a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 5:1. Implication: If the $1.9 level is revisited and holds, we could be looking at a scenario with roughly 40% more downside in the current trend—but also a setup for a low-risk long if the bounce holds.
Short
by SiDec
2
$BTC: Key Levels to Watch in the MarketKey Levels to Watch in the Market 📉 Bybit hack aftermath: Destroyed market sentiment Shook institutional confidence Killed the national reserve idea (US states considering Bitcoin reserves have now canceled their votes) 🚀 The last push to $99K was all Michael Saylor, spending SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B alone. Is he insane? Buying at the top of the market? Painful Consolidation Ahead? We’re sitting at $91K—a crucial support. If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, expect a freefall to $85K, then possibly $81K (major support zones). From there, Bitcoin can either: ✅ Bounce into a relief rally ❌ Break down into a full bear market if it falls below Support 3 Tough Times for Crypto Meme coin frenzy scared off retail investors after massive losses. Presidents rugging people doesn’t help trust in the industry. Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation up, forcing the FED to hike interest rates. Any Good News? Nope. 📉 SPX500 is also dropping. 🔍 TruthLabs warns that if a bear market starts, most exchanges and DeFi protocols won’t survive —they aren’t backed 1:1. This could trigger the worst bear market ever. (See their warning here: x.com) Final Thoughts ⚠️ Watch $91K—if it breaks, exit the market and wait. No need to get rekt in this toxic environment. And pray that Tether has enough liquidity to handle the mass exodus. Put your funds on Binance or another reputable exchange. 🔍 DYOR
by CryptoNikkoid
2
Is it still a bull market? Or are we already in a bear market?If it's still a bull market, what phase are we in? Of course, President Trump has complicated all this, as he is taking political and economic steps to stabilize the American economy. For example, the tariffs that he uses as a tool to achieve his goals faster. In other words, in trading terms, leverage. With those tariffs, he turned on the x100 lever and achieved in 2 days what could have taken several years to negotiate. And maybe another president wouldn't have succeeded at all. Of course, this has a negative impact on the market, as investors don't know what to expect from the market. That's why they are withdrawing their money from the market in general. The same applies to the stock market. Since America is the strongest economy in the world at the moment, this is also reflected in the world markets in general. Of course, crypto is taking the most of this, as it is a relatively young market and is still perceived as very risky. We are in a bull market phase, where we should be growing. But we are not growing because of such a strong fundamental. On the contrary, the market is bleeding. That's why everyone is arguing about whether we are still in a bull market. When I look at the Bitcoin chart, it seems to me that we are probably not in a bull market anymore.
by kryptometal_kryptosvet
Dead Bitcoin soon will break 92K support (Bye 100K and Hi 80K) As we mentioned a lot major support which is 92K$ is holding price from falling now for 8Th times and each time a support or resistance touch it gets weaker and soon this support will also break to the downside and below 90K$ we are looking for massive dump and fall and start of bear market for at least 2-3 months and this would be correction and rest for market and bitcoin and after that we are looking for rise and next phase pump for the market and maybe targets like 130K$ and more. So for now we are looking for correction and dump like the red arrows and for confirmation of bear market and dump major support zone should break soon. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Short
by MMBTtrader
118
$BTC Critical Support Retest at 50WMA - Must Read!50WMA is a CRITICAL SUPPORT to watch for ₿itcoin. Historically, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET. We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH. People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis; this is one of them. I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market. However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction. BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years. 2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week. 2017 gave us two. January -34% over 7 days. March -33% over 14 days. January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days. The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%. $75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle. That’s the line in the sand for me. If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
4
BTC FEAR AND GREED INDEXAfter BTC corrects to the $86K level and the Timeline sentiment hit an all time low it got me thinking, is there any correlation between sentiment around pivotal price levels of the market? To find out I studied the "Fear and Greed Index", an indicator that uses a range of sources such as volatility, volume, sentiment, dominance and trends to give a score out of 100. 1 being peak fear and 100 being peak greed. The results were interesting, currently the FGI is 21/100 (extreme fear) and if you've spent much time on crypto twitter is does feel that way too. However, during this bull market there are two key price areas where BTC had the same score: Bear market bottom - When the bear market ended after a full year of brutal selling BTCs price was around $16K with the same FGI score as today with 21. This signaled the end to the selling and began the bull market we have now. Q2-23 '24 bottom - For me, the most relevant time to compare FGI with todays score is with the bottom of the bearish trend channel we suffered through in 2024. Although price did wick below this $53,923 level to hit GETTEX:49K , the daily didn't close below it and so the September 6th low is the trend channel bottom. FGI score of 22 provided the springboard for the next leg up. So with his information the real question is this: Are we still in a bull market? If the answer is yes, then history tells us once FGI reaches these levels the bottom is in and the next leg up is around the corner. If the answer is no then the printing of a new lower high after yesterdays lower low will be confirmation of bitcoin rolling over. I am not sure which is true but having a plan for both will be very important.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by ProR35
4