ARB - Trade ideaThe idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 1.225$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart.
Targets:
1. 1.24$
2. 1.26$
3. 1.285$
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Bearmarket
Federal Reserve Bitcoin Trap !• Due to this report : ↓ ↓
- "The U.S. administration sold approximately 9,861 Bitcoins"
- Furthermore, the U.S government seeks to unload the remaining 41,139 Bitcoins during the course of the current year."
- This year, we may see Bitcoin at 10K !
TradingView tweet link : twitter.com
BTC - Must pay attention to this zone! Here's a quick look at the Daily BTC chart.
As we can see, the zone between 29k to 30k is a critically important price range that requires close attention. It has played a pivotal role in differentiating between the bull and bear market. As soon as the price broke below this zone, the market was deemed to have entered a bear market, while staying above it signaled a continuation of the bullish trend.
Currently, the price is once again testing this critical zone, and its behavior here will be a determining factor for the market's future trajectory. A hard rejection from this level could result in a sharp decline in price, while a breakthrough could propel the price upwards to the range of 40k to 47k. Thus, investors and traders alike should closely monitor the price action around this zone to make informed decisions regarding their investments.
But the weakening trend and Fair Value Gap on multiple time frames point towards a downward move!
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With regards to ALTs:
The Altcoin market cap is struggling to break the $620B mark. If breached, expect a surge in Altcoin activity. But remember, Altcoin performance is closely tied to BTC, so a dip in BTC price will hurt Altcoins too.
Keep an eye on the $620B mark if you're looking to trade some ALTs
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
TOTAL2 - Crypto m. cap excluding BTCThe Altcoin market cap is struggling to break the $620B mark. If breached, expect a surge in Altcoin activity. But remember, Altcoin performance is closely tied to BTC, so a dip in BTC price will hurt Altcoins too.
Keep an eye on the $620B mark if you're looking to trade some ALTs
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
It's not done fallingI think is going to fail the test of the broken support now resistance. I just opened a short position. The bulls are going to put out a fight but eventually price is going to crash. Hang tight, is going to take some time to fall all the way down. This trade in the monthly timeframe, is highly reliable but takes time.
BTC - The trend is weakening! Here's a quick look at the 8 hr. BTC chart. The bearish divergence on the RSI suggests that the trend is losing momentum, and a downward move could be expected. Additionally, the low volume indicates that a substantial movement could occur at any moment. With the bearish divergence on the RSI and the low volume, it's highly likely that a move to the downside could happen soon.
It's important to consider the unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps located below the current price. Typically, these gaps are eventually filled, so expecting a price retracement to those levels is reasonable. However, it's worth noting that filling such gaps could take a while, although they are usually filled relatively quickly.
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What's a Fair Value Gap?:
A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders.
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
USDJPY - Descending Channel Hello fellow traders, as we can see USDJPY is urgently trading in a descending channel and reached a point of resistance. This resistance is also confirmed by a key FIB level @.786. If this holds we can expect to see price move towards the next support around 128.00.
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BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the BTC 4 hr . chart. As we can see, the price has formed a descending triangle, and a break, either way, will happen soon!
It is important to note that there exist significant unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps situated below the current price. As a general trend, these gaps are known to be filled eventually. Thus, it would be reasonable to anticipate a price retracement to those levels. It is worth mentioning, however, that such gaps may take an extended period to be filled, though in most cases, they are filled relatively promptly.
Also, the current volume is very low, indicating that a more significant move is coming!
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Key Dates to Watch in March:
30 Mar: GDP Report
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What's a Fair Value Gap?:
A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders.
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
$spy setting up a Bear Flag for April ‘23Looking at the recent price action on $spy shows us a clear bear flag in formation. There was no break out of the channel yet and the momentum has shift upwards so we will likely see a short term upward price movement first for the week of Mar 27 before we see downward momentum, subject to a catalyst (likely Core PCI numbers and the end of March).
Cheers!
FET - A breakout could be around the corner! Here's a quick look at FET 2 hr. chart. As we can see, the is currently at the apex of the triangle, and a breakout, either way, could be around the corner! The best entry would be when the price breaks above 0.375$.
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The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 0.375$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart.
Targets:
1. 0.38$
2. 0.393$
3. 0.4$
4. 0.41$
5. 0.42$
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Key Dates to Watch in March:
30 Mar: GDP Report
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Visualizing the Current Market in Relation to Past RecessionsIt is helpful to view past recession trajectories to get a visual idea of where we are at the moment. I chose the recessions which were most relevant to today's market conditions. The 01 (purple) and 08-09 (dark blue) recessions were the first "modern" recessions where MMT was being implemented and tech made up a significant chunk of the market. The 70 (reddish brown) and 73-75 (green) recessions were the first stagflation recessions of the 70s. Finally, the Great Depression (light blue) is shown as a worst case scenario. If this current period mirrors history, a bounce or sideways movement through the rest of 2022 wouldn't be surprising. While a depression trajectory is possible, I don't believe it is most likely at this point.
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the 8 hr BTC chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger broadening wedge. This kind of price action is tough to predict. The CPI data came in low at 6.0%, which pumped the whole market.
With a series of lower lows and higher highs, the bulls and bears are getting rekt simultaneously!
If the price stays within the broadening wedge , the next logical move would be to the downside! But you never know!
Also, watch the history of CME gaps - They've always been filled! The overall sentiment isn't bullish, so these gaps are expected to get filled in the short term!
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Key Dates to Watch in March:
21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting
30 Mar: GDP Report
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What's a Fair Value Gap?:
A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders.
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the 12 hr. BTC chart. As observed, the price has yet to break out of the broadening wedge pattern. The oscillation of lower lows and higher highs has resulted in losses for both the bulls and bears. If the price remains within the broadening wedge, a probable move to the downside may occur, though there is always uncertainty. Additionally, the historical trend indicates that CME gaps have always been filled, and given the bearish sentiment in the market, these gaps are likely to be filled in the near term.
The presence of CME and Fair Value gaps below the current price suggests an eventual correction in the downward direction. Furthermore, the overall market sentiment is not bullish, and the possibility of a black swan event remains!
It is worth noting that the price of BTC is closely linked to the DXY index, and a rebound in DXY from its current level could lead to a decrease in BTC price.
In conclusion, the price will eventually fill the CME and Fair Value gaps by correcting downwards.
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Key Dates to Watch in March:
30 Mar: GDP Report
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What's a Fair Value Gap?:
A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders.
-------------------------------------------
If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D
Follow me for daily profitable trading setups.
BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
SPY close analysis, 3/23/2023SPY opened today within my "interesting zone" — an area with substantial gaps up down/left/right and a place where I had no idea what to expect. For a moment, it looked like we might actually break out! But a swift and final rejection of this zone on the last 65m seals the deal for me to sum up a bearish thesis. All signs point to more down as we seek liquidity and support below. The natural stopping point is the confluence of old demand zones, a diagonal demand zone connecting the major bottoms since the low was set, and the long term peak resistance line dating back to the ATH. This makes too much sense not to call it.
In summary: Short SPY, target 387.6, invalidation above 400.
Era of mean reversion, SPX year timeframeHi traders,
I'm sure everyone who watches markets has made some kind of chart like this over the past six months, but I thought I'd share for those of us more comfortable with reading price action rather than economic reports or the news (obviously one needs both to be a truly excellent trader or analyst).
I marked off with the pink vertical lines every low during a correction of SPX below its 21 year EMA (yellow line), before it started back up over the 21 EMA again. Soon after that low, the 21 EMA crosses the 21 year SMA of the Bollinger Bands (red line). Highs just before each of the pink vertical lines are marked by circles. The periods of both the correction low (pink vertical line) and the aftermath (21 EMA crossing 21 SMA) represent some of the toughest periods in recent economic history, at least as measured by this particular market.
NOT ADVICE:
From a trader's perspective, assuming we're starting to see another correction that will follow a similar pattern (i.e., a correction in which price crosses down over 21 EMA and hits a low before crossing back up), a reasonable target for SPX to cross down over the 21 EMA would be 2169, assuming 3:1 reward/risk. Corresponding stop-loss would be 4610 (NOT ADVICE). On this high timeframe I interpret that 4610 value not as any kind of actual stop loss for an actual trade, but as a rational expectation for the highest SPX level we can expect over the next few years during the correction. NOT ADVICE
On a (even) darker note, the CT moving average crossover indicator currently registers "impossible" for the 21 EMA to cross the 21 SMA. To me that suggests either (1) that a much greater drop of currently unknown proportions in SPX is required below the 21 EMA (i.e., below 2169) to bring the 21 EMA down to the 21 SMA or (2) a period of consolidation and slow drift toward the 21 SMA, in order to shrink the difference between the 21 EMA and 21 SMA. I suppose the former could be called a "hard landing" and the latter a "soft landing". In my opinion, the "impossible" reading on the CT moving average crossover indicator suggests the latter scenario is at least the more rational position to take, at this point, though I plan to be ready for either scenario, of course. NOT ADVICE
Good luck, everyone.
SPX (1D) Midterm setup - BEAR Market chance is raisingHello traders, investors and other speculators :)
Yesterday before Jerome Powell spoke, markets we underestimating chance of 25bos hike. Now it seems like we can expect another 25bps hike in May.
With current conditions there are increasing odds for bear market coming as SP is falling closer to sub 3900 support levels.
Also notice rejection from exponential moving averages (EMA 55 and EMA 200 at 1D chart). Those are not good signs.
More red flags come from indicators RSI (rejection below resistance) and MACD which is down ticking again.
With expectations of S&P EPS falling ... P/E Will be considered overvalued and risky. While you can earn up to 4,5-5% p.a. by just holding government bonds.
So why the hell should S&P 500 go up from this point?
If 3900 bps support break, than we are heading MUCH LOWER. Brace yourself.