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Bearmarket

FET - A breakout could be around the corner! Here's a quick look at FET 2 hr. chart. As we can see, the is currently at the apex of the triangle, and a breakout, either way, could be around the corner! The best entry would be when the price breaks above 0.375$. ------------------------------------------- The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 0.375$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart. Targets: 1. 0.38$ 2. 0.393$ 3. 0.4$ 4. 0.41$ 5. 0.42$ ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Long
by MBM_Crypto
4
Visualizing the Current Market in Relation to Past RecessionsIt is helpful to view past recession trajectories to get a visual idea of where we are at the moment. I chose the recessions which were most relevant to today's market conditions. The 01 (purple) and 08-09 (dark blue) recessions were the first "modern" recessions where MMT was being implemented and tech made up a significant chunk of the market. The 70 (reddish brown) and 73-75 (green) recessions were the first stagflation recessions of the 70s. Finally, the Great Depression (light blue) is shown as a worst case scenario. If this current period mirrors history, a bounce or sideways movement through the rest of 2022 wouldn't be surprising. While a depression trajectory is possible, I don't believe it is most likely at this point.
SP:SPX
by Cryptogold14
2
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the 8 hr BTC chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger broadening wedge. This kind of price action is tough to predict. The CPI data came in low at 6.0%, which pumped the whole market. With a series of lower lows and higher highs, the bulls and bears are getting rekt simultaneously! If the price stays within the broadening wedge , the next logical move would be to the downside! But you never know! Also, watch the history of CME gaps - They've always been filled! The overall sentiment isn't bullish, so these gaps are expected to get filled in the short term! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
30
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the 12 hr. BTC chart. As observed, the price has yet to break out of the broadening wedge pattern. The oscillation of lower lows and higher highs has resulted in losses for both the bulls and bears. If the price remains within the broadening wedge, a probable move to the downside may occur, though there is always uncertainty. Additionally, the historical trend indicates that CME gaps have always been filled, and given the bearish sentiment in the market, these gaps are likely to be filled in the near term. The presence of CME and Fair Value gaps below the current price suggests an eventual correction in the downward direction. Furthermore, the overall market sentiment is not bullish, and the possibility of a black swan event remains! It is worth noting that the price of BTC is closely linked to the DXY index, and a rebound in DXY from its current level could lead to a decrease in BTC price. In conclusion, the price will eventually fill the CME and Fair Value gaps by correcting downwards. ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
7
SPY close analysis, 3/23/2023SPY opened today within my "interesting zone" — an area with substantial gaps up down/left/right and a place where I had no idea what to expect. For a moment, it looked like we might actually break out! But a swift and final rejection of this zone on the last 65m seals the deal for me to sum up a bearish thesis. All signs point to more down as we seek liquidity and support below. The natural stopping point is the confluence of old demand zones, a diagonal demand zone connecting the major bottoms since the low was set, and the long term peak resistance line dating back to the ATH. This makes too much sense not to call it. In summary: Short SPY, target 387.6, invalidation above 400.
AMEX:SPYShort
by upslidedown
Era of mean reversion, SPX year timeframeHi traders, I'm sure everyone who watches markets has made some kind of chart like this over the past six months, but I thought I'd share for those of us more comfortable with reading price action rather than economic reports or the news (obviously one needs both to be a truly excellent trader or analyst). I marked off with the pink vertical lines every low during a correction of SPX below its 21 year EMA (yellow line), before it started back up over the 21 EMA again. Soon after that low, the 21 EMA crosses the 21 year SMA of the Bollinger Bands (red line). Highs just before each of the pink vertical lines are marked by circles. The periods of both the correction low (pink vertical line) and the aftermath (21 EMA crossing 21 SMA) represent some of the toughest periods in recent economic history, at least as measured by this particular market. NOT ADVICE: From a trader's perspective, assuming we're starting to see another correction that will follow a similar pattern (i.e., a correction in which price crosses down over 21 EMA and hits a low before crossing back up), a reasonable target for SPX to cross down over the 21 EMA would be 2169, assuming 3:1 reward/risk. Corresponding stop-loss would be 4610 (NOT ADVICE). On this high timeframe I interpret that 4610 value not as any kind of actual stop loss for an actual trade, but as a rational expectation for the highest SPX level we can expect over the next few years during the correction. NOT ADVICE On a (even) darker note, the CT moving average crossover indicator currently registers "impossible" for the 21 EMA to cross the 21 SMA. To me that suggests either (1) that a much greater drop of currently unknown proportions in SPX is required below the 21 EMA (i.e., below 2169) to bring the 21 EMA down to the 21 SMA or (2) a period of consolidation and slow drift toward the 21 SMA, in order to shrink the difference between the 21 EMA and 21 SMA. I suppose the former could be called a "hard landing" and the latter a "soft landing". In my opinion, the "impossible" reading on the CT moving average crossover indicator suggests the latter scenario is at least the more rational position to take, at this point, though I plan to be ready for either scenario, of course. NOT ADVICE Good luck, everyone.
SP:SPX
by jer8877
SPX (1D) Midterm setup - BEAR Market chance is raisingHello traders, investors and other speculators :) Yesterday before Jerome Powell spoke, markets we underestimating chance of 25bos hike. Now it seems like we can expect another 25bps hike in May. With current conditions there are increasing odds for bear market coming as SP is falling closer to sub 3900 support levels. Also notice rejection from exponential moving averages (EMA 55 and EMA 200 at 1D chart). Those are not good signs. More red flags come from indicators RSI (rejection below resistance) and MACD which is down ticking again. With expectations of S&P EPS falling ... P/E Will be considered overvalued and risky. While you can earn up to 4,5-5% p.a. by just holding government bonds. So why the hell should S&P 500 go up from this point? If 3900 bps support break, than we are heading MUCH LOWER. Brace yourself.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
BTC - last push to 29k and then down! Here's a quick look at the 1 hr. BTC chart. As we can see, the price is currently forming a bear flag, a bearish pattern, and a decisive move could be around the corner! We may see a push to 29k to close the CME gap. Any decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 50 basis points would likely result in a considerable market downturn. So, it would be advisable to closely monitor the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow. The existence of CME- and Fair Value gaps below the current price implies an eventual downward correction. Moreover, the overall sentiment is not bullish, and the possibility of an unforeseeable black swan event remains! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
19
SHIB - Keep an eye on this level!Here's a quick look at the 8 hr . SHIB chart. As we can see, the price is getting closer to the trendline, and a break to the upside could be around the corner! BTC is close to a more significant resistance zone (29k zone), and one should be careful when trading! ------------------------------------------- The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 0.0000112$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart. Targets: 1. 0.0000115$ 2. 0.00001169$ 3. 0.0000122$ 4. 0.0000128$ ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
2
GBPJPY: BEARISH OUTLOOKThe GBPJPY trend for the month of March has been quite bearish, with the pair experiencing a significant decrease in value from 164.505 to 158.549, representing a decline of approximately 550 pips. This decline has been consistent across both daily and H4 time frames, indicating that the bearish order flow is quite strong and sustained. Despite this trend, there was a notable correction in the GBPJPY pair's trajectory, where the price experienced a deep correction to the 164.230 region, creating a double top pattern. This pattern drove the price further down to the 159.188 region, reinforcing the bearish structure. As the bearish structure is still intact, there is a high probability that the pair will continue on its downward trajectory. However, there may be a temporary push towards the 161.419 region before experiencing further downward pressure. It is important to note that any upward break of the 2nd layer trendline would signal the possibility of buyers gaining control, which might be an indication of a potential trend reversal. Based on this analysis, my short term target would be 159.750 value within the support zone while my medium term target is contingent upon the breaking of the support zone. If broken, I will be targeting the 158.362 liquidity zone.
Short
by Samuel124
BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STANDA lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug. Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out. BULL : Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY. For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over. VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out. There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later". So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023 Failure with that brings the bear case... BEAR : Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC. 24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k. There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom. I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc. Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months. Trades: Short E: 23.1k SL: 26k TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k Long E:20k SL:17.8k TP:25k, 27k, 32k SPY SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427. I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at $SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands