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Bearmarket

BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STANDA lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug. Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out. BULL : Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY. For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over. VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out. There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later". So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023 Failure with that brings the bear case... BEAR : Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC. 24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k. There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom. I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc. Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months. Trades: Short E: 23.1k SL: 26k TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k Long E:20k SL:17.8k TP:25k, 27k, 32k SPY SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427. I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at $SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
VIX: MICRO VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINTS OF CONTROL / MACD & RSI DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MICRO ANALYSIS of the VIX INDEX which represents volatility in the overall US MARKET. This is a short term play for this week based on micro volatility cycles. POINTS: 1. Deviation in critical thresholds is 4 points a small adjustment from previous VIX charts published as volatility adheres to this more often. 2. 23 Point serves as critical support for VIX. 3. Current Trend = Symmetrical Triangle Formation 2nd Phase 4. Overlapping Green Dotted Lines = Market Open 5. Overlapping Red Dotted Lines = Market Close IMO: In my opinion whether or not current setup becomes invalidated I do not see current price action falling below 23 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE DOWNSIDE while 31 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE UPSIDE. MACD: Current MACD levels continue to fall and are bound to flip into negative territory further confirming current setup that needs some pullback for VIX. RSI: Current RSI levels are dropping and no current signs of DIVERGENCE that would indicate a sudden flip to positive territory. SCENARIO #1: VIX price action agrees with current setup & respects symmetrical triangle setup and bounces off 25 in coming session & precedes to the upside to break 29. SCENARIO #2: VIX price action disagrees with current symmetrical triangle setup and breaks below 25 & faces possible bounce at 23 instead. FULL CHART LINK:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UUCv2fGk/ TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
Monthly 50MA pressure. For the first time in trading history, Bitcoin will close under 50MA on 1-month chart. This is besides death cross on the 1 week chart. Again and again, I urge those who are in love with 1-4 hour charts to watch the larger timeframes. Unique events are happening and we can see that they are having an impact. Who's to say how long the bear market will take now with an event like this? We can only hope that 2024 brings some improvement. And I really regret that Circle kept some of the currency collateral in that bank .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by averkie_skila
2
ETH - Soon there will be a breakout!Here's a quick look at the 2-day ETH chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger symmetrical triangle, and a breakout would cause a big move either way, depending on the breakout direction! If the price doesn't hold the current purple support, a move to the bottom of the triangle will be next at around 1300$. If DXY rallies, then much lower prices are expected! Remember that ETH is a leading indicator for the overall Altcoin market. If ETH breaks the triangle to the downside, altcoins will get rekt! In my opinion, ETH is going much lower than its current levels. I see ETH at sub 800$ at some point before we see the actual bear market bottom. Trade safe! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 10 Mar: US Non-farm Payrolls 10 Mar: Mt. Gox Distribution 14 Mar: #CPI Data Release 15 Mar: #PPI Data Release 21/22 Mar: #FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
7
18.2k incoming! Here's a quick look at the 8 hr . BTC chart. As we can see, the price broke below the rising channel and is currently on a mission to close the fair value gap at 18.2k! It has already closed the gap at 20k. These gaps tend to get filled at some point! Also, the DXY is expected to rally from its current level - when the DXY goes up, the BTC price will go down! I firmly believe the bottom will be close to the 10-12k area. We have yet to see the last capitulation, IMO, yet! Trade Safe! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 10 Mar: US Non-farm Payrolls 10 Mar: Mt. Gox Distribution 14 Mar: CPI Data Release 15 Mar: PPI Data Release 21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
14
BTC - Bearish trend continues!Here's a quick look at the 8 hr. BTC chart. As we can see, the price broke below the rising channel and is currently testing the bottom of the support zone! If DXY keeps rallying, the support is not going to hold! There are some unfilled Fair value gaps between 20k and 18k. These gaps tend to get filled at some point! Also, the DXY is expected to rally from its current level - when the DXY goes up, the BTC price will go down! I firmly believe the bottom will be close to the 10-12k area. We have yet to see the last capitulation, IMO, yet! Trade Safe! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 10 Mar: US Non-farm Payrolls 10 Mar: Mt. Gox Distribution 14 Mar: CPI Data Release 15 Mar: PPI Data Release 21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
5
Bearish Breakdown of Bitcoin As discussed in my prior chart, Bitcoin was on a bearish breakdown. Prior support fell quickly and now looking towards is next support level of 18,600 - 19,600. Should that level fail look for it's next level support near 16k level. I closed my shorts for a profit but will plan to re-open should we get a retest of the recent s/r flip level. AS seen below, indicators are showing negative momentum on the daily chart. The Monthly chart is also pointing with negative momentum.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by eman19
$DXY overtakes $BTCOne of the most important barometers for global currencies is the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar versus a basket of global currencies. What is the relationship between DXY and BTC? What Does it Signify? It is a known fact that the crypto price movements are deeply correlated with the DXY Index since its inception. While the DXY index gets stranger, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other assets tend to fall. Besides, if the cryptos manifest their strength, then the dollar's strength tends to fall.
TVC:DXY
by DIGITALDRO
Bearish on Nasdaq100 with upp to 47 % return on 20xTrade Plan: Asset: Nasdaq 100 index Position: Short sell Entry Point: 12360 Stop Loss: As this is a short position, the stop loss should be above the entry point to limit the potential loss. Based on your risk tolerance and the volatility of the market, you can set the stop loss at a level that you're comfortable with. Let's say you set the stop loss at 12600, which is 2% above the entry point. Leverage: 20x Position Size: The position size will depend on your capital and risk management strategy. As a general rule of thumb, you should risk no more than 1-2% of your account balance on a single trade. For example, if your account balance is $10,000, you can risk up to $200 on this trade. With 20x leverage, you can open a position worth $4,000 ($200 * 20). Targets: Your first target is at 12255, which corresponds to the level of previous support. Your second target is at Fibonacci retracement level 0.382, which corresponds to a price level of 12216. Your third target is at Fibonacci retracement level 0.5, which corresponds to a price level of 12110. Your final target is at Fibonacci retracement level 0.618, which corresponds to a price level of 11999. Exit Strategy: Once the price hits each target, you can take some profits off the table and adjust your stop loss to breakeven or slightly below it. For example, if the price hits the first target at 12255, you can sell half of your position and adjust your stop loss to 12480 (entry point) for the remaining half. If the price hits the second target at 12216, you can sell another quarter of your position and adjust your stop loss to 12500 for the remaining quarter. Similarly, if the price hits the third target at 12110, you can sell the remaining quarter of your position and adjust your stop loss to 12300 for a potential continuation trade. Note: This is just an example trade plan based on the information you provided, and it's not a financial advice. Please do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Always use appropriate risk management strategies, including stop losses, to protect your capital.
UShort
by flaavless
4
BTC outlookHere's a quick look at the 8 hr . BTC chart. As we can see, the price has been bouncing within a bigger broadening wedge and is currently retesting the bottom trendline. We should expect much lower prices if the price breaks below the trendline and support zone. There are some unfilled Fair value gaps between 20k and 18k. These gaps tend to get filled at some point! Also, the DXY is expected to rally from its current level - when the DXY goes up, the BTC price will go down! I firmly believe the bottom will be close to the 10-12k area. We have yet to see the last capitulation, IMO, yet! Trade Safe! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March 🗓️ 10 Mar: US Non-farm Payrolls 10 Mar: Mt. Gox Distribution 14 Mar: #CPI Data Release 15 Mar: #PPI Data Release 21/22 Mar: #FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
4
Bear Will Growl AgainIt ain't over folks. I see so much hopium and happy nonsense every day here. It ain't getting any higher. Stop smoking weed and sit up straight! Fact: No bear has ever ended with VIX <40. Ain't been north of 36 yet. Fact: Y2K bubble ended on a 900+ day bear. This one looks a lot like it, and is not half done yet, only 420+ days into it. Fact: Inflation remains unchecked after hiking rates nine times. Fact: PEs are lower and outlook has been cloudy at best. SPX at 4K PE is 21+ >> historic mean 16; median 15; stonks is overvalued and ERs point to contracting not growing. Real simple math: 21-16 = 5/15 => 30% discount coming. 4K*(-0.30) = (-1.2k) SPX is going to 3K, target 2800-3200. Fact: We are in QT NOT QE. Cost of making things, doing things, living is HIGHER and not going lower. Everything else is foolish hopium. Hopium: Tesla is going back to the Moon!! The silly euphoria returning to tech darlings is another warning sign. LOL Look at the retracements. Market stands at 50% retrace, and Tesla has got back to 50% of $400. Ripe for a short IMO. All is ready for the final massive dump into the crapper. If you don't 'feel comfy' selling short then GTFO and get in cash. GLTA, ur gonna need it.
TVC:SPX
by DaddySawbucks
13
XAUUSD - Short Term Bullish Momentum XAUUSD is currently showing signs of a short term bullish momentum. After showing a break of structure and reversing to the downside it looks like XAUUSD has met a nice level of support where it may continue showing bullish movement until it reaches around the 1900-1925 level where we should see a strong resistance. After reaching the 1900-1925 level we should see a strong bearish movement. To further this bearish sentiment this level would also be the second wave of the Elliott Wave Theory which would be followed by the 3rd wave. The 3rd wave is usually regarded as the most volatile and impulsive wave of the EWT which would be a great place to enter. The next form of support that can be seen after should be around the 1777.500 area. Upgrade your trading with me For FREE SIGNALS and if you would like to see updates on this idea and many more please follow: @wrightwayinvestments @wrightwayinvestments @wrightwayinvestments ✅ Hit the like button, and share for more!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WrightWayInvestments
US30 Dow Jones ShortDear friends and new viewers, So far it seems that the Dow Jones is experiencing some resistance on its current price pullback. IF we break through the 50-day MVA and break through this key level of resistance we could see a return in an upward trend. Even though it may seem tempting to enter a long here I would recommend a short instead since I am still bearish on the overall market. This could end up being a bull trap and could lead to a bearish outcome. With the REX not showing a buy signal and since we are below the 50-day MVA as well as Jerome Powell still hiking interest rates, I believe this will be a bearish outcome. Trade with caution, ~MC www.forbes.com (FED rate hike for March, the meeting occurred and rates did get hiked.)
UShort
by MasterChef23
#BTCUSDTMy hart says price will directly hit the 21700 price, and my brain also says the price need to do a correction movement to hit the upper side blue lines which placed on 23343 maximum upper line...price is doing a death cross on 4H chart and 21700 OB and 20750 Ob the last hope for bulls...unless we can see the price will kiss 12,000 level as soon as possible....in short term it will going to touch the upper key level of the falling wedge....all things can be happened or not.....
Short
by BabyRusk