BTCUSD - TIME TO SHORT?It appears that we are currently experiencing a similar pattern to the bull run we saw in the past. During this previous bull run, we saw a sharp decline from 65K to 29K. Currently, we are seeing a similar pattern with long positions being trapped at the top and many stops being placed below 20,4K.
If this pattern continues, we may see a decline towards the 20K psychological level, which would help to flush out leveraged long positions and start a new impulse from there. Additionally, there is an open gap at 20K which may also be filled.
Bearmarket
Very interesting Stock Another interesting stock, in June the moving average of 50 periods went below the moving average of 200 periods which creates what is called in technical analysis a dead cross, and since then the price was always under the moving average of 200 periods. Now the price reaches a price level of 57.68 already used in the past as support in May and in June 2021. The downtrend has started and there are many chances that will not stop, due to the financial situation and the spectrum of recession. Plus this stock start to rise in 2020 a period when the stock market was euphoric. My vision is short.
Timeline for the minor bull market (based on RUNE chart)RUNEUSDT chart gives a comprehensive outlook on when the current bear market can probably end and the interim (minor) bullmarket start.
I'm not speaking about the major bullmarket similar to 2020-2021, which obviously is determined by Bitcoin's halving cycles, but rather an interim smaller bullrun with lower highs, which are nevertheless enough to cause high retail demand and money flow.
The downtrend set by the highs of THORChain (Rune) intersects the 'projected' price of RUNE approximately in 6 months, forming a perfect double bottom. This is especially remarkable, since right now we are in an upthrust (bull trap, if we agree with this logic) which may lure many retailers in what they believe is a 'recovery', although it is not.
The fact the the line of the downtrend being projected further forms a second bottom mirroring the already formed one, made me think that this can be an indication of the end of the bear market (when the price breaks above the trendline).
Of course if you look at any other crypto chart, including BTC, you also will be able to see this ~160 day bottom we've gone through by now with a minor upthrust we're currently in, but RUNE is the first chart where I so a second visible confirmation in form of intersection between the end of the second bottom (not yet formed) and the projection of the trend line.
BTCUSDT Price $13,000, Channel Resistance| .786 Fibonacci| TrendEvening Traders,
Today’s analysis – BTCUSDT- trading at a clear resistance level where a rejection is plausible,
Poiints to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Channel high resistance
- Key swing high liquidity
- Rotation lower
BTCUSDT’s immediate price action is trading at a key inflection point that is in confluence with the channel high, liquidity point and the .786 Fibaoncci, this allows for a bearish bias.
The immediate objective is the channel mid, exceeding this point will accelerate price action towards the lower support.
Overall, in my opinion, BTCUSDT is a valid short with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
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“Win, loss whatever emerges in the short-term, place and manage your next trades untouched, unattached... always keeping your eyes on the long-term picture.”
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we are right at that same level in spx futes4037 is former r1 swing in wave, and bulls are in full control of that momentum with the breakout. there are two paths we could take. if bulls maintain that control of the 4037 level we will reac r1 soon, but back to swing p sooner if we lose it. scenario a coincides with extension, and scenario b is a continuation of b wave. im favoring the downside, but im not dedicated to that idea. specifically if we take out the highs of this futures session im adding, and if we resist from 4037 im continuing to sell. tsla, aapl and the like are great both ways.
MAJOR DROP JANUARY 2023 Crypto MARKET CAP 400 BILLIONHello, the Crypto Market cap is due to shed 50% or more in the beginning part of 2023 with a quick recovery after Q1 into Q2. At this moment the macros agree that we have one last leg down until the main BEAR MARKET dip which I estimate will be in January 2023. If you're longing here, you'll be in profit summer 2023 but if you're waiting to long then its good to wait. Every price from this post will cut in over 50% all cryptos within the month. This will align with the attached BITCOIN 2023 DIP CHART.
TARGET MARKET CAP BUY IN AT 350 BILLION - 400 BILLION
ENJOY and good luck!
ZIM: NEUTRAL with one Eye on China.During the last part of the year already passed, we saw a downward trend of this stock.
Many factors can associate with this downward trend, such as the decrease in demand for the transport of goods between Europe, USA, and China, and the news of the coming recession had led to the bear trend of this stock and its fall. Now the interest on this stock seems to be reducing and the movement of the price is no longer the same as before. We can see from the body of the candles, that is starting to be small, and the drop in the price is no longer intense as before.
Now the price is pressed in the area between the levels 18.68 and 16.64, which is in the phase of accumulation that can lead to a new trend, which is not possible to determine.
From my side the last level that the price can hit before the uptrend is 11.94, however, good attention to the news from the government of Beijing can be determined the future of transportation in the coming months and not only that.
DXY DUMPAll HTF from Weekly To Daily are Down trending
Price on the H4 and is ranging and i assume its all manipulation. Bonds are making a pullback due to interest rate hikes. but none the less price is still very very bearish. Even the USDJPY is on a pull back this confirms that the market is now risk on as Beta Currencies are taking a Dive too.
Looks like BTC is getting rejected just before the FOMC meeting!Here's a quick look at the 2 hr. BTC chart. As we can see, the price entered a strong order block, couldn't break through, and got rejected. The price was also forming the bearish rising wedge pattern, which now has broken to the downside. If the price doesn't hold above support zone 1, we will likely see support zone 2 at 18k-18.4k. The fair Value Gap will get filled at some point. This adds to the price breaking below support zone 1, thereby getting down to support zone 2!
The FOMC meeting is taking place on 1. February, and we should expect some volatility just before the meeting! Trade safe!
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What's a Fair Value Gap?:
A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders.
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
Next months expectations for Bitcoin $BTC / $USDT #Bitcoin
$BTC / $USDT
I am expecting a sideways movement, liquidating and stopping both sides (Shorts and Longs). Later in the end of Jan. or early Feb. to see a #Altcoin big rally, and there #crypto market might do a last dump before we end this bear market around March-April!
November Midterms + Bear Market Rally I believe we'll see a ferocious rally that will shock everyone and make everyone bullish again - but this will just be a bear market rally (this is my thinking unless we break below 800B)
There is still a very good chance we continue down towards 500B MC and sit there for the next 12-18 months but I am not leaning too heavily on the short side at the moment.
The democrats need something on their side, they don't have the market - everything comes down to whether they raise rates at the next meeting.
100bp points increase = market dump
75bp points increase = market dump
50bp points increase = market rally's hard
Even the most bearish people agree we're due for a rally - even if it is a bear market rally - if we do get this rally it'll be the last one until we go into a long bear market/depression (this will be your last chance to exit your trades in crypto/equities)
Bitcoin 2018 Bear Market v 2022 Bear MarketThere is a striking similarity between the 2018 and 2022 bear markets in Bitcoin as illustrated on this chart. This is the same thing I have been discussing for months now on Twitter and YouTube while so many other large influencer accounts were screaming that it HAD to go below $12K. While there is no guarantee that the low is in yet (there are no guarantees in trading except that you WILL lose money at times), there are a number of signals that it very well may be. This is just one of them.
Break out impulsively above the weekly pivot and there should be no looking back.
Bitcoin, END OF PUMP SOON (?BTCUSDT 1D,
We have been down-trending recently, broke a structure to the downside, recently we have seen a LARGE mouvement to the upside out of no where, we have filled point of interest, and 0.618 Fibonacci, soon we might liquidate the longers and continue going downwards until we retest the monthly level of support.
Share this with your friends! Stay tuned for more.
BTC Outlook 2023-2025Fresh new data and more information of significant factors brings me to a new deliberate prediction.
The corrective wave that we are in is not a usual corrective wave. It could make twice as long as the two previous corrective waves in 2014 and 2018, an ABC move from a larger degree of Elliot Wave (Could be a wave 4 from the whole BTC movement since 2009).
Currently we are in a bear market rally that potentially will bring BTC up to 25k, from there the corrective move will continue to the bottom which potentially at 8k in early 2024.
I still believe potential Fed pivot will be around Q4 2023-Q1 2024 and inflation at that time will probably sits around 2-3%. 3% is good enough to restart the Quantitative Easing.
Due to the longer corrective wave, 4th BTC Halving in Q2 2024 will occur in the 1st wave, not the same with the last three halvings that occured in the 3rd wave.
This also means that we are approximately one year away from the beginning of a new bull market that potentially will make BTC going up to 140k or 1600% from 8k. Expect more business entities to collapse, more lay-offs and rising unemployment which also means rising in crime rates. Take care and survive!
heres a weekly level i would be comfortable longim really not interested in longer term buy situations in aapl or the like until we start confirming the broader trend reversal. im sensing that the general motivation for this follow up bounce is the corrective wave that similarly happened in the last monthly retracement to the upside. the bear market resumed then, and it could now as well. if bulls are going to use this trend to thier advantage i see that the only option is selling, and that goes along with the conjecture that we will see lower prices at aome point in the future "so why not now".
Retrace complete/Further downI kept seeing everyone thinks bitcoin just bottomed.. ( no not quite yet) this what happens people get too greedy.
As bear market still going and still on the move, Feds are still increasing terminal rates and interest rates because the inflation still remained high and not cooling down enough; big happens the Feds will get aggressive and too aggressive until ceiling hits and see economy will break as fundamental Recession is coming sometime around 2023.
Now let’s talk about bitcoin. The retrace is complete nearly hit 20K my analysis had been correct but I might be or be wrong is the retrace isn’t over. As over 1.4 trillion had been wiped out value from the market; bitcoin haven’t reached the potential bottomed yet.. 21-20K has stronger resistance zones but should expect the huge rejection; if I’m wrong then We will see double top form or if should continue the retrace to make the crash sight.
For the bottomed 14-16K is not the bottom; don’t fall for the Trap.
Because things going on the economy and Feds still working on bringing the inflation down and Fundamental Recession is coming sometime around this year. Should expect Rate cuts sometime in late 2023 or Middle 4th Quarter in 2023 so final leg down can happen.
Even if your profit still in green I highly suggest to sell it off until we hit the Top; remember the bear market isn’t over..even tho could be a long term consolidation could happen so please be very careful we still have a lot more to go. Experts sees bitcoin will bottom around 12K but mort said 11-10K zone even bigger surprises can go even lower around $5000,$5,500.
As I see still 12-10K as a bitcoin bottom.
SP500 | SPY - Bottom for the bearmarketIf we look at the rising trendline from 2008 you can see that we have a strong support there around 320 SPY . The fibonachis line up pretty well with that too. We also have strong support around that level from the coronadays.
If you measure in M2 supply you can clearly see that we should atleast go down to 2000 levels, low as 2008 may be a overreaction. With the current market condition, high rates + high inflation + energy crisis + credit card debt at ATH I believe we should go lower down.
RSI does also point that we should go lower if we are going into a similiar bearmarket as 00 and 08. The drop from top to bottom will be lower than 00 and 08 but there is many more people invested in the market today than it was at that time, which will make a difference. We also dropped 2 years ago during covid, and that was a massive drop, due to that drop we may not need to drop as much as 50% this time.
During the coming earnings this Q1, We will see many companies with lower earnings . Due to lower spending from customers, expensive goods and a smaller workforce.
320 SPY may be the bottom and that is where I will start buy. The road to that bottom could vary, The potential for more upside is still likely but if so we need to break the decending trendline which will be very hard to break.
NFA
DYOR
Good Luck
/aFinancialMind
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