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Bearmarket

Still bearish outlook in bigger pictureLast week after a bearish movement gold rejected around psycological support level 2000, wich is also daily support level. GOld managed to move around 380pips without a proper rejections at certain resistance levels. Posible gold moved on fundamentals because off wars going on around the world. GOld remains a save asset. Technical in the bigger picture were still in a bearish market. From my perspective i see 2 scenerio's. Next week we will focus on selling the market either from resistance level 2032 or wait for gold to climb towards around trend resistance level(yellow line) In the daily timeframe we broke out off the support and is currently retesting this zone. But we should not enter on such high timeframe and look for confirmations in lowertime frame such as m30,m15 and m5.(See updated post for the daily timeframe overview) resistance: 2032, 2040, 2050, 2070 Support: 2025, 2016, 2005, 2000
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ForexGoldIntraday
Bitcoin bear market is overI think we have made the bottom for bitcoin at 15-16k area and now we are in the accumulation phase of the crypto cycle. It is hard to say how long it will take, but I am more convinced towards the accumulation phase based on my analysis of the weekly chart. There are 3 major occasions during which we have tanked below weekly 21 moving average and immediately seen a spike in volume and came back above it. Every single time that this has happened, we have made new all time highs! I have also shared my thoughts on what will happen in short term going into 3rd May 2023 fomc rate decision.
Long
by chartmaster1991
New bottom in Q1 2024In recent weeks, it appears that market makers have managed to generated significant hype around positive news to get the market excited. However, it looks like they immediately capitalize on this momentum and sell off their bags. A good example of this behavior is when NASDAQ:NVDA last week reached alot of liquidity above $500, only to then dump. If we align the speed of the market pullback with the resistance line indicated in yellow, the possibility arises for a new bottom in Q1 2024.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by arcone
2
Bitcoin Market State - June 2022Looks like our 4 year bear market is being accelerated. The base action plan has not changed, we're still unloading between Dec 2022 - Jan 2023, however the price targets are likely different. I don't think that Bitcoin has a high probability of making a new ATH from here in the coming few years, most likely it will peak at around 37k-42k in December / Jan, before continuing the bear trend down to 7.2k-7.6k. That said, I won't exclude the possibility of an alt-season during this year (2022), before the BTC bear market takes hold in full force. We may well see some Alts hitting new heights before the year ends. After that, bear market across the board. -Hawk
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Alien_Algorithms
Its time for SOL searching! I love the smell of napalm in the morning! Solana Compass data shows that the Solana network Epoch 370 will unlock 49,973,143 SOL. At the current price of $18.82, the unlocked Sol is worth more than $900 million, which will happen in 20 hoursAfter what happened to FTX and FTT the next victim is Solana and its ready for lower levels targets 17.5 , 17 , 16 and 15. 16$ is very important support and if it lose that area then be ready for 14 and 13$
Short
by moonypto
4
The Dead Cat Bounce on the JSE ALSI 40 & why trading is so hardYou know why bear markets are so hard to trade? Because when the market bounces up (just a little), some stocks fly up. ANd this results in stop losses getting hit, before the market comes back down. That's why we need to determine the volatility movement within the indices and stocks and WIDEN stop losses and take profits - to not be victim of these short term bear market rallies. It's probably one of the most difficult aspects to getting right... We clearly see the JSE ALSI is in the bear market with the diagonal resistance along with price below the 200MA... The best we can do is short markets BUT also go long and hedge a few markets just in case we have a relief rally to make up for the stop losses hit with the shorts... That's the way of trading well.
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
Paypal Close To Dropping Through $50!Apple's foray into the payment industry is impacting PayPal's stock price, causing concern among investors. Analysts are closely monitoring PayPal's third-quarter earnings report to assess the company's current standing and future prospects. Despite projected earnings of $1.16 per share, PayPal's stock has been struggling, experiencing a 32% drop since the beginning of the year, despite positive earnings reports. So far this year, the stock has declined by 28%, with a 13% drop in October alone. This downward trend raises doubts about PayPal's ability to recover, especially since it lacks strong historical support levels. While the stock may find some support around the $50 mark, a significant rebound is necessary for a complete recovery. In fact, to reach its all-time high, the stock would need to surge by a staggering 505%. Another significant obstacle is surpassing last year's low of $66. The upcoming third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release on November 1st, will be crucial in determining PayPal's near-term outlook and its ability to navigate the challenges within the industry.
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by Sublime_Trading
Bear market rally before the crash? We stated that since the price broke below the 200MA, that we entered and have remained in a bear market. And during bear trends, the market tends to zig zag along the way with strong downside pushes... Right now, the price is heading up to retest the most recent resistance. This is normally, where traders and retail traders will buy in and believe the market is heading up. But this is where we need to be cautious with our decisions. Yes we will see upside in many stocks, but we mustn't think this is the start of the bull market UNTIL we see the price go above the 200MA... The target for now remains at 56,483
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
TAke profits from longs on Meta Sure, here's the analysis of Meta (formerly known as Facebook) based on the information you provided: Stock Performance: Meta has recently experienced a stock price increase of over 160%. This is a significant rise and may indicate that investors were enthusiastic, and the stock's performance exceeded typical expectations. This is an important factor that can impact the future stock price. Overbought Zone: Your mention of a mildly overbought condition on the weekly chart is important. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a useful indicator for identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the market. If RSI reaches values above 70, it can signify that the stock is overbought and may be due for a correction. Bearish RSI Divergence: The formation of a bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart is a crucial signal. A bearish divergence suggests that the strength of the uptrend is weakening and could be the beginning of a reversal. This is an important signal for technical analysts, indicating a potential price decline in the future. Profit-Taking: Meta has seen substantial growth since its last decline. When investors witness such significant growth, they may be inclined to start taking profits. This can lead to increased selling of shares and a decline in the stock price. Based on this information, it might be expected that the price of Meta's stock could decline in the near future. However, it's important to note that financial markets are unpredictable and can be influenced by many other factors, including news, geopolitical events, and market trends. It's important to consider that investing based on technical analysis is just one of many approaches to investing. Before making any investment decisions, it's advisable to consult with a financial advisor and consider all available information about the company and the market.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by RC_CRYPTO_SURFER
FNGD retrace to $8.50 before target of $10.51, coil/fakeout/pumpFNGD to go back down to $8.50 before target of $10.51 Nxt I'm expecting a little retracement back to $8.51 with buy limits set from 8.88 down to 8.51 Take Profits at $10.17 and $10.51 Expect to retrace again and coil up. People will be talking about bears taking over, but the Santa rally will cheer bulls up and give them hope... meanwhile we are playing both sides. Into 2024: Due to everything going on and how much this market has tripped everyone up and out, I expect a double fakey to occur. FNGD will appear to be pumping (bears winning on FNGU and S&P) then the bulls will appear to take control and the descending triangle on the S&P will appear to have a breakout to the upside only to fail. People will say its due to a news event, but the Operator/Fed is planning this. Equities will retreat to safety of Bonds. S&P will Fall, and lay off employees, people will beg for the Fed to cut rates and when they do Bonds will explode then Gold then after Equities and Crypto Capitulation we will rebuild on the scorched earth. BUY BUY BUY WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS IN MARCH/APRIL 2024!
AMEX:FNGDLong
by itsmrpizzatoyou
S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
Bitcoin Market State - October 2023Following my previous update in June 2022, Bitcoin has indeed carried out most of the dead cat bounce that I've been expecting. Granted, it took longer than I thought, but the levels are still valid. This is just an update that we are indeed on track with the plan, anticipating to enter the 35k-37k price zone before the bear market continues. This zone is a strong psychological pivot, as many bear ideas become invalidated, and may bull ideas become confirmed. As some would call it, a max-pain scenario for a top. Following that, my analysis suggests that we will be seeing much lower prices before 2025. Currently I am targeting $8,800 and $5,555 for accumulation zones.
by Alien_Algorithms