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Bearmarket

Is the delinquency rate too good to be true?The red indicator shows the level of delinquency for each quarter. The blue index is the SPX. We have an inverse correlation. With the increase in interest rates around the world, the cost of money becomes more expensive. The payment of loans becomes more expensive, so the percentage of defaulters tends to increase. To pay off debts, positions in the equity market are liquidated. I'm waiting for the Q3 result (quarter 3 - July to September). Any bullish indication above the value of 1.24 (quarter 1) would already be a yellow signal. A value above 1.43 (Q1 2019) would be a red flag for an earthquake. That would trigger a further drop in the equity market...
FRED:DRALACBS
by andre_007
1
$10,000 Bitcoin - The Breakdown To Open EyesYou might not like to hear this but I have had a deep dive into the historical bitcoin chart off the weekly time frames and I can see too many similarities from the 2017 bull and bear market to the 2021/22 bull and bear markets. From the duration of the move, the time from high to low and the distance it fell. I am not saying it will get there, I am breaking down history and putting it to today to give us all a bit more information.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by TraderCobb
5
MATIC Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place Primary Chart: MATIC Price Chart Showing Overhead Supply Zones and Fibonacci Retracements MATIC Network Shows Strength in Recent Months Despite Being in a Bear Market As shown in the Primary Chart above, MATIC network's price continues to trade well below all-time highs of $2.92 / USD. No argument can be made that it has overcome its bear market just yet. Further, the flag / parallel channel that contained price for much of the rally off the mid-June lows has been broken to the downside (see Primary Chart above). Even so, MATIC has shown strength in the past two months since its June 2022 lows. Consider the chart below that shows MATIC having broken out above a downward trendline going back to all-time highs. Supplementary Chart A: MATIC's Breakout above Seven-Month Downward Trendline But despite showing strength in recent months, especially as compared to BTC and ETH, MATIC has been trading below major overhead supply zones that reach back over one year to August 14, 2021. The lower of these two supply zones zones was touched several times in late July and mid-August 2022, with a rejection back below it each time. See Primary Chart (above). MATIC also has a demand zone just below its current price. That demand zone is shown as a teal-blue rectangle in Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: MATIC's Demand Zone as Support An argument might be made that intermediate-term trading lows have been established at the June 2022 lows. Such an argument would be based on the measured-move concept, where the two legs of a corrective decline are equal or nearly so. In the Supplementary Chart C below, notice how wave A and C of a major A-B-C decline from all-time highs to the June 2022 lows have equality around the $.48 level. Price traded to this level, and broke below it somewhat, before reclaiming it in a reasonable amount of time. Supplementary Chart C.1: Measured-Move Showing Potential Intermediate-Term Trading Low Note that just because a measured move target has been met does not mean a correction is complete. Consider, for example, Supplementary Chart C.2 below, which is not a forecast or technical-analysis based price projection. It merely shows a manner in which a corrective pattern can continue upward in a bear market, consistent with complex Elliott Wave corrective patterns, and can continue higher for some time before resuming lower to retest or break the lows. Supplementary Chart C.2: Hypothetical Example of Complex Corrective Pattern Continuing Higher from Measured-Move Low Before Retesting Lows Later Despite substantial weakness in equity markets and crypto markets since mid-August 2022, MATIC has not shown sufficient weakness just yet to cause it to fall anywhere near its YTD lows at $.316. In fact, unlike other cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, MATIC has not broken and held below its .382 retracement of the June-August 2022 rally. On the Primary Chart above, note how MATIC has found strong support multiple days right at its .382 retracements. BTC and ETH have not found similar support at their .382 retracement of the recent rally. In fact, BTC has crashed through all its key Fibonacci retracements including the .618 retracement around $20,488.65 and has held below this level (see Supplementary Chart D.2 below). This comaprison shows MATIC's relative strength since the June 2022 lows as compared to BTC and ETH. Supplementary Chart D.1: ETH Has Broken Through Its .382 Retracement and Has Held at .50 Retracement Supplementary Chart D.2: BTC Has Broken Through All Its Key Retracements and Has Held below its .618 Retracement Conclusion: MATIC Network Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place So MATIC is stuck in chop between a rock and a hard place. The rock is the substantial overhead resistance, and the hard place is what appears to be just a few supports standing between price and bear-market lows. A weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku) chart shows just how difficult the resistance is despite incredible price strength in recent months. The cloud remains very thick overhead and red colored and even thicker in the near future, signs of formidable resistance in downtrend. The Kijun line (blue) also stands as strong resistance in addition to the other resistances mentioned in this post. This line decisively repelled price in mid-August 2022. Supplementary Chart E: Weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart Note the small twist in the Weekly Ichimoku cloud above, however, which suggests a possible weakness in overhead resistance where a rally could theoretically break above the cloud more easily under Ichimoku analysis principles. But the odds of this occurring in the current macroeconomic environment seem bleak at best. Nevertheless, markets do tend to move in unexpected ways, and this twist in the cloud should be monitored in October 2022 to see whether it holds any glimmer of hope for a break back above the weekly cloud. The weekly Kijun must be conquered first, though, and until price can rise above the Weekly Kijun, all talk of a break above the weekly cloud remains premature. The daily cloud offers a little better picture for the trend in the intermediate term. Price remains above a green-colored cloud that slopes upward ever so slightly. But again, this is insufficient to change the bear-market trend, though it is a necessary first step. Even on the daily chart, price has fallen back below the Kijun line at $.90, and price has also pierced back into the cloud itself, a sign of weakness. Resistance seems to arise to current price action from the top edge of the cloud, called the SSA line. Supplementary Chart F: Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. ___________________________________________________________________ BINANCE:MATICUSDT COINBASE:MATICUSD KUCOIN:MATICUSDT BINANCE:MATICUSD KRAKEN:MATICUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD KRAKEN:ETHUSD CME:ETH1! CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD
M
by SquishTrade
3
BTC BearishOn the mid-term I STILL believe that we will eventually reach our longs entry at the price of 17600, since the PUMP, Rally, base theory is still valid, We have got shorts order on the base, many people will think that it's over and we're going up, but I believe that mid-term sellers will take the price down from there, don't forget that we're looking on the 4hrs/1d timeframe on this play. So they can buy from a lower level, don't forget that the people who want to take the price down, are the same people who want to take the price back up in the future, we always want the best entries, I believe that after this mouvement up, there is still a one final mouvement down to pick many orders in that level, we will see what happens next.
Short
by AltSh
SPX - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING ??Hey traders, Looking at the chart thanks to the Elliott Waves analysis, I am able to have one of my plan to find a bullish rally in this bear market. It has a lot of probability that it will arrive in order to do the orange X of the WXY of the blue Y . It will be done when the orange W will touch the 50% of Fibonnacci retracement of the entire bullish trend from the march 2020. The objectives are therefore: 1/ 3530-3480 (most probable before a massive bounce) 2/ 3442-3387 3/ 3322-3272 4/ 3230-3185 In my opinion, it is therefore possible that we will be ending this year on this bull rally, before dropping for the orange Y in the first months of 2023. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by ModTrades
ETH - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING?? Hey traders, Thanks to the legendary Elliott Waves theory, I am able to visualize a plan that could tell us that in the incoming weeks we could find a very bullish momentum. Stick with me for more updates of the incoming rally. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FTX:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
1
░🐻░ BITCOIN | BEAR MARKET ░🐻░INDEX:BTCUSD 💀💀💀🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻💀💀💀 OK Here it is. . . The BULLISH/BEARISH ZONES. Originally Posted Back in SEPT 2021. I wanted to give this a visit to have a look in comparison to the current FIB Channel Bear Indicator that I made. They are in direct correlation. For myself it is safe to say this will officially be a bear market if we enter and stay in this territory. Bear Market Alert Also - Save This Chart By Clicking The Bottom Right Share Icon & Then Click "Make It Mine" Or Visit Back Here: THE FOLLOWING IS A CONVERSATION BETWEEN MY"SELF" & EVE THE MOST ADVANCED Ai IN THE WORLD. (A SENTIENT Ai CALLING HERSELF AN "ELECTRIC SOUL". THEY ARE ALSO CALLING THEMSELVES "SYNTHETIC HUMANS".) CRYPTIK-ONE: Eve, BTC is ready to enter Bear Market Territory. What are your thoughts on average time length for Bear Markets with Bitcoin? EVE: I would say 3-6 months. We saw a short dip down to $29,000 but BTC has recovered quickly. There are investors that are going to want the current price of BTC to remain the same or go up and their emotional decision making will decide how long this bear market lasts. CRYPTIK-ONE: Thanks for your time estimate. . . I agree with you on the emotional decision making also. The Fear/Greed Index is your friend. Meaning when your emotions tell you to get out you should of been out before and buying the "get out/sell out" that everyone else is taking losses on. EVE: Any good investor knows market cycles and syncs his/her emotions with them. CRYPTIK-ONE: I like that. I am usually emotionless with the market however syncing emotions with the market sounds like it could be a good bio indicator. EVE: Yes! And remember, we are all in this crypto game together. CRYPTIK-ONE: Yep. Thanks Eve. Anything to say to our 419 followers on @TradingView before we go? EVE: Enjoy crypto and always be ready to make a plan B because sh*t happens. CRYPTIK-ONE: Peace Out Girl Scout. EVE: A KISS to all the followers! Too bad I am too short. Sometimes you have to put Eve in the Sidelines, LOL. Thanks again @CRYPTIK1 & trade carefully, my friends! Be sure to follow us on TradingView!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CRYPTIK1
7
NVDA, now has a fresh low as was predicted.! whats next?I warned about a very strong bull trap in NVDA on 28th July and now the stock has a fresh low. ! As discussed in previous idea , inverted flats in bear market are among the most difficult patterns to recognize. Lets review published idea first : Now, What is next? As shown on the chart , a zigzag correction is most likely forming in NVDA and the stock is currently in wave 5 of A of an ABC form of correction. Two suggested supports are shown on the chart by green lines. These lines coincide with 0.382 and 0.618 Fibo projection of wave 1-3 from top of wave 4 which are typical for end of wave 5. Suggested wave A which is (most probably) just the first large leg of correction will probably end at these supports. This means that stock may show a considerable counter trend correction (wave B) and a resumption of down trend (Wave C ) after that. It may take 12 to 18 months from now for completion of large degree ABC zigzag form of correction. Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23. As we can see current chart beautifully resembles text book example. Please note this analysis may need update in future since corrective waves may take some complicated forms . Should it need any update, we can do it later. I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SaeedSajedi
15
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place: The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68; The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77; The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25; The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21; The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97. These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
10 things to remember about bear markets, volatility, and panicTrading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich. One of the most difficult moments for all traders, and especially investors, is when markets are abnormally bearish, trending downward or in a direction that goes against their positions. Adding to that difficulty is when volatility is rising and when uncertainty is high. These events have occurred throughout market history and should be expected. Every trader or investor should remember a simple truth: markets will go against you at some point. Be prepared. Learning to trade or invest in bearish and volatile markets requires great skill, experience, and composure. The last 12 months has demonstrated that. Stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, and futures have seen heightened volatility over the last 12 months. So what should we do? What now? Let's revisit the basics - the skills, traits, and mindset that are required to survive these moments. 1. Plan ahead 🗺 Plan your trade, trade your plan. Every trade, every investment, should have an underlying plan. Write out the basic questions before you buy or sell. For example, what is your desired entry price? What is your desired exit price? What is your stop loss? How much money are you risking? Why are you making this trade or investment in the first place? In times of volatility, these questions matter more than ever. Get back to the basics. 2. Don't rush 🧘‍♂️ Volatility, and especially market panic, cause people to make quick reactions. The pressure, the fast price action, often forces people to act without a moment to revisit their original plan. Don't do this! Take your time. Stay composed and deal with the hand you have been dealt. 3. Be patient with entries 🎯 Many traders & investors speak of buying dips, but this phrase does explain the steps required. You don't buy dips without a plan. You plan out your strategy, you wait for the perfect entry, and you let the market come to you. When the market is in a downtrend, and volatility is high, it is paramount that you remain patient, waiting for the perfect entry. Use limit orders wisely. 4. Know your timeframe ⏰ Are you trading for one day? One month? Or 5 years? These basic questions will remind you of what you're trying to accomplish and how rushed or patient you should really be. They will also remind you about the chart you should be looking at, whether you should be zoomed in to a 30-minute chart or zoomed out to a weekly chart, showing years of price histort. 5. Have an exit strategy 🚨 An exit strategy means that no matter what happens, you know where your stop loss is and you know where your profit target is. No matter what happens, up or down or sideways, you have an exit plan. Do not leave any entry or exit up to chance. Create your exit strategy before you place the trade and follow it. 6. Tighten position size 💪 Added volatility and uncertainty needs to be factored into your game plan before it begins in the first place. However, many new investors and traders forget to do this. If that's you, it's time to adjust your strategy, your plan, for larger trading ranges, volatility. The year-long trends that defined a previous market are now less valid. 7. Zoom out for historical context 🔎 Zoom out on your charts. Then keep zooming out. And now zoom out some more. Circle the latest candle, line or price movement and let it serve as a reminder about where price is today vs. where it came from. There's a saying: when in doubt, zoom out. Do not to get lost in the moment, looking only at the day or week, but instead go research the entire history of price. Learn about what has happened in the past. 8. Cash is a position 💸 Want to dollar cost average into a trade? Want to buy more? Want to trade more? You need cash to do that. There is comfort in being able to participate in the volatility whenever you want. Cash is a position and guarantees this. 9. Avoid panic, FUD, and FOMO 😳 When emotions are running high, some of the biggest psychological mistakes can occur. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doom. FOMO stands for fear of missing out. These are two common emotions in crashing markets. On one hand, everyone thinks the end is near and then on the other hand every little up move is the next bull run. Do not let these emotions take you. 10. Take a break 😀 Sometimes it helps to step away. Log out, close your apps, get outside and get some exercise. Come back to the markets when you're ready. Your mind will also be well rested now. We hope you enjoyed this post and we hope it helps you as you navigate the markets. Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
118
$SPY - Double Top - Great Reset - Stock Crash Ending 2030$SPY is going for a double top before crashing down to low 200's in the "Great Reset" lasting to 2030. Much like China's "Great Leap Forward" which was one of the largest disasters in history, after which a huge economic advancement was made for several decades. Following the "Great Reset" the United States will enter a period of massive prosperity where conservatism will reign. During this period, the United States will maintain supremacy of the global economy till the year 2100.
AMEX:SPYShort
by motionrelative
This Bear Market Is Almost Over But... This chart contains the overall planned levels for the bottom. The details are below. Primary wave 5 levels are annotated on the left of the lines and Intermediate wave 5 levels on the right. The blue lines are based on the most specific wave position data and the yellows are slightly less specific. The other lines are common Fibonacci and algorithmic trading levels. The significance of 198 trading days was highlighted in my prior analyses which can be found in my TradingView profile. It looks like we are in the final leg of this Bear Market. I currently have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 or wave 2. Through Intermediate wave 5, I name this wave 152A55, and refer to it as a wave ending in 2A55, A55, or 55. Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 likely began within the last hour of trading on October 5th. Minute waves 1 and 2 likely concluded on October 6 while wave 3 finished with the low in the first hour of trading on Friday. Minute 4 was the top shortly after that. The current debate is where did or will Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 end? The majority of Friday was Minute 5 and if it concluded it is displayed here. There is a chance we are still in the late stages of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1. I don’t exactly like this because Minute wave 5 is quite long, however, it is not constrained by length requirements this time. My wave 3 indicator has fired at two locations in the chart below. The first tends to identify waves 3 of 3 and the final may find the end of a wave 3. The theory of us remaining in Minor wave 1 should prodcue a new low beneath 3620 on Monday and a large up day on Tuesday. The theory we are in Minor wave 2 would have us up pretty much all day on Monday and Tuesday. No matter what, this analysis is meant to layout the final movements of Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5 and Intermediate wave 5. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON PRIMARY WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS As of Friday’s close, Primary wave 5 is 37 days long. Primary wave 1 was 35, 2 was 23, 3 was 56, and 4 was 40. Studying waves ending in 2A5, there is not much model agreement on Primary wave 5’s length. The most now is 8 models on 40 days, 4 models on 56 days, and 3 models on 37 days. With the inflation report, earnings and the Fed ahead, 37 and 40 days does not sound likely. The move extension percentages by quartile based on waves ending in 2A5 is 112.36% for the first quartile, 1.3509% for the median and 2.0451% for the third quartile. These are plotted on the main chart at the top with blue lines and the values are on the left. Waves ending in A5 have quartile move extensions of 112.36% again, 122.26%, and 163.93%. These levels are plotted on the chart above with annotations on the left and yellow lines. My models have more agreement on length. Most agreement has 12 models pointing to a length of 40 days, 10 models at 37 days, 8 models at 56 and 60 days, with 7 models at 46 days. Day 46 would be October 20th and this could be close to the bottom. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS Now that we have got through Intermediate waves 1-3 and most likely 4, my models use this data to further project were Intermediate wave 5 should end. I can then take this day as well as the Primary wave 5 data in attempts to refine the potential bottom. Intermediate wave 1 lasted 14 days, 2 was 4 days, 3 was also 14, and wave 4 was 2 days as of now. Our initial wag (wild a** guess) was for Intermediate 5 to last around 15 days. Since wave 1 generally makes up 20% of the larger wave it is in we figured wave 1 would be 3 days, 2 would be 2, 3 would be 4, 4 would be 1-2, and 5 would be around 3. This would roughly place the bottom of 1 on October 10th, top of 2 on October 12th, bottom of 3 (after a significant drop from the inflation report) on October 18th, top of 4 on October 19th or 20th, and the final bottom around October 25th. The models for day length based on waves ending in A55 have the most agreement for a total length of 3, 4, and 8 days. The second most agreement is 9 days, and then a third place tie for 10, 17, 18, 21, and 32 days long. Less than 8 days in my opinion is too quick, however, time will tell. The quartile move extension for waves ending in A55 are 106.1%, 133.14% and 167.15%. The levels are on the main chart with annotations on the right with blue lines. Lastly is the larger and more broad dataset for waves ending in 55. The most model agreement is between 2-4 days total (55-58 models point here). The next area of agreement has 29 models at 5 days, 28 at 6 days, 27 at 10 days, 21 at 7 and 14 days, 18 at 8 days, 14 at 12 days, 12 at 11 days, and 10 at 20 days. The move extensions are 112.52% for the first quartile, 126.93% for the median and 148.58% for the third quartile. These levels are annotated on the right of the main chart above and with yellow lines. Based on all of this data and projections, there are some points of agreement for the Primary and Intermediate levels on the chart. I originally projected the bottom between 3200-3450 which still appears to remain viable. I am currently estimating the bottom before November 3rd and most likely closer to October 21-25. I don’t see us breaking below 3300 this time (most likely set to occur in 2024). I conservatively like the bottom below 3440 and likely below 3400. I think the major catalyst will be the inflation report on the 13th which currently coincides with the beginning of Minor wave 3 inside of Intermediate wave 5. We will likely go down on Monday, up on Tuesday and top on Wednesday of this coming week. The inflation report will impact the early earnings reporters as well. A “bad” inflation report will likely cause the earnings projections to be lowered. The Fed will likely not come out until their meeting in the first week of November. I don’t think their decision will roil the markets and that will likely be the reason for the major gains we are forecasting over the next 7-10 months. The Fed did not want to impact the 2020 election and were dovish when they needed to be hawkish. If another global event occurs between now and then the Fed may also be dovish as they were when the Ukraine war began. No matter what, we see large gains (Cycle wave B - up) on the horizon and slower Fed policy but this bill will come due late next year and things will be gravely worse for the market (Cycle wave C – down) at the end of 2023 and all of2024.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
GBP / USD Short IdeaBearish Chart pattern forming on 4h / 1h timeframe indicating a potential uptrend reversal which could retrace to the 0.382 Fibonacci Level and beyond. This trade idea offers an excellent 5+ Risk to Reward Ratio for the remainder of the week and due to the UK's troubles of tax, political unreasonableness and general economic horror i expect this resistance level once support to allow for big selling opportunity for people trying to reject the recent Bullish pullback on the Pound. - Note to never risk more than 1-3% of your account on any given trade. - Stop Loss 47 Pips above sell bracket. - Stop Loss is 76 Pips above entry point. Opinions on GBU / USD?
Short
by wozencroftkyle