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Bearmarket

NVDA, now has a fresh low as was predicted.! whats next?I warned about a very strong bull trap in NVDA on 28th July and now the stock has a fresh low. ! As discussed in previous idea , inverted flats in bear market are among the most difficult patterns to recognize. Lets review published idea first : Now, What is next? As shown on the chart , a zigzag correction is most likely forming in NVDA and the stock is currently in wave 5 of A of an ABC form of correction. Two suggested supports are shown on the chart by green lines. These lines coincide with 0.382 and 0.618 Fibo projection of wave 1-3 from top of wave 4 which are typical for end of wave 5. Suggested wave A which is (most probably) just the first large leg of correction will probably end at these supports. This means that stock may show a considerable counter trend correction (wave B) and a resumption of down trend (Wave C ) after that. It may take 12 to 18 months from now for completion of large degree ABC zigzag form of correction. Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23. As we can see current chart beautifully resembles text book example. Please note this analysis may need update in future since corrective waves may take some complicated forms . Should it need any update, we can do it later. I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SaeedSajedi
15
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place: The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68; The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77; The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25; The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21; The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97. These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
10 things to remember about bear markets, volatility, and panicTrading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich. One of the most difficult moments for all traders, and especially investors, is when markets are abnormally bearish, trending downward or in a direction that goes against their positions. Adding to that difficulty is when volatility is rising and when uncertainty is high. These events have occurred throughout market history and should be expected. Every trader or investor should remember a simple truth: markets will go against you at some point. Be prepared. Learning to trade or invest in bearish and volatile markets requires great skill, experience, and composure. The last 12 months has demonstrated that. Stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, and futures have seen heightened volatility over the last 12 months. So what should we do? What now? Let's revisit the basics - the skills, traits, and mindset that are required to survive these moments. 1. Plan ahead 🗺 Plan your trade, trade your plan. Every trade, every investment, should have an underlying plan. Write out the basic questions before you buy or sell. For example, what is your desired entry price? What is your desired exit price? What is your stop loss? How much money are you risking? Why are you making this trade or investment in the first place? In times of volatility, these questions matter more than ever. Get back to the basics. 2. Don't rush 🧘‍♂️ Volatility, and especially market panic, cause people to make quick reactions. The pressure, the fast price action, often forces people to act without a moment to revisit their original plan. Don't do this! Take your time. Stay composed and deal with the hand you have been dealt. 3. Be patient with entries 🎯 Many traders & investors speak of buying dips, but this phrase does explain the steps required. You don't buy dips without a plan. You plan out your strategy, you wait for the perfect entry, and you let the market come to you. When the market is in a downtrend, and volatility is high, it is paramount that you remain patient, waiting for the perfect entry. Use limit orders wisely. 4. Know your timeframe ⏰ Are you trading for one day? One month? Or 5 years? These basic questions will remind you of what you're trying to accomplish and how rushed or patient you should really be. They will also remind you about the chart you should be looking at, whether you should be zoomed in to a 30-minute chart or zoomed out to a weekly chart, showing years of price histort. 5. Have an exit strategy 🚨 An exit strategy means that no matter what happens, you know where your stop loss is and you know where your profit target is. No matter what happens, up or down or sideways, you have an exit plan. Do not leave any entry or exit up to chance. Create your exit strategy before you place the trade and follow it. 6. Tighten position size 💪 Added volatility and uncertainty needs to be factored into your game plan before it begins in the first place. However, many new investors and traders forget to do this. If that's you, it's time to adjust your strategy, your plan, for larger trading ranges, volatility. The year-long trends that defined a previous market are now less valid. 7. Zoom out for historical context 🔎 Zoom out on your charts. Then keep zooming out. And now zoom out some more. Circle the latest candle, line or price movement and let it serve as a reminder about where price is today vs. where it came from. There's a saying: when in doubt, zoom out. Do not to get lost in the moment, looking only at the day or week, but instead go research the entire history of price. Learn about what has happened in the past. 8. Cash is a position 💸 Want to dollar cost average into a trade? Want to buy more? Want to trade more? You need cash to do that. There is comfort in being able to participate in the volatility whenever you want. Cash is a position and guarantees this. 9. Avoid panic, FUD, and FOMO 😳 When emotions are running high, some of the biggest psychological mistakes can occur. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doom. FOMO stands for fear of missing out. These are two common emotions in crashing markets. On one hand, everyone thinks the end is near and then on the other hand every little up move is the next bull run. Do not let these emotions take you. 10. Take a break 😀 Sometimes it helps to step away. Log out, close your apps, get outside and get some exercise. Come back to the markets when you're ready. Your mind will also be well rested now. We hope you enjoyed this post and we hope it helps you as you navigate the markets. Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
118
$SPY - Double Top - Great Reset - Stock Crash Ending 2030$SPY is going for a double top before crashing down to low 200's in the "Great Reset" lasting to 2030. Much like China's "Great Leap Forward" which was one of the largest disasters in history, after which a huge economic advancement was made for several decades. Following the "Great Reset" the United States will enter a period of massive prosperity where conservatism will reign. During this period, the United States will maintain supremacy of the global economy till the year 2100.
AMEX:SPYShort
by motionrelative
This Bear Market Is Almost Over But... This chart contains the overall planned levels for the bottom. The details are below. Primary wave 5 levels are annotated on the left of the lines and Intermediate wave 5 levels on the right. The blue lines are based on the most specific wave position data and the yellows are slightly less specific. The other lines are common Fibonacci and algorithmic trading levels. The significance of 198 trading days was highlighted in my prior analyses which can be found in my TradingView profile. It looks like we are in the final leg of this Bear Market. I currently have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 or wave 2. Through Intermediate wave 5, I name this wave 152A55, and refer to it as a wave ending in 2A55, A55, or 55. Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 likely began within the last hour of trading on October 5th. Minute waves 1 and 2 likely concluded on October 6 while wave 3 finished with the low in the first hour of trading on Friday. Minute 4 was the top shortly after that. The current debate is where did or will Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 end? The majority of Friday was Minute 5 and if it concluded it is displayed here. There is a chance we are still in the late stages of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1. I don’t exactly like this because Minute wave 5 is quite long, however, it is not constrained by length requirements this time. My wave 3 indicator has fired at two locations in the chart below. The first tends to identify waves 3 of 3 and the final may find the end of a wave 3. The theory of us remaining in Minor wave 1 should prodcue a new low beneath 3620 on Monday and a large up day on Tuesday. The theory we are in Minor wave 2 would have us up pretty much all day on Monday and Tuesday. No matter what, this analysis is meant to layout the final movements of Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5 and Intermediate wave 5. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON PRIMARY WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS As of Friday’s close, Primary wave 5 is 37 days long. Primary wave 1 was 35, 2 was 23, 3 was 56, and 4 was 40. Studying waves ending in 2A5, there is not much model agreement on Primary wave 5’s length. The most now is 8 models on 40 days, 4 models on 56 days, and 3 models on 37 days. With the inflation report, earnings and the Fed ahead, 37 and 40 days does not sound likely. The move extension percentages by quartile based on waves ending in 2A5 is 112.36% for the first quartile, 1.3509% for the median and 2.0451% for the third quartile. These are plotted on the main chart at the top with blue lines and the values are on the left. Waves ending in A5 have quartile move extensions of 112.36% again, 122.26%, and 163.93%. These levels are plotted on the chart above with annotations on the left and yellow lines. My models have more agreement on length. Most agreement has 12 models pointing to a length of 40 days, 10 models at 37 days, 8 models at 56 and 60 days, with 7 models at 46 days. Day 46 would be October 20th and this could be close to the bottom. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS Now that we have got through Intermediate waves 1-3 and most likely 4, my models use this data to further project were Intermediate wave 5 should end. I can then take this day as well as the Primary wave 5 data in attempts to refine the potential bottom. Intermediate wave 1 lasted 14 days, 2 was 4 days, 3 was also 14, and wave 4 was 2 days as of now. Our initial wag (wild a** guess) was for Intermediate 5 to last around 15 days. Since wave 1 generally makes up 20% of the larger wave it is in we figured wave 1 would be 3 days, 2 would be 2, 3 would be 4, 4 would be 1-2, and 5 would be around 3. This would roughly place the bottom of 1 on October 10th, top of 2 on October 12th, bottom of 3 (after a significant drop from the inflation report) on October 18th, top of 4 on October 19th or 20th, and the final bottom around October 25th. The models for day length based on waves ending in A55 have the most agreement for a total length of 3, 4, and 8 days. The second most agreement is 9 days, and then a third place tie for 10, 17, 18, 21, and 32 days long. Less than 8 days in my opinion is too quick, however, time will tell. The quartile move extension for waves ending in A55 are 106.1%, 133.14% and 167.15%. The levels are on the main chart with annotations on the right with blue lines. Lastly is the larger and more broad dataset for waves ending in 55. The most model agreement is between 2-4 days total (55-58 models point here). The next area of agreement has 29 models at 5 days, 28 at 6 days, 27 at 10 days, 21 at 7 and 14 days, 18 at 8 days, 14 at 12 days, 12 at 11 days, and 10 at 20 days. The move extensions are 112.52% for the first quartile, 126.93% for the median and 148.58% for the third quartile. These levels are annotated on the right of the main chart above and with yellow lines. Based on all of this data and projections, there are some points of agreement for the Primary and Intermediate levels on the chart. I originally projected the bottom between 3200-3450 which still appears to remain viable. I am currently estimating the bottom before November 3rd and most likely closer to October 21-25. I don’t see us breaking below 3300 this time (most likely set to occur in 2024). I conservatively like the bottom below 3440 and likely below 3400. I think the major catalyst will be the inflation report on the 13th which currently coincides with the beginning of Minor wave 3 inside of Intermediate wave 5. We will likely go down on Monday, up on Tuesday and top on Wednesday of this coming week. The inflation report will impact the early earnings reporters as well. A “bad” inflation report will likely cause the earnings projections to be lowered. The Fed will likely not come out until their meeting in the first week of November. I don’t think their decision will roil the markets and that will likely be the reason for the major gains we are forecasting over the next 7-10 months. The Fed did not want to impact the 2020 election and were dovish when they needed to be hawkish. If another global event occurs between now and then the Fed may also be dovish as they were when the Ukraine war began. No matter what, we see large gains (Cycle wave B - up) on the horizon and slower Fed policy but this bill will come due late next year and things will be gravely worse for the market (Cycle wave C – down) at the end of 2023 and all of2024.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
GBP / USD Short IdeaBearish Chart pattern forming on 4h / 1h timeframe indicating a potential uptrend reversal which could retrace to the 0.382 Fibonacci Level and beyond. This trade idea offers an excellent 5+ Risk to Reward Ratio for the remainder of the week and due to the UK's troubles of tax, political unreasonableness and general economic horror i expect this resistance level once support to allow for big selling opportunity for people trying to reject the recent Bullish pullback on the Pound. - Note to never risk more than 1-3% of your account on any given trade. - Stop Loss 47 Pips above sell bracket. - Stop Loss is 76 Pips above entry point. Opinions on GBU / USD?
Short
by wozencroftkyle
VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD. Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks. However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020. That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
Simple Projection of Second Top (Hidden Bearish Trend) Simple Long-Term Prediction: Since its highest price, BTC has been in a downtrend but It is hard to label it as a bear market. I am seeing it as a reaction that brought us to the significant support level which has been seen as the last pillar of hope with an enormous amount of fear. If BTC can defeat the emotional level of 21.5k, It will give more buying opportunities to the bull runners. I believe that the real bearish market would be from the second top after the price reaches between the 30k-40k. I believe sellers lost a little bit of momentum. In addition to that, the U.S dollar index (20-year high of 114.78) is the major factor in driving the BTC price over the last few weeks which dropped below 111 points. As a result, It can boost market recovery for crypto and stock. My previous BTC analysis was for the long-term strategy which pointed out the long duration of consolidation that means highly choppy trades. To sum up; I am still on the side of my second top scenario and not Fomo bungee jumping for 100k-300k price levels. Thank you, guys!
Long
by Flowrowboat
1
Cup and Handle Forming (Basing)Roller coaster day today. We opened in the morning with a gap down, pushed a little lower and recovered by EOD. 20 day as was my anticipated target for today and we are now basing in in this general area. Cup and Handle pattern looks like it's forming, especially if we hang out here tomorrow and Friday. Might just be tomorrow and then Friday could set the tone for next week and possibly the month. Important to be aware that in the event we move higher than 3850ish, it will invalidate the cup and handle pattern I'm waiting for. If we blow past 3850 and continue higher, I'll have to reassess the market in the coming days before I take any short positions. We are still in a bear market so these rallies can have aggressive upwards movement. Tomorrow we could visit the 3850 area and need to monitor the reaction if it gets there. Will have to sit on my hands to see what happens. Remember, don't predict. React. Be patient. Happy trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
BTC Bullish Crossover in Buy/Sell PressureThis Volume Flow indicator shows both in flow and out flow volume . In June, at the current bottom, you can see sell pressure peaked dramatically, and has since waned. Buy pressure, conversely, and gained momentum. They finally crossed over on the weekly. In my previous idea I point out how this same, particular Volume Flow indicator signaled the end of the 2018 bear, and has generally crossed over at huge swings in momentum. This is very speculative of course, but it will be very interesting to see if it actually reversers momentum.
by D-Rock_Anomaly
The Bearish Trend Continues!Here's a quick look at the daily BTC chart. As we can see, the bearish trend continues, and the price has been trading within a descending triangle formation for some time now. If the price breaks below the descending triangle, then the price will very likely end up at 14K! The price must stay within the triangle to avoid further downside! I must add that SPX500 is down a lot, and BTC hasn't followed up yet. We may see a big move from BTC in the coming days. I'm expecting the 18k support to be broken very soon. I still hold my stance of sub-13k BTC! Also, the volume has been increasing while the price has been decreasing! This is a bearish sign as well! ------------------------------------------- What are triangles when it comes to trading? Key points: "1. In technical analysis , a triangle is a continuation pattern on a chart that forms a triangle-like shape. 2. Triangles are similar to wedges and pennants and can be either a continuation pattern if validated or a powerful reversal pattern, in the event of failure. 3. three potential triangle variations can develop as price action carves out a holding pattern, namely ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles." ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
14
BITCOIN ANALYSIS - BEARMARKET BOTTOMHey Traders, Im Astro and today i show you my Bitcoin Monthly Analysis. Where do i think is the bottom? - Best case: 14000$ - 11000$ - Worst case: 7000$ - 4000$ Where will i buy? - I will buy a lot of Cryptos when Bitcoin is in the 14000$ - 11000$ area. Will i trade this with leverage? - Yes i will also open some 2x-5x Longs on BTC and ETH at that area and dca them and hold them for the bullrun 2023/2024. I hope you like this idea and if you got any questions feel free to ask. I will come back here and give updates.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MM_TRADEZ
3