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Bearmarket

Blueprint for remainder of bear marketWe are unveiling our finals paths based on the completion of waves 1 and 2 inside of our suspected final downturn for 2022. We believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 3, and believe we may have completed Minute wave 4 at the close on Friday. Our next steps would be to complete the final Minute wave 5 drop which will simultaneously end Minor wave 3 sometime early next week. We consider our current position as a wave labeled 152A5335, which will be referred to as a wave ending in 5335 or 335. We expect this wave to be completed Monday or Tuesday at the latest. This does mean we should not only go lower than the Friday close, but we will also likely take out the June low. DETERMINING END OF MINOR WAVE 3 We expect an extension greater than 172.04% to occur for the Minor wave 3 bottom based on Minor wave 1. This would put the low beneath 3633.78. Furthermore, we expect Minute wave 5 to extend 122.05-134.03% beyond Minute wave 3 which puts the bottom between 3598-3616. This would mean we drop around 80-95 points from the Friday close which is around 2.5%. If this holds true Monday and part of Tuesday will likely continue the major drop in the index. The historical minimal move extension for waves ending in 335 is 89.35% which means Minute wave 5 must drop below 3662.62. The first quartile move is at 3616.11 and the median move would place the bottom at 3599.07. Historical moves are not necessarily accurate but most times they provide a good ballpark figure for wave movements. These levels are left most lines on the chart below. The right most lines are the historical extensions for waves ending in 533. These are the projected movement extensions for Minor 3 based on the completed movement of Minor wave 1. The yellow lines represent the historical first quartile movement (133.48%), the median (160.79%) and the third quartile (221.60%). The blue lines are the same but for waves ending in 33 (so based on many more data points, slightly less specific to our current situation). Minor wave 3 appears to be on the higher end of retracements according to the right most lines and our forecast of the bottom around 3600. Minor wave 4’s position is a complete guess right now and we will have a better idea once Minor wave 3 ends. Minor wave 2 moved up about 70 points over 24 trading hours. The movement was slow and not exactly at steep climb. Through most of our research wave 2 OR wave 4 is a quick and sharp move, while the other is slower and not as steep. Right now we would classify wave 2 as the slower one, which opens the door for Minor wave 4 to be quicker than 24 trading hours and a steeper gain. This could see a gain greater than 70 points in a much quicker timeframe ergo a 1-2 rally. Intermediate wave 3 (purple/pink/fuchsia) is placed roughly where we believe it will fall timewise, while the movement will be clarified once Minor wave 3 is completed. WHERE AND WHEN WILL PRIMARY WAVE 5 AND CYCLE WAVE A END? We try to plot out our waves and adjust once each wave completes. We firmly believe Intermediate waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is nearing completion. Wave 1 was 14 days long according to our wave count and wave 2 was 4 days long. We estimated from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 that is would be 16 days long which still appears to look valid. We are projecting Intermediate wave 4 to be slower and not as quick as Intermediate wave 2 because wave 2 appeared to meet the criteria for quick and steep movement. Lastly, we are estimating Intermediate wave 5 will be around the lengths of waves 1 and 3 so we are projecting 15 trading days. We begin to look for real world events to explain our estimates AFTER we have plotted our estimates. In the current case. We strongly believed Intermediate wave 3 would be shaped by a bad inflation report, a week of pre-Fed speculation and then a more pronounced decline after the Fed rate decision. These appeared to hit the mark and these forecasts are viewable in our TradingView profile forever. As far as why will Intermediate wave 3 end around October 4 is a slight mystery. It is possible the JOLTS report shows some fewer jobs openings which would begin to meet some of the Fed’s dovish criteria. Nonetheless, we expect upward movement for Intermediate wave 4. Why does Intermediate wave 4 end? After we plotted this estimate we later learned this top aligns with the next inflation numbers. We project Wave 4 to end on October 12 and the inflation report arrives before the market opens on October 13. A bad report (or the perception of one) would likely tailspin the final Intermediate wave 5 down. This downtrend will likely occur all the way to the Fed rate decision which is slated for November 2. Coincidently enough, our Intermediate wave 5 projection places the market bottom on November 2. Our explanation is that the Fed reduces the rate hike to a potential 0.5% or maintains a 0.75% in order to not “interfere” with the elections which happen the next week. This was a similar consideration the Fed made before the November 2020 elections. We are forecasting the start of a major rally after the Fed decision simply based on Elliott Wave Theory. Stay tuned for more!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
BTC: $10K IS THE BOTTOM BY THE YEAR END! HERE'S WHY....Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this exclusive BTC update. Read the complete analysis carefully. I'll try to explain everything in very short and simple way. Before get to the analysis, I'll tell you this analysis is based on 2018 bear market fractal. I'll add the 2018 chart below so check that chart too for clear understanding. Now, let's get to the chart. Currently, BTC is trading around $18.7k level. According to this chart, BTC is forming a big falling wedge like structure in 2days time frame. The same falling wedge kind of structure was formed in 2018. As of now BTC has a very strong support at $18.5k level and holding that level pretty well so far. If we look closely both 2018 and 2022 bear market structure we found really similar things. In 2018 BTC breaks below it's important support level ($6k) and starts dumping in mid of November and dumped almost 50% so I'm expecting the same thing this time also. What I'm expecting this time:- 1) A bullish rally up to $22k-$23k in the month of October. 2) BTC breaks below it's important support ($18k) in mid November. 3) BTC made it's bottom at around $10k-$12k by the end of year. 4) After this bottom, BTC starts recovering slowly and a new bull run will begin. Invalidation level:- I have a very clear invalidation if this chart is not played out. If BTC 2D candle close above $23k level then this chart becomes invalidated. Hope I'll clear all your doubts and this chart will help you to understand the current market situation very well. If you have any doubts then feel free to ask in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CoreCrypto1
10
We bottom around 9k in December 2022? Please see chart.A minor run to 21k then a dump to 13k probably, sideways, then another dump to 9k where we bottom out. I am not going to trade it to 21k, too risky. Well, this supports the four year cycle theory. People call for 2023 bearish and 5k target, but I believe that we will go sideways from 9k, for half a year, then have a new bull run, I don't know how high we might get - I suppose the 21-22k region will be met with harsh resistance, since it is the ATH of previous cycle + the entire three bull run support line. 2018 till 2019 we went from 3000 to 13000, which is around 4x roughly. A 2x isn't all that bad to be honest. I do think we will break it in 2024 but we will never truly see a new all time high. Because this bull run was supported by the intense money printing that was unprecedented.
Short
by Heartskull
Next 3 days will hurt unless ...I am marking the end of wave 2 with today's high post-Fed. Wave 2 retraced Wave 1's movement near 24% which was greater than the first quartile. My models are pointing at wave 3 to now last 3-6 days. The historical quartile extensions are listed with waves ending in 533 being yellow and waves ending in 33 being light blue. My bottom for now is likely between 3600-3636. We should take out the June lows in this wave. Still looking at a final bottom in late October below 3400. Wave 3 should do a bulk of this work so going below 3600 may need to occur in order to get below 3400 later next month. Fed will meet right before election day and will likely attempt to not rock the election boat; they may only raise .50 or .75 at that time. I still project the final bottom around election day and then we fly much higher toward next summer. Another possible catalyst for upward movement could be an end to fighting in Ukraine. Inflation is not going to get better with continued inaction, so a positive black swan is also possible.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
10k BTC if the price doesn't hold support!Here's a quick look at the weekly BTC chart. As we can see, the price is currently in the crucial support zone, and the price has to hold the support zone to avoid a significant downside. If the price doesn't manage to keep the critical support zone, the price will likely end up in the 12.5k - 9.5k price range. I must mention that there is still an open CME gap at 9.7k, and we may very well end up at the 9k level and thereby close that CME gap. Tho there's no specific timeline for when they'll get filled. ------------------------------------------- What is a CME gap? Key points: A CME gap is a break in the graph of the trading prices of an asset, in this case, Bitcoin. So if BTC closed at 8700, then opened the next session at 9400, there would be a 700-point gap in the chart. Some traders believe that gaps will get “filled.” Meaning the asset will go back down, in this example, and “fill the gap.” ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MBM_Crypto
8
Altcoin season officially over - BTC takes overStarting with last cycle and the emergence of altcoins in the cryptoverse, BTC has been in a tango with them - either dominating the market or allowing alts to shine. This dance can be seen in the BTC dominance chart CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D When comparing the last and current cycles, we notice some key differences: 1. The market has matured. We've had no blow-off top - either because institutional money is influencing price instead of FOMO or people realized that the blow-off top doesn't last for long and decided to take profits earlier. Or both. 2. Trading opportunities have grown exponentially. Last cycle, during the bear market, BTC has regained dominance swiftly. So far in this cycle, BTC dominance has been bouncing around 39%-48%. Why keep your value in a bearish asset when you can play a short term trade to grow your value? 3. People are not leaving the cryptoverse entirely. While last cycle you could either switch back to BTC safehaven or exit to FIAT, today many are using stablecoins to keep their portfolio value waiting for the next opportunity to enter a trade. For the last two cycles BTC has spent a considerable amount of time in the Value Area (area between .618 and .786 Fib retracement from bottom to top) and found the market bottom below this area. Some say that the bottom is in, others that we still have a leg down to reach the market bottom. Either way, we are not far from it. What we can state as more probable than less probable is that we still have at least 3 months to spend in the Value Area before moving up. Depending on how you measure it, we could still be here for the next year or so. During this time (3-12 months) I expect BTC dominance to rise no matter if its USD valuation rises, falls or ranges. Whether it will find resistance around 48% or move to the next level at 58%, we'll have to see. But in the medium term, the dominance looks very likely to move up. PRO TIP : We are still in a bear market. Now is the time for accumulation. If you have in your portfolio alts that are overvalued compared with BTC, there is an opportunity to trade for accumulation. This means trading it to BTC now to buy more back with same BTC later.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by opripom
2
MTGOX DEADLINE EVENTThis is the huge event for Bitcoin and other cryptos but mostly this is the big day for bitcoin. MtGox is going to release 137,000 that’s worth over 3 billion of bitcoin. It’s going to take months to process and complete it, the big dump should be expecting soon while correcting the drop. It’s going to be pretty volatile but becareful. More events are coming on the 21st of the hike decision making following along on the 22nd the ADA Hardfork event. If buy reversal ever come out of nowhere please becareful of the the huge spike down comes if happens then the buy around 10K maybe 12k we are already in range for the drop meltdown like the plane crash. We are still In crypto winter and bear market it’s far to soon To say it’s over and we are now bullish.. no we aren’t yet please do not jinx it yet. 10K has stronger bottom floors, 17,600 is NOT the bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
LUNC taking a break - time to go for a walk! (New entry idea)Here's a quick look at the 2 hr. LUNC chart. As we can see, the price has been forming a bigger falling wedge. The best entry would be when the price breaks above 0.000315$ with a good amount of volume . ------------------------------------------- The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 0.000315$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart. Targets: 1. 0.00034$ 2. 0.00038$ 3. 0.00043$ ------------------------------------------- What are triangles when it comes to trading? Key points: "1. In technical analysis , a triangle is a continuation pattern on a chart that forms a triangle-like shape. 2. Triangles are similar to wedges and pennants and can be either a continuation pattern if validated or a powerful reversal pattern, in the event of failure. 3. three potential triangle variations can develop as price action carves out a holding pattern, namely ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles." ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
10
UAA: Rallies should be capped!Under Armour Inc Short Term - We look to Sell at 9.16 (stop at 9.59) The primary trend remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 9.25. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 8.06 and 7.50 Resistance: 9.25 / 11.50 / 18.00 Support: 8.00 / 6.00 / 3.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:UAAShort
by VantageMarkets
Bear markets don't last as long as Bull marketsSince we last discussed the odds of a recession here, the prospect of a recession has become consensus. The issue that remains under scrutiny is the duration and intensity of the recession. The slide in stock markets has destroyed nearly US$35trn of global wealth in H1 2022. In terms of timing, the European economy is headed for a recession by year-end, while the US economy could enter a recession by the end of Q1 2023. A mild recession is expected in the US, whilst in Europe, the intensity of the recession will depend on how the energy crisis is managed. US – Fading the Federal Reserve (Fed) The US economy is showing signs of growth slowing and inflation peaking. While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped for two consecutive quarters, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) rose in Q1, and real personal income ex-transfer payments increased in Q2. This increases the likelihood of a stronger GDI print in Q2. More importantly, history has shown that the gap between GDP and GDI tends to be closed, with GDP being revised closer to GDI. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. The decline in headline Consuer Price Index (CPI) inflation from 9.1% to 8.5% was a welcome relief to markets. The Federal Reserve path has repriced notabley since the release of the CPI report, with the terminal rate down to 3.55% from 4.25%. While inflation data cooled across non-core and core components, cyclical components like shelter remain elevated. This CPI print validates the case for a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike in September and further moderation going forward (lower than 75bps rate hikes going forward). US Q2 earnings reports have surprised on the upside, with consensus earnings expectations for the year to the June quarter rising from 5% a month back to 8.77%. It is well documented that yield curve inversions always lead to a recession. Interestingly market performance following the inversion has generally been positive. Since the most recent yield curve inversion in June, equities have rebounded similar to scenarios witnessed in the past. Europe’s recession will go hand in hand with higher energy prices Europe’s economy continues to face headwinds from the ongoing energy crisis. Inflation and growth risks have increased further. The Eurozone economy avoided a technical recession in Q2 as GDP rose more than expected by 0.7% Quarter on Quarter (QoQ). However, the growth outlook remains bleak amidst the energy crunch. Russia has weaponised energy and food supply owing to Europe’s deep dependency. The Euro area is contending with an energy-shock and inflation far greater than in the US. With energy prices, up 42% Year on Year (YoY) in June 2022, energy contributed to more than half of the 8.9% YoY inflation reading in July. Complicating matters further, the Rhine River a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies for centuries — is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint owing to extremely shallow water levels. This will likely halt shipments of energy products and other industrial commodities along one of Europe’s most important waterways1. A prolonged heatwave could create delays for winter energy supplies at a crucial time for Europe. In the near term, the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely focus more on current inflation than on recession risks. As a result, the ECB will front load rates by 50bps on the 8th of September, followed by 25bps moves on the 10th of October and 15th of December. Growth risks in China imply further policy stimulus China’s economy continues to disappoint in 2022. China’s Q2 real GDP growth decelerated sharply to 0.4% YoY from 4.8% in Q1, owing to the covid wave and lockdowns since March. While June activity showed signs of a broad-based improvement post lockdown, the growth headwinds have not gone away entirely. The property market turmoil continues to tarnish sentiment with new emerging risks ranging from mortgage payment strikes and declining home sales in July. Fortunately, more effective policy easing is still needed to underpin growth and support demand challenges. Defensive but not too defensive Markets like to stay one step ahead. They do not react to the news as much as they anticipate it. ‘Buy the rumour, sell the news’ is a famous idiom for a reason. In most cases, markets start to fall on the risk of an economic recession, not when the recession is all but guaranteed. This year is no exception, H1’s performance was painful for investors because the market anticipated that strong rate hikes would slow the economy even if it was still growing. Once the economy started to show signs of slowing, markets started to predict monetary easing and rebounded in July. What does our core scenario, where recession is guaranteed, and the only remaining issue is its duration and intensity, mean for investors? It means that in all likelihood, the time for very defensive positioning is gone. The recession is priced in, so going to cash or Min Volatility would have been a good idea months ago. it may be too early for cyclical, aggressive play. Markets have not yet priced in a deep or long recession. A strong, established rebound could still be months away. This leaves investors with defensively-minded, all-weather options. Equity Investment can protect the portfolio if the market starts to expect a deeper recession or participate in the upside if it anticipates a more technical recession. Figure 2 compares the performance of the different equity factors during periods of equity drawdowns. We also include in the analysis a strategy (WisdomTree Quality) combining Quality and High Dividend (focusing on Dividend growing, high-quality companies). Without surprise, the most defensive factor is Min Volatility which reduced the drawdown in all eight periods. Just behind, Quality, WisdomTree Quality and High Dividend would have helped protect the portfolio in 7 out of 8 of the periods. The rest are more cyclical and would have, in most cases, underperformed the market and delivered deeper losses. Returning to defensively-minded, all-weather options, Figure 3 focuses on the most defensive factors but then looks at the capacity of those strategies to capture positive moves. The upside capture ratio is the percentage of market gain captured by a strategy when markets go up. If the upside capture ratio of a strategy is 60%, then when the market goes up by 10%, that strategy would only go up by 6%. Clearly, Min Volatility suffers from a very low upside capture ratio. On the contrary, while being defensive (see Figure 2), Quality and High Dividend exhibit a large propensity to capture the market up moves. WisdomTree Quality is the strategy that exhibited the highest upside capture ratio. In the second half of 2022, awash with uncertainty, a balanced approach between high-quality and dividend-paying stocks could prove very useful in navigating the different ups and downs that could materialise. Definitions the Tech Bubble (4 September 2000 to 12 March 2003) the Financial Crisis (16 July 2007 to 9 March 2009) the Euro Crisis I (15 April 2010 to 5 July 2010) the Euro Crisis II (2 May 2011 to 4 October 2011) the China Crisis (15 April 2015 to 11 February 2016) Q4 2018 (21 September 2018 to 27 December 2018) Covid-19 (12 February 2020 to 23 March 2020) H1 2022 (4 January 2022 to 17 June 2022) Global equities are proxied by the MSCI World net TR Index. Min Volatility is proxied by MSCI World Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality Sector Neutral net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by MSCI World High Dividend net total return index. Value is proxied by MSCI World Enhanced Value net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the MSCI World Momentum net total return index. Size is proxied by the MSCI World Small Cap net total return index. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth net total return index. Sources 1 German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Tools to assess SPX for potential bear and bull marketsIndicators - • CM_Ultimate RSI Multi Timeframe • CM_Stochastic Multi Timeframe • CM_Stochastic Highlight Bars Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH – Now I cannot seem to find the ticker through the search of Trading view. However, I found this by clicking on a post made about this ticker, opening the full chart, and adding it to your watchlist. (If any knows this ticker, please post it in the comments) (If you want to add it to your watchlist I suggest clicking on the ticker link above this post and adding it through there) Possible Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PSR_QUARTER – This is a price to sales ratio of the SPX. This does not have as much history as the Shiller ticker on TradingView however may just be as useful in the future. This is the Shiller Cape Ratio and first a little about it. The Shiller P/E was created by Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller. This ratio helps investors understand whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued while also correcting for short-term volatility. This analytical tool is most used to evaluate the overall U.S. stock market. It is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) or the Shiller P/E 10, due to the 10-year data it uses. As much as these indicators can be used directly on the SPX, I find It cancels out the noise and gives you a strategy and indicator that helps you feel more confident about your decision knowing it is backed by fundamentals. A lot of people had compared the similarities between this crash and the 2008 and this current bear market. The similarities of the point of crossover of the stochastic in the exact position of the 2008 bear market. Not to mention, with the RSI still not having reached oversold territory this indicate that the market has a way to go. Technical analysis can work great on these indicators as using support and resistance levels in the same way you would use them on any other security. Using them to look for potential bounce or resistance levels in bear a bull markets can work wonder. Another ticker that these indicators work lovely on is the S5FI and the S5TH for look for oversold levels as well as divergence a momentum. I will be completely honest, as I am only new to technical analysis. However, I find that similar to crypto using of chain analysis, that trading of fundamentals or underlying key figures give me loads more confidence in making more accurate decisions and better precisely timed decisions and a better understanding of what drives markets.
SP:SPX
by Ryan1993
1