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Bearmarket

Bitcoin future price scenariosTraders, After two failed breakouts of our long-standing bullish descending wedged (since Nov. 21) , BTC is back down to our super strong support of $18,800. This support has held us up on 5 separate occasions since our June low. It has not broken down below with confirmation on the daily since Dec. 2020. Confirmation equals two daily candle closes below. However, if Bitcoin has taught us anything, it's that we should expect the unexpected. I have two potential price movements in my radar pending this all important support level. #1 = 18.8k Support Fails You can see that after failing to break out of our wedge the second time, BTC has retreated back into the red triangle. I have colored the triangle red due to it's inclination towards the bearish side. However, our 18.8k support has caught the price once again and is giving ole' BTC another rest. Should BTC break to the downside, I would expect it to test the bottom of our triangle one more time (currently 15k). Now, 15k does not have to be a precise price. We could wick down as low as 14k before the selling resides. But I would expect the body to close at or around 15-16k on the daily when it's all said and done at which point we rebound and finally break out to the upside of our long-standing descending wedge. We don't have much longer to live inside of this wedge. The tip of the wedge extends into mid-Nov and that is it! But I expect decision time to come sooner. I don't think we'll make it to November before the market is forced to decide. If we break to the upside, which is probable given the nature and character of descending wedges, this is very bullish for BTC. But, if in the unlikely scenario we break to the downside, the typical capitulation period for these long-standing wedges is fairly short in comparison. I would not estimate it to last more than a few weeks to a month at most. And then we go up. Essentially, this long-standing wedge is telling us all that the bottom is near ...for Bitcoin, at least. I cannot reiterate the same sentiment for the broader markets which I am also tracking though, I do anticipate some sort of blow off top for them. If you have been following my weekly video updates, you're already familiar with my theory here. #2 = 18.8k Support Holds So, let's say our support holds once again, the fifth time. What do I anticipate here. Well, obviously, the support holding is great news. But to anticipate price movement here, let's take a look at our RSI. You can see that I have charted what could potentially end up being a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. The neckline would be the red horizontal resistance which we are currently up against as I type. If we break above this, then I expect the market to bring enough volume and buying pressure in to finally and at last break to the upside of our descending wedge. It would be at this point I would proclaim that our bottom was in at the June low of around 17.5k. Have these things charted and you'll be in a much better position to trade successfully in the next few months. Best to you all traders! Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
VIX Weekly Rally?The VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index of the S&P 500 Index. The VIX is generally inverse of the Market's Movement, specifically the S&P Volatility is not stable for markets and acts similar to a greed/fear indicator for the markets. The Higher the Volatility (VIX) The greater the Fear VIX has been in an uptrend the past few months since the Bear Market Kicked off earlier in 2022 Vix Uptrend = Market DownTrend & an increase of volatility The VIX has been forming this pennant-type resistance and support, and now has been testing the upper ends of this. The weekly chart on the VIX is creating a breakout with Momentum Squeezing thru to the upside as well. TTM_SQUEEZE Represents price consolidation, and breakouts through momentum indications similar to MACD. We are currently seeing a flip to the upside in the weekly chart. This would be bad for financial markets and can definitely indicate another large pullback coming with little VIX Resistance above until $40 Zone. We have not 100% broken these yet though, so patience is key and seeing how price reacts around these levels is key.
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
BTC: Still a Bear's MarketIn the current price range and liquidity zones, we see significant selling pressure (bears in control), with not-so-significant buying pressure (bulls not interested in holding longs). This can be ascertained by the cumulative delta at three points in time when the price was at the current level, creating pivot points for reference: June 15-23 Aug 31-Sep 7 Sep 22-27 Note the rejection of buyer interest at each of these pivot points, indicating that the price should move to a lower zone of liquidity. Two confluences that would indicate bulls are controlling the market would be (1) Cumulative delta consolidating ABOVE the highest pivot point, AND, (2) the price is trading above the highest long-term pivot point (purple). We also see bearish divergence in the RSI while the price has been trading in the current range. An increase in price without the cumulative delta breaking the highest pivot point is a strong indicator of a bull trap to knock out long positions (possible warning zone) before moving into liquidity below the current zone, namely $16.5-$17.2k We are currently trading roughly in the middle of the current range, between major liquidity levels. This, along with increased volume usually indicates a move to one end of the range is in the works. SUMMARY Recent RSI bearish divergence coinciding with strong rejection of cumulative delta (CD) pivot points at major liquidity zones. Possible bull trap incoming if CD remains in downtrend against price. Thank you all! Please share your ideas and if you've found this helpful, insightful, infuriating, or interesting, please 👍🏻 That's what keeps me coming back! This is not financial advice, DYOR and due diligence, don't invest more than you can afford to lose, and remember: Nobody missed the boat, it's barely started boarding 😀
Short
by HeyJonBray
HUM: Test previous lows?Humana Inc Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 480.38 (stop at 489.09) Short term momentum is bearish. Daily/Weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance is seen at 488. Further downside is expected. A break of 480.00 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Our profit targets will be 455.29 and 440.00 Resistance: 500.00 / 520.00 / 580.00 Support: 480.00 / 450.00 / 400.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:HUMShort
by VantageMarkets
DKNG Demand Zone + StrengthCompany : DraftKings has been showing Extreme Relative Strength after a nearly 100% move from its June Low to Recent Bear Market Highs. This Relative Strength is not from nowhere and definitely, can be attached to DraftKings leadership in the Sports Betting & Gambling industry. DraftKings has opened up huge money-generating partnerships with NFL, and other large organizations. These agreements and contracts only have pushed DraftKings Higher. While the Market has continued to drift lower these past weeks, DraftKings has been taking a necessary hit from its large run-up. DKNG is entering a Major Demand Zone Dating back to the IPO days. Technicals are showing a very large demand zone from the near $15 level towards the $10 level. With this heavy support area, we may see heavy consolidation for a time being, and a Strong appearance of Buyers. This is a strong thing to note out, as this could be a strong Long-Term Aquiring location for many Investors to pick up in this Bear-Market.
NASDAQ:DKNG
by ZachSap
AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
LINKUSDT map for a potential downtrendThat's my ultimate speculative map for a potential downtrend anatomy for LINKUSDT. We have a reversal Head and Shoulders top in formation, which a pullback to neckline can occurs in a retest of broken dynamic trendline. If the price remains bearish, a test of the volume point of control POC can be expected. Then a potential downtrend in a parallel channel formation can be expected w/ lower highs retesting the dynamic trendline / resistance. The final target is the D point from prior Butterfly pattern.
Short
by firmestudio
Blueprint for remainder of bear marketWe are unveiling our finals paths based on the completion of waves 1 and 2 inside of our suspected final downturn for 2022. We believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 3, and believe we may have completed Minute wave 4 at the close on Friday. Our next steps would be to complete the final Minute wave 5 drop which will simultaneously end Minor wave 3 sometime early next week. We consider our current position as a wave labeled 152A5335, which will be referred to as a wave ending in 5335 or 335. We expect this wave to be completed Monday or Tuesday at the latest. This does mean we should not only go lower than the Friday close, but we will also likely take out the June low. DETERMINING END OF MINOR WAVE 3 We expect an extension greater than 172.04% to occur for the Minor wave 3 bottom based on Minor wave 1. This would put the low beneath 3633.78. Furthermore, we expect Minute wave 5 to extend 122.05-134.03% beyond Minute wave 3 which puts the bottom between 3598-3616. This would mean we drop around 80-95 points from the Friday close which is around 2.5%. If this holds true Monday and part of Tuesday will likely continue the major drop in the index. The historical minimal move extension for waves ending in 335 is 89.35% which means Minute wave 5 must drop below 3662.62. The first quartile move is at 3616.11 and the median move would place the bottom at 3599.07. Historical moves are not necessarily accurate but most times they provide a good ballpark figure for wave movements. These levels are left most lines on the chart below. The right most lines are the historical extensions for waves ending in 533. These are the projected movement extensions for Minor 3 based on the completed movement of Minor wave 1. The yellow lines represent the historical first quartile movement (133.48%), the median (160.79%) and the third quartile (221.60%). The blue lines are the same but for waves ending in 33 (so based on many more data points, slightly less specific to our current situation). Minor wave 3 appears to be on the higher end of retracements according to the right most lines and our forecast of the bottom around 3600. Minor wave 4’s position is a complete guess right now and we will have a better idea once Minor wave 3 ends. Minor wave 2 moved up about 70 points over 24 trading hours. The movement was slow and not exactly at steep climb. Through most of our research wave 2 OR wave 4 is a quick and sharp move, while the other is slower and not as steep. Right now we would classify wave 2 as the slower one, which opens the door for Minor wave 4 to be quicker than 24 trading hours and a steeper gain. This could see a gain greater than 70 points in a much quicker timeframe ergo a 1-2 rally. Intermediate wave 3 (purple/pink/fuchsia) is placed roughly where we believe it will fall timewise, while the movement will be clarified once Minor wave 3 is completed. WHERE AND WHEN WILL PRIMARY WAVE 5 AND CYCLE WAVE A END? We try to plot out our waves and adjust once each wave completes. We firmly believe Intermediate waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is nearing completion. Wave 1 was 14 days long according to our wave count and wave 2 was 4 days long. We estimated from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 that is would be 16 days long which still appears to look valid. We are projecting Intermediate wave 4 to be slower and not as quick as Intermediate wave 2 because wave 2 appeared to meet the criteria for quick and steep movement. Lastly, we are estimating Intermediate wave 5 will be around the lengths of waves 1 and 3 so we are projecting 15 trading days. We begin to look for real world events to explain our estimates AFTER we have plotted our estimates. In the current case. We strongly believed Intermediate wave 3 would be shaped by a bad inflation report, a week of pre-Fed speculation and then a more pronounced decline after the Fed rate decision. These appeared to hit the mark and these forecasts are viewable in our TradingView profile forever. As far as why will Intermediate wave 3 end around October 4 is a slight mystery. It is possible the JOLTS report shows some fewer jobs openings which would begin to meet some of the Fed’s dovish criteria. Nonetheless, we expect upward movement for Intermediate wave 4. Why does Intermediate wave 4 end? After we plotted this estimate we later learned this top aligns with the next inflation numbers. We project Wave 4 to end on October 12 and the inflation report arrives before the market opens on October 13. A bad report (or the perception of one) would likely tailspin the final Intermediate wave 5 down. This downtrend will likely occur all the way to the Fed rate decision which is slated for November 2. Coincidently enough, our Intermediate wave 5 projection places the market bottom on November 2. Our explanation is that the Fed reduces the rate hike to a potential 0.5% or maintains a 0.75% in order to not “interfere” with the elections which happen the next week. This was a similar consideration the Fed made before the November 2020 elections. We are forecasting the start of a major rally after the Fed decision simply based on Elliott Wave Theory. Stay tuned for more!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
BTC: $10K IS THE BOTTOM BY THE YEAR END! HERE'S WHY....Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this exclusive BTC update. Read the complete analysis carefully. I'll try to explain everything in very short and simple way. Before get to the analysis, I'll tell you this analysis is based on 2018 bear market fractal. I'll add the 2018 chart below so check that chart too for clear understanding. Now, let's get to the chart. Currently, BTC is trading around $18.7k level. According to this chart, BTC is forming a big falling wedge like structure in 2days time frame. The same falling wedge kind of structure was formed in 2018. As of now BTC has a very strong support at $18.5k level and holding that level pretty well so far. If we look closely both 2018 and 2022 bear market structure we found really similar things. In 2018 BTC breaks below it's important support level ($6k) and starts dumping in mid of November and dumped almost 50% so I'm expecting the same thing this time also. What I'm expecting this time:- 1) A bullish rally up to $22k-$23k in the month of October. 2) BTC breaks below it's important support ($18k) in mid November. 3) BTC made it's bottom at around $10k-$12k by the end of year. 4) After this bottom, BTC starts recovering slowly and a new bull run will begin. Invalidation level:- I have a very clear invalidation if this chart is not played out. If BTC 2D candle close above $23k level then this chart becomes invalidated. Hope I'll clear all your doubts and this chart will help you to understand the current market situation very well. If you have any doubts then feel free to ask in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CoreCrypto1
10
We bottom around 9k in December 2022? Please see chart.A minor run to 21k then a dump to 13k probably, sideways, then another dump to 9k where we bottom out. I am not going to trade it to 21k, too risky. Well, this supports the four year cycle theory. People call for 2023 bearish and 5k target, but I believe that we will go sideways from 9k, for half a year, then have a new bull run, I don't know how high we might get - I suppose the 21-22k region will be met with harsh resistance, since it is the ATH of previous cycle + the entire three bull run support line. 2018 till 2019 we went from 3000 to 13000, which is around 4x roughly. A 2x isn't all that bad to be honest. I do think we will break it in 2024 but we will never truly see a new all time high. Because this bull run was supported by the intense money printing that was unprecedented.
Short
by Heartskull
Next 3 days will hurt unless ...I am marking the end of wave 2 with today's high post-Fed. Wave 2 retraced Wave 1's movement near 24% which was greater than the first quartile. My models are pointing at wave 3 to now last 3-6 days. The historical quartile extensions are listed with waves ending in 533 being yellow and waves ending in 33 being light blue. My bottom for now is likely between 3600-3636. We should take out the June lows in this wave. Still looking at a final bottom in late October below 3400. Wave 3 should do a bulk of this work so going below 3600 may need to occur in order to get below 3400 later next month. Fed will meet right before election day and will likely attempt to not rock the election boat; they may only raise .50 or .75 at that time. I still project the final bottom around election day and then we fly much higher toward next summer. Another possible catalyst for upward movement could be an end to fighting in Ukraine. Inflation is not going to get better with continued inaction, so a positive black swan is also possible.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
10k BTC if the price doesn't hold support!Here's a quick look at the weekly BTC chart. As we can see, the price is currently in the crucial support zone, and the price has to hold the support zone to avoid a significant downside. If the price doesn't manage to keep the critical support zone, the price will likely end up in the 12.5k - 9.5k price range. I must mention that there is still an open CME gap at 9.7k, and we may very well end up at the 9k level and thereby close that CME gap. Tho there's no specific timeline for when they'll get filled. ------------------------------------------- What is a CME gap? Key points: A CME gap is a break in the graph of the trading prices of an asset, in this case, Bitcoin. So if BTC closed at 8700, then opened the next session at 9400, there would be a 700-point gap in the chart. Some traders believe that gaps will get “filled.” Meaning the asset will go back down, in this example, and “fill the gap.” ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MBM_Crypto
8
Altcoin season officially over - BTC takes overStarting with last cycle and the emergence of altcoins in the cryptoverse, BTC has been in a tango with them - either dominating the market or allowing alts to shine. This dance can be seen in the BTC dominance chart CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D When comparing the last and current cycles, we notice some key differences: 1. The market has matured. We've had no blow-off top - either because institutional money is influencing price instead of FOMO or people realized that the blow-off top doesn't last for long and decided to take profits earlier. Or both. 2. Trading opportunities have grown exponentially. Last cycle, during the bear market, BTC has regained dominance swiftly. So far in this cycle, BTC dominance has been bouncing around 39%-48%. Why keep your value in a bearish asset when you can play a short term trade to grow your value? 3. People are not leaving the cryptoverse entirely. While last cycle you could either switch back to BTC safehaven or exit to FIAT, today many are using stablecoins to keep their portfolio value waiting for the next opportunity to enter a trade. For the last two cycles BTC has spent a considerable amount of time in the Value Area (area between .618 and .786 Fib retracement from bottom to top) and found the market bottom below this area. Some say that the bottom is in, others that we still have a leg down to reach the market bottom. Either way, we are not far from it. What we can state as more probable than less probable is that we still have at least 3 months to spend in the Value Area before moving up. Depending on how you measure it, we could still be here for the next year or so. During this time (3-12 months) I expect BTC dominance to rise no matter if its USD valuation rises, falls or ranges. Whether it will find resistance around 48% or move to the next level at 58%, we'll have to see. But in the medium term, the dominance looks very likely to move up. PRO TIP : We are still in a bear market. Now is the time for accumulation. If you have in your portfolio alts that are overvalued compared with BTC, there is an opportunity to trade for accumulation. This means trading it to BTC now to buy more back with same BTC later.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by opripom
2
MTGOX DEADLINE EVENTThis is the huge event for Bitcoin and other cryptos but mostly this is the big day for bitcoin. MtGox is going to release 137,000 that’s worth over 3 billion of bitcoin. It’s going to take months to process and complete it, the big dump should be expecting soon while correcting the drop. It’s going to be pretty volatile but becareful. More events are coming on the 21st of the hike decision making following along on the 22nd the ADA Hardfork event. If buy reversal ever come out of nowhere please becareful of the the huge spike down comes if happens then the buy around 10K maybe 12k we are already in range for the drop meltdown like the plane crash. We are still In crypto winter and bear market it’s far to soon To say it’s over and we are now bullish.. no we aren’t yet please do not jinx it yet. 10K has stronger bottom floors, 17,600 is NOT the bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1