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Bearmarket

Bear markets don't last as long as Bull marketsSince we last discussed the odds of a recession here, the prospect of a recession has become consensus. The issue that remains under scrutiny is the duration and intensity of the recession. The slide in stock markets has destroyed nearly US$35trn of global wealth in H1 2022. In terms of timing, the European economy is headed for a recession by year-end, while the US economy could enter a recession by the end of Q1 2023. A mild recession is expected in the US, whilst in Europe, the intensity of the recession will depend on how the energy crisis is managed. US – Fading the Federal Reserve (Fed) The US economy is showing signs of growth slowing and inflation peaking. While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped for two consecutive quarters, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) rose in Q1, and real personal income ex-transfer payments increased in Q2. This increases the likelihood of a stronger GDI print in Q2. More importantly, history has shown that the gap between GDP and GDI tends to be closed, with GDP being revised closer to GDI. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. The decline in headline Consuer Price Index (CPI) inflation from 9.1% to 8.5% was a welcome relief to markets. The Federal Reserve path has repriced notabley since the release of the CPI report, with the terminal rate down to 3.55% from 4.25%. While inflation data cooled across non-core and core components, cyclical components like shelter remain elevated. This CPI print validates the case for a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike in September and further moderation going forward (lower than 75bps rate hikes going forward). US Q2 earnings reports have surprised on the upside, with consensus earnings expectations for the year to the June quarter rising from 5% a month back to 8.77%. It is well documented that yield curve inversions always lead to a recession. Interestingly market performance following the inversion has generally been positive. Since the most recent yield curve inversion in June, equities have rebounded similar to scenarios witnessed in the past. Europe’s recession will go hand in hand with higher energy prices Europe’s economy continues to face headwinds from the ongoing energy crisis. Inflation and growth risks have increased further. The Eurozone economy avoided a technical recession in Q2 as GDP rose more than expected by 0.7% Quarter on Quarter (QoQ). However, the growth outlook remains bleak amidst the energy crunch. Russia has weaponised energy and food supply owing to Europe’s deep dependency. The Euro area is contending with an energy-shock and inflation far greater than in the US. With energy prices, up 42% Year on Year (YoY) in June 2022, energy contributed to more than half of the 8.9% YoY inflation reading in July. Complicating matters further, the Rhine River a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies for centuries — is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint owing to extremely shallow water levels. This will likely halt shipments of energy products and other industrial commodities along one of Europe’s most important waterways1. A prolonged heatwave could create delays for winter energy supplies at a crucial time for Europe. In the near term, the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely focus more on current inflation than on recession risks. As a result, the ECB will front load rates by 50bps on the 8th of September, followed by 25bps moves on the 10th of October and 15th of December. Growth risks in China imply further policy stimulus China’s economy continues to disappoint in 2022. China’s Q2 real GDP growth decelerated sharply to 0.4% YoY from 4.8% in Q1, owing to the covid wave and lockdowns since March. While June activity showed signs of a broad-based improvement post lockdown, the growth headwinds have not gone away entirely. The property market turmoil continues to tarnish sentiment with new emerging risks ranging from mortgage payment strikes and declining home sales in July. Fortunately, more effective policy easing is still needed to underpin growth and support demand challenges. Defensive but not too defensive Markets like to stay one step ahead. They do not react to the news as much as they anticipate it. ‘Buy the rumour, sell the news’ is a famous idiom for a reason. In most cases, markets start to fall on the risk of an economic recession, not when the recession is all but guaranteed. This year is no exception, H1’s performance was painful for investors because the market anticipated that strong rate hikes would slow the economy even if it was still growing. Once the economy started to show signs of slowing, markets started to predict monetary easing and rebounded in July. What does our core scenario, where recession is guaranteed, and the only remaining issue is its duration and intensity, mean for investors? It means that in all likelihood, the time for very defensive positioning is gone. The recession is priced in, so going to cash or Min Volatility would have been a good idea months ago. it may be too early for cyclical, aggressive play. Markets have not yet priced in a deep or long recession. A strong, established rebound could still be months away. This leaves investors with defensively-minded, all-weather options. Equity Investment can protect the portfolio if the market starts to expect a deeper recession or participate in the upside if it anticipates a more technical recession. Figure 2 compares the performance of the different equity factors during periods of equity drawdowns. We also include in the analysis a strategy (WisdomTree Quality) combining Quality and High Dividend (focusing on Dividend growing, high-quality companies). Without surprise, the most defensive factor is Min Volatility which reduced the drawdown in all eight periods. Just behind, Quality, WisdomTree Quality and High Dividend would have helped protect the portfolio in 7 out of 8 of the periods. The rest are more cyclical and would have, in most cases, underperformed the market and delivered deeper losses. Returning to defensively-minded, all-weather options, Figure 3 focuses on the most defensive factors but then looks at the capacity of those strategies to capture positive moves. The upside capture ratio is the percentage of market gain captured by a strategy when markets go up. If the upside capture ratio of a strategy is 60%, then when the market goes up by 10%, that strategy would only go up by 6%. Clearly, Min Volatility suffers from a very low upside capture ratio. On the contrary, while being defensive (see Figure 2), Quality and High Dividend exhibit a large propensity to capture the market up moves. WisdomTree Quality is the strategy that exhibited the highest upside capture ratio. In the second half of 2022, awash with uncertainty, a balanced approach between high-quality and dividend-paying stocks could prove very useful in navigating the different ups and downs that could materialise. Definitions the Tech Bubble (4 September 2000 to 12 March 2003) the Financial Crisis (16 July 2007 to 9 March 2009) the Euro Crisis I (15 April 2010 to 5 July 2010) the Euro Crisis II (2 May 2011 to 4 October 2011) the China Crisis (15 April 2015 to 11 February 2016) Q4 2018 (21 September 2018 to 27 December 2018) Covid-19 (12 February 2020 to 23 March 2020) H1 2022 (4 January 2022 to 17 June 2022) Global equities are proxied by the MSCI World net TR Index. Min Volatility is proxied by MSCI World Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality Sector Neutral net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by MSCI World High Dividend net total return index. Value is proxied by MSCI World Enhanced Value net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the MSCI World Momentum net total return index. Size is proxied by the MSCI World Small Cap net total return index. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth net total return index. Sources 1 German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Tools to assess SPX for potential bear and bull marketsIndicators - • CM_Ultimate RSI Multi Timeframe • CM_Stochastic Multi Timeframe • CM_Stochastic Highlight Bars Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH – Now I cannot seem to find the ticker through the search of Trading view. However, I found this by clicking on a post made about this ticker, opening the full chart, and adding it to your watchlist. (If any knows this ticker, please post it in the comments) (If you want to add it to your watchlist I suggest clicking on the ticker link above this post and adding it through there) Possible Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PSR_QUARTER – This is a price to sales ratio of the SPX. This does not have as much history as the Shiller ticker on TradingView however may just be as useful in the future. This is the Shiller Cape Ratio and first a little about it. The Shiller P/E was created by Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller. This ratio helps investors understand whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued while also correcting for short-term volatility. This analytical tool is most used to evaluate the overall U.S. stock market. It is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) or the Shiller P/E 10, due to the 10-year data it uses. As much as these indicators can be used directly on the SPX, I find It cancels out the noise and gives you a strategy and indicator that helps you feel more confident about your decision knowing it is backed by fundamentals. A lot of people had compared the similarities between this crash and the 2008 and this current bear market. The similarities of the point of crossover of the stochastic in the exact position of the 2008 bear market. Not to mention, with the RSI still not having reached oversold territory this indicate that the market has a way to go. Technical analysis can work great on these indicators as using support and resistance levels in the same way you would use them on any other security. Using them to look for potential bounce or resistance levels in bear a bull markets can work wonder. Another ticker that these indicators work lovely on is the S5FI and the S5TH for look for oversold levels as well as divergence a momentum. I will be completely honest, as I am only new to technical analysis. However, I find that similar to crypto using of chain analysis, that trading of fundamentals or underlying key figures give me loads more confidence in making more accurate decisions and better precisely timed decisions and a better understanding of what drives markets.
SP:SPX
by Ryan1993
1
LYV: The music just stopped!Live Nation Entertainment Short Term - We look to Sell at 90.13 (stop at 93.80) The medium term bias remains bearish. A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. The measured move target is 81.00. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 91.00 level. Our profit targets will be 81.20 and 79.00 Resistance: 93.00 / 99.50 / 127.00 Support: 81.00 / 74.00 / 60.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:LYV
by VantageMarkets
$SPY Post Jackson Hole waterfall now what ? Taking a step back , although a continued down trend in SPY since JAN highs, after post Jackson Hole water fall it appears SPY is ready for another rally. Barring any Black Swan event , RSI on the daily is approaching oversold and price is near the bottom of the downward channel. While a "lower low" is still in the cards, the R/R favors the upside here and began scaling in longs for OCT opex. Small size, and will add if price manages to crack below to 375 zone, although we may not get 375 hence the scale in starting today. Surely shorts from 420+ have feasted well and will start closing/ taking profits off the table and waiting for the next opportunity to reload. Note, this is a counter trend rally trade , I'm still fairly convinced we stair step down for a while longer with nice rips along the way - a rip I believe is closely approaching ! Cheers
AMEX:SPYLong
by FriscoTrades
4
CVX: Crude Oil blues?Chevron Corporation Short Term - We look to Sell at 162.55 (stop at 167.91) Our outlook is bearish. The trend of lower highs is located at 166.80. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected. Our profit targets will be 148.94 and 144.00 Resistance: 165.00 / 182.00 / 200.00 Support: 148.50 / 134.00 / 111.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:CVXShort
by VantageMarkets
CSPR died in January 2021, like RchainHyperinflation during bear market - same marketcap as we had in 20c in August 2021 The team has bad image - team scolding people in Telegram (already deleted), I have screenshot in case people say I am lying Not listed on any major exchange since listing - hyped up Binance, never came Still no use case Slow chain, slow finality - eth2 coming so completely useless Same team as RChain was also Casper fork - utterly failed There is heavy selling pressure from validator - in entire bull market it did 10% up maybe then full retrace. I saw it going up by 10-30% many times during autumn 2021, all to retrace. Casperpad was also a scam - but good enough for final double top
Short
by Heartskull
3
Bitcoin DEAD, 3-4k since BTC supply is lost. China was right.Around 13000 we will see a relief bounce, maybe even a short bull run, but in the end it will drop to zero (with zero I mean 4000, because a lot of BTC are lost) Why? 1. Crypto offers no value - it is basically thin air. Apple produces devices, Tencent produces software, Gold is used to make jewelry and cannot be created. Bitcoin has zero value. I can create Bitcoin, you can create Bitcoin, scarcity failed 2. When there is inflation, Bitcoin will rise - failed - people want rice and canned fish rather than a piece of digital worthless garbage 3. I can send millions within seconds - really? You need to register on an exchange first step - exchanges that all registered on weird Islands if the exchanges shut down you cannot do anything 4. No safety - forgot password - ruined, lost device - ruined, stable tokens that claim to be safe crash left and right. USDT crashed in May! 5. It is all based on HYPE. 99,9% of tokens from previous bull run are near zero capitalization 6. Defi is ponzi, the late comers pay the interest for the early investors 7. It is very centralized - if you want to cash out or deposit you NEED an exchange! 8. Full of arrogant people who are whales and got lucky, they are extremely greedy, and mock you, karma will pay back. For example a friend who once had 10 Million USD in crypto was bragging on Twitter that he made it, he kept holding on his DeFi tokens like Olympus and likeof, he is now under 100K. Another whale friend had like 100 Million USD at the peak and he is now down to 9 Million, his group asked me to buy Bakeryswap and adviced me on Egg and Taste finance - I went from 30k to 3k to 100k early 2021, to under 1000. yet I made it to 10000 multiple times in bear market. I feel like he owes me, however he is being greedy, every single person in crypto space will be ruined. I asked him, he said he will share profits or gift tokens, nada, nilch. I cannot marry, I cannot have children I cannot study, they ruined me completely. Yet I avoided all crashes! I sold at 53K, and did absolutely nothing. I made money during LUNA crash but lost it because of shorting UNFI that a guy in that group suggested. My point is whales are arrogant and karma will get them, we must crash. Do not trust any whales! 9. 8 again -- some protocols living on leverage and arrogant people like El Salvador president and Michael Saylor who made many people buy the top they think they are safe. 10. We have 20,000 cryptocurrencies, much like dotcom bubble, they need to be flushed out first! 11. We closed weekly and monthly below 200 WMA and we about to break an important BTC support line for first time in history. HOWEVER IM THANKFUL, thanks to crypto I know best strategy is to work and invest every month into stock market and be patient. I congratulate the people who made it during previous bull run.
Short
by Heartskull
5
BTC outlook - Bearish trend continues! Here's a quick look at the BTC daily chart. As we can see, the price broke below the bear flag ( Rising channel ) and if the price doesn't hold above the crucial support zone, then we should expect BTC to go down much further. The technical target of the breakdown is down at 11.5k! For now, I do expect us to revisit 18k at least, but let's wait and see what happens here. It should be mentioned that a lot of strong indicators are showing sell signals at current prices, and one should take note of that. Also, the S&P 500 is not showing much strength and is very likely to go down from its current price level. I expect BTC to end up at the 9-10k level in this bear market due to the CME gap at 9.7k, BUT I could be very wrong!! Trade safe! ------------------------------------------- What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?: "A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series throughout 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts. Key Takeaways for Falling wedges: 1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods. 2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction. 3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals." ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
7
BTC/USDT (1D) - Struggling to get higher, Rising wedge formed ?Hi Traders and Crypto Investors... As You can see, BTC and entire Stock market is moving UP for recent 4-5 weeks. Is it Impulsive or Corrective move ? In my opinion its Correction or partial Short-take profit and re-entry of Shorts, after 50% bounce from Lows. (Around 17k at big exchanges, some small exchanges BTC touched almost 14K.) So according to Technical analysis of smaller Timeframe like 2H-4H we are forming Rising wedge with ending diagonal in wave c. More detailed count is attached. Why do I think BTC will continue to Fall ? = Coming recession in China / US / Europe. (Check fresh data from CHina = Economy slowing, Housing market BIG problems, central bank decreased interest rate by 0,1% today...) = Dollar Index is forming Bull Flag. (Chart Attached). = Risk OFF mode for everything. Let me know what is your opinion, or post your Wave count. Have a green day ;)
Short
by Longevity_Contrarian
1
Long term BTC BTC currently stuck below the 200 EMA and December '17's peak. RSI bearish crossover could suggest a revisit of the local bottom at ~$17k. Failure to hold that level and 14k is the next key level which coincides with the same drawdown as last bear market of ~80% over a full year of retracement. This kind of price action would suggest dropping much further down than the 200EMA which has always been historic support. A lot of bitcoins future is in the hands of traditional indices. Not financial advice
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
What to do in a Bear market?A few tips for making it through the bear market: Profile Rebalancing Rebalancing a portfolio means adjusting the weightings of the different asset classes in your investment portfolio. This is achieved by buying or selling assets, which changes the weighting of a specific asset class. Dollar Cost Average It is an investment strategy that aims to reduce the impact of volatility on the purchase of assets. It involves buying equal amounts of the asset at regular intervals. Re-evaluate Your Holdings Choosing investments is just the beginning of your work as an investor. As time goes by, you'll need to monitor the performance of these investments to see how they are working together in your portfolio to help you progress toward your goals. Generally speaking, progress means that your portfolio value is steadily increasing, even though one or more of your investments may have lost value. If your investments are not showing any gains or your account value is slipping, you'll have to determine why, and decide on your next move. To free up money to make these new purchases, you may want to sell individual investments that have not performed well, while not abandoning the asset allocation you've selected as appropriate. Fundamental Analysis To see if a cryptocurrency has an intrinsic value that isn't reflected in its current market price, you can employ a fundamental analysis strategy, which is the act of investigating and evaluating an investment to forecast its future worth. As an investor, you can then use this information to tactically buy or sell positions based on whether the coin is overpriced or underpriced, even while bearing in mind that cryptocurrency prices are volatile. After all, even well-known currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are subject to price fluctuations. Planning for Long-Term Big picture trading is about taking everything into account and making an informed decision. In my opinion, it's one of the best trading methods. A branch of hedge funds, known as Global Macro funds, takes this approach. Do Nothing for a While If you are stressed and freaked out from big loss do nothing for a while and let your mind rest. What else would you add to this list?
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by parissap
8
BITCOIN MAY FALL TO 10K IN Q4 2022This is a follow up to my previous idea I posted an idea a few months ago about how BTC likely won't go any higher than 200 DMA, and so far it has been following my outlook very closely. Bitcoin bearish outlook using 2018 data. I have been closely observing 2018 bear crypto bear market and have been studying it since last year. There are quite a lot of similarities between 2022 bear market and the 2018 bear market. If you look at the charts, some of these are quite obvious such as - Blow off top in Q4 2017/2021 - A little rally in spring 2018/2022 - Couple red months in a row in Q2/Q3 2018/2022 - Dead cat bounce in summer, green monthly candle in 2018/2022 So now we will look at what the BTC price action may look like if it continues to follow 2018. - The next couple months, like Q4 2018, would see the bottom of this bear market and have prices get to levels that could take many people by surprise. - November/December 2018 saw the market bottom out and gave a great opportunity of a life time, this may be the case again. - Also there are more factors here than just following 2018, such as: - More interest rate hikes - Negative GDP - Quantitative tightening - Inflation continuing to get worse with soaring prices - Another possible covid variant - More countries have economic collapses - Gigantic stock market crash, perhaps as much as 50% as per Michael Burry's outlook - Traders and retail choosing to cash out to pay their loans to avoid higher interests, or to afford basic needs with higher prices - People losing their jobs and more getting laid, having to take out their investments to support their families I have only charted upto Jan 2024, simply because it may be a bit harder to predict what happens after. In 2020 we got the covid crash, odds of another unpredictable global pandemic in 2024 are very slim. Also, the fed has mentioned that they could possibly start printing again as early as 2024, which also happens to be very close to the Bitcoin halving. And since we are making this based on past BTC trends, the halving always happens to slowly kick off the next bull market. To sum up: A) Bitcoin may fall as low as sub $10,000 in Q4 B) Mini bull market in first half of 2023, similar to 2019 C) Resume bear market in second half of 2023, similar to 2019 D) Getting to end the bear market in early 2024 and starting the next big bull market, similar to 2020 BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCEUS:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BNC:BLX NASDAQ:BLX BITMEX:XBT FTX:BTCUSD FTX:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDC BYBIT:BTCUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT BITFINEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Coindatahouse
DO NOT BUY BITCOIN YET … The whole entire stock market and crypto are going to be crashing much worse. Why? - monkeypox/Orthopoxvirus 18,400 cases - monkeypox global cases 50,000 COVID-19 aka SARS-Cov-2 - Global: 602 million cases / Deaths: 6.50 million USA: 94.2 million cases/ deaths: 1.04 million The Epidemic Is NOT OVER. Now for the government On September 1st they going to take 90 billion off the market which will cause volatile insane of all the markets and cryptos. Last time in June the took 40 billion out which is why cause everything to crash. As for bitcoin we are still in a high sell Pressure we aren’t bottom yet. 12K along with a dip has stronger floors & 10K with a dip as well which will cause the bulls to take the full recovery.. if I were you please do not buy bitcoin yet it’s still too early and we aren’t bottom yet. Stay safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
3
Commence The PumpHello Friends Since August 14th Eth has been moving down slowly in what I believe is a beautiful flag (or corrective channel pattern as I like to call it). These corrective channels show up across every asset on Higher and lower time frames. In fact, almost every multi year bear market correction resembles these channel like structures. From Bitcoin during the 2017 Bear Market, to AMZN during the Dot com crash, this pattern has distinct characteristics such as: 1. A quick move down with no consolidation or definitive peak formed. (Notice how on August 14th Eth Dropped after only a day and a half of consolidation). This isnt always the case in every pattern. 2. Choppy behavior 3.Usually includes one or multiple rallies between moves down (People call these bear market Rallies) 4.Usually consists of 2-4 lows formed in the channel before reversing and breaking to the upside. Now back to this current Eth corrective channel on the lower time frames that we're looking at. I believe we're at the tail end of one of these corrections I described above and 1 of 2 things happen in the near future; 1.The 2 fresh lows the channel has put in are adequate, the pattern is complete, and Eth gets sent back above $2,000. 2.Eth decides "Hey lets give these mfers some more pain" and puts in a third low in the channel around $1200-$1300, before completing the pattern and sending us back above 2k. The only reason I have so much conviction in this outcome of $2000+ eth again soon, is because I've seen these corrective channel patterns play out hundreds of times in Crypto, stocks, forex, medals, and even NFT charts...Over several years. But What would invalidate this pattern you ask? A Straight spike down from here to around $1000 would destroy the channel and invalidate the trade for me. But I would be shocked if that happened. Cheers guys, Hope this helped.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by Brenvest
10
More red to come, slight reprieve next weekHere is the plan for the near term. Still looks like we are in the tail end of Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 5. Looks like we are in for big drops after the Fed meeting, but the inflation report may remain tame in the short-term. The estimated path for the rest of Primary wave 5 is here with the turnover occurring around US elections: Here is the estimated path for the rest of the correction/recession. Still hoping for the final bottom by March 2025, could be sooner or later of course.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8