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BTC/USD: A Study Through Time CyclesHello Traders 👋 This is a small attempt to analyze the BTC/USD through the lens of historical time cycles. I can observe, on this monthly log chart, a 4 year correction cycle -- 2014, 2018 and now in 2022 Previous corrections: 2014 Dip = -86% 2018 Dip = -84% Current Correction: 2022 Dip so far = -74% The previous bear markets ended with a dip of around 80%. This time it made a double top in the later half of 2021 and has already slashed 74% from the top so far. Does that mean there is still room for 5-10% correction? If we look at the chart June 2019 highs were at around 13880 levels. So this area acted as resistance. This area also coincides with our 80% correction cycle which is at around 13800. This area of resistance could become a potential support zone in case of further dip. But before reaching at any final conclusion, one has to observe the price action at above mentioned zones on a lower timeframe, say daily. The price often builds a horizontal cause (accumulation) before revealing vertical results. So its better to wait for some accumulation before getting into buy mode. I hope this was helpful. Thanks for reading 👍
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bravetotrade
14
$AMZN: Down trend slowing down...There's a possibility of further downside for $AMZN over time, but currently, price action and the drop in commodities suggest that $AMZN is likely to go higher for a while. Until the next FOMC meeting, market participants might bet on a Fed pivot taking place sooner rather than later, given the drop in commodities suggesting inflation might be under control already. I personally think what comes after it is a recession, particularly if the Fed stays in the same hawkish course for longer...For now I'm out of bearish positions and went long using options in a few select names, as well as stock positions in names like $TWTR and $TSLA, etc. Upside here is good, see the yellow boxes for time and price targets in the immediate short term. What comes after this relief rally until mid to late July is to be seen. Will know more when we get there. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by IvanLabrie
1
BITCOIN WILL ULTIMATELY GO TO $2.22. FIRST TARGET - $3850I've been away for a while. Coming back to make a chart that I think is very important. We have Bitcoin's 3 Month chart. If we were to look at altcoins, in bear market it tends to come back to prior supports. You may say that Bitcoin recovered many times before. Yes, it did. Although media coverage wasn't that big, celebrities were not on board as much as they are now.. This bubble is deflating and will take some time to deflate. Although one thing is clear, we are going lower than $2.22. Bullish rallies in bear markets are vicious and very strong. Do not be fooled because it's very temporary. Main MACRO supports are in the chart. @ $3850 @ $152.40 @ $2.22 Ultimately it will go below $2.22. Until the next one
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Patrikas10
6
AAPL Weekly Wave Count Suggests New Bear MarketJust following up with the prior AAPL idea linked below that demonstrated just how silly a mid-range daily shooting star can be in a pattern like this one. The count above is on the weekly timeframe, which means any "minor" break of that basic upward trendline cannot be ignored. Thus, we cannot ignore the thrice-broken trendline as the price action tops along the way. The actual count seems to reflect a very desperate sentiment of bullish frustration as you can see three C-Wave failures in three straight weekly candles in a row. You can discern the C-failures from the typical B-Wave price action by how long and equally-distributed the wicks are on each of the consecutive candles. C-Wave failures tend to lead to severe downward price action after enough momentum has been sapped out of the bullish trend. It is by this process that a "Zig-Zag" correction loses momentum - the C-Wave fails, thus turning the corrective structure into a "Flat," which fails again, turning the "Flat" into a "Horizontal Triangle." The entire "terminal triangle" is not decidedly different-looking than any other mid-trend triangle in the 2-Wave, 4-Wave or B-Wave positions, aside from the fact that it terminates all the way towards the very end of the converging triangular trendlines. If this were to continue higher on the second or third C-Wave attempt, then the pattern would not be one of terminal consideration because it would have finished up well before the hypothetical tip - created by its own trendlines. In this case, AAPL's horizontal triangle finishes at the convergence, then breaks a very key level support to the downside, closing below it on a weekly candle. At this point, I believe the weekly trend has changed, which has way more implications than it should for the rest of the market. This is due to the insane market cap of AAPL that keeps artificially expanding via FED corporate loan purchases, which then turn into stock splits, repurchases, etc. Is AAPL a great company? Yes. Does that mean AAPL should be included in every major index to help "stabilize things" even if these indices are categorically not supposed to represent the same area of commerce? NO! (in my humble opinion, that is.) The reason I have this opinion is because it wrecks markets. You'll see what I mean when we start seeing entirely unrelated sectors start breaking down despite the particularly bullish environment that would otherwise propel these stocks higher in the near-term. It also very much undermines the idea of free markets when we all know that there is blatant manipulation being had on a market-wide scale everyday via all the basket programs, leverage, contract printing, etc. To account for this, I tagged many unrelated sector ETFs at the bottom of the idea for good measure. In conclusion, since AAPL's apparent wave count is bearish on the weekly, points to a terminal triangle completion as of today and is representative of all completion indices at this point, I thought it relevant to share with you all in preparation for the new bear market. Lastly - the Russian conflict occurred months after the trendline breaks and terminal triangle formation. Take what you will from this. -The-Pig-AAPL NASDAQ:AAPL SP:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC NYSE:W4500 AMEX:SPY AMEX:XBI AMEX:XLU AMEX:XLE AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLP
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
15
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
G
by dailytaguy
Zendesk: M&A News pop!1Zendesk Intraday - We look to Sell at 100.59 (stop at 107.67) This stock has recently been in the news headlines for a private equity buyout imminent. Price action reacted by popping higher on yesterday's trading. Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices. Current price action faces resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 130.58-54.52 move. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 72.75 and 60.00 Resistance: 100.00 / 110.00 / 130.00 Support: 72.00 / 54.00 / 40.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
ZShort
by VantageMarkets
1
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *The US Dollar (and treasuries and bonds), energy and commodities take a tumble as equities and crypto get a boost from a lower PMI and a successful Federal Reserve bank Stress Test with hopes that inflation can start to slow down before the Core PCE report due on 06/30/22. All things considered, this is still just a technical relief rally (with just a bit of room to run) until it crosses certain levels in a sustained fashion.* Price is currently trending up at $3795 as it aims to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. Volume remains moderate and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now, indicating that there is significant support at $3706. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3938 minor resistance, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 41 after testing 38.06 support and bouncing, this reconfirms that the uptrend line from 01/27/22 is still intact; the next resistance is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 37 as it is currently breaking above 18.32 resistance; the next resistance is at 48.08. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -100 as it looks to complete a trough and break above -86.76 to form a bullish crossover; the next resistance (minor) is at -76.22. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 and forming a soft peak as Price continues to push upward, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can begin trending down as Price continues up then it would be bullish. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
BTCUSD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *Cryptos and equities are still enjoying the technical relief rally. PMI numbers came out this morning and showed a significant reduction in output largely attributed to a reduction in demand; a higher federal funds rate and quantitative tightening are two of the main reasons why and the Federal Reserve intended to bring down demand so I would say it's a good thing. The Federal Reserve also reported 2022 US bank Stress Test results today (ran a hypothetical severe recessionary scenario on 34 of the biggest banks managing over $100b in assets) and the banks passed the test meaning they had sufficient capital to endure a 'hard landing' if there is one. In the report they mentioned that they removed all but one model adjustment in this year's test because banking conditions have stabilized and macroeconomic outlook has improved. This is very arguable for several points: many European countries are currently seeing soaring inflation numbers and only just now are raising interest rates (Norway, BOE, ECB), all while there is a steepening energy and food crisis looming right over them; China is still maintaining their 'Zero Covid Policy' while becoming more aggressive in the South and East China Sea toward both Taiwan and Japan; Russia is quickly restructuring trade routes with 'friendlies' while still attacking Ukraine and further disrupting grain, fertilizer and oil supply chains causing global food shortages; and Israel is currently experiencing a political collapse. Seems like only a cynic would say that the macroeconomic outlook as improved, but here we are.* Price is currently trending up at $20.7k as it attempts to establish a local bottom at $19417 support. Volume remains moderate and has been technically shrinking for what could be ten consecutive sessions if it stays calm for a couple more hours; it also remains fairly balanced between buyers and sellers which is indicative of consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $21820, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 33 after bouncing off of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support, which implies that the uptrend is still intact in the short term; the next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 44, the next resistance is at 55.55. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -2777 as it attempts to break above -2497 minor support and cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 45 and beginning to form a soft peak as Price pushes higher, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can peak and start coming down as Price continues up, this would be bullish. If Price is able to breakout from this consolidation then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
SPY either outlier or on perfect course You can see there is a strong difference between the real cyclical bear market and the current correction. Also the primary bull market last 25 years last time from 75' till the 00'. We are now at around half cycle (13 years in). Last cycle SPX did 20x since cycle low the cycle before was around 13x (if data reliable), now we have just done 6x really underperforming. The 52 weeks MA has been the support of the bull market cycle as you can see in the chart. Hence I doubt the current correction will last for much more.
SP:SPXLong
by CFcryptoTA
10 year We must see how the markets react to this dump to the 10 yr, my gut thinks this could be a fear trade which causes money to leave risk and head into USA gov bonds. I would assume that at some point around 2.4% (618% golden ratio) a bottom will be found and the inflation narrative will be silenced for at least some time while Oil has a decent pull back to $60. Then the W5 will kick in and maybe intitially seem bullish while rates climb in a structured manor till around 3% or 3.2%. After rates hit that level inflation may start to appear again in the MSM. Once w5 really kicks in and heads towards 3.5%-4% plus this will likely be the debt market melt down. So watching DXY, stocks and crypto how this all plays out
TVC:US10Y
by Big_Mike716
2
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% BTC, 75% Cash. *SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH. A technical retracement/correction in cryptos is currently underway with DOGE (+20%) and ETH (+22%) leading the pack in the past 24 hours. Considering that the current level of this bounce is around the area of the long term uptrend line for many cryptos (suggesting that this could potentially be the bottom), it's still too early to say such things so please continue to tread with caution and remember to Dollar Cost Average into investments and out of trades during volatile times like these.* Price is currently testing $19417 support as the last support before having to test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k (which would almost certainly margin call a lot of large leveraged players). Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers in today's session if it can close in the green, we are in near perfect bull trap territory (Sunday/Monday Scaries) so please be mindful of overexposed long positions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $25652, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently attempting to reclaim support from the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support (it still hasn't technically lost support from these levels). Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 7.76, the next resistance is at 29.70. MACD remains bearish and is finally beginning to form a trough at -2964 as it is still technically testing -2497 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 40 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish; if it can peak and start to come down as Price continues its move up then this would be bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $19417 then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $21335.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETHUSD Daily TA BearishETH/USD Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash. *The House of Cards is continuing to fall in leveraged crypto land with 3AC, Celsius and Babel all either pausing or limiting withdrawals/redemptions; not to mention Microstrategy quickly approaching a margin call on their leverage long BTC position that may have actually been hit when BTC touched $17600. All that said, there is officially blood in the streets, so to all my investors out there, I'd say it's safe to start Dollar Cost Averaging in to some of your favorite shitcoins (with a long term horizon in mind).* Price is currently trending down at $985 after briefly touching $881 as cryptos continue to see selling pressure; $775.83 is the next support that was last tested (as support) in February 2018, if it falls below this level cryptos (as a whole) will likely be wiped out and have to start anew with a whole new paradigm of value. Volume is High and is currently on track to favor sellers in today's session if it can close in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1400 which coincides with the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021. RSI is currently trending down at 19.41 as it quickly approaches a test of the ATL at 17.42, a break below this level would help confirm that cryptos are essentially due for a wipeout cleansing. Stochastic regressed to a bearish crossover in today's session and is currently trending down at 2.72 as it hovers above max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -257 with no sign of trough formation as it has officially lost -197.34 support (the next support is at -318.82). ADX is currently trending up at 50 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300 as resistance. However, if Price continues to fall it will likely formally test $775.83 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1300.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
5
Reliance's Impending Bear Implosion.Crude Oil Issues, Supply Constraints, Rate hikes by Banks, Rampant Inflation, And Sanctions. These are just some of the factors which one has to consider while taking a Swing Trade or even Invest in today's market. The War may have triggered food inflation and Oil issues but the problem IS, Was, and always has been the 'Easy Money' philosophy of the United States "Fed" by way of Quantitative Easing, which in layman's terms means rampant printing of the Dollar. Here without going into a Rant I'd just like to Explain a basic Economics Rule- The law of supply and demand explains the interaction between the sellers of a resource and the buyers for that resource. The theory defines the relationship between the price of a given good or product and the willingness of people to either buy or sell it. Generally, as price increases, people are willing to supply more and demand less and vice versa when the price falls. Now how does this Rule govern the market? Basically as price increases so does the supply, and the more supply there is, the lesser the price (or downward pressure). 2008 crash saw declines of 30-50% in the value of the stocks of Blue chip companies. Were they bad businesses? No. Did their businesses started Failing or Fell 50% ? No. The economic policy behind the growth had imploded. Oftentimes what happens is, Good Politics is Bad Economics And such is the nature of markets. They rise and they fall so that new buyers can come in. Fresher Money draws in with new investors. And Bull Market fanatics get weeded out, by the grandeur and false prophecies of numbers just going one way. "In Bear markets shares Return to their Rightful Owners." Here lies the opportunity, if you are an investor and have made money in the bull market Congrats, but even the blind can do that. Real Market starts now. As a point, I'd like to mention that Rallies in Bear runs are gonna be the new normal now with stocks giving even more range and fooling people into Buying. "Dead Cat Bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 Nasdaq 1-day Rallies happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top. 9 of the top 20 S&P 500 1-day rallies Happened During the 86% drop from the 1929 top. Trying to predict and find the bottom would also be a fool's Errand as any low can easily be broken if the sentiment prevails. So folks, buckle up, It's gonna be a hell of a ride!
NSE:RELIANCE
by Sarcastic_Sharma