Get started

Bearmarket

S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
Bitcoin Market State - October 2023Following my previous update in June 2022, Bitcoin has indeed carried out most of the dead cat bounce that I've been expecting. Granted, it took longer than I thought, but the levels are still valid. This is just an update that we are indeed on track with the plan, anticipating to enter the 35k-37k price zone before the bear market continues. This zone is a strong psychological pivot, as many bear ideas become invalidated, and may bull ideas become confirmed. As some would call it, a max-pain scenario for a top. Following that, my analysis suggests that we will be seeing much lower prices before 2025. Currently I am targeting $8,800 and $5,555 for accumulation zones.
by Alien_Algorithms
BTCUSDT Potential Bearish Reversal: Targeting below 19800Analyzing the 3-day timeframe for BTC/USD, two primary scenarios arise: Bearish Outlook: Current wave XX-Z indicates a possible triple combo wave W-X-Y-XX-Z. With wave X potentially concluding, a move downwards for wave Y is anticipated. Bullish Correction: Despite a bullish market, a correction wave 2 could drive prices down to 23,700, below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. An emerging "head and shoulders" pattern supports a bearish trajectory, targeting a price equivalent to the height of the formation, indicating prices below 19,800. Recommendation: Watch for a confirming bearish candle pattern on the 1-day or 3-day chart. Ensure proper risk management and consider external influencing factors.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by tim13l
All indicators are negative for QQQLast Friday QQQ broke the upward trend line for 2023 on the daily and weekly charts - see my earlier post. Lower highs and my favourite indicators are pointing south on both the daily and weekly. Note the downward trend on MACD and RSI since June. So it will probably fall further. There's support right now around 354-355 so perhaps a small bounce first? SPX, DJI, and the big 8 are looking the same. I guess 349 would be the obvious target for QQQ? It's a further 5 points down from Friday's close, and a sticking point back in June. And all that is before we consider the effects of likely developments in the Middle East *sigh* Not trading advice. Do your own research.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by lavoriamo
BTC: The price getting rejected from the 200D SMA! It's no surprise that the price has been rejected from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) multiple times. Historically, the 200-day SMA has acted as either a support or resistance level, depending on whether the price is above or below it. Since the current price is below the 200-day SMA, there is a high likelihood that the price will continue to move lower at some point. Another bearish sign is that the price broke below the rising channel, which suggests a further decline. Here's the previous post: " Here's a Quick outlook for BTC. This week, there hasn't been much movement, and the price continues within the rising channel. Previously, we saw a move below the 200D SMA, and the price hasn't managed to break back above it as the SMA is now acting as resistance. One way to predict market changes is by using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the closing price drops below the 200-day SMA, it's likely that the market will continue to decline, and the opposite is also true. Currently, the price is below the 200-day SMA, which suggests that it may fall further until it rises above the SMA. It is also worth mentioning that a rising channel often breaks to the downside. Given the current situation where the price is below the 200D SMA and touching significant resistance while within a rising channel, it is expected that the price may experience a decline in the coming weeks. " There are several indicators and global economic events that suggest the market will continue to decline. For example, median home prices are contracting sharply, reaching levels last seen in 1970 and 2008, both years which experienced severe economic downturns. It's important to note that there are many unfilled gaps below the current price. These gaps can act as magnets and pull the price down to fill them at some point. Therefore, it's recommended to keep a close eye on them. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current market sentiment, it appears that a more significant downturn is on the horizon. This could result in revisiting prior lows (15k-16k) or even reaching new lows within the range of 10k-13k. However, after this decline, there is a good chance that the market will shift towards a bullish phase. My prediction is that BTC will reach its lowest point within the next six months, but recovery is expected by Summer 2024. It is recommended to have a strategy in place for this potential downturn. Many are optimistic about BTC's price, yet it's crucial to recognize that the occasional rallies are creating lower highs. For a robust bullish case, establishing a higher high and higher low is essential. Beyond BTC's price action, numerous indicators suggest a substantial market drop is looming. Consider, for instance, the rate of permanent job losses; each spike in this metric has been followed by a recession, and it’s escalating sharply.
Short
by MBM_Crypto
12
KAS MIGHT FALL : Bearish Divergence 📉 It's crucial to approach trading with a discerning eye. The KAS token has recently formed a significant rising wedge pattern, a bearish indicator, and to add to the complexity, it's showing signs of a bearish divergence. This double whammy serves as a warning to traders to exercise caution. 📊🚫 The Rising Wedge Pattern: Rising wedges are typically bearish patterns, suggesting a potential price decrease. However, the crypto world is known for its unpredictability, so it's wise to be cautious. 📉🐻 Bearish Divergence: Adding to the intrigue is the presence of a bearish divergence, where price forms higher highs while the corresponding oscillator (like RSI) creates lower highs. This phenomenon signals potential weakening in buying momentum. 📈📉 A Word of Caution: It's crucial for traders to tread carefully when considering positions on KAS: Risk Management: Employ rigorous risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, to safeguard your investments. Thorough Research: Always conduct thorough research into the fundamentals and recent news related to KAS to make informed decisions. Patient Entry: Should you consider short positions, exercise patience and wait for a confirmation of the bearish trend. This might involve a retest of the wedge border. Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is known for its unique characteristics, and patterns can be informative, but they don't always guarantee outcomes. Market dynamics, liquidity, and unpredictable events can influence prices, and traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly. While the rising wedge and bearish divergence are worth noting, they are not the sole determinants of market movements. Trade wisely, and always be prepared for the unexpected. Happy trading, 📉 ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
Short
by AlexWhale
1
Bullrun📈 : Gaussian Channels + HalvingGaussian Channels: Defining Price Ranges Gaussian Channels, a technical analysis tool, provide traders with a visual representation of price movement within specific boundaries. These channels help us understand Bitcoin's typical price oscillations and set the stage for potential breakout points. The Halving Effect: Supply Reduction and Bullish Sentiment Bitcoin halving events occur approximately every four years, reducing the rewards for miners by half. Halving results in a decrease in the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, promoting scarcity and potentially driving up its value. Historically, each halving has been followed by a bullish market, indicating the correlation between these events and price surges. Breaking Bearish Structures: Shifting Market Sentiment Observing the recent break of bearish patterns is a positive sign. When a market transitions from bearish to neutral or bullish, it opens up new opportunities for traders and investors. Combined Signals: Predicting the Next Bull Run The combined signals from Gaussian Channels, Bitcoin's halving history, and a shift in bearish structures suggest that the next bull run might be approaching. Traders and investors can use these indicators to make informed decisions, prepare for potential volatility, and position themselves strategically in the market. Risk Management: A Crucial Aspect As always, risk management remains a vital component of trading and investing. The crypto market is known for its unpredictability, so it's essential to have a well-thought-out strategy and use appropriate risk mitigation techniques. Conclusion: Navigating Bitcoin's Journey The confluence of Gaussian Channels, Bitcoin's halving cycle, and the shift in bearish patterns paints an intriguing picture of what might lie ahead for the cryptocurrency. While no prediction is foolproof in the world of crypto, these indicators provide a roadmap for traders and investors. As we look forward to the potential onset of a new bull run, remember that staying informed, adapting your strategy, and managing risk are the keys to success in the ever-evolving crypto landscape. 🚀📊🌐 ❗See related ideas below❗ Don't forget to like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments! 💚🚀💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2
The S-Pattern - Where or Why Does This Happen?Hey folks - been a while since I made one of these (not too much interesting movements in the crypto markets lately, honestly), but after a long period of inactivity in XTZ, *something* seems to have triggered a move. There's a few people wondering where this spike in Tezos came from - unless the transaction was triggered by literally one wallet (unlikely since that would have been identified by now), we can only really speculate as to who or what "bought the dip". But generally speaking, the extreme verticality of the "pump" suggests that this was an automated trade or possibly someone with access to a button to make large hyper-coordinated trades. (If a bunch of people get together and buy-in together the price usually rises as a slope over time, not a spike.) Since we are in a bear market right now, the rules of the game for investors changes a bit. But it's important to remind yourself of the fundamentals of supply/demand and incentives in markets themselves doesn't change. So based on that, we can make a few educated guesses: 1. Bear markets don't necessarily mean that there is no money to invest - lots of people exited the market at the beginning of this bear market, converting their assets into cash. (These are the folks who quietly sold at the top and can be considered "smart money".) They are waiting for the market to bottom out as the hype fades away. So the money to invest itself is there (it is always there, really) - it's just unsure where or when to get back in right now. Someone or something made the guess that *this* is the bottom now, in other words. 2. The vertical part of the S-pattern suggests (automated or not) large-volume investors getting in, while the gradual slope downwards back to its original state is likely smaller investors exiting out of the ecosystem. (Many have expressed frustrations with the coin not having moved in a while and have been waiting for moments like these as an excuse to exit.) This is primarily the way markets "cleans" itself of short-term players and the reason why institutional investors often beat retail ones in the long - they have the means and patience to wait until the very bottom of the "valley". (Another reason why it's important to only invest what you can afford to lose.) 3. You have to be careful of getting your news from the media or social media because during down markets most talks and discussions will be about how bad the markets are - which is the obvious thing to complain about during those times. The negative sentiment eventually becomes a self-fulling prophecy and the price will continue to dip until the "losers" have left the scene. If you think about it, the only people who have a reason to complain are the ones that bought at the top and looking to recoup their losses. The ones that were in early, holding for long-term, or sold at the right time (lucky them!) don't really have much of a reason to engage with doom-spiral content. 4. And finally - smart-money investors look for primarily two things: A reason to get back in (will not happen with ponzi or vaporware projects, which is a good thing), and the right time to get back in. Even if they have done their research and believe in a project strongly, when half the people in the ecosystem are in a panicked state, it doesn't give them much confidence to get back in. At least not yet. So they wait until the price flatlines and things get quiet - are the folks threatening to exit gone yet? This is the reason why big rallies often happen unexpectedly after long periods of no movements, rather than a "rebound" after a massive dip. It is the waiting game smart investors play to get the best spread between buying low and selling high. -- A lot of this will feel weird and unfamiliar because I don't think crypto really has really gone through a "real" bear market - it was a product of the post-2008 0-interest rate era and a lot of the rallies were sustained by VC and hype money, which fueled a lot of irrational behavior during the last few cycles as a whole. (Including FTX.) But now that that era has come to an end, what comes next? A bit of spring cleaning in the markets is in order - I think. A lot of people have been waiting for this moment to come for a very long time, so it could possibly be one of the biggest rebounds in history...but only time will tell. Good luck, folks. 🤞
Long
by RyanTanaka
AMAZON --- is down over 40%! 2031 Till next ATH?The drawdown visualisation is a great tool to determine the characteristic of previous and current market conditions in whatever asset you are looking it. Here I have drawn up AMZN priced in CPI index units rather than notional US Dollar's. For what purpose do people allocate money to equities... but to grow a nest-egg for the your future. But timing is everything And we can see that AMZN is currently down over 40% priced against goods/services/expenditures Effectively you have gotten 40% poorer (assuming 100% allocation at the top... unlikely I know ,,, but for illustrative purposes still useful to know. .. And the point is how during a bull market, the price doesn't deviate away from the high that much. in 2022 we have already been down 60% are we facing a price reset for risk and stalling market for the rest of the decade. It has happened many times before, so we have to assume the old adage History Rhyming.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by BallaJi
Fetch.ai (FET) Price Dips in September – October's Direction UncThe price of Fetch.ai (FET) saw a decline following its failure to breach the $0.27 resistance zone on September 3rd, initiating a bearish trend. The situation remains precarious, as failure to secure a close above the $0.23-$0.24 Fib resistance range could signal the continuation of the bearish trend, potentially leading to a significant drop. Approaching the Ascending Support Trendline Since its rejection from the $0.27 resistance area on September 3rd, Fetch.ai (FET) has experienced a downward trajectory. However, it’s not all bad news. FET's price has been following an ascending support trendline since June 2022. Recent validations of this trendline occurred on August 17th and 22nd. These instances were marked by long lower wicks, which indicates buying pressure. The pace of increase accelerated after the last validation, propelling the FET price to $0.27 on September 3rd. However, it failed to breach this resistance level, which has persisted since May, resulting in the ongoing downward movement. In order for FET to commence a new bull run, it will need to surpass the 100 Exponential Moving Average. The 100 EMA acts as a mobile support and resistance. Currently, the 100 EMA is above the price, therefore the indicator works as a resistance. Williams %R is another indicator that we should look at. The Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that gauges the market. If the indicator is below -80, it means FET is oversold and expected to bounce back. If it is above -20, it is overbought and expected to fall back again. Currently Williams %R is approaching oversold levels, which coincides well with the ascending support trendline. Looking Ahead: FET is approaching an ascending support line, and the Williams %R is approaching oversold levels, which make a rebound on the table. However, for a rebound to take place, the price needs to break above the 100 EMA first.
by cryptohopper
The Banking Crisis and the Bank of America CorporationIntroduction The Bank of America Corporation is one of the most famous of Warren Buffets holdings. It is right behind Berkshire’s Apple holdings in size and it has only grown during the recent banking turmoil. This is while he is “dumping” other banks because of red flags in their financials. That is beginning to look like a bad decision based on the technical of BAC. Source: markets.businessinsider.com The United States and the world appears to be facing a very serious financial crisis and we are in the stages where equities are still slow moving. The real impulse will begin when a lower timeframe rally is shorted and the news gets apocalyptic. BAC is ultimately on the chopping block. Analysis This is a pared down version of my momentum charts where I try to get the most out of a trend by riding the impulse. As such I don’t have a trade on because price has not slipped the 200 yet. If you want a full breakdown it is in the linked idea on Matic and Solana. Now, due to how fast bank failures can happen I might miss this trade being to patient. The MACD and Signal are below zero on the mothy. That is bad in itself. Price has slipped the 50 month, that is also bad in itself. Both of these things have occurred as BAC is dropped out of a falling wedge. Also very bad. BAC has also set a lower high from the high before the 2008 financial crisis. That is catastrophically bad because it sets BAC either a W bottom or an ABC correction. The W is shown on the main chart and the ABC correction is shown below. The wider view A banking crisis is the apparent reason bitcoin was created in the first place. It also lead to a pump in silver and gold once there was a “paper” decline in price. I remember reading the news stories from the 08 crash were people were selling their precious metals for wide margins on eBay and other platforms while the exchanges were selling silver derivatives for cheaper and cheaper.. As such, another banking system crisis should see the anti-fiats begin to pump once the thrash has happened. I would expect a massive risk off situation but somehow bitcoin and other cryptos look bullish. If is a very schizophrenic time to being doing TA. It is also a crazy time to trade. I don’t know if I will be engaging in capital destruction because of bad trade or just because my exchange collapses. Most likely I will buy the dip in paper silver and ride the gains up. Dark times with a silver lining.
NYSE:BACShort
by This_Guhy