BITCOIN IC CONSOLIDATING AROUND $30KCryptocurrency as a whole has seen hell in recent times. However, BITCOIN has been able to maintain its position as the king of the market.
Bitcoin is trading within a descending TRIANGLE & CONSOLIDATING around $30K and below the weekly trendline that started from the 2018 PEAK of $20K.
QUESTIONS:
1.Will BTC be able to break back above the trendline any time soon?
2. Will the $30K consolidation hold as resistance to follow by bull run?
3.Do we expect BTCto continue the fall?
KINDLY share your thoughts, like, comment and FOLLOW.
Bearmarket
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/19/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2022
- PR High: 11923.25
- PR Low: 11883.75
- NZ Spread: 88.50
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 456.33
- Volume: 42k
- Open Int: 251k
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -29.0% (Rounded)
! GETTING CLOSE TO THE 'MAGICAL' -30% !
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 14105
- Mid: 12960
- Short: 11820
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
SPY DIE PART 3Looks like we might get another leg lower before a big relief rally starting in June (most likely during OPEX).
20sma continued decline.
HUGE sell off today after JPOW's remarks yesterday. Why were they not reflected in price yesterday?
"I thought we were gonna have a relief rally after yesterday's bullish run!"
Vanna, Charm, dealer positioning, hedges unwinding.
It's the same story over and over and over.
Bulls needed to get a huge run over the 20sma and recapture it to the upside. They failed to do that.
The "rally" that took place over the last week was weak. And it's ominously telling of the further decline that is to come.
Seasonality is usually bullish to end the month, but without recapture of that 20d sma, further decline is coming. The lows will be revisited and will likely grind down lower.
This is a grinding bear market with occasional rallies here and there. I have a feeling the next face ripper rally will be around June OPEX, where people are going to be overly hedged and all that unwinding into OPEX will lead to explosive movement upwards (coupled with tech earnings imo).
Supports listed as always.
Unless bulls can explosively move markets higher into tomorrow OPEX and beyond into next week, this market will continue downward as listed above.
Best of luck traders.
If you're a long term investor, just be in cash.
You remain in cash until FED reverses course.
There are NO exceptions to this rule.
DO NOT FIGHT THE FED!
I will reiterate: The FED HAS BEEN CLEAR! They are removing support/liquidity from the markets - the same support/liquidity that propped up the markets to bubble like levels especially the past two years.
Now is not the time to yolo on calls. And now is not the time to yolo on puts either. It is a grinding bear. Only experienced traders should trade this.
The rest of you should be in cash again as listed above.
You're welcome.
BTC Bear Bottom CheatsheetFirstly, apologies for the size of the chart - I had to fit in 3 cycles, so the size is a little small. Also, ignore all Fib levels above the 1. I forgot to remove them.
The chart in itself is very simple, and as close to a cheat-sheet as you are likely to find, in my opinion.
I have used 3 indicators to produce this chart:
1. Fibonacci Retracements
2. 200 Week Moving Average
3. RSI
If we look at the past two BTC bear markets, the 2013-2015 cycle, and the 2017-2019 cycle, we can see 3 things:
1. The -0.5 Fib level, with the cycle top as the 1 and the mid-cycle bottom as the 0, is the bear market bottom.
2. Although the bottom may wick below it, reaching the -0.5 Fib, the 200 Week MA is the support line, and the wick below it will be very brief, and it will return above it as support almost immediately.
3. When the RSI touches the Oversold line on the Weekly timeframe, it correlates with the two indicators above, and indicates a bottom for the bear market.
So, looking at all that, where are we now?
Well, almost there, is where. We don't have far to go. IF we wick down to the -0.5 Fib, before bouncing back and holding the 200 Weekly MA, we're looking at ~$19,000 bottom. If we don't wick down and hold the 200, we're looking at ~$22k-$24k bottom.
Remember, anything can happen in crypto - black swan and unforeseen events, but this is as good as predicting the future as I can do. :)
PS - This is not financial advice. ;)
Bear flag with scary target of 20K We have this scary bear flag on the 4 hourly that nobady is looking at. Bear flag break-outs are usually the most accurate break-outs from all patterns.Thats why i entered short position at 29.9k but we have so much support under my entery price so i am going to take my profits at 27.3k,25.5k, 24k and possibly at 20k.
Be smart, trade safe and i wish you good luck.
What do you think about this scary bear flag ?
Feel free to leave a comment.
If you like my ideas please follow me and like because you can always find something interesting on my profile, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading.
DON'T SELL YOUR CRYPTO
BTC TO THE MOON!!!
Bitcoin BearMarket Begin As per Past Date So Must Read this IDEA#Bitcoin Bear Market Alert
- As per Recent Data & Analysis we are In #BearMarket for sure because all Past bear Market was minimum 1 Years ( In this one year BTC was test Bottom )
- Everyone who is claiming Bull market, Misguiding. Truth is BearMarket already Started ( so Do your own research before starting any trade. because Fund is your not Influencers )
- Bear Cycle may end in April 2023 ( As per Last data this bear market will end before April mean to say that in this time interval we can see Bitcoin Bottom for Sure so this time is best for Accumulate more Bitcoin at every Big Dip.)
- We can see #BTC May test 15k-18k Bottom ( This Area may be the Bottom of Bitcoin Because No one Predicted 100% bottom area so the best strategy is to Buy at every big dip and do DCA )
Hope you understand this analysis.
do please LIKE and Share and appreciate
Thank you
EUR/CAD: UpdateEuro/Canadian Dollar went from $1.3471 CAD from $1.3411 CAD in this bearish movement that I believe that this will be an opportunity to short.
I use Fibonacci level and I see that EUR/CAD make reaction in the 0.618% Fibonacci Gold zone and for that, I entry in the early in my analysis of my iphone. But now, this it's by computer now. Also, I move the SL to $1.3485 pips to cut loss as my SL was $1.3517 CAD to cut loss an also protect pips of cuts loss. And also ,I update my take profit to $1.3340 CAD.(+131 pips) of potential to earn.
This it's the H4 timeframe and the trend it's clearly bearish in this par.
In Daily timeframe, we formed like triple top and that it's a bearish continuation side in this bear market what EUR/CAD move it.
So guys, at the moment, we have approximately 56 pips earned in this trade.
I hope that this update work you!!!
NASDAQ 100 (Fibonacci Analysis) Base Case: "The Final Rally"
Blue dots provides good dates & price levels to enter short or long position(s).
Idea (1):
LONG
Entry Price: 11,500.00
Entry Date: June 6, 22'
Price Target: ~$14,350.00
Date Target: Mid to Late Aug. 22'
Idea (2):
SHORT
Entry Price: ~$14,350.00
Entry Date: Mid to Late Aug. 22'
Price Target: $12,800.00
Date Target: Early October 22'
Idea (3):
LONG
Entry Price: $12,800.00
Entry Date: Early October 22'
Price Target: $15,350.00
Date Target: Late Jan. 23'
Idea (4):
SHORT
Entry Price: $15,350.00
Entry Date: Late Jan. 23'
Price Target: ~$10,000.00
Date Target: May 2023
Idea (5):
SHORT
Entry Price: $14,000.00
Entry Date: Early March 2023
Price Target: $10,000.00
Date Target: May 2023
Bitcoin to $23,700 - $24k USDI see Bitcoin dropping to $23,700 - $24k USD , to test the pivotal COVID-19 anchored VWAP. This target could move up or down slightly as time progresses but generally with the current bearish markets, I think it is a reasonable target. The trigger is a monthly candle close below all green pivotal anchored aVWAPs highlighted on the chart.
Nasdaq on its way to 2019/20 high ?Is anybody with me on this one? Just throwing out this idea of a 5 wave downwards structure bringing us exactly on top of pre corona highs. Valuations would be insane when we would actually go that low. MASSIVE buy imo. Keep that cash ready, if you as me atm. I'm in 70% cash atm, rest is in beaten down tech/growth and some big tech
Stay safe
Relief rally close to completion As the "death cross" trade on BTC and other risk on charts completed, by Bitcoin hitting the low target of 48k (could still extend to 52k ), situation on daily chart is ripe for a return to downtrend. Attempts on 200 daily MA failing, copying 2018 May- July setups, especially considering Weekly chart where one of the relief rallies ended up hitting from below 50 Weekly MA and then heading down to 200 WMA . Before we get so low next target I believe we will reach before May's US Fed's int rates hikes, is our last low area 33-36k, where we could stay a little bit longer depending on Russia/Ukraine situation. Eventually I strongly believe price will seek out 200WMA in the next 6-8 months so around 22k , depending when it happens exactly.
BTCUSDT Double Top in formationBTCUSDT has made a retest to peak of the channel, local supply zone. Now we can see a potential double top. The target remains the same for a 2-D zigzag swing downward. This pattern will be confirmed if price action breaks the neckline in the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The Ultimate Falling Wedge! Here's a quick look at the weekly chart for BTC. As we can see, the price broke below 30k and is currently struggling to get a daily close above 30k. A weekly close below 30k would be a further confirmation of the bear market and will probably lead to further price dump. There's next to no support betweek 29k and 20k and if the price doesn't manage to get back above 30k a trip down to 20k is very likely.
Is this giong to be the pattern in which the price will continue to oscillate for the upcoming months? - Definitely one to keep an eye on!
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What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?:
"A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts.
Key Takeaways for Falling wedges:
1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods.
2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction.
3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals."
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
BTC more market turmoil in the make [short] We expect more market turmoil?
First a bit sunny weather coming days... However.. We keep our bias pretty bearisch,
BTC needs to reclaim at least 34K to get some bullish outlooks for the longer term.
Still we can see in elliot wave perspective, that the premium cycle is not over yet. Therefore I strongly believe we are going to trade below 30's very soon!
So This weekend and early next week, retail fomo buyers will absorb the liquidity, and push price in the B wave higher.. However, we strongly believe that the rally will fail.. and price will go back south!
Retest ATH? What do you think? Comment below :)
Bitcoin to Test $26.8k SupportBitcoin's correction has been swift, breaking down cleanly through $30k and finding support ~$27k.
Strong rejection on 6hr chart at 20 EMA (approx $31k)
Expecting some sideways action and retest of that support given the rapid connection of the crypto total market cap and broader economic headwinds.
CPI (consumer inflation) remains extremely high, it fell within expectations (finally). Unfortunately PPI (producer inflation) came in higher than expected and increased 11% year over year.
The Fed's approach with another 50 bps rate hike is imminent in June as they look at lagging economic indicators that reflect a "healthy" economy with low unemployment.
MACD reflecting bullish divergence, which is likely setting up a bull trap, as market bearish fundamentals remain firmly in place.
While a relief rally is likely following the $26.8k test, the markets are not reversing so long as the Fed remains hawkish as it attempts to rein inflation in.
Price action tending to move in $3k chunks, so expecting a bounce from $27k back to $33k seems likely. If BTC continues its bear market rally past $33k, look for probable rejection at $36k.
SPY, ESBattle of the 20d SMA (blue line) is inevitable going into OPEX and even beyond.
The old adage of "Sell in May, Go away" has been in full effect since the week after April OPEX. Failure of the bulls to recapture the 20sma with two consecutive closes has contributed to the decline (one of many factors).
Again, price will be a combination of many things:
technicals (what we're pointing out)
liquidity
sentiment
fundamentals
macro
Fundamentals are starting to matter in an age where the FED is not providing endless liquidity anymore (QE).
They are actually decreasing liquidity (QT) and reducing balance sheet of assets.
So we know the big picture here.
The 20d sma is declining, but that does not mean price cannot quickly move upwards from here.
If anything, we can expect a game of chicken at the 20d sma (as jam croissant would say) - where bulls and bears alike are battling for control.
We are reaching a critical window here for bulls heading into OPEX. Supportive flows will help bulls IF they can get some kind of rally above the 20d sma on two consecutive closes. That will kick start bear rally #2.
If bulls cannot regain control and there are continued closes below the 20d sma by 05/27/22, then we may be in for more decline.
Even with the big picture in mind, counter-trend rallies will be brutal, taking out stops on both sides.
Be careful here in the short term friends.
Long term, as said - until FED pivots, nothing has changed macro wise. Trend is down until proven otherwise.
The 20d sma and price is just one piece of the puzzle.
Ultimately, price is truth and has to be respected though.
Levels are posted for supports.
For ES: 4040 --> 3980 --> 3850 --> 3720 --> 3640 --> 3500 per Wifey on Twitter. Give him a Follow @ WifeyAlpha.
Rough spy levels 404 --> 398 --> 385-383 --> 375-372 --> 365-363 --> 352-350.
Upside will be 4040 --> 4125 --> 4270 --> 4360 -->4410 --> 4500 on ES
404 --> 410 --> 425 --> 435 --> 440 --> 448-450 on SPY relatively
TLDR:
Bulls need to regain control of 20sma at levels posted above in the next couple weeks (ESPECIALLY week after OPEX). If not, big trouble and more decline incoming til June OPEX.
Best of luck traders.
BNB LONG TERM OUTLOOKSo we are officially in a bear market, the divergence is enough proof followed by a break in the ichimoku cloud. All we can do now is to wait for another divergence or a strong break out to the top side for a next bull run. We do not suggest anyone to buy and hold long term. Short term buys ahead of draw backs. WE DO NOT SUGGEST BUYING NOW
#Notafinancialadvice