$BTC Fib Channel & Fibonacci Retracement AnalysisHere is a clearer visual analysis of where I think Bitcoin will be going. The bear flag formation from 35k and 48k has been confirmed and it looks like we could be going down to the next fib channel support which is around the 32k price range. If the 33k - 32k breaks the next support that Bitcoin must hold would have to be at arnd the 29k to 28k levels in which a possible dead cat bounce could happen. However, this could be a start for of bigger Bitcoin correction possibly all the way back down to retest 20k - 19k which I hope and doubt will be the case. I will likely be in shorts this week as opposed to my bullish nature of longing.
Bearmarket
what is a bear market in cryptoyou'd think that a bear market is a downtrend ? well, no, a downtrend is a downtrend
a bear market, is when retails have CAPITULATED, when prices dump and doesn't bounce back hard, when prices keep on moving sideways, CONSOLIDATING, making traders lose their mind for months/years, because everything is moving sideways, no big short to play, no big long swings to play either
that's what a bear market is (to me), a market consolidating, going sideways for MONTHS/YEARS
which would be actually amazing to peacefully accumulate while most retails will give up on investing in crypto because they will have lost their shit and lost faith in crypto
this is just my personal opinion, not a financial advice
it's simply my perspective shared to you
Following the S&P500 waves to the bottomThe big moves this prior week call into question where we could possibly be. Are the recession fears valid and will the market tank for the remainder of the year or is the bottom truly near? Let us study what Primary C could possibly look like.
DATE TARGET
Primary wave A’s length tends to contribute 30-40% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A was 35 days long. This means Cycle wave 2 could last between 87.5 and 116.6 days long. Primary wave C tends to contribute 35-40% of the length of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 is 87 days long, wave C would contribute 30 to 34 days of it. If Cycle wave 2 is 116 days long, wave C would contribute 40 to 46 days of it. Primary wave C began on March 29, 2022. Potential end days based on this paragraph of analysis would be:
30 days is May 11
34 days is May 17
40 days is May 25
46 days is June 3
This means the bottom should occur no later than June 3.
The length of Primary wave C tends to be 107% to 171% of Primary wave A’s length. With Primary A being 35 days long, C could be 37 to 60 days long. 37 days long would be May 20. Through the incorporation of the prior paragraph, wave C could possibly end between May 20 and June 3.
PRICE TARGET
Primary wave A’s movement tend to contribute 40-70% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A dropped 703.97 points. This means Cycle wave 2 could drop between 1005.67 and 1759.93 points putting the bottom between 3058.69 and 3812.95. Primary wave C tends to contribute 60-68% of the movement of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1005.67 points, wave C would drop 603.40 to 683.85 of it. This would place the bottom between 3953.45 and 4033.90. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1759.93 points, wave C would drop 1055.96 to 1196.75 of it. This would place the bottom between 3440.55 and 3581.34. So far, our probable bottom could lie between 3440.55 and 4033.90.
Primary wave C’s movement also moves 126-196% beyond that of wave A. This means wave C could drop 887.00 points from where wave A began (4818.62 was starting point) to 1379.78. This would put the bottom between 3438.84 and 3931.62. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3440.55 and 3931.62.
Another statistic is the ratio between Primary wave A’s movement and Primary C. Wave A’s movement tends to be 0.63 to 1.35 times greater than wave C. This means wave C could drop between 521.456 and 1117.41. This would place the bottom between 3519.89 and 4115.84. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3519.89 and 3931.62.
Lastly, the ratio at which Primary wave B and wave C move in relation to wave A can also be considered. This ratio is normally 0.32 to 0.50. In the current scenario, wave B moved 74.24% of wave A’s movement. This means wave C could move 148.48% to 232.00% of wave A. This is calculated in relation to the level at which wave A started (4818.62). Wave C could drop 1045.25 to 1633.21 from 4818.62. This would put the bottom between 3185.41 and 3773.37.
Based on all of the analysis found here, the bottom should occur between 3519.89 and 3773.37 during a timeframe between May 20 and June 3.
I will provide at least one more analysis once I determine where Intermediate wave 3 occurred. If it occurred at the point identified, then intermediate wave 5 can last no longer than 7 days because that would be the length of the wave 3 which is the shortest wave. This would put the bottom no later than May 13, which heavily contradicts this entire analysis. This contradiction does not make sense which leads me to believe we will still experience a significant market drop this coming week.
NOT THE BEST TIME TO HOLD BTC PT.2 Btc continues to decline and some people seems to forgot what the defenition of bear market is. How to know if this is a bear market? 50MA goes below 200MA and price is below 200MA. Simple rules right? Usually it works for 1D charts. And what about 3D charts?
Bigger timeframe = less false signals. And we about to have our 3rd death cross somewhere in the middle of May. Are you ready? As I said earlier it's not the best time to hold btc and other crypto as well. Maybe this time would be different? Maybe, but I would not ignore such thing.
Here is what happend after the death cross in 2014 - 55% decline
And this is 2018. Quite noticable corrections right?
Are we going to get another -50% dicount? Summer is going to be hot 😈
BITCOIN is setting for a big resetI expect Bitcoin to be in a bear market for the next 2-3 years. Big reset is coming in Bitcoin and no one expects it. Take your profit off the market and wait the right moment to get in. People like Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood will loose hell a lot of a money and once Bitcoin reach a $21000 a margin call will start to hit this guys. Be prepared!
US100: read the descriptionAs previously posted ideas.
- Inflation is still high (check)
- Rates keep increasing. (check)
- bear market rally (check)
Keep shorts, reduce leverage, and short every spike. The first target of 12.000 ish is soon to print. Next would be a bear market rally, then we are vomiting again.
If you look at what happened at NASDAQ nordic, we got a flash crash because one market participant accidentally sold all positions at once. It reversed back quickly, but it gave an indication of what is about to come. This means that market participants are selling positions quietly, but accidentally revealing themselves.
I take this as a clear indication of market participants positioning themselves to reduce their holdings, while retail buys up.
This will end badly.
Short every spike and do not buy the dip.
BTCUSDT 34.5k expected till daily closeBTCUSDT 34.5k expected till daily close. Oscillators: Ehler's Fisher Transform & Fisher Stochastic Center of Gravity. One more leg downward expected wich expected target at 34.5 is in convergence with the trajectory speculated on Fisher Transform trigger probability. This target was previously speculated on Fibonacci Retracement as we can see in previous posts. Overbought condition shows at 30M on Ehler's Fisher Stochastic CG.
DXY hits levels not seen since 2017Yet the market rallies. Small retracement of the DXY... Last time the fed raised rates by 50bps in 2000, DXY hit highs. I believe we still have room for upside. Possibly taking out the high of 1984. With certain commodities being as volatile as they are, no reason the dollar can't see 40 year highs. I dont trust this rally- not yet.
BITCOIN -Wedge,A release from weak bearHello everyone
After over a week in a weak bear trend, now we can hope for this wedge pattern to have a breakout to upper channel for BTCUSDT. Because of the doji bar of yesterday and lack of info of today it does not seems like a good time to analyze BTC, but since we have a good context and we are close to our weekly trend line it seems fine.
We have support levels of 38000$ and 36000$ down below ,plus the weekly trend line, and for the resistance levels we have 39500$ & 41200$ up ahead.Since we can see long shadows for the past 4 bars in 4 hours chart, we will witness the price reaches our support level of 38000$ and then we may have the price bounces of.
For now, scalping is my plan,until I have a signal bar that I can rely on.
BTC/USD: Monthly overview in the Bitcoin macrotrendBitcoin it's forming a possible bearish movement that could to lead to the previously price around to $29,387 USD in this support line. Meanwhile, we expect that Bitcoin continue descending this market structure to find up sell during the next month to sell
Remember to know what happen in the global economy in the influence of U.S. Dollar about the interest rates hikes and tightening in the U.S. monetary policy and interest rates hikes in the global economy to take in note in Forex market.
BITCOIN-Hedge Funds Watching This LevelMartyBoots here. I have been trading for 16 years and I am here to share my ideas with you to help the Crypto space.
"IF" Bitcoin is bearish beyone the next 6 month candle and wants to actually break down then this is the BIG level to watch . We in CryptoCheck intend to be prepared to catch it
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Bitcoin falling wedge One can draw a variety of chart patterns for BTC at this point and I believe there is at least some truth to most of them but today I wanted to share a falling wedge that has been forming over the past months. We have recently failed to break out of this pattern and see now heading towards the support at around 30k after a potential breakdown of the bear flag that BTC has traded in since the beginning of ‘22. I believe that if we do go down to the 30k region, we will hold it as support and finally push through the upper resistance line. When this happens we will likely see a strong uptrend followed by another alt season. For now accumulate and wait.
BRITISH POUND- Bears are in controlHello everyone.
The triangle formation on GBPUSD is broken and as predicted,the price have felled( lower than I Expected).Now, I believe the price will hit the support level of 1.275$ ,then we may have couple of days of range in the market( a final bear flag pattern maybe)and another fall to lower level by the end of the month. I mean we have the perspective, structure and context of a bear market ,So why not.
Unless we have some good news from the government.
Our next support level is 1.275$ on daily and resistance level is 1.289$
Bitcoin - Welcome to the bear market!Keep it plain, simple and minimize the noise!
Here we see a gigantic ascending triangle, with the bottom acting as a strong support since 2020.
Vice-versa with the top of the triangle acting as a strong resistance.
We have now officially broken the support.
The top of the triangle is now acting as support with the bottom now resistance.
If we stay in the range we are currently in - it will be a very slow, boring and bloody 2022.
If we lose this support, the volatility will be wild - expect flash dumps and blood!
I personally think we will correct to about $25,000USD - however I am hoping for the best to pick up buy orders at $20,000USD
Wish me luck!
At the moment - the market is sideways, choppy and RISKY.
I have various different set-ups I'm watching and always waiting for confirmations of each one BEFORE entering a trade.
Bearish 2022?
What do you think?
Comment your ideas below : )
SPX500Decision time soon, are we in a 1,2 1,2 EW wave pattern that is bullish leading to 5,130-5,200 wave 3 target?
Or do we loose critical support now and start the bear market, nuke to 3,200.
I discuss in my analysis why I'm leaning towards option 1 where we hit W3 soon to 5130.
Whats your opinion? Comment below.. Thanks and BigMike loves you.
Bearish will dominate..Drop down to 23K or belowBear market is going to make the big move this month and and the next few we are officially in the bear market. Even so Bitcoin will short it down to 23K happens I’ll say about may or June.
In order to hit 80-100K bitcoin need to short it low as possible; 23,20 or 15K will take it to the higher level moon, but for this month Bitcoin been consolidating and bulls had been struggling.. bears are putting too much pressure and sells to take off. Should look forward the major support to break and have the bears dominate the market. The big move for the bears are coming.. Bitcoin won’t go back up anytime soon until the bear market is over.
If buyers looking for the buy then I highly suggest wait until it hits around 23-20K area as a good demand pivot point strong buy, if you were still at the buy even if it’s short please secure your profits before the bears makes there big move.
Disney's Troubled Waters$DIS has been in a slow decline since March 2021 ATH.
Recent political winds have shifted and Florida is rescinding the "Reedy Creek" special purpose district that's been in place since 1967 following partisan policymaking.
The most recent declines this week are not indicative of the much broader weakening of consumer sentiment, more a doubling down and reinforcement of the economic headwinds corporations are facing in light of rampant inflation and a Federal Reserve that is no longer able to accomodate loose monetary policies.
Given the likelihood of central banks taking dramatic steps in the coming months and major economic indicators screaming correction, it's not surprising to see companies like Disney & Netflix show significant weakness as consumers curtail spending.
This appears to be more of a leading indicator of corporate valuations coming down... similar to the declines at the outset of 2020 before the pandemic really took hold of the global economy.
Expect $DIS to test the 200 EMA around $91 in the next two months.
Further bearish price action is expected to the March 2020 $79 level.
Depending on the broader market's direction and significant recession risk, as the Fed begins divesting assets from its balance sheets along with rate hikes not seen in over a decade... Disney may see even further retraction given its reliance on retail consumer spending behaviors.
Recent relevant market pullbacks:
1. Dot.com bubble w/ ~65% retracement
2. Housing bubble with a near 60% retracement prior to Federal Reserve quantitative easing and near zero interest rates.
Bear market drop. Part 2 of 3 :: US Stock MarketsSo, we've had the relief rally from the March panic lows.
"Market Internals" are now displaying everything other than strong, healthy bull market characteristics...
(look 'em up)...
This means a sustained rally from here is currently unlikely.
First thing to be tested , is obviously the March lows, probably by June/July time.
With the expectation that we drop more into the Fall period.
Obviously, I could be completely wrong.
But right now, if someone keeps coughing in your face, you take a step back.