Get started

Bearmarket

AUDUSD DOWNTREND CONTINUATION FOLLOWING USD INTEREST RATES 09/23AUDUSD has been in a bear market July 2023. Price stalled out and ranged since August 2023. We have since seen bulls try to break out of this 3-month range and failed every time. The resistance is around 0.6530, which is yet to be broken. We recently have seen a strong rejection of that resistance following last weeks USD interest rates. The Australian Dollar has been a weak currency in the basket of majors for several months this year and the United States Dollar has been getting stronger. I am awaiting my trigger just below 0.64159 and am a bit late to the action so my P/L will not be as ideal as I planned but I will take what I can get and still be realistic with the target which is sitting at 0.6360 lows which is also where many longer term buyers may have their stop losses if the uptrend doesn't work out in their favor. I will be utilizing a trailing stop loss along the progression of the trade and have my hard stop around today's daily highs in case it does not work out in my favor. If the trade fails then the price may go back into chop or could be a possible reversal towards range highs of 0.64159.
Short
by bajapips
Nasdaq 2000 top vs Current Market.As Rektember draws to a close The seasonal's actually point up for Q4 Santa Rallies are real market phenomenons! But is this time is different? Could we have actually topped?? Compared to the tech wreck of 2000 You can see the initial drawdown was around minus 40% from the top We then got a mini bull run, a recovery wave. About the same 40% in an upward reversal move. The 2000 downdraft and recovery occurred over a shorter time frame than what has transpired so far today.. The current market structure has more volume / price action that has taken place below current prices.. This in theory should provide more support. The market was caught off guard regarding the Fed wanting to stay higher for longer (I'm not sure why!) ... and seemed to have been pricing more aggressive rate cuts sooner in 2024 This could cause a repricing of risk and expectations. Chamath Palihapitiya has told his CEO's to have adequate cash into 2025, but has revised his thinking and expects they need to have enough cash to get them through to 2026! If more captains of industry come around to this way of thinking... the ways to generate cash on hand is to withdraw from spending and possibly laying off extra capacity in the workplace! You see how this thinking feeds on itself and into the broader economy... If we look back in a few years time and 2022 did prove itself to be the manic top... and there is plenty of evidence it was, in terms of sentiment and broad retail involvement (dog coins , meme stocks, NVIDIA at PE way north of 100) WE shouldn't be too surprised!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by BallaJi
Neo 50-60% crash 🩸 incoming It's failed 📌 breaking and closing postive on recent top 🔝 Expecting pump towards $8.5-10 Possible wick towards $12-14 if wick turned as closing above $14 weekend postive sign ☢️ Then this article invalid 📌 my long term article get's invalid 📌 If this get valid my long term article get's invalid 📌 But present I am completely bearish 📍 Expecting qick pump towards $10 Drop 🩸 towards $3.2-4.3 Based on drop we can confirm bottom present target's are not bottom target 📌 I will update you Just follow article idea 🙂 💡 give boosting 🚀
CRYPTO:NEOUSDShort
by raj5_7_5
BTC: Double top formation could play out!Based on the double-top formation, it seems apparent that the price may decrease. If the price falls below the critical support zone, there could be a potential downward move to 18k. Additionally, due to the DXY's strengthening, it is expected that the price of btc will decrease shortly. Furthermore, Keeping an eye on the fair value gap and CME gap below current price levels is prudent. These gaps tend to get filled at some point, and the way BTC looks now, the gaps are expected to be filled soon! It is important to underscore that absolute certainty regarding market direction remains elusive. However, multiple indicators currently align to suggest a bearish market sentiment. Notably, the current inversion of the yield curve has reached magnitudes reminiscent of the conditions observed in 1928. This historical parallel is concerning, as it casts unfavorable implications for the overall economic landscape. With regards to the BMS band: In previous years, the bull market support band (b.m.s. band) has been an excellent indicator of a shift in the market. When the price gets below the band, the price tends to get into a bear phase. And when the price breaks above and holds above the band, the price tends to start a new bullish trend. As of now, the price has closed below the b.m.s. band for the first time this year. This potentially marks the start, or some would say continuation, of the downtrend that many people had been discussing. In my humble opinion, this confirms a more significant downtrend. The market has shown a lot of weakness for the past many months. I'm expecting 21k at first and 15k after that. For now, one should stay away from Altcoins as they can drop another 70-80% should BTC drop a lot further. With regards to DXY In the past few weeks, the DXY index has been showing some strength, and the current bullish momentum is amplified by the price breaking above the falling channel! It is reasonable to mention that the index is currently approaching a high resistance zone, and if that zone is broken, the index could be seen at the 108 level. The reason why the DXY is so interesting to watch is due to the fact that Stocks and cryptocurrencies have an inverted price action to DXY. DXY can, therefore, be used as an inverted indicator to tell the possible direction of Stocks and cryptocurrencies. Stocks and cryptocurrencies are expected to go lower if DXY keeps its bullish momentum and keeps rising.
Short
by MBM_Crypto
19
JPM - The banking crisis is not overBesides the obvious head & shoulders, as you increase the timeline from 1M to 2, 3 or 6M the more horrendous it gets. Massive bearish divergence in RSI. Price being rejected at the 25 MA, that will most likely lead to a death cross MACD being rejected at the signal line after the inflated march 2020 pump (looking even more rubbish at higher timeframes) PPO printing a bearish alert for the first time in its history at 6M (not shown) I think it will fall to the 0.786 retracement /400 monthly MA / previous top of 50$ minimum . It can go much lower as the MACD suggests, but a 70% is a common retracement for a JP Morgan bear trend and every time it enters a bearish market a retracement to its previous top and to the monthly 400 MA is a guaranteed target. I think this won't affect negatively the cryptomarket as some people suggest.
NYSE:JPMShort
by Zerkaalo
KAS vs Early BTC: The Ascending ChannelYou can see here that the ascending channel that $KAS finds itself in is very similar to the early channel that BTC traded in before breaking out to $30. If Kaspa repeats something similar, as it already is doing, it could lead to an epic move north of $1.00 USD. KAS also consistently bounces off the 20/21 week SMA/EMA as has always done during a bull rally (green and red lines). Any touches of those moving averages are strong buys, as far as I'm concerned. I'm not sure we will get a touch again in the near term, as the bottom side of the channel may hold as support. It seems like we are in a deep value zone right now. Previous monthly ATH close was around .0324, and that has held so far (not shown here). Also confluent with the bottom of the channel. Downside is limited IMO. Bullish.
CRYPTO:KASUSDLong
by Ski_Bum
Bitcoin, Russel2000, Trends & Patterns. 15k zone retest coming?--First of all, I want to state that I am not a financial advisor. My thoughts do not constitute investment advice.-- So I believe that the Russel 2000 and bitcoin mostly move together. We can agree on that. It is very rare when the two exchange rates show divergence. But in the vast majority of cases, when the Russel 2000 price falls, the bitcoin price tends to follow. As you can see, the Russel 2000 exchange rate is taking pattern, the continuation of which is mostly not favorable for the exchange rate. If this happens in the near future, we can be almost certain that bitcoin will continue its downward path. I'd be happy if I wasn't right, because I'm also tired of the bear market. It seems very long. But we have to prepare for the case that this trend continues... --Some thoughts that can be stated as fact-- - on the weekly chart of bitcoin, the RSI ~53 level is key in determining the direction of the trends. Bearish trend below level 53. Bullish trend above level 53. - the price of russel2000, when it falls, the price of bitcoin used to follow it in the long term - the pattern emerging on russel2000's chart is not bullish - russel2000 is an index that includes the riskiest stocks and companies (just like bitcoin is a risk instrument) - technically, the bear trend has already broken - no bull market yet - The world economic situation is still hopeless (experts advise to calm down, but there is already a technical recession in several countries and inflation has started to increase) - The Russian-Ukrainian war that has been going on for years does not want to end yet All in all, things aren't looking too good yet. Now the only thing the market is clinging to is the SEC's decision on bitcoin ETFs. But I think the SEC is stalling as long as it can. Therefore, I do not expect a final decision on this matter before 2024. Finally, don't forget to share your thoughts with me, whether you agree or disagree. I am open to all points of view. Fortunately, we don't see everything the same way. This is how we encourage each other to learn and think. <3 If you are interested in how I predicted the bull trend reversal and bitcoin fall in 2021, then check out my 2021 analysis, here. If you are wondering how I predicted in 2022 that we will go down to the ~$18,000 range and then up to the ~30,000 dollar range, then look here. If you like my idea and share it with others, I am very grateful. And thank you. As you can see, at the moment I can imagine 2 directions. So my 100% bearish mood is starting to turn bullish. But I'm still cautious. And just like the market, I can't decide the direction 100%.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by XOX_XOX
Lower High, and probably a Lower Low.The market is showing signs of weakening. After the previous high didn't take out the highest high it made on January 22, the momentum started to weaken. The volume is going through a bearish cycle and the VIX is starting to show signs of waking up. The interest rates haven't receded and there are signs of an economy slowdown with upticks in the unemployment and the reduction of the inflation. The oil market went high, but along with oil production cuts, which means the oil cartels are trying to keep the prices high not by increasing demand, but by reducing supply. This means the economy is reaching the point where more oil is not needed, it's peaking its recovery cycle. All these ingredients signal we're reaching a level where the overall economy has peaked. It must slow down to allow the inflation to go down, and the so called soft landing would mean the unemployment would not be harsh while the Fed reaches its economic goals. However that is not a guarantee, let's remember we went through a flood of cash after the pandemic, which was what triggered the worst inflation in decades. Previous bubbles have been because of different reasons, too much debt to enter the raising market, too much interest in tulips, too much promissory e-commerce, the real estate bubble, ... and the story repeats itself, just with different actors. I would call this one the cash bubble, and it is far from over. Let's remember the printed bills are endorsed by faith, by the believe that they are worth something and the fact that the only one who can legally print them is the government. But they're worthless by themselves. They are not Money, they are tokens that represent money, the money is produced after the productivity of the economy, how many people are in the workforce, how productive the companies are, how efficient the distribution networks are, and the fact that there are transactions going on in the economy, but if there are more tokens (printed bills) than economic activity their value is reduced, and prices are higher (inflation), until the economy catches up with the amount of currency in the market. My forecast here is that if the Federal Reserve senses a slowdown in inflation, then they will start pivoting the interest rates, at which point they will keep them like that for a while to see how the overall economy reacts, trying to curve the inflation, while keeping the economy moving, until it reaches levels that show signs of stalling, like higher unemployment and reduction of GDP. A reduction of interest rates will start to make the institutional capitals to exit the market to bet on a big bearish market, and while the media will be ignoring these signs, the institutions will be dumping assets until it's so evident that the market panics. Once the market has been slaughtered, while a lot of chickens run headless on the street, and there are signs of capitulation, it'll be when the big institution will start accumulating assets at a discount and with a lower interest rate, just like it has always happened before, and the cycle will repeat. This time, pretty much like the way it happened on 2009 and 2020, with a large amount of cash to be allocated in financial assets. "Patterns repeat because human nature hasn't changed for thousands of years." ~ Jesse Livermore. “The investor who says, 'This time is different,' when in fact it's virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.” ~ John Templeton. "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." ~Baron Rothschild.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Madrid
The End of a Bear Market : Structural Breaks 📉📈🐻 Bear Market Recap: A bear market is marked by a prolonged period of declining prices and pessimistic sentiment. It can be challenging for investors, but it also sets the stage for a potential turnaround. 📉 Structural Breaks: One of the key signs that a bear market might be ending is the emergence of structural breaks on the price chart. These breaks could include a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a shift in market sentiment. 🚀 The Bullish Catalyst: Structural breaks are often accompanied by increased buying interest, a resurgence of optimism, and a more positive outlook for the asset in question. 🔍 The Importance of Retesting: After witnessing structural breaks, it's common to see a retest of old highs or key resistance levels. This retest serves as a critical validation of the new bullish sentiment. If the asset successfully retests and holds above these levels, it could be a sign that a new bull market is underway. 🔮 The Future Unfolds: While recognizing the signs of a potential market shift is valuable, always approach it with caution. Markets are complex, and not all structural breaks lead to sustained bull markets. In conclusion, identifying the end of a bear market and the start of a new bullish phase involves recognizing structural breaks on the chart and understanding the significance of retesting old highs. It's a critical juncture in market dynamics and can present exciting opportunities for investors. Stay vigilant, stay analytical, and remember – the transition from bear to bull is a moment of transformation and potential growth! 📊🚀 ❗See related ideas below❗ Follow + Like this post and share your insights in the comments; your engagement fuels the creation of valuable content! 💚💚💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
4