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Bearmarket

The Bigger Picture on the US100 Hey guys, If you have seen my most recent posts you wont be surprise to see I'm bearish on the markets and have been for some time. With market valuations out of whack, Ungodly like debt in Government, cooperate, and leverage used by traders, 40% of all the US currency printed in 2020-2021 but production at an all time low causing inflation we haven't seen since the 80s and i feel will get even worse and lastly The Fed having to stop its purchases and tighten policy with interest rate hiking probably faster then the market was pricing in. This is a giant bubble with some gaint problems they will send it falling at least in my estimate 40% but trend is even further at 57%. Obviously I dont think it will sink like a rock there and we will have some rebounds but as the fed keeps tightening and i think its safe to assume funds and firms will go bust they will send it back down further and further. Although this is gloomy I don't think its financial collapse, once inflation is taking care of and the excesses of finance have been washed away they market will be set for another massive decade long bull market with growth prospects for the world coming from India, Australia, Mexico and all over Africa. My plan for this year and next is to watch the FED on interest rate hikes and statements and also inflation numbers, Watch Silver/gold this usually head south first and recover first and when the market starts the recover gold/silver will skyrocket to the moon. and Watch debt levels for both Governments and cooperate, Picking company that have low debt levels now that can take the opportunity that will come will massively improve your longer term portfolios. keep up to date with my trades by following and liking the post.
UShort
by jackwheeler
2
6% Decline could be on its way Hey guys, following up with my last few post I have exited the position I outlined last as I didn't want to hold it during the CPI announcement and it hit the .5 on the Fib and broke the uptrend line. New position entered after the market has reacted to the inflation news and we face the definite reality of the Fed tapering harder then first expected. My first target is a 6% fall to the yellow support line as on the daily it has many touches early in 2021 and most recently as seen in 2022 where it stopped the first fall. I'm using Citi Mini warrents so risk to reward make it. But I want to stress this is just one leg of a decline/bear market/ crash in motion and has been for the past 2 months. As soon as we broke the channel we had been in for two years we should know it wasn't going to go any higher then that and on my next post I outline the bigger move overall. But the main theme is to watch the VIX as it has held trend and Silver which is returning to my support line and if broken we are looking at a much bigger leg down then 6% on the US100, more likely to fall 17% to the next major support line. First trade up was 30% gain Target for second trade down is 60% gain
UShort
by jackwheeler
1
$TSLA — Gap Fill Role Reversal ResistanceTesla has been sitting under a very strong role reversal gap fill resistance area for quite some time now. We keep seeing this negative divergence between price action and volume as well. I think the likelihood of a breakout above the area is slim because of my views on the broader market. Options traders should give themselves time with this one and roll your stops down as the market slips. Nobody is talking about the 800,000 vehicles they have to recall... I don't want my idea to get flagged so just google "CNN 800,000 TESLA CARS RECALLED"
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by OptionsAddicts
4
BTC ON THE WEEKLY RISING WADGE VS RISING CHANNELBack in october i drew this rising wadge and i completely forgot about it.Since than we got our third touch point and big bounce from it on the fourth of december.This rising wadge goes back from 2017 Bull-run and has multiple touch points on the upside and 3 touch points on the downside. But we also have this rising channel and 3 perfect touch points on the downside and 2 on the upside becouse of that i got in long position at 33k. What to do if we get rejected from the rising wadge? The answer is simple,i am going out from my long position and wait for rsi on the weekly to go slightly below 30 whith has idicated bear market low back in 2015 and 2018.However if we break back in i think flying to the moon is very likely to happen. What do you think about my opinion? If you like my ideas please follow me and like the post, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading. BTC TO THE MOON!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mladen94
2
BTCUSD Market in Fibonacci (pullback to neckline accomplished)BTCUSD Price Action PULLBACK to Head & Shoulder's neckline accomplished. Real correction expected. Lower low expected. Fisher Transform oscillator's confluences/divergences in Fibonacci ratios time frames (daily candlesticks) Technical Analysis - ATH-2ndTop'swing = 100% Fibonacci; - 2ndTop-3thTop'swing = 88.6% Fibonacci; - strong divergence till 10 Nov ’21 ATH; - Fisher crossing near Ehler's Smoothed Stochastic's same overbought condition of All-Time-High with clear crossing near *Weekly bearish wave expected
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by firmestudio
1
Too close to bottom !! - ETH/USDTThe reversal we had seen it's not a strong reversal in my opinion, I have two reasons to prove : 1) The volume : It's not high enough to break that resistance 2) The reversal candlestick pattern formed at $2152 is not a strong indication for trend reversal .... cause the formation is not sufficient to say it as bullish piercing pattern nor morning star and more over you can call it as hammer but it's not formed at the lowest low to consider it as strong bullish reversal and I can validate it only iff high volume comes into play. As of now bulls unable to hold it slowly the momentum is changing towards bears, it's not perfect bottom to be called out...i once again need to validate this To validate this i consider two scenarios : 1) if high volume comes into play there is chance of flipping the resistance to support which will be a good indication that bulls are taking lead 2) Even if it comes down.....if it responds to it's previous low support and bounce with high volume As of now $1738 is likely to be the next support and also crucial one which also may be the bottom......All we want is high volume.
by Livermore_Jr
SIGNAL: We Closed Below 50 Week Moving AverageHi everyone, Thank you for considering reading my idea. In the past cycles, whenever we close below at 50 Week Moving Average (yellow line), we tend to dump down to the 200 Week Moving Average (green line). It seems like closing below 50 week MA indicates the start of the bear market except of course back in March 2020 which is the COVID black swan event. This pattern happened 3 times before and 100% of the time, it goes down to the 200 week MA. Just last week was the 4th time we closed below the 50 week MA. Last week, we closed the weekly candle below the 50 week MA at $41,875. In 10 hours as of this writing, we will close another weekly candle. Currently, the 50 week MA is at $48,570.13. It may be impossible to pump 5k+ in 10 hours. It seems like as long as we stay below the 50 week MA, we may go down to the 200 week MA (currently at $19,141.59). We may still go back up to the $48K levels but it may be hard for Bitcoin to go past that. I may be wrong where Bitcoin pumps hard past 48K and makes new ATH but let's see what would happen in the next few weeks. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR. Cheers, Juvs
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Juvssss
5
#Bitcoin Monthly MACD Flips BearHi everyone, Thank you for considering reading my idea. Before this, I had a lot of bullish analyses last year when we were at 69K but turns out to be a huge RSI bearish divergence. Please note that this is not a prediction that's going to happen in the next 6 months. Zooming out of the charts to monthly timeframe, we can see that the MACD has reversed after we closed the January 2022 candle and possible marks the start of the bear market. This is not 100% reliable as this is just a pattern that happened only 2 times but on a bigger timeframe. We can see the MACD Histogram that is in dark red from: 1. August 2014 - February 2015 (7 months) 2. July 2018 - January 2019 (7 months) We can also see that on January 2015, we touched the 200 week moving average (200W MA - green line). Same with December 2018 as we touched the 200W MA. Basically, it touched the 200W MA 1 month before the last dark red on the MACD Histogram. If we were to assume the pattern and apply it from today: 1. The MACD Histogram in dark red would also take 7 months (January 2022 - July 2022) 2. The price would bottom on the 200W MA estimated at around $19,000 - $21,000. Lastly, could we reverse on the MACD indicator? Yes, but it would take a lot of momentum for Bitcoin to do that. Currently, I am expecting Bitcoin to at least get a relief rally back to the 50W MA (yellow line) around $44k-48k before we dump down to the 200W MA. See related ideas below. Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR. Follow me on my Twitter as well linked below. Cheers, Juvs
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Juvssss
1
Why I have not yet recommended short trades.Traders, As you know, when you are bullish, you go long. And when you’re bearish, you short. Many of you have noticed that my bullish sentiment has quieted down a bit. It may even appear that I have become bearish in the crypto space. Short-term, maybe a bit bearish. Longer-term? Not yet. So, why have I not taken any short trades during this drawback? Well, the answer is actually threefold: 1) I don’t actually know how long this drawback will last. I have an idea. Yes. But, as with any analysis, these are just best guesses at this point. 2) You all know that for whatever reason, Coinbase has locked down my trading account. They won’t tell me why but I think I may have an idea - more on that another time. This means that I cannot transfer crypto out to an exchange that offers shorting opportunities even if I wanted to. But do I really want to? Not really. And this brings me to my last reason. 3) I just don’t have enough bearish conviction at this point to short the market. To go long, you must have conviction that your investment will pay dividends. To go short, you must have conviction that the bears are in complete control and you will be able to complete your trade at a lower price. I just don’t have that kind of conviction. …Yet (this could change). At this point, I am simply undecided with a slight bearish sentiment. This is not enough for me to short this market. Again, my sentiment would become more bearish especially if we drop below that black ascending trendline I continue to reference in my video updates. But even then, my current trading portfolio is restricted. Therefore, under my circumstances and with my lackluster bearish conviction, it does not make sense to short. At this point, I would rather simply offload into stable coins if I become more bearish and then look to re-enter at the lowest price possible. These are mainly the reasons my paid subs have not seen any short trading from me. Hope this helps you to understand my current perspective a bit. Take care traders, - Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
The Great Fall began in February 2021The market has entered in a correction phase from the mid of February ‘21. Although the indexes continued their rising course, many stocks began falling from then. In February ‘21 90% of the stocks were above their 200 days SMA and now this percentage has fallen to 30% (See the Percent of stocks above 200-days average chart – the decline began in Feb 11, '21). With this movement the market entrapped the vast majority of novice traders and led their portfolios to heavy losses. As I’ve written in my post of Apr 3, 2021: «1) The indexes may sometimes be lying. The indexes may rise but the majority of the stocks will fall. This happens with the rise of selected index-heavy stocks. 2) The Advance Decline Line may be lying because it measures how many stocks go up or down, not how much they go up or down. So, for 3 days the Advance-Decline difference may be positive and these stocks will rise 1% each day and one day the Advance-Decline difference could be negative and the same stocks could fall 6%. The Advance Decline Line will ignore the 3% fall and keep on rising. 3) Therefore the only criterion that we should trust completely is whether our own portfolio goes up or down and we have to make our investment decisions based on this criterion. For example, the HERCULES portfolio has so far not followed the rise of indexes, as shown below. 4) Concluding, we can place ourselves in stocks with as good fundamentals as possible by strictly following the rules I describe in my post "You can’t beat the market". However, from now on we must be on high alert and be prepared to hit the sell button anytime (or with nearby stop losses), because the situation can change abruptly and may lead us to big losses». As seen in the charts above, the market is, now, entering in that phase where the indexes start to fall amid the correction of the leader, index-heavy stocks like FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, MS etc. Whether the indexes technically react from these levels and even reaches their all-time highs or not, we are entering a catastrophic bear market which may last many months, even years. During that period I predict that most of the heavy portfolios will have big losses. Only the institutional investors that move the markets and the very experienced individual investors will survive and even raise their profits. Whoever tries to catch the ‘falling knife’ will be cut. The traders have become addicted to tactics of 'buy the dip'. This tactic was so far successful because the next dip of the indexes and the index-heavy stocks was higher, but from now on may the next dip be lower, leading to bigger losses each time. In the above charts notice that, 1) In the monthly IXIC chart the MACD indicator has given a selling sign and possibly the prices will reach the 200 months SMA – bold black line - in the next time period (months or years). See also the GOLD/IXIC chart which may be rising in the next time period. 2) In the weekly Crypto Total Market index chart the MACD indicator has given a selling sign a long time ago and possibly the prices will reach the 200 weeks SMA – bold black line - in the next time period (months or years). 3) The whole market index DSIR has given a MACD sell signal since Feb 16, 2021. 4) Both the VIX index 30 and 200 months SMAs are rising. In the following snapshot you can see the course of the stocks of a typical micro investor’s portfolio, the HERCULES portfolio. In the next snapshot you can see the course of the FAANGT stocks. Notice the impressive entrapping ‘sudden fall’ movements of AMZN and NFLX stocks. In the next snapshot you can see the course of various selected stocks. Notice that stocks with bad fundamentals like JUMIA have already huge losses (-90%). Whoever wants to protect his capital may read my posts "How we deal with fall" and "You can’t beat the market" and strictly follow the rules I describe there in. I wish everyone good luck and over all good health. Disclaimer The author of this idea is not an investment advisor. The preceding content is intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. It is not an advice or inducement for the purchase or sale of the products mentioned. Before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances, it is very important to do your own research and analysis and also take independent financial advice from a professional to verify any information provided here.
DJ:DJIShort
by Gnothisafton
6
Market update - Usdt dominance chartReady for massive market drop? We have 4 main indicators that we will soon break up and this time with even more momentum then previous drop We have not one but two cup and handles (one inside a triangle and a larger cup&handle overlapping the triangle up to the key resistance level (red line)And then as well we have these formations close to main resistance yellow trendline very dangerous setup because we breakout of trinagle we break main resistance and then we break key resistance most certainloy as well and we have to powerful catalysts for powerful momentum one cup&handle after the other - this current formation structure could be strong enough to led us to the bottom which could be 28 - 32k Stay safe do proper risk analysis - prepare to have usd to buy lower - and if you want to short only do with low leverage and stop losses and do it from resistance and now from support and put stop loss above support
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Mr_TAFA
The rocket is almost refueled! I'm in and you ? 🚀🚀🤠Hello everyone, Cardano entered the NFT world. This shows that the developers are doing something with this project. It is no longer a HYPE project that adds nothing. I loaded my wallet in the first shopping zone and will be adding it in the next buyzone. If we get there and all the signs in the sky tell me YES. We have a very strong downtrend. If bearmarket is waiting for us. I will buy cryptocurrencies, which will wait calmly until 2k24. However, I'm counting on a quick rebound from the second line (1W CANDLEWICK) and start to $10 per coin. Comment and like, Greetings
BITFINEX:ADAUSDLong
by SayMoney
7
Bitcoin "Normal" Bear Market TargetingTLDR: We have at least another 40-50% downside if the pattern holds Introduction Bitcoin and crypto has some fierce bear markets that can really affect people's psychology. To that end I think it would be helpful to show people a general pattern I have noticed and have been using to help me do my personal battle planning. Two Simple Indicators The NVT by aamonkey This version of the NVT dynamically paints zones on the NVT so you can recognize when the price of bitcoin is high or low compared to the number of transactions it is pushing through. Despite all the noise about what bitcoin is, the blockchain is a decentralized payment network and the currency of that network can either be expensive or cheap compared to the number of transactions being run on the network. When the NVT enters the red area it is a sign that a bubble is going to form and there are going to be a lot of of higher highs inbound. Once price has gotten above the upper red limit the party is about over. When it reenters the yellow band the bear market begins in earnest. Lots of trades can happen but ultimately the direction is down. Historically accumulation begins when the NVT is in the green. When the NTV starts to make its way out of the green area accumulation is broadly done and the cycle begins again. The Gaussian Channel The Gaussian channel default has a look back period of over 144, which means it is a very slow and very lagging indicator for what the average price was. So if price is at the center line of the the channel then the average price of bitcoin was roughly the same over 144 periods. Price is now below the centerline, which means that it is roughly down over the last 144 periods. When price falls out the bottom of the channel the channel turns red and we can expect a 40-50% drop. Limited Conclusions First, my conclusions are limited by the short life span of Bitcoin and the lookback periods of the indicators being used. The NVT can be used on lower time frames to find moments where the network is undervalued and therefor a buy to value investors but it still doesn't look proper on the first two years of available data. Second, there is this disturbing rising wedge formation on bitcoin as shown in purple. Since these wedges break down the majority of the time my assumption is that this one will likewise break down. That means that investors looking to use what has worked the last two cycles could be in for a nasty surprise. more indecision comes because bitcoin could have a melt up once it What I am doing and why I believe in charts and patterns. As such I am only taking shorts on crypto and have only had 3-4 long margin trades over the last year and some of them were absolute busts. One reason I became bearish is consolidation patterns did not resolve themselves bullishly or they turned out to be reversal patterns and when that happens it takes a while for the bearish energy to work its way out of the system. I am taking the portion of my paycheck that I use for crypto trading and using it to fund shorts and I don't have any crypto other than stable coins. I am going to be using my targeting on the double top pattern to stop me from being too greedy on my shorts. Once the price gets close to the 1.618 to 2 level on the fib retracement, which is near wedge support it would be reckless to short open new shorts considering a bounce would be very likely. A move from 15,000 to 35,000 is very doable with a short squeeze. Until I see a bullish pattern that is bigger than the purple rising wedge I am going to watch for the weekly NVT to go through the cycle and I don't feel like accumulating, I will wait for price to fight its way into the Gaussian channel and for the NVT to get out of the green. Here is a key point: rising wegdes that don't break down fully often were part of a channel. If I see price action finding support on the channel then that would be a larger chart pattern than the rising wedge and I can play that. Likewise the Keltner Channel and 200 week SMA have been great support before. If they appear to be working then I will look at putting on some long margin trades, but I don't see myself investing and holding crypto for a while. [b/Abnormal Bear Market The bottom of the wedge is the target for a mega bear market. This would probably mean that the Nasdaq bubble pops again and loses over 90% of its value. Commodities soar and people spend a fortune on making sure they can afford the bottom layer of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If you don't need it for food or shelter, and it isn't addictive it will be sold off. Linked Ideas A broader view on why I am so bearish.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
9
DON'T IGNORE THIS ETHEREUM CHART!Hi everyone, I figured it would be a good idea to share this find with the community. I'll explain below what I'm seeing: RSI - Matches the same pattern as Ethereum during "consolidation" in 2016 before the euphoric 2017 bull cycle MACD - Oversold levels not seen in years Duration of Consolidation - As you can see, the duration of the phases circled in white both span about 90 (270 days) Retracement - Both ranges circled in white had similar pullbacks of about +50% Bull Market Support Band - Right before the start of a new bull phase in 2016, the PA trended below the BMSB before breaking out (we are currently at this point when comparing the two) Obviously this isn't to be taken as FA, but it could be a very unique and rare opportunity to enter the market/add to your position as a bull/long term holder. Let me know your thoughts! Twitter @illusivetrades
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by acocellaphotography