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Bearmarket

"Get in on time and get out on time"This post marks about my 1 year anniversary on Tradingview and my first year of crypto trading. I have spent over 80% of the last year analysing charts, researching projects and learning the ins and outs of trading... It's been a wild ride! From catching the Ethereum and Bitcoin tops back in April and May and shorting till the depths of fear and capitulation to the resurgence of crypto towards the upthrust after distribution back in November 2021. It was a steep learning curve but I've made to become a profitable trader and paying my bills from these magic internet currencies - and above all; I think it's a lot of fun! Reflecting on everything I've learned, I think I can summarize it to one rule and one rule only: "Get in on time and get out on time." The time to get out came for me back in early December, when I launched my first warning for a potential bear market. A scenario that seems to unfold right in front of our eyes at this very moment. If you cut through the noise and the hype, you see a clear picture: We have been in a mega bull market since December 2018 and we were catapulted off the March 2020 spring. Monetary expansion and the shift towards the fourth industrial revolution - where data will be the new oil - have created the reappearance of crypto on the mainstage. The future for the crypto industry is bright and we are onto the next stage of mass adoption for the next decade to come. However technology changes fast. What is obvious today, might be irrelevant tomorrow. The transition towards day to day use cases and adoption of the "no-coiners" has yet to come to fruition. A narrative for the future. The narrative of today is exhaustion. The central banks have exhausted their ability for monetary expansion and have been hit with record inflation, the corporations have exhausted any more reason for higher valuations - many CEO's have jumped ship at all time highs - retail exhausted their bank accounts, the dips have been bought and thus institutions have exhausted their exit liquidity. Market makers were not shy in their mark up phase and they won't be shy in their mark down phase. They have come prepared, striking everyone at surprise - again. Currently, there is nothing left for them than the play the dirty game and chop around to hunt for liquidity before they continue the trend. With the surprise pump of over 100% on European yields, the quarterly interest hikes and the tapering of the federal reserve as well as the peak formations on most stocks, indexes and cryptocurrencies, uncertainty and disbelief are here. Where the world's richest CEO has already jumped ship together with many of his fellow competitors, we are waiting for who is next - the market is not waiting for; if the trigger gets pulled, but when - who will pull the trigger? Who is the first to get a margin call? What will Michael Saylor do when Bitcoin creeps towards his average buy in price? How will investors react when yearly reports fall behind expectations? And how do governments and central banks manage their balances in a economy floating on depth and inflation? As always in trading, we don't know anything for sure but what we do know is that the market is hot - and historically speaking - it is not a bad time for a cool off period. So, ask yourself: "is it a good time to get in or to get out?" You will know the answer... IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
Bitcoin, Ethereum and the next bear marketAs we all know, the market doesn’t like when Bitcoin and other Proof of Work crypto’s environmental impact come to mainstream attention. When Elon tweeted about BTC environmental impact in May, we witnessed a -48% legdown in 5 days. (snip) According to this chart from my colleague Zen, we are at the end of the 4-year bear-bull cycle. This chart was drawn by WiseAnalyze on Trading View in Dec ’19. (snip) I think that the best projects, Ethereum in front of all, will start outperforming BTC during the following years, probably creating new lows into the BTC dominance chart despite the bear market. One little thing supports my view. It’s already almost one year since coinmarketcap added Ethereum dominance to their homepage. If you like this content you might want to read the full story with no snips on Medium is here
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by mlnzigzag
5
🌊 🏄🏿 Bitcoin's Revised Route To $35,000Based on timing decay and various micro level invalidations, I have reassessed my Bitcoin wavemap and have found an alternative count/position. Note, my original target of $35,000 has not changed since Summer of 2021. I am only adjusting the proposed route based on a closer inspection of my previous markup. See chart for additional Elliott Wave notes. Like and follow if you find value in this posting. I'd tell my friends and my community to look for short opportunities (or wait for the proper long ball). My community and I are currently awaiting rejection at $43K for indication of alignment.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
Watching For a 10% CorrectionOver the last 20 years, a 10% correction has occurred in about 12 out of those 20 years. The point is: 10% corrections are pretty common. Also, of all of those drawdowns, the average pullback was actually 15%. So not only are 10% corrections common, but they can go to 15% without being out of the ordinary. -20% drawdowns are less common. If you use the last 50 years of data, you can observe that they usually occur every 10 years or so. -30% drawdowns far more rare, but still occur as seen in years like 1999/2000 or 2008/09. You want to be prepared for anything. Keep in mind a lot of this data changes depending on how you study markets, specifically when you begin backtesting the data and what index. For example the S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq. In addition, the data changes fast depending on your starting point from 1920, 1950, or more recently like 2000. With all that being said, for swing traders, there is one interesting anecdote to consider: On average, the biggest up days occur within two weeks of the biggest down days. Picking bottoms and buying dips is extremely challenging. But, over time, the worst down days and worst corrections have lead to the biggest bounces and up days. As a swing trader, this kind of volatility is what can make or break a year of trading. Here are some final notes: 1. Swing traders can make some excellent trades shortly after the biggest drawdowns 2. Corrections have happened all throughout history with a 10% correction being fairly common and a 20% not being out of the ordinary. 3. Support, resistance, and other indicators are important, but so to is measuring the extent of a drawdown. With all of that being said, I have no idea where markets are going next. I am simply watching, setting an alert, and fascinated by the price action we could see at -10% for the major indices (if they get there). I suppose that means a little more patience. Good luck and thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPY
by scheplick
22
Massive Move Incoming for Altcoins!Hello traders, The Bitcoin Dominance has been on a large downtrend for years and is looking like it will continue. It is currently in a descending pattern (Lower highs and equal lows.) The current dominance comfortably sits at 39.83%, while the target out of this downtrend is 29-30%. This may look bearish for Bitcoin but this may be a sign that Altcoins may surge! 9% loss in Bitcoin Dominance is $180B USD. More currently we have received a weekly close below the important support level, unfortunately, this reveals BTC may go lower possibly dragging down other coins. One last thing, the MACD of the Weekly BTC.D is foreshadowing a divergence to the bearish side. Safe trading, -Pulkanator
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Pulkanatir
S&P500 and its market sentiment.This is probably one of the most popular charts these days. The S&P 500. It fascinates me how market sentiment turns bearish with a small pull back. "The worse crash we have ever seen" "The bubble has burst" "The new variant injects fear in the markets" "The bear market is here to stay" What? Why? Why do we collectively catch the sentiment wave? Every time the S&P has pulled back to the 55EMA it has been the best chance to open long positions. That is not going to change until it actually changes. If you find yourself with the herd following market sentiment, maybe it's time to block those news out and ONLY observe the chart. This chart is telling a totally different story. Rio.
SP:SPX
by SatoshiSacamoco
Quick look at BTC - the downtrend continues Here's a quick look at the BTC Daily chart. As we can see, the price has been continuing its downtrend within the bigger falling wedge for some time now. The price is currently at the bottom of the falling wedge, and a break below the falling wedge will lead to a bigger drop in price. The price needs to stay within the falling wedge to avoid a much bigger downside. If the 40k support zone can't be held, then the price may very likely revisit the 33k-37k zone. ------------------------------------------- What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?: "A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts. Key Takeaways for Falling wedges: 1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods. 2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction. 3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals." ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
5
BTC: The Big Short 2022 📉🐻When people live on hopium they detach from reality and refuse to look at the bigger picture Analysis paralysis is an inability to make a decision due to over-thinking It’s usually accompanied with an overall sentiment of wishful thinking in the financial markets This translates to extreme fear and greed, the more fearful or greedy investors are, the harder it gets to predict the next market move. This is especially true when markets are at new all time highs or lows. You guessed it, current market readings are overbought, everyone is greedy and wants in, and prices are at new ATH Sooner or later this leads to one end… and it’s much simpler and uglier than you think Crypto first, others follow Crypto markets has relatively proven to be test grounds for conventional stock markets , as almost every major crypto crash is followed shortly by a stock market crash I strongly believe we’re on the verge of a recession at the very least, others might even call it a depression My view depicts an imminent bitcoin & crypto market crash, followed by a stock market crash initiating a long-term bear market and a chain reaction of global recession Without further ado, let’s dive in! The Technicals Yield Curve The yield curve shows the relationship between short-term & long-term interest rates of U.S. Treasury notes Usually, the longer the duration, the higher the interest rate, but when the rates draw closer to one another, the yield curve flattens. An inversion of the curve is typically seen as a warning signal for the market Long story short, The yield curve has flattened recently, with long-dated bonds nearing their lowest point for a year Last time this happened in 2018 bitcoin crashed hard! Consumer Price Index (U.S.) CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services in the U.S. Pre 2008 recession, the CPI was at an all time high of 5.6%, currently it’s at an ATH of 6.8% Money Stock You can’t print money forever! Scarcity is the definition of value. If everyone have it, why would they want it? In fact, this is why economies plunge and currencies become worthless just like in Venezuela and Lebanon Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity This fancy term simply translates to creating more money whether physically or digitally out of thin air! The Federal Reserve has printed unprecedented amounts of money to support the coronavirus-stricken economy Data from the Fed shows that a broad measure of the stock of dollars, known as M2, rose from $15.4 trillion at the start of 2020 to $21.18 trillion in December 2021. The increase of $5.78 trillion equates to 27.28% per cent of the total supply of dollars. It means more than one in four dollars was created in 2020 and 2021 ! U.S. Dollar Strength U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) represents the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, most significant of which is the Euro, accounting for 57.6% of the basket As of this writing, the DXY has failed twice to break historic resistance level of Fib 0.618 around 100 and unless it’s able to break it this time (which i doubt considering the over-bought RSI) it’s expected to pull back to previous support of 80 at least, if not retest ATL of 70 The EUR on the other hand is expected to rise as a hedge against the USD Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Overview Looking at the weekly and monthly time frames, you can clearly see ~$70k price rejected twice with a double top, zoom out a little and a head & shoulders pattern is half complete with a declining volume, an over-bought RSI, a bearish MACD, and a widening BB. Price action Scenarios Best case scenario is we climb up one more leg to hit the last Fib 4.236 retracement from 2017’s ATH to 2018’s ATL at around $73.5k-$74k (depending on the exchange) The only way we can have another bull-run continuation is if we manage to break-out and close weekly above $74k Average case scenario is an H&S right shoulder at $53k, if we manage to break-up, it could be a bull trap retest to $58k-$60k Worst case is we just keep dumping to retest previous key support levels at $42k, $36k, and $30k which is the neckline of the double top If we can’t hold $30k then it’s downhill from there to $20k, $16k, $13.5k, $11.5k, and lastly $9.5k which could be the last time ever for BTC hitting 4 digits again, as $20k will be the new support This has confluence with the intersection of 0.5 pitchfork (19850-3217-64802) and 0.5 pitchfork (64802-28149-68974) and Fib 0.382 (19850-3159) at $9534 which makes sense when viewed on a log-scale chart on the 1W frame, you can clearly see a strong support zone there. BTC Dominance The inverse correlation between BTC price and its market dominance means that when BTC is at ATH, BTC.D is at ATL This is exactly the case right now where BTC.D is currently at 40.5% and seems en route to retest previous support at 37.5% thus forming a huge double bottom ready to bounce back up strongly ----------- Stay Safe, Don’t lose your money, It’ll be painful for the unprepared See you on the other side, inch-Allah Godspeed ----------- You can read more here: I predicted the 2018 bitcoin crash... It's time to sell 📉 DISCLAIMER: Not Financial Advice! Please trade at your own risk.
Short
by TannerJ
5
Is Bitcoin in bear market?Hello, everyone! I want to say that I am ready for hate, because my opinion is not popular now. I gave you signal here(link into related ideas) that the huge dump is coming when the price was $65000, you can check it! To be honest, I fell guilty that did not checked the higher timeframes for the strongest bearish signals. It was possible to forecast the bear market at 15th November 2021 and confirm it at 1st December 2021. But it is not too late to told you that the bull market is over. If you followed my those signal, you caught the current huge correction. As you can see on the chart above the Elder’s Force Index flashed the very strong true bearish divergence at the 1M timeframe! This is huge signal! At the chart below you can see the enhanced bearish true divergence with MACD on the 1W timeframe. The incredible combination! So, is Bitcoin in bear market? – Definitely, YES! Is it possible to execute long trades? – Of course, YES! As you can observe my last analysis series, I am preparing for the long trade on the daily timeframe. We have a lot of long signals now and I am waiting for the main long signal. It can be flashed today. If it is the case, I will tell you tomorrow. I am waiting for the correction to the upside, I think we can see Bitcoin above $50000 soon if this signal plays out. I just want to tell you that you should not wait for the new ATH and tothemoons for at least next one year! DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
by Skyrexio
25
🔥 NEO Long-Term Bear Market ScenarioWith the latest fall of BTC, I think that NEO has entered its bear market. We're currently trading below the summer-21 lows, without an end in sight. For reference, I've copied the 2019-2021 bar pattern and pasted it on the chart to give an idea about the price movements to come. Assuming NEO is in a bear market, we can see a prolonged period of accumulation ahead of us. Top of the next climax phase is placed at the descending trendline which connects the previous two climax phases. Happy trading!
Short
by FieryTrading
12
What Goes Down Must Come Up - Navigating Bitcoin's CorrectionDuring an uptrend, we have this saying - what comes up, must come down. The similar notion can be said during a downtrend, but in an opposite direction - what comes down, must come up. Following this series of downtrend within the Cryptomarket, we can actually maximize the intra-cycle volatility which we see within the smaller timeframes. In this chart, we used a common indicator and strategy which everyone uses and applies with their own trading strategy. But in this chart, we combined the following strategies to come up with a way of navigating the downtrend: Relative Strength Index (RSI) Bullish Divergences Support and Resistances - During a downtrend, there will be a point in time wherein the price gets oversold in the RSI. - The moment wherein the price starts declining but the RSI has started increasing, that poses a signal wherein a bullish retracement is bound to happen. - Entry points will vary depending on different support levels, as much as possible, set a stop loss for 5-10% in order to secure your capital. - As for Exit strategy, the suggested take profit areas are determined by the resistance areas forming. - Previous support will now act as a resistance, hence the resistance areas are a good levels for exiting a trade (either fully or partially). - Once you've exited a trade, you now wait for the next indicators to form, especially if you see a downtrend continuation. In that case, you now wait for the next bullish indicators to form. In this example, the Bitcoin downtrend which started late November 2021 has been forming multiple instances of a bullish retracements using bullish divergences and resistance areas. While you are shorting within the bigger timeframe, it is still possible to long every bullish retracement opportunities that you can find in the smaller timeframes. To summarize: - During a downtrend: being bearish in the bigger timeframe doesn't mean you have to be always bearish in the smaller timeframe; - And during an uptrend: being bullish in the bigger timeframe doesn't mean you have be always bullish in the smaller timeframe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by baltristangabriel
1
Watching for clear direction but I feel its bear season til 2024We did stop at the LONG term trend line. If it goes up from here would be EPIC. Possibly heading to 110K for the blow off top. However I think we will drop to 28k for long term bear accumulation until next halving march 2024. Another possibility is that the crypto market is taking on a stocks like growth thus not allowing much of a further drop unless big investors sell. Time will tell but I feel much larger adoption into crypto investing is happening & more are hodling so it means deep drops will be less deep. I have staked most of my ALTS so I will gain a percentage of growth over a possible bear season ready for the next exciting bull run. GOOD LUCK ALL
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheAussieBogan
4