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Bearmarkets

Comparison of BTC bear markets (2011,2015,2018,2022) Part 3On the chart are four bear markets. I decided to add the 2011 bear market too. All three green lines are the tops of bull cycles, and the red lines are the bottoms of the bear markets. As you can see, previous bottoms never touched the tops. Here are some metrics: 1) from a lower low in 2015 to a higher high in 2011 is around an 80% difference. 2) from a bottom in 2018 to a top in 2015 is a difference of around 60%. 3) in the present time, we have a distance of 22%. Of course, it has an explanation because BTC price has roses thousands of times. 80% - 60% - 22% this distance shrinks 1.5 and 3 times. Also, a significant indicator is a volume during bear markets. 2011 - 7.9 2015 - 14.2 2018 - 13.5 2022 - only 4.4 compared to previous declines, it is too low numbers, but let's look into an alternative idea that the fourth bear market began in APR 2011, and it makes some sense because the volume is 10.2 As I mentioned in part 2 of my analysis, I am waiting for the last movement down into the area between 200 days EMA and MA after the bounce (correction) to the 33000-34000 zone. Nevertheless, if the Federal Reserve System will fight inflation and not raise interest rates anymore, plus if the global situation of geopolitics will change to positive and stable, I will shift my plans and consider that the 25300 level was the bottom and we will have the third pick. May the profit be with you!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by PaulSnow
Comparison of BTC bear markets (2015,2018,2022) Part 2You can see the second, third and present fourth bear markets on the chart. The second and third had the same pattern of three movements (waves) down: 1. 0 - A 2. B - C 3. D - E I depicted the same movement in the present situation based on 200 days of EMA and MA. And here are such exciting historical circumstances. Look closely at the previous bottoms of 2015 and 2018. They were formed between 200 EMA and MA. We can make our biases based on history and predict that price will build something similar this time. I also drew arrows showing where strong wicks were in the past and the range of these movements and compared them with potential wicks that we can expect shortly. May the profit be with you! P.S. I will write the third part with my conclusions.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by PaulSnow
2
S&P 500 ---→ IN FOR A DEEP CORRECTION. MEAN REVERSION PENDING.S&P 500 IS IN FOR A DEEP CORRECTION. Monthly SPX Regression Channel, spanning 40 years, with bands of +4/-4 standard deviations. This is a long-term channel showing a Normal Distribution of SPX price occurrences. At least 95% of the price occurrences occurred within the Comfort Zone, the blue area between +2/-2 stdev as it should be. For 14 months (3.54% of the total bars) price has come out above the Comfort Zone, and even beyond +4 stdev. In an uptrend channel this type of action commands a Mean Reversion most of the time. Because this channel and its bands are dynamically calculated, the only alternative is for the price to stay out of the Comfort Zone until the channel adapts or accommodates (widens) to engulf the new prices, but in this case everything points to a MEAN REVERSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 to 24 months. THEREFORE SPX IS GOING LOWER. Currently the Comfort Zone is between 3632 / 1818 Bear markets are not cleared up in a few days or weeks. They take time to unwind. Bear market rallies: Trade'm, but don't Trust'm We wrote an article about this channel on Feb-21-22
SP:SPXShort
by Point-Blank-Trading
BTCUSDT - UpdateHi All, As we have discussed in our previous analysis (see the link below), BTCUSDT broke below the mini-bull uptrend line from January and bounced off the 1st support level at 38K. Now, if BTC can break above the local downtrend line, would expect a move up possibly to 41,800 resistance line. Otherwise, it would break the 38K support line and sell to the 2nd support line at 35K. Our overall market outlook is bearish due to macro economics and the world events. Thank you for your support! * Not a financial advice and please do your own DD.
Short
by BlokBox
BITCOIN PRICE VS MACD Fractals Comparison (Past 2 Bullruns)This weekly-chart of BTC represents how previous rallies were followed by deeper corrections all the while comparing them with MACD. We'll notice some similar price movements, fake-outs and then breakouts. (i) The cycle starts after making an ATH by a big and strong impulse during the bull market, subsequently there's always a major pullback, hence a Bear Market. After this pullback there comes a significant upside move which causes some undeveloped signals leading to FAKEOUTS (in white ellipse) which makes it look like the end of the bear market but only cause potential losses. (ii) At the same time the MACD signals the "almost" crossovers which aligns with the bullish price action after a pullback leading us to believe a genuine breakout which later turns out as a FAKEOUT but if we look below the baseline (0 value in MACD) at -0.21 whenever there's a bullish crossover it acts as the beginning of next BIG MOVE and an actual BREAKOUT. (iii) After the BREAKOUT (white diagonal rectangle) there comes the next phase, another big rally with more new market participants, much higher volumes which historically elevates the price in a PARABOLIC way taking prices beyond the previous ATH towards a new ATH (CRAZY MARKETS = CRAZY RETURNS) and eventually to an end of the rampant speculation. (iv) And so the cycle repeats. which brings us back to the current scenario that is half-way across the cycle meaning we are nearing the fake-out zone and we must stay awared and avoid getting trapped in the short squeeze or bull trap. Factually, the price should act accordingly; nevertheless, we know how BTC has never ceased to surprise us in the past. Let's just observe for now and not rush getting trades. P.S - Too much info on the chart, for simple understanding just focus on the MACD crossovers and Price breakouts. CryptoCuriousOfficial 📥
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wolf_Of_Alt_Street
2
Master Buy & Sell "Bitcoin (BTC) Cheat SheetBULL MARKET TOPS = A TAD BEFORE 2nd BLUE LINE FROM PREVIOUS PURPLE LINE BEAR MART BOTTOMS = 3rd BLUE LINE FROM PREVIOUS PURPLE LINE GREEN ARROWS = BUY RED ARROWS = SELL *Blue & Purple lines are 1 year apart from March each year & clearly call the bottoms and tops of the Bitcoin cycles. Nothing special, but this gives a rough idea of when to buy and sell. I was originally trying to find confluence with the halving dates, but this seemed to work out perfectly, so I couldn't ignore it. Of course, Bitcoin can diverge, but the halving cyclical nature of every 4 years really keeps Bitcoin cycles fairly predictable. The good news is that we still have quite some time to go until the top of this cycle and of course there will be corrections along the way. Happy Trading!!!!
BNC:BLXLong
by CaptainCanuck
3