BTC in Bear MarketAs you see after massive news , fomo and Valuability for investments on lower price, Btc started to drop techinacally straight to the bear market, as you see at 1st resistance dropped , then failed to return (1), dropped further at next support failed to overpass previous support as new resistance (2) , same now dropped and atm failing to bullish up to 50k , that is the result of 200MA turning day by day to red, this week is crusial moment for coin to prove us if can returns at higher prices
if for 3rd time fail, so under the last red lines price will go to bear market (puprple polygone) i can predict that a valueable price of 10400$ or 11850$ with a tick down to 9k will be the start for massuve bullish back , turning to Green on 200MA overpass the White dot line with a projection at the end/or start of the year 105k$ , all the above are Valid IF and only this week BTC fail to overpass the 50k line
Bearmarketsignal
[Bitcoin] BTC will relapseBTC will strongly relapse this week.
Current bearish factors :
- a large bearish flag
- a strong MACD divergence
- a huge RSI divergence
- a steady increase in institutional short positions (COT report)
- a significant drop in volumes in recent months
- a weekly bearish MACD cross
- a death cross in progress
- the great powers want to regulate the market
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
[Bitcoin] Warning !In TF4H BTC has not succeeded in extricating itself from the compression triangle in which it has been evolving for several days, which validates the hypothesis of a bearish pennant.
The accumulation of bearish signals and fractal analysis reinforce my idea of a weak retracement before another large decline.
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
[Bitcoin] Last rebound before the bear market ?In daily and weekly, several signals show that a market reversal is underway (bear market), in particular the crossing of the moving averages and of course the huge drop on May 19.
In small timeframes, technical indicators show that a rebound will surely occur before the decline continues.
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
[Bitcoin] bear market signals (update2)Currently we still have long term bearish signals :
- a great wave of Wolfe
- a bearish MACD divergence
- a huge bearish RSI divergence
- a strong resistance area around $60K
- a regular increase in institutional short positions (COT report)
- a significant drop in volumes
- a MACD bearish cross in weekly
- a death cross coming
- regulations and taxes in preparation
From my point of view there is a real likelihood of a market reversal.
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
[Bitcoin] bear market signals (update)Currently we have several bearish signals :
- a great wave of Wolfe , bearish
- a very clear bearish MACD divergence
- a strong resistance area around $60K
- a regular increase in institutional short positions (COT report)
- a significant drop in volumes
- a huge bearish RSI divergence in weekly
- a MACD bearish cross in weekly
- regulations and taxes are in preparation
If a strong decline starts in the next few days, from my point of view there will be a real likelihood of a market reversal.
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
[Bitcoin] bear market signals ?Currently we can observe several bearish signals on Bitcoin:
- a great wave of Wolfe, bearish
- a very clear bearish MACD divergence
- a strong resistance zone around $60K
- a regular increase in institutional short positions (COT report)
- a significant drop in volumes
- a huge bearish RSI divergence in weekly
- a weekly MACD bearish cross
If a sharp decline begins in the next few days, from my point of view there will be a likelihood of a market reversal.
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
Bullish Scenario for Blow-off Parabolic: Three Drives to TopPrevious tops characterized by parabolic surge with extreme overbought RSI (arrows). This is the Third Drive; expect another parabolic blowout, followed by an extreme Bearish reaction. This final move will complete a Nenstar pattern and likely usher in a Bear Market for 2021.
A measured move from 3230 -> 3630 of 400 pips, extended to upper TL formed by previous tops, yields price 4K.
This move could occur rapidly, over 7-10 trading sessions in December, as we saw in the two prior moves, look when RSI moved from high to extreme overbought, takes about a week.
NB: Time from 30 June ending ABC correction to next top: 64 days; from 30 October projects rally ending ~> 3 Jan
This is a rosy scenario priced for perfection. Printing free money will be the catalyst. Failure in Congress will result in rollover.
I do not advise going long here; risk is extreme! Rather, this idea suggests when shorts might come into play.
Shorting this trend is also extremely risky. Calling tops is worse than fishing for bottoms IMO!
ANYTHING can happen now; trade safe FGS!!!
As always, this is not advice, just another crackpot idea. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Top Is In? Ugly GDP Print and 10 Year Treasury Yields Break DownI've been waiting for today to arrive as the Q2 GDP print is in and was ugly as expected. The awful number reported (a -32.9% collapse) was expected but I'm looking for some "trigger" that might change the market mood and I've suspected the GDP number could be it. Seeing the worst GDP decline on record, even worse than during The Great Depression, might be a wake up call for the majority of people that never look at economic data, despite the fact it was "expected."
In support of that suspicion is the 2nd major event I was waiting for: a breakdown in treasury yields. The last few months 10 year treasury yields have NOT rallied with stocks creating this huge disconnect between a euphoric equity market and a glum bond market--and again this is something the average Joe doesn't watch. Today the yields on the 10 year treasury broke down from the support we've seen holding for months (shown on the chart in blue). It even broke below the spike down that happened on April 21. Yields are breaking lows, bond values are rallying, and this is exactly the opposite of what should happen if the stock market rally were on solid footing. Unless yields reverse and go back up, I'm calling this an early indicator that the stock euphoria has been wrong and the top could be in.
Netflix has come to a fork on the road.Netflix has come to what I like to call a fork on the road. If Netflix does not break over $363 and breaks over the top trend line on this chart we might see a reversal in price that can take it all the way down to $77 on a large (WXY) correction as shown on the chart above. It has finished the (X) wave up and it is currently one the (b) wave of the (abc) wave of the (Y) wave down. Let's see how this plays out.
WTIWTI Crude oil looks weak AF here not even making any sort of bounce to try and keep up with the dead cat happening in the rest of the markets. I have Bids on HAL placed at $1.22 I think
my bids get filled as not much keeping oil up around the $20 level. Another leg down in oil to the $10 level give or take will absolutely wreck the stock market. Trade safe fam.
BTC/USD What Now?Hello Friends , just like previous posts I published. BTC is in a bearish mode and will remain so unless we are able to retest the upper resistance (marked on chart) and have a break through, otherwise BTC is heading south towards LL and LH.
We have a decline in volume since this years ATH and there are several bearish patterns that have formed on various time frames, which point to LL according to what the particular patterns dictate.
1) The largest pattern is the head and shoulders pattern which spans from May 18th to current time frame. H&S tells us that BTC is headed towards $4800.00
2) Next in line is the descending price channel that began June 26th. This channel says that BTC is headed towards $4872.00
3) BTC created it's first bear flag July 12th to July 16th and the following day BTC hit $9071.00
4) Aug 12-17th Bear flag formed yet recovered on the 4hr time frame only to form a larger bear flag on the daily.
5) Bear flag #3 Aug 6th to the 20th on the daily timeframe. This bear flag is looking to go as low as $7500.00 if BTC losses it momentum.
I would stay out of this trade just to see what happens. If BTC breaks the resistance within the flag, then that is a sign of another failed bear flag and a good opportunity to secure profits. However, if BTC closes below the support line within the flag then we will see a big move downward to the size of the flag and then possibly the size of the pole.
Details on the Chart.
This is my viewpoint and my opinion. I am not giving advice but only sharing what I see. Do not enter a trade on my TA but do your own homework.
Cryptocurrency is volatile and very risky. Never invest what you can't afford to lose and always educate yourself and continue to do so when making any kind of investment.
If you find this information helpful, then please hit the like button. Your support is appreciated. Thank you!
CYA on the next one...until then, the trend is your friend. Buying on the dip and selling on the hype.
Cheers!
200 DMA Failure Confirms Bear MarketNow that the indexes have broken out of the last major down channel (drawn in blue), the 200 day moving average (in purple) is the next major resistance. The S&P 500 has failed to hold above the 200 DMA three times since Oct 2018. Holding above the 200 DMA is the real test of being in a bull market or not--bull markets hold over the 200 DMA for extended periods while bear markets are rejected at the 200 DMA. Having another major market turn at the 200 DMA, (especially without having retested Dec lows or even built any significant resistance points on the way up) is going to look very BAD in my opinion. But the market is so over extended now I don't see how it can rally over the 200 day MA and hold.
So the market moves up, whistling bullishly, oblivious to the bear market confirmation it has primed itself for. This rally has been impossible to short, but going long now would be similarly doomed. So short at the next break under the 200 day MA, and watch as the market collapses.