BTC: Think Twice Before Shorting Right NowThe drop from the Bearish Gartley BTC just had was caught quickly by the bulls, and although there are a few bearish indicators, such as the MACD on the 1D, overall BTC is still showing more bullish than bearish signs. Bulls have repeatedly held price above the 50% line inside the large consolidation pattern it is in, and just broke upward out of a smaller consolidation wedge through a price resistance line (the dotted red), currently holding well above the 618 fib. Usually a break out of consolidation like this gets more follow-up, so we'll have to see what happens. There is a decent chance BTC could break 10k soon.
Beartrap
SHOCKING PROOFS: How Whales Manipulate THE BITCOIN-MARKET!Dear Friends :)
I have the last couple of weeks, warned you again and again about extraordinary high manipulation in the Bitcoin-market (BTC/USD). I received earlier today a link on Twitter to a blog on Steemit, where a guy documents, how a group of whales are discussing, how to manipulate a market.
I therefore decided to spent a lot of time to analyze the last 2 weeks of the BTCUSD-market. I have made a comparison between the last 2 weeks and Bitcoins Price movements in the past and also looked closer in to other traditional markets the last couple of weeks (with lower and higher Market Capitalization).
Let's first define manipulation:
Controlling someone or something to your own advantage, often unfairly or dishonestly. In this case, we are talking about whales with a lot of money (usually at least 5 % of the market) is taking advantage of traders with less money to gain more wealth.
My Approach:
This is only seen from a TA-perspective. I have looked at the 1h BTCUSD chart over 14 days. I have chosen to categorize 3 different ways whales have manipulated the market:
1. Bear traps (yellow circles). To bait traders to go SHORT hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms a downtrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate SHORTS.
2. Bull Traps (red circles). To bait traders to go LONG hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms an uptrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate LONGS.
3. Shake outs (orange magnifying glass). Sudden huge price movements in either direction, WHERE normal TA-principles not necessarily confirms a clear and certain direction. Also with the purpose to liquidate either SHORTS or LONGS to achieve more control in the market.
I have furthermore used the following indicators to confirm a possible manipulation:
- Volume by time (measured and compared to the MA20 volume)
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Summary and conclusion:
1. Take notice of the long period of 14 days, where the RSI not* have been under 50, apart from the times where whales manipulated the market. We only had a period of 15 hours (look at the green rectangle) where it happened. This has never happened in this market before under similar circumstances.
Usually we only see this in parabolic runs over some few days or if we make higher highs and lows in a market, which is going up in bids with not much fluctuations and usually not for that many days in a row.
2. The amount of manipulation is extremely high compared to other periods of 14 days. I have looked into at least 25 different periods of 14 days, and I haven't yet found a period with more manipulation.
3. April the 12th 2018 we had a Bitcoin-record, when it comes to volume by hour (Volume was higher than 24 times the MA20) and it appeared after a bear trap.
4. The number of times the RSI Level is above 70 is extremely high compared to a normal period of 14 days and very high to a similar uptrend period.
What we can expect now
As you can see, yesterday was the first time we came under RSI Level 50 again and stayed there without a manipulation, which took us higher. As I told you before, I also compared this situation with 2014, where we saw the crash. If this and the 2014-path continues, I have illustrated on the RSI what we will see.
You can expect that we will continue go lower in price and the RSI stay under 50 (usually around 30-40) and when we try to go above RSI 50 you can expect that it is a bull trap. You also expect regular shake outs, and eventually it can result in a similar crash we saw in 2014.
Let's hope the best for Bitcoin though!
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I would really appreciate A BIG like this time - I spent a lot of time with all the research :)
No Correction in sight - Bulls aint playing!Hi everyone,
So regardless of what some indicators want to show, doesn't seem like bulls want to let this fall after all their hard work.
They want to start off that fomo run so they can sit back and watch everyone make this thing take off.
I can see some side ways upwards action, forming a Bullish flag. As you can see there was a big bear trap, the rising wedge broke upwards right at the end instead of a typical scenario... breaking down.
IF we do get a little sell off we have a fortress of support at 8930 area, and right below at 8800. Let's keep it moving
BTC: Bear Trap. Buyers Step in for 5th Wave: Market Cap 400BBears have failed multiple times to drop BTC 0.95% , even after it broke out of the large rising wedge on higher timeframes, which is a highly bullish signal. Market cap has increased to 400 billion and bulls are persistently pushing to complete the 5th wave.
If we take fibs from the first wave's initial large pump, we see that we hit the 127 extension, then overextended upward before dipping back down to consolidate. As history has shown time and time again, we can assume that traders will be targeting the same extension of the second wave: its 127, where we will probably overextend to test 9.5k before seeing a much stronger opportunity for the bears to short.
The Great Bear Squeeze on Bitcoin - Why they moved the marketYou may be wondering: Why the sudden price action in what looks like a clear down trend? Why did Pantera move the market?
The short answer is: The Great Bear Squeeze.
They have eliminated like 40% of the whole bear population in just a single swift move. Easy money.
At first they went short. They painted a triangle at the bottom of a down trend and tricked the market into thinking that this is a continuation pattern. Then they bought and stopped out/rekted all the bears.
So far we had 2 huge pumps on 2x the avg daily volume. Seems that they are determined to move the price further up, because they probably went long on the futures. CME futures expire on the last friday of the month, that puts it on Friday, 27th. And by 29th we might also get a golden cross on daily that will drive the price even further.
The Sentiment (Longs vs Shorts on Bitfinex) shows that we had an ATH of open shorts just before the sudden price rise. This has only happened like 3 times in the recent history of Bitcoin.
And when everybody's shorting, who's making the money? It's toxic for the coin. So, keep an eye on Sentiment. If price is moving down and there's more shorts than longs - expect a knife in your thick bear back in the dark alley of the market.
But, make no mistake, bears will return in The Great Revenge of the Bears to take their turn. Put your bear cave ad on BearBNB in advance - running, wounded, heavily beaten and bleeding bulls will need shelter.
Possible bear trap....? Disregarding the bullish market sentiment currently, I still don't believe we're out the woods yet. Why do I feel like this is a bear trap? Look at all the lows that still haven't been taken out. Price also just reached a D1 -OB and is heading towards the high of the weekly range + a psychological resistance level. Look at the two voids that STILL haven't been filled in.
BTC Purgatory ... heaven or hell?Well, interesting and confusing movements from BTC. Is this a grand setup for a bull trap, which will set off the final decent to sub 6k levels, or has grand wave 5 ended, and the confusion as sign that BTC has reached bottom, and a market reversal is fueling up?
Scenario B assumes we are now forming wave 4, and the bull trap is being set. It was clear that hovering around the 6.5k mark would not provide the steam necessary to go down to the 4k, 5k or 6k levels most were hoping for. Imagine all the margin short positions that got taken out in this last move up ... a good way for wall street to make money. And after this rise, will they achieve the momentum they'll need on a short to take BTC to a bottom that is 6k or lower?? Food for thought.
OR!!!!
Scenario C assumes we are done and the bears have given up. This would mean we've completed wave 4 AND wave 5 with a double bottom test at 6.5k BTC. This would move would also mean we are experiencing a market reversal, which would explain all the confusing signals.
Have we crossed over into a bull heaven, or are the bears gripping BTC's ankle, pulling it back into the fiery flames of hell.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
Possible Bear TrapLooking back which is never used to speculate future, BUT recently the last 2 major dips, that did this stall sideways chop suey.... AftR consolidation from big DUMP, eventually made the BIG Retrace back above the prev. LOW B4 the DUMP... So 4 now I have changed my mind, as ususal, only time will tiell. Cud Luck to all.
*** KEEP your eye on the Stochtastic RSI at bottom of chart. IF it reaches upwards close to the 70-80% I will stay Bullish, If it makes its way southern, like 30-20% are. Then re-reverse my position & be shorting XBT/USD as initital, charts indicated...
BCH looks to defy a barrier, can it do it?Looking at the trends, RVI is about to push into the sweet spot, and somehow the price has been clmibing even though the V.I. (-) should be pulling the price down. Something strange is provoking a possible bear trap.
We have a moment of truth happening somewhere over the next 8-14 days. We either break the barrier, or we drop down to a very scary low.
Trade with caution, everything I say is speculation, always consult your own. This is just a hobby for me.
BTC Head and Shoulders Bear TrapBTC nice head and shoulders pattern. What's really interesting about the price action is how we get a perfect 3 candle Bear Trap as soon as we break down from the neckline and then a flag back up(4hrcandle). The bounce at 7680 was just abt 2% off from my bounce PT from my ta of fibs and trends.
[BTC/USD] POSSIBLE FALSE BULL- DOUBLE TOP ! POSSIBLE CORRECTION!A lot needs to happen this weekend.. BTC needs to break a major zone of resistance with a double top having formed. If it does not do that in the next few days than most likely it will have a correction with a negative 19.32% correction back down, which could finally put bitcoin at a final price of approximately $7,958...
3 Major targets identified on this video... Be carefull at this point. Don't be so convinced that Bitcoin has made it and that the bulls have won! Watch BTC these next few days. I will be waiting patiently, if my TA proves to be right I will enter a large trade a the lowest point possible. If it breaks major resistance then I will re-evaluate and decide if I make a trade on BTC.
Good Luck. Give me a like if you enjoyed this video!
CrytpoBuzzAnalyst
New market cycle. Midterm signal but my god, it worth it.I know.. usually I'm a swing trader and hate having patience and seeing my money go up and down due to de waves in a coin and prefere looking at it on a day to day basis. but ADA, what a great coin. incredible dev-team. We hit rock bottom here and we just saw the announcment to a new market cycle. the Beartrap. a little wave making all weak hands sell their stuff to give intitututional investors and the 'smart money' the time to make the perfect entries for mid-longterm holding. I hope some of you have some patience and i recomment just buying as little as you want and just not put it in your blockfolio or delta app and so forget about it. this will be a nice one!
NEOUSD - Will it break the 1.618 Fib channel?After placing down this channel, I scrolled out to see and NEOUSD has never broken the 1.618 fib in this channel. That's bad.
Nearly double topped on the RSI but 70 was not hit, but stable above the 0.618 retracement. Uptick on the RSI as of writing.
I am currently in a long, hoping that it'll pop up above $120. As of writing, it looks like BTC is going to make a bear trap and holding out seems like the best option.
No stop loss, waiting for the possible bear trap to pass to and I'll freeball the order close. I may keep some if BTC goes sideways and wait for a better sell order.
Edit: OK. That was fast. Candle close in 25min for the real test.
BTC Possible Bear Traps?!Here's another look at BTC's current situation, I alluded to bear traps in my last double bottom update. Here, I zoom in on the 30min chart to show exactly what I'm referring to.
This short uptrend bounce has been very hard fought. It's almost been painful to watch. The last two bull flags didn't break out until about 79% of their own retracement. Now, I think the market can go any direction at any time, but given the slow progress of this rally, it seems odd that in the moment of most despair, a moment in which it appeared these bull flags were failing to form and breaking out back down. It seems odd it was in those moments both times that everyone chose to rally and buy when most indicators would tell you it was dropping and you had the opportunity to buy lower very soon.
I'm not much for conspiracy theories. But I'm not blind to the possibility of market manipulation either. Here we are again, we have the chance to observe and see what happens. It would be one hell of a bear trap to bounce off the 79% retracement again. In this case it also happens to fall on a potential physiological support zone being at an even 8k. Everyone is now calling for a double bottom, and I agree it could shake down like that. But, There's also the chance it bounces here and has the momentum to make it through the combined resistance of the 79% retrace and mid-line of the downward trend.
Either way, it's going to be a fun ride!
Thanks for reading, let me know what you think!
Also, not that anyone was thinking about it; but I don't recommend using any of this advise for trading...
All of my analyses are formed using my own set of highly technical and complex algorithms that I like to refer to as.. pure speculative imagination!
They've done some studies, and 60% of the time.. I'm wrong every time...
Sly2.0
Wild speculation about the retest of the low at 10k ;)What can the market do to trap people to the wrong side and then go where you thought it would be going?
This scenario is pure speculation, but a way it could play out, if you are looking for a retest of the low (10.000).
Whatever happens, always pay attention to the short-term trends (inside ranges)!
Silver huge bull setupbroke down from the trend that most would draw and assume a retracement or even bear however, even with a lower break out of the fib channel it will still be within a setup for a megaphone bull break out. Elliott wave analysis of the megaphone happened to be aligned with a 50% retracement of the December run at the end of wave 4 though this wave passes through the 38.2% at the bottom of the fibs channel meaning it might get stopped out short of the full 50% retrace. The end of Wave 5 indicates a decisive moment for longer bull or bear move however, the bull megaphone pattern combined with the longer timescale wave 5 of the channel/pennant also ending within margin of error at the breakout point does lean towards a further break of the much longer timescale pennant putting targets way up to $2500.
BTC - Time to get greedy*We are still in ALT bull run*
If there's any news about regulation in USA or Ethereum takeover the first place then we can dip upto approx 8k. If there's a china mining ban or Korean rumours to ban crypto we could easily dip upto 5K otherwise we'll still be in ALT coin bull run. Personally we will still touch 11k-12k as the BTC is still bearish overall.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”― Warren Buffett
BTC - Possible Head and Shoulders Pattern FormingWe don't analyze this pair many times, but I noticed possible head and shoulders pattern forming on 4h chart. Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. Price just need to form right shoulder. Please keep watching for the updates.