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Beartrap

TSLA G3 DUMP? Markets bounced strong today... but will Tsla join or be the one to take the hit so the other stocks can run? TSLA had a Rough Day I'll Keep this simple.. Here are my thoughts on Distribution Schematic: 114% Bull Run in 1 Month - Mainly Short-Squeeze Move We could see one more move up in a Wyckoff fashion - this will burn the $200 call options along with all the puts added in past 2 days, setting up a Bear Trap and generating more FOMO for Bull Trap 3 thus providing Liquidity for "Composite Man" to make the most $$$ -I also believe that a Markdown is needed for Institutional Buyers to get back into the stock @ lower pricing. Both Scenarios are viable, yet I'm leaning towards#1 .. but will be prepared to go with the trend. Long-Term Bull/ Short-Term Bear good Trading Today
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Black_Sheep1
2
Bull and Bear Traps!!!👨‍🏫Hello, dear traders🙋🏻; I am Pejman, and welcome to TradingView Tunes📺. As a lover of classic cartoons, I would like to explain Bull and Bear Trap using the Road Runner and Coyote cartoons😍. If you've never seen this cartoon👀, let me tell you, it's a masterpiece of trapping and pranking. But what does it have to do with financial markets🤷🏻❓ Believe it or not, there are some striking similarities between the traps Coyote🐺 sets for Road Runner🐦 and the traps that exist in financial markets💲. The market traps are known as bull🐮 and bear🐻 traps, and they can lead to significant losses if investors aren't careful.🙍🏻 For example, the Coyote paints🖌️ the road to drag the Road Runner to a suitable place and traps him with stones🪨 and TNT💣. Or he is trying to surprise the bird with TNT & cactus🌵, in another way.🤭 Large financial institutions and market makers, or whales🐋, try to deceive amateur traders in the financial markets. Like coyotes, they try to trap inexperienced people by creating fake buy🟢 and sell🔴 signals. To trade with these traps, you should know technical analysis to neutralize the coyote traps of the market like Road Runner.😉 In the financial markets, we have two types of fraudsters. Bulls are the ones who buy and cause prices to rise☝🏻, and on the contrary, bears are the ones who sell and make prices fall👇🏻. Simple enough, right😊❓ However, I explained more about bulls and bears in the market types post👀. You can refer to this post to better understand the rest of the article.👇🏻😉 Every hunter needs prey. For example, we said that the Coyote used to paint the roads. Exactly bulls, by pumping up the price and bears by a sharp drop in the price, fool the inexperienced people. Also, all these events are short-term. Like Road Runner, you have to pay close attention to the market⚠️. In this post, I will teach you how to turn threats into opportunities and profit from them.✅ The first step is to identify these traps. Our first trip today is the bull trap. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bull Trap: Let's start with the Bull Trap🏁. This is when the market looks like it's on the up-and-up⬆️, so you start throwing money around like a looney tune💸. But just like Coyote's contraptions, the market can suddenly backfire and leave you feeling like you just got hit with an anvil💥. It's enough to make you want to go "meep meep" all the way home☹️🏠. Be like Road Runner and stay alert, or you'll end up with a crate of dynamite💣 strapped to your back. That's a bull trap in a nutshell. A bull trap is when the market appears to increase, so investors jump in, hoping to make a profit. But then, the market suddenly drops, and those investors are left holding the bag👜. They thought they were getting ahead of the game but were just falling into a trap.🪤 You may be fooled by the chart and expect the price to pump up, but in reality, the price will start to fall or act like a reversal pattern.↩️ At this time, those who traded without stop loss🚫 will lose the most. It would help if you watched out for these traps in any type, whether up, down, or sideways (range market). The price must be below a resistance zone for a bull trap to form a reversal pattern. A bull trap can change an uptrend to a downtrend after creating classic reversal patterns such as double tops, heads & shoulders, diamonds, etc.😉 If you want to know the patterns and learn classic patterns with a quick review⏩, you can get help from the following post. Now that you know this trap, we can talk about ways to recognize and deal with this trap. How to recognize the Bull Trap🔎 Sir John Templeton says: The four most dangerous words in investing are: "This time it's different."🤔 We may have said these words and confused real traps with fake traps. But how can you prevent this mistake?🤷🏻 Do you remember that we talked about fake and valid breakouts in the Support and Resistance post?💭 You can also read the link below for a background on this topic. Let's go back to our topic. To ensure that the breakout is valid, we should look for two confirmation signs✅️: 1. Increase in Trading Volume 2. Bullish candlestick patterns Now let's go through each one in detail because the devil👹 is in the details 😂. Increase in Trading Volume For the breakout to be valid, the volume📶 of the broken candle must be significantly higher than the previous candles. But more is needed because coyotes are clever and intelligent. Even after the breakout, the trading volume for the other candles should remain high to ensure the failure is real. In a bull trap, the volume of the fake breakout candles either does not increase or only slightly. If you see that the trend has lost momentum after breaking out or has no strong momentum to continue or start the trend, this is precisely the trail of coyotes in the market. Along with market volume, considering candlesticks and their patterns can be equally helpful as they clearly show market movement. You can take a look at the following post to learn about these candlestick patterns and review them. For example, by seeing bullish candlestick patterns, you can understand that a breakout is not fake. Bullish Candlestick Patterns: If the breakout candle is a giant momentum candle, it's called a Marubozu , which is not difficult to find on the chart. This candle has a green and long body, and its wick is tiny compared to its body, or it does not have a wick at all. This candle is associated with a high trading volume, and it shows that TNT is not working in this upward trend, and real buyers are in the market. Also, the pattern of the 👩‍🚀👩‍🚀👨‍🚀 Three White Soldiers 👩‍🚀👨‍🚀👩‍🚀 is a reversal pattern that can be seen as a continuation pattern in the charts. Along with all these signs, you should always keep the market trend in mind. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bear Trap: Next up is the Bear Trap. This is when the market looks like it's going to crash💥 and burn🔥, so you start selling your assets like there's no tomorrow. But just like Coyote's rockets, the market can suddenly bounce back and leave you feeling like you just got flattened by an Acme anvil. Don't panic! Be like Road Runner and stay calm, or you'll fall off a cliff. Bear traps are similar to bull traps. Young and inexperienced bears🐻 are caught in these traps. When the young bears think the market is going down, these traps are activated, and the hunters place heavy buy orders. At this moment, this heavy order will cause the price to turn upward, and anyone who has a short position without a stop loss will lose their money💸. A trap is a trap, and it doesn't matter if it is a bear or a bull🐮. Here we use the duplicate confirmations we used in bull traps, like a steady increase in trading volume and continuation candlestick patterns. When a support zone is broken, hunters prepare to set traps. If the bearish momentum candle is not accompanied by increased trading volume, this can be a sign of a trap. The ⚫️⚫️⚫️ Three Black Crow ⚫️⚫️⚫️ candlestick pattern is usually a reversal pattern but sometimes acts as a continuation pattern. If a high trading volume accompanies this pattern, it can be a valid sign of a breakout. Now I will tell you how to use these traps (Bull&Bear) and get profit from them like a professional trader. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How to trade with a Bull Trap The bull traps start with an uptrend. As you can see the picture has a resistance zone, and the price may test a zone several times before passing it. When a fake breakout occurs, it may initially be accompanied by an increase in trading volume, but it is entirely temporary, and you will notice a decrease⤵️ in the intensity of the trend from the next candles. When the intensity of the trend decreases, market coyotes activate their traps. And they set sell orders, and the bloody🩸 candles appear on the chart. With a valid breakout of the last support, the price reaches our entry point station⛽️. You can place your stop loss a little higher than the top of the bull trap and place your stop loss🚫 above the breakout candlestick of the support zone, considering the higher Risk-Reward ratio. To find the take profit💰 point, consider the difference between the peak trap and the support zone as X, and Viola, now expects X amount to profit from your entry point. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How to trade with a Bear Trap Now it's time for the second trap. After occurring a valid support zone breakout and an increase in price, you must wait for the price to break through the last resistance zone after a sudden sharp move. When you can use the signs⚠️, you are sure that the coyotes have abandoned the process, that there is no trap🪤, and that real failure has happened; you can open your long positions. Now, this passed resistance zone has turned into support, and you can wait for the price to test this area several times for more confidence and then open your entry point. Like trading in bull traps, in bear traps, you can place your stop loss a little below the valley of the bear trap. Considering the higher Risk-Reward ratio, you can also put it below the breakout candle of the resistance zone. The take-profit point is the same as the bull trap, but vice versa. Consider X from the lowest price in the bear trap and the resistance zone. Now, as much as X, we can expect that the upward trend will continue and precious dollars will rain on our heads. Now that you have learned about the bull trap🪤 in an uptrend and the bear trap in a downtrend↘️, you should remember that the market is not always up🔺️ and down🔻, and the road runner should also expect traps on the range roads. You should be aware of bull/bear traps in the range market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Range Market When the price gets stuck between the support and resistance zones, the range market is created, and the coyotes also look for inexperienced road runners in this market. This is a sad story for new traders who rush into positions when they see the resistance or support zone break. Price fluctuations in range markets are minor; trading in a range market is much more complex than in bull and bear markets. So I suggest you spend more time on your trading strategies and test them several times. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion: Even in life, some coyotes seek to trick you by creating fake situations. But you have to be careful and smart like Road Runner. Sir John Templeton believes that: "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." And also, David Dreman says: "Bear markets are like avalanches: they start slowly and accelerate gradually before gaining momentum and becoming a force of nature🏞." In the financial markets, bulls and bears are constantly fighting each other, but the real winners are always those who use various tools and indicators to avoid risk and find safe spots for trading and profit. Once you practice and familiarize your eyes with all kinds of trends and traps, you will become a road runner in the market. So, if you want to be like the clever road runner and avoid falling into the bull and bear traps in the financial markets, stay alert, stay informed, and be prepared to adapt your investment💰 strategy when necessary. In future posts, we will take new steps in technical analysis and travel to the world of classic patterns. So follow the future posts and share your opinions and ideas in the comments. Your comments🎓 are precious to me. Also, if you have friends👬👭 who are into classic cartoons🎆 and trading, send them this post.
Education
by pejman_zwin
10
TSLA Kangaroo Market 3/1VIP Day for TSLA *DUMP & PUMP or PUMP & DUMP... Manipulation is Strong at these levels This Consolidation will end soon leading to continuation break-out or distribution Bullish Target $221.5 + Close above $224 will show Buyer Commitment Bearish Target: Close below $197 *POC My Patterns & Targets are on Chart Detailed Insight from: 2/28 TESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution" I can see "Pump & Dump" -Final UTAD and Possible Continuation through Wednesday with Distribution. ****TSLA is BULLISH - do not mistake my bearish insights as a short confirmation *Daily Chart is very Bullish (The best moves keep going in the same direction) I Technical/Trend/Patterns: 200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too .. -^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220-$224 area -^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side BEARISH: -Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61 (MACRO-2-3 weeks) --Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr) -Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit if a new High is made (speculation) -OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is low -contrary) -Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution _____________________________ -***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days *Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends ( Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March) - Options Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall -Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5 -Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low Positives: -Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again.. -Berlin Higher production levels --QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/ Bearish (Long-Term Bullish ) My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ... $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234. Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap ( 0.618 retracement ) Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down" *watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area -I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of" -Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Black_Sheep1
7
BTC Ranging and my plan of actions (long and short ready) Keeping this chart and idea pretty simple as those are always the best plans in my opinion. I have been observing the current BTC range which I have shown by purple lines. I am personally not interested in trading within this range, although there are plenty of trades to take, I am choosing to opt out and let this range run its course especially with a lot of major news releases upcoming. My strategy is simply to wait for buyer or seller strength to overcome the other, meaning a strong candle close outside of the range. When that range is broken (long or short) it will be important to have some altcoins prepared to trade so they should be prepared beforehand. I'll show an example of what I am watching for altcoin trades using this example of YFII-USDT: This is a chart with a strong and obvious resistance overhead. My strategy here is if BTC breaks it's range higher, then I will go through my flagged charts such as YFII and see if they have also just broken that resistance and use that to time the trades. It's important to have setups prepared for longs and shorts so that we are prepared for BTC to break the range either way. The only additional note I will make for the BTC range, is that it will be critical to pay attention to the breaks of any support and resistance I have drawn. Particularly regarding liquidity traps, essentially false breakouts. So if BTC makes a break outside of the range and then comes back into the range after a clear breakout it will be crucial to be able to flip your trading bias and recognize this as a fakeout.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Obscure_Trading
BTC Super Guppy's super prediction)) 24-25K then 28-30K or 19KDear community and my lovely followers, this analysis covers my previous one analysis about Gaussian channel and 1-7 step price action in 2015 and 2021-2022 bear markets. So if you read this one, don't miss the previous one as well. They are highly correlated. Pay attention that the same 1-7 price action movement happened bellow weekly super Guppy indicator. In 2015 when Price reached to upper red channel of Supper Guppy(#6) it dumped making double bottom(#7), now Price is approaching to the same red upper band of Supper Guppy which is about 24.5-25K(#6), which is also mid point of 5D gaussian channel(#6) + monthly diagonal resistance, range high+ 200 & 50 weekly EMA. A lot of confluences at the mentioned point . So it is less likely price will break the mentioned level at first attempt, So I expect 2015 scenario to be repeated and dumping to 18.5-19K making #7 movement and Higher Low. If you like my analyses, don't forget to like, share, comment and follow please. I need your support. I appreciate any single follow.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ergal91
2
Symmetrical Triangle on the XRP Monthly chart ready to breakout?This Triangle can also be seen well on the weekly…and also valid on the daily chart but you have to scroll over to see the whole triangle on the daily. I chose the monthly chart for this idea though because it’s the easiest one to see all the key valid touches on both the bottom and top trendlines of the triangle.That bottom trendline has been holding for 3 years now and is super strong support. We just had a flash crash on the daily dip down below it and threaten to trigger what looks like a h&s on the daily chart (not shown here) however that was quickly bought up and with very little volume to show is looking to be a classic fakeout breakdown/bear trap. Still a decent amount of hours left in todays daily candle but as long as that candle closes green it is a very good sign that this triangle will likely be breaking upwards. *not financial advice*
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
Coinbase comes in at $30 🐻❓🐂 On both the weekly and daily charts, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) oscillator is in an interesting buy region. 📈 Daily chart: On the daily chart, there was a 🐻🔫 bear trap signal. I think a possible target is at $41.89. In this troubled region marked in the yellow rectangle, there will be a window of opportunity for 📉 shorts, with a target of $30. ⚡Volatility contraction 📈 Weekly chart: 📈 Daily chart: The 21-period normalized ATR indicator on both the daily and weekly charts is showing a contraction in volatility. Touching the 21 average with the possible breakout could signal a strong move, independent of direction.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by andre_007
BTC calm before the storm, be prepared!! Total Market CapHi dear community and my loyal followers. In short I would like to update crypto market from macro perspective. I'm looking at monthly timeframe and would like to bring your attention to some bullish facts. As you see Total market Cap tested previous ATH in June 2022, the point which I called and till now I haven't changed my mind. Even the recent dump couldn't make me change my idea coz as you see it is double bottom. At the same time TOTAL Market Cap tested 0.786 fib level with 12D MACD bullish cross in a bear market which marks Bull market start and the Bear market end. BTW it has never given false signal in the whole BTC history. As you noticed every time when MACD crosses bullish the bottom was already in which proves my previous analyses about BTC bottom which I called 17.5K in June, the recent dump was a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with Double bottom + multiple indicator bullish divergences like 2021 69K which was a fake breakout / bull trap/ with double top+ multiple indicator bearish divergences. At the moment I'm waiting BTC daily candle close above 21.3-21.5K with confirmation then daily candle close above 24.5-25K with confirmation to announce officially Bull market start. BTC will surprise 99% people who are waiting lower prices like 12-10-8K and doesn't give chance to buy at such low prices jumping suddenly in a crazy way. If you like my ideas don't forget to like, comment and follow my ideas. I will appreciate any single follow. Thanks in advance.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ergal91
2
BTC Wyckoff accumulation phase before new Rally ! BTCUSD BTCUSDTHi dear community and the best followers. I hope you are fine. I appreciate your support, likes and comments. Today I'm looking at 3d chart of BTCUSD. As you know since 18 June 2022, I have been posting BTC bottomed and it is preparing for new Rally /new ATH/ before new recession and Fed Pivot starts. I expect new ATH by Q2-Q3 in 2023. If you check my other analyses bellow related ideas, you will understand why I think so. So as you see, I have drown BTC Wyckoff accumulation phase and think when BTC broke 28-30K one of the major support zone/Preliminary support/and dumped to 17.5K in June 2022, that was selling climax with huge increasing volume + smart money huge buy, that point I called the real bottom of BTC bear market based on my analyses and history data/you can check them bellow/. Then BTC did automatic rally, and dropped again to the same support zone making secondary test. The recent dump which I called fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom+ RSI bullish divergence is a spring of Wyckoff phase like 2021 November top, which was a fake breakout/ bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear divergence. At the moment I expect test of 16-16.5K then pump to 18.5-19K then 21-22K > 24-26K > 28-30K but of course with pullbacks making HH and HL. Please don't forget to follow me. I will appreciate any single follow, like and comment. Thanks in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
7
Don't miss the greatest buying opportunity. When BTC bottom? Dear community and my faithful followers, if you want to make life-changing decisions and become super rich don't wait lower prices. It isn't financial advise but I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made some years ago and don't miss the best buying opportunities. Otherwise you will blame and slap yourselves couple months later not buying #BTC and #altcoin at current levels. As I mentioned many times in my previous analyses #BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022 and the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top which was a bull trap/ fake breakout/ with double top. My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K but I expect new rally from this point. As you see on my chart, green rectangles are accumulation zones. Best buying opportunities happens when price moves inside green rectangle and 1st indicator flashes green dot penetrating in a green zone and 2d indicator flashes vertical green line and blue line appears in 25-30 zone. It happened 3 times in the whole BTC history. If you like my ideas, don't forget to like and follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
7
BTC magic indicator which shows the bottom & new bull run startHi dear community and my loyal followers. Couple weeks and months later you will understand why I think the real bottom was at 17.5K in June. I'm looking at weekly timeframe and would like to show you this magic indicator which marks the real bottom of BTC and bull run start. This magic indicator went below -10 3 times in BTC whole history, They are bear markets. When orange line crosses above blue line the bottom was already in and when blue line goes above -10 bull run starts and BTC price breaks the major diagonal resistance trendline. I'm sure BTC real bottom was at 17.5K in June and the recent dump is a fake break down/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top /69K/ which was a fake break out/ bull trap/ with double top. BTW BTC price never reached to red channel)) in its whole history. The current value of it is 14.2K. If you like my ideas, don't forget to follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
6
Is this rally a bear trap or a resuming bull? This is what we will be discussing today, and we are going to study both its technical and fundamental reasons and subsequently to derive why it is a bear trap? Or could it be a new bull in the making? I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. I have started a trading series, purpose for trading into longevity. Last week was on Buy Strategy, today on Sell Strategy. These strategies shared, they all can be applied to most markets and in different time frames. Content: a) The sell strategy – applicable to both: · Long-term – Fundamental & Technical · Short-term – Fundamental & Technical b) Bull or Bear? Some important dates: 14 Dec 21 - Fed: "Inflation no longer transitory" 10 Nov 22 – Oct CPI @ 7.7%, below expectation of 8.2% Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures Minimum fluctuation 1 index point = $0.50 10 = $5 100 = $50 Of course if you need something more sizable, there is the E-mini Dow Jones Futures. You can refer to the links below, you will find some of my past video tutorials, on how I time the different markets. As time passes, you will see how nicely most markets trend along our analysis then. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by konhow
9
BTC weekly falling wedge pattern breakout and retest!!Hi dear community and my faithful followers, let's pay attention to this weekly falling wedge pattern which has broken and retested with false breakdown/bear trap/ and double bottom+ RSI bullish divergence. At the same time RSI diagonal resistance has been broken and retested as well. On the chart you explained why I think so)). Read bellow text to understand why I think this is a false breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom. The bellow ideas are from my previous analysis coz the circumstances and the situation are the same. I think the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom + RSI bullish divergence like 2021 November top, which was a false breakout/bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear div . So I think the real bottom was at 17.5K in June like the real top in 2021 April. I'm considering that BTC has succeeded to break RSI diagonal trendline and now It is making a retest, I think it will hold and send BTC to 28-30K. On chart you can find my explanation why I think RSI diagonal resistance has broken.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
2
BTC !! Fantastic & life-changing opportunity or lower pricesI'm looking at 30D chart adding 2 customized indicators which show amazing history data)): Red columns on first indicator show BTC bottoming process in a bear market and when green color flashes after red new uptrend / bull run starts/. When green columns appears on 2d indicator it means BTC has already bottomed and when white color follows green column, it marks a new uptrend/bull run/ start. Be smart and make life-changing decisions. Don't miss such kind of fantastic opportunity. To tell the truth I don't expect lower prices. Based on my analyses new uptrend starts in December 2022: My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K - 25-30% probability and new uptrend from this point with double bottom 70-75% probability. People think BTC broke 17.5-18.5K support and expect lower prices, But I think this is one of the biggest bear traps/fake break down/ in BTC history and expect lower prices like 12-14K or even lower 8-10K. But BTC will surprise everybody like it did in 2021 November when everybody expected 100K + $ BTC, now when everyone is waiting lower prices BTC will pump with double bottom pattern as it dumped from 69K making double top. If you like my ideas , don't forget to follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
1
Bears are trapped My favorite trades to take are when bulls or bears get trapped. These have an EXTREMELY high success rate and are my favorite strategy to trade. Earlier today the bears were trapped by what looked like a pattern breaking lower, but it was regained by the bulls. The reason I love these traps is because the party (bulls/bears) that get trapped, end up getting punished. So these traps almost always begin an uptrend of some kind. so when I identify bears are trapped, I can safely enter longs on BTC or altcoins that I think will bounce the best, and I can comfortably hold them until a bearish pattern arises (rising wedge, etc), or until the bulls end up getting trapped. It ultimately makes for my highest profit trades as well as highest success rate. The "targets" on the chart aren't necessarily take profit targets, because as I said I wait for the live data to come out to tell me when I want to exit based on a technical pattern, but these targets are essentially major levels where I am expecting BTC to hit resistance and potentially a site where the next bull trap could happen.
Long
by Obscure_Trading
9
BTC's Downward Breakout May Trap BearsChart 1 : BTCUSD's Downward Breakout From Bear-Flag Channel (Chart 1 also includes a hypothetical price path showing one probable way that price could retest the channel and the downward trendline that has held as resistance since November 2021. BTC's Downward Breakout from Parallel Channel/b] On August 19, 2022, BTC fell over -10%, breaking out below its upward sloping bear-flag channel. This parallel channel has contained price since the June 18, 2022, low at $17,592. The breakout below the channel was also decisive with a taller bearish candle that closed very near the low for the day. As price has continued to rally, volume has dwindled. This represents lack of conviction in the rally when volume does not support each subsequent push higher. Potential Retest of the Parallel Channel In weighing the likelihood of a potential retest of the parallel channel that has defined this bear rally, consider the following points: 1. No one can say with certainty whether the bear rally is finished or whether the downtrend is complete. However, the bear rally may not be complete, and bears opening shorts on this breakout may be trapped in the coming days / weeks. Bull and bear traps have been a common occurrence in this bear market. Note that this is a short-term view only—the longer-term price action and trend structure remain quite bearish, and this author does not advocate a long investment strategy at this time in BTC . 2. Even though the macroeconomic environment remains poor with sticky inflation and tightening financial policy likely to continue in the intermediate term or long term, corrective rallies can push higher and longer than most expect. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Market research studies have shown that some of the strongest, sharpest rallies in equity markets have occurred during prolonged bear markets. Look no further than the recent rally: the macroeconomic picture has remained relatively unchanged, but equity indices and cryptocurrencies have rallied significantly in the past two months. 3. While the bear rally may constitute an upward correction within the downtrend, consider that the recent decline on August 19, 2022, may simply constitute a correction within a correction. Stated differently, today's decline may represent a retracement within an ongoing bear rally that has already pushed over 40% higher from June 2022 lows. And the ongoing bear rally is itself a larger-degree retracement within a ten-month downtrend. 4. Breakouts above / below trendlines or channels commonly lead to short-term reversals that (at a minimum) retest the breakout point. In this case, a retest of the channel would lead price to the $23,000 to $24,000 range. Like every common price pattern, whipsaws involving retests of breakout points do not always occur. 5. Currently, price has declined to just above the .618 retracement of its entire rally off the June 2022 low near $17,592. This .618 retracement level frequently holds as initial support or resistance when price corrects a recent price move. The zone between the .618 retracement and the .786 retracement should be watched carefully over the coming week. If it holds firmly as support, this could indicate that the decline is part of a correction within an ongoing larger bear rally off June 2022 lows. (Note that the .618 retracement can be important both during corrective rallies within uptrends and corrective bounces within downtrends.) Supplementary Chart: BTC's Recent Decline May Pause or Reverse at the Zone between the .618 and .786 Retracement Levels Potential Test of the Ten-Month Down Trendline Corrective price patterns frequently work havoc on bears and bulls who want to see consistent trendlike price action in one direction or the other. Note that corrective patterns can be upward, as in the current bear rally within BTC's downtrend, or they can be downward, as the In the short term, price has chopped back and forth within the corrective parallel channel shown in Chart 1. Further, corrections can unfold in complex combinations as Elliott Wave theory teaches. For BTC, the current bear rally is an upward correction. This upward correction And a two-month bear rally could be the first segment of a complex correction—alternatively, it could be the end of the corrective retracement. The primary chart, Chart 1, shows in blue the major down trendline that has defined this downtrend in BTCUSD. This down trendline has contained price since early November 2021 may still be tagged in the coming days or weeks. Important levels of support or resistance tend to act as a magnet for price when price approaches them. The retest of the parallel channel could in theory coincide with a test of the down trendline in early September 2022. If this happened, the test would occur at a price of approximately $23,500 to $24,000. Finally, while many have concluded the final lows were made and others see this as a bear rally, this bear rally still constitutes an upward correction within a downtrend until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise . So this article posits that price could continue the upward correction (retracement) higher or sideways over the next few weeks, and that today's decline might be a downward correction within the corrective bear rally. And any rally may trap bulls with another sharp move lower. After all, markets in equities and crypto have continued to confound bears and bulls alike leaving market makers with bulging pockets full of profits. NOTE: This article is intended to present a relatively objective view of BTC's current price action and key levels using technical analysis. The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 19-20, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures , BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives. DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
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