THE FALL OF BITCOIN???? Trends. Wycoff. Log scale. These are my thoughts only and in no way Financial advice. The crypto space has had a very wishy washy feel to it over the last two months. Lots of doubt and indecision. Lots of people spouting and touting the "Bullish" cards while very few I see playing the bearish side. Blinded Optimism possibly? ...time will surely tell.
This is a very simple chart that really only focus on the overall trend/s. One of Jessie Livermore 's most crucial lessons was to never ignore the trend. While some have charts that say we are above the trend lines as of now (the two trend lines I am referring to are the yellow and green on this chart) As this is a 4 hour chart, if you were to look at the daily, we are bumping up against the 200ma that seems to have heavy resistance, and in this 4 hour struggling to pull the 50 above the 200.
Volume is overall still high, and has grown higher overall which ads to a LONG TERM BULLISH trend that I think everyone and their cousin can agree on....Everyone wants to know, how low and when, however.
Over the last few days on btc's last uptrend we have increased price with decreasing volume. A sign of weakness in price imo. Volume trend always proceeds price so based on that alone I say we will go down yet again - based on this mornings chart it clearly looks like the yellow line has slammed the door on BTC and now btc is running away with tears in its face heading down. With the lack of volume over the last few days and overall weak support on the daily I find it very likely that we will drop down to the 9k 9300 level soon. If that doesnt hold then we'll find our next support on the ORANGE trend line around 8k.
This 8000 price point trend line area will be a key support. If that breaks, I do think we'll drop right through the red line/long term support and take us down to the 3.5 - 5k level.
I have not been trading any of this market since we had the major dump to 6k in Jan. Overall I think we can likely be looking at a Wycoff distribution cycle that is finishing a LPSY and about ready to drop the bottom out at any time. From there it will go into an accumulation period where tons of the smart money will come into the crypto market. (smart money is already in and aiding to this manipluation imo)
The weak volume over the last few days and, now dropping price has me leaning towards a lower low yet to achieve. Get your buys ready.
Simply put - If we break the Green trend line I have labeled here - its very likely we can be full on bullish. (although I'd still like us to get above 16k to say we are in the clear.... If we drop through the orange or red trend line then we can expect a very low low incoming.
IF we stay inbetween the lines over the next few week - watch for a breakout either side and that should signify a likely direction on the short term.
"Sometimes no position is the best position. A compulsion to trade leads to disaster." Peter Brant.
