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Cashing out on market asymmetries Skip to the second paragraph to get to the point, first paragraph discusses observations... What you see in the bottom of the screen is a script I recently published just for fun; it's a momentum measurement for bitcoin against several fiat pairs and crypto pairs, and all summed together. The top of the screen is essentially the btc price, but somewhat more reactive. What is really interesting here is that on the morning of 21.11 the red line (which represents the sum of bitcoin momentum across multiple pairs) took a steep dive to an order of magnitude less than it has often been at (bottom pink circle), an obvious red flag for long holders. Then 3 hours later the XBTUSD price took a quick decline as well! The steep decline in the momentum looks largely responsible by the DASHBTC pair, but took a few hours to show in the BTCUSD pair. The reason so many prices of cryptos are stable is because of the work of the people doing arbitrage, this normalizes the market. However in this case it took longer than expected, possibly for a number of reasons, due to time of day, blockchain verification delays, or simply there are not so many arbitrage bots on the DASHBTC pair, or any other reason... Then 3 hours later the bitcoin price followed suit. The insane divergence of DASHBTC from the overall value of BTC can be taken in only 2 ways: Dash has a sudden market strength, or money is moving from BTC to DASH, possibly foreshadowing a decline in BTC. What would be interesting is a suite of indicators that measure how volume moves through a specific crypto to find its overall worth (ie. multiple exchanges and multiple pairings). If a lot of money is being poured into, or out of, one pair then the overall value may also be effected with a time delay. Enough of a time delay to get a great position (like the 3 hours mentioned above). I will need to think about how to appropriately measure this, normalizations schemes, volumes, momentum, price, ect... If anyone wishes to discuss ideas related to this I would be more than happy to talk. Cheers!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by mcbw_
2
Crude Oil Brent: UKOIL Looking to close out on test of 63.80UKOIL: Crude Oil Brent Update In the last comment stops were raised to just under 60 as we continue to run this long-pull swing trade to its conclusion, which may happen on Tuesday coming. The low yesterday was 60.01, so it came within 6 pips of stopping out before rallying once more. A damn close run thing, as Wellington said of the battle of Waterloo. Still looking to close out on the fourth strike of the upper parallel that's controlling this entire up-wave, around 63-80 to 64.20 range, if struck. If not will probably close out just before the Opec meeting on Tuesday coming. Long-time readers may remember we ran with the last Spring rally earlier this year right up to the morning of the Opec meeting on 24th May, selling right off the highs at 54 and then buying back at 44 and then again at 46 for the current rally. Selling on the news, well just before it, may well prove to be right thing to do again. Ideally, Brent will hit the upper parallel around 64 and that will be time to exit with 1800 pips of profit (with 30 pips of original risk) on a 4 month trade. (Try making those profits on Nasdaq, cowboy) Otherwise will likely sell before Opec (on Monday night). Of all the 100,000's of financial instruments out there from Bitcoin and other less reliable fiat currencies through to bonds and stocks no instrument trends like Big Oil. Nothing is so wave-like, trend-like, or, usually, so helpful to traders. If anyone knows a better complex to trade than Big Oil, from a technical perspective, please message. The stop has to stay under 60 for now.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
DXY before open - be careful hereDXY Dolar index Low at 97.28 just 2 pips under the trigger - looks very bearish but concerned about getting sucked in before the open....need to be careful here as a chance of quick rally towards the upper parallel before coming off again. Whilst trapped under that parallel the Dollar will remain under pressure and will turn full-on bearish on a break below 97.30-97.28 after the open. Apologies. This should have been made clearer first time, not now. But for newer traders be wary of pre-market moves - we need to see volume for confirmation!
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon