Beginner
All About the Flag Pattern (Beginner-Friendly)Hello everyone,
Today, I’ve prepared an educational guide on chart patterns, specifically focusing on the Flag Pattern.
This content is designed to be easy for beginners to follow, so I hope you find it engaging and informative. :)
Below is the outline I’ll be using for this post:
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✔️ Outline
1. What is a Flag Pattern?
Definition
Key Components
Characteristics
2. Bullish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
3. Bearish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
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1. What is a Flag Pattern?
1) Definition
A Flag Pattern forms during a brief consolidation phase after a strong price movement, often signaling the continuation of a trend. It typically appears when prices make a sharp move, either up or down, followed by a period of sideways or slightly counter-trend movement.
Flag Patterns can occur in both uptrends and downtrends, named for their resemblance to an actual flag. After a strong price move, the market consolidates briefly before continuing in the original trend direction.
2) Key Components
Flagpole: The initial strong price movement that sets the overall trend direction before the consolidation phase.
Flag: The consolidation period where prices move sideways or slightly counter to the trend, often forming a rectangle or parallelogram. This phase typically occurs with a decrease in trading volume.
Breakout: The moment when the price resumes its original trend direction. In an uptrend, this is an upward breakout, and in a downtrend, a downward breakout, confirming the continuation of the trend.
3) Characteristics
Duration: The Flag Pattern typically lasts longer than the Flagpole but varies depending on the timeframe.
Volume: Volume usually decreases during the Flag’s formation and increases once the breakout occurs.
Reliability: The Flag Pattern is considered a reliable indicator of trend continuation, making it a favorite among traders using trend-based strategies.
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2. Bullish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
A Bullish Flag forms after a strong upward price movement, signaling a temporary consolidation phase. During this consolidation, volume typically decreases, suggesting that the market is pausing rather than reversing. After this phase, the price often continues its upward trend, accompanied by an increase in volume. Bullish Flag Patterns also help relieve overbought conditions in technical indicators, providing the market with a chance to prepare for another move up.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2023 shows a strong Flagpole followed by a long consolidation phase (Flag). The volume then increased as the price broke out, completing the Bullish Flag Pattern.
2-2) Example 2
In this chart from March 2021, we see a similar setup: a strong Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase, leading to a breakout that continued the upward trend.
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3. Bearish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
The Bearish Flag Pattern is the inverse of the Bullish Flag. It follows a strong downward move (Flagpole) and is followed by a period of consolidation (Flag) with decreasing volume. Like its bullish counterpart, the Bearish Flag can relieve oversold conditions, leading to a continuation of the downtrend after a breakout.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2022 displays a Bearish Flag Pattern: a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a Flag consolidation phase. After the consolidation, a breakout occurred, continuing the downtrend.
2-2) Example 2
This chart from February 2022 also illustrates a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase (Flag), leading to a breakout that completed the Bearish Flag Pattern.
This guide will help you better understand the Flag Pattern and how it can be used in your trading strategy effectively!
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✔️ Conclusion
I hope the various Flag Patterns and market analysis techniques covered in this post prove helpful in your investment journey. Chart analysis is not merely a technical skill but also a deeper understanding of market psychology and movement. Flag Patterns, along with other chart patterns, visually reflect the psychological dynamics of the market. Mastering their use can greatly contribute to successful trading.
That being said, the crypto market is inherently unpredictable and fast-moving. While technical analysis is a valuable tool, it’s important to adopt a comprehensive approach that considers broader market trends and external factors. I encourage you to apply the insights gained from this post with a balanced and cautious perspective when making investment decisions.
New opportunities are constantly emerging, and those who are prepared to seize them will find success. The chart represents the market’s voice. Listening to it, interpreting it, and making informed decisions based on that interpretation is "the essence" of chart analysis.
I sincerely hope that, through continuous learning and experience, you’ll evolve into a more confident and successful investor.
Identifying Key Support and Resistance Levels: Beginner’s GuideWelcome to the market’s game of zig-zag. On the one side, we’ve got the bulls pulling prices up (doing the zigging), and on the other, the bears dragging them down (doing the zagging). Somewhere in there lies a delicate balance—where prices pause, reverse, or break through. These are support and resistance levels, and if you want to play in the big league and run shoulders with big sho(r)ts, you need to know how to spot them. Let’s dive in.
Support and Resistance: The Basics
Imagine the market as a ping-pong ball bouncing between two invisible walls. These invisible walls are called support and resistance . The floor is support—where buyers step in to catch the fall. The ceiling? That’s resistance, where sellers say, “Not so fast,” and push the price back down. Your job? Figure out where these walls are and use them to your advantage.
Support is the price level where a downtrend could pause due to strong enough demand, or buying momentum. Think of it as a safety net—a level where the price stops its freefall, cushioned by determined buyers.
Resistance is the opposite. It’s the price level where an uptrend might stall because sellers step in, seeing the price as overbought. It’s the market’s ceiling, and breaking through it can be tough.
How to Spot Support and Resistance
Here’s the good news: spotting these levels is easier than you think. Start by zooming out on your chart and identifying where price reversals have occurred. Where has the market consistently bounced up from? That’s your support. Where has it been smacked down? That’s your resistance.
That’s also when everyone becomes a chartist and technical analyst—draw horizontal lines at these levels. And boom, you’ve just identified key support and resistance zones. But there’s more to it than just connecting the dots.
Horizontal Levels: The Classics
The classic way to identify support and resistance is to look for horizontal levels. These are price levels where the market has historically reversed multiple times. If the price has bounced off $50 three times, you’ve got yourself a solid support level. Likewise, if $75 has been a brick wall for the price, it’s a clear resistance level.
Trendlines: The Dynamic Duo
Horizontal lines are great, but what if the market’s trending? That’s where trendlines come in. Draw a line connecting the higher lows in an uptrend or the lower highs in a downtrend. These lines can act as moving support or resistance levels. They’re not just lines—they’re the market’s roadmap. Want to get things even more heated up? Look for channels by identifying the higher lows in the uptrend coupled with the higher highs. Apply the same but in reverse for downtrending markets—lower highs and lower lows is what makes up a channel.
The Role of Volume
Here’s where it gets a little spicy. You have to add volume in the mix. When you see a support or resistance level holding up with high volume, it’s like getting a thumbs-up from the market. If the price breaks through a level with high volume, it’s more likely to keep moving in that direction. Low volume? Don’t get too excited—it could be a fake-out.
Psychological Levels: The Round Numbers Game
Ever noticed how prices tend to stall at round numbers? That’s no accident. Humans love round numbers and the market is no different. Levels like $100, $1,000, or even $100,000 (did someone say Bitcoin BTC/USD ?) often act as psychological support or resistance. It’s not science—it’s market psychology.
How to Trade Support and Resistance
Now that you know where the walls are, or inflection points, let’s talk strategy. Trading support and resistance isn’t about guessing where the market will go—it’s about stacking the odds in your favor.
Buying at Support (DYOR, tho) : When the price pulls back to a support level, it’s a prime buying opportunity. Just remember, you’re not the only one watching this level—fellow retail traders, professional money spinners and lots of algorithms are trained to chase trends. Use additional confirmation, like a bunch of indicators stacked together , before you pull the trigger.
Selling at Resistance (DYOR, tho) : If the price rallies to a known resistance level, it’s time to think about selling. Again, wait for some confirmation—a rejection, bearish pattern, or a volume spike—to avoid getting caught in a breakout.
Breakout Trades (DYOR, tho) : If a price breaks through support or resistance with conviction (read: strong volume), it often leads to significant moves. You can trade these breakouts, but be cautious of false breakouts. Nobody likes getting trapped.
Final Thoughts
Support and resistance levels are like the market’s heartbeat. They reveal where the big players are making their moves and where the action is likely to heat up. Whether you’re looking to jump in or bail out, these levels are your go-to guide. So, the next time you’re analyzing a chart, remember—those lines aren’t just random. They’re the market’s battle lines, and now, you’ve got the intel to trade them.
Let’s wrap this up with some inspiration from legendary trend follower Paul Tudor Jones:
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”
Do you trade with support and resistance levels? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section!
Alt coin bullish Alligator pattern wishful thinking predictionUnseasoned investor and inexperienced charter's 'wishful thinking' alt coin bullish alligator pattern price prediction with doodle. I watched an Alex Becker video and didn't notice why he kept saying alligators was his favorite animal in a joke multiple times. I didn't think anything of it at first, but later on a different day I was attempting to look at the charts and do some 'technical analysis' I googled some different chart patterns that may looked similar to the chart I was looking at. That is when I came across the alligator pattern. I started to think that was why Alex kept saying it over in that joke he made on that 1 video. Now idk if they will release m-pox and start war for mail in votes and for money, or if the economy will crash and then we will go into depression, because I still haven't learned how to research and what data to research to 100% know that answer, and I know that could also just be an okie doke from Alex Becker doing that to intentionally still throw ppl who reading between the lines as a joke, but from a few charts I looking at is pointing towards that 'banana zone' phase for alts. If you are an experienced investor, chartist, and macro understanding, then you may see something totally different and see a bearish depression ahead. If so, feel free to inform me kick some knowledge
How to start Trading!We (the discord mods) are trying to get a document going where people can look for advice on how to get started in trading, its not an easy question and certainly not an easy answer, but here we go :)
Be prepared that to becoming a profitable trader you will need months (even years) of training and learning, but its worth the time!
The beauty of Tradingview and its tools (Paper trading) is that you can learn it all for free. (All you need is time). You can demo trade for free, learn and experiance how the market moves, learn what you want to do later in life and learn all the nessessary tools you will need!
We realize that certain information is maybe something that you dont agree first or you say "what? that cant be real?", but bear with us for the time being, go through this document and then decide!
So, lets start with the first question for you:
What lifestyle do you have at the moment?
Why is that important? well, for each trade you need a few hours of preparation, and if you are a daytrader (intraday trader or scalper) then you trade each day (even multiple times) and each time you need preparation, can you do that? can you sit 4-6h infront of the computer everyday to analyse a trade?
If not, we have other options for you.. for example swing trader or investor.
What type of person are you?
For example: if you decide to do scalping, be prepared to get more stressful situations then a daytrader.
So it's important to figure out how you want to trade and what you can actually handle (the psychology in trading has a HUGE impact of your trading life.)
If you go and test out some strategies and you realize that this is not for you, then you have a clear sign that you shouldnt explore this further.
What type of assets can you trade?
There are local laws that you have to follow in your country that may be restrictive to certain assets so you have to figure out what you can actually trade. There are plenty of assets outthere, you just have to explore them and search for a broker you can actually sign up with a KYC.
For this, the best option is to go to Brokers and check them out until you find one that is allowed in your country.
(Be careful with brokers not on tradingviews list, for example if you want to trade crypto but its not allowed in your country but you find some broker you can sign up, the problem comes once you want to withdraw and use the money in your country. your local bank is most likely not letting you do that.)
Basics of Trading
No matter what you decide to be (daytrader, scalper, investor..), you will need to learn the basics of all of them.
Learn all the basic Terms such as:
- Long / Short (Bullish / Bearish)
- Bid / Ask (combined with spread below)
- Crypto, Forex, CFD, Stocks, Options (Bonds, Shares, Indices...)
- Market Order / Limit Order (Stoploss (SL), Profit Target (TP), Trailing)
- Leverage
- Margin / Balance
- Spread / Slippage
- Gaps
- Ranges
- Timeframe / Sessions
And then there are the major Indicators:
- RSI
- MACD
- Stochastics
- Moving Averages (simple, exponential, smoothed, and so on..)
- Price trends
- Support and Resistance (Supply & Demand)
- Volume
I know, alot of you reading this go like "What? indicators are useless, price action is the real deal.." but thats not the point here, we are learning the basics of trading. The more you know the better you will be at trading. Knowledge is power.
Also i would advice you to study the math behind them too, while you do that you learn how and why they act the way they do!
Journal
Yes, we all hate it but we all know why its good to do! :)
The simplest method i find is to use the long/short tool of tradingview, write down the notes in a textfield and then hide it in the control-center of your drawings (rightclick into chart -> Object Tree)
Do it! you won't regret it!
Risk Reward
This topic is something so many of you ignore and its one of the most important part of trading.
You all heard the sentence "there is no trading without SL" and some of you may think "yeah, thats not true", but in the Risk Reward section you learn how and why this sentence is as true as it gets. you never, ever trade without SL because otherwise you cant calculate your risk.
There is also the golden rule "Never risk more then 1% of your Money" and with an SL you can manage this sentence, without it, how can you even begin to manage this? you can't.
(Yes, i know some of you risk 2-5%, but not me, im a firm believer you should never break this rule).
If you risk 1% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 10%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 4 wins to regain your losses.
If you risk 2% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 20%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 7 wins to regain your losses.
... you see where this goes, right?
For this, and any other topic above, the best thing to use is the Search function on tradingview, input the title and read it all. (yes, all, yes it will take weeks, yes tahts what its all about)
Psychology
Okey, this one is a big one. not gonna lie, that will take the most time because we are all humans.
you will experiance FOMO (fear of missing out), greed, rage, and so on... thats just normal.
Thats the biggest reason to start journaling your trades, write down what you felt, why did you take a trade that you realize you shouldnt have in the first place?
So, in psychology everyone needs to figure out how he/she is obviously, i can just tell you how i do it right now and what steps made the biggest impact:
I do only 1:2 RR trades.
- Yes, after 1:2 im out, i dont care if he goes to the moon, all i care is that im no longer in a trade (my mind plays all kinds of tricks while in a trade.)
- Big impact!
I only trade 1 asset.
- I trade EURUSD all day long for years now. No, i dont look at others while im actively trading.
- Big impact!
I set and forget.
- i put in my SL and TP and once im in the trade (or even set the limit order) im semi-afk from the charts.
- I have 2 alerts on my tradingview, one for the TP and one for the SL. thats it.
those few steps helped me a ton in my trading, and yes, they may not be for everyone but it is just a showcase of hwo you need to find something that works for you.
Fibonacci Retracement style Bollinger Bands & Awesome OscillatorThe over idea behind the strategy is very simple.
We all know how to use Fibonacci Retracements and Bollinger Bands.
The indicator on top combines both using Fib levels in a Bollinger band fashion. (I did not make the indicator)
On the bottom we have the Awesome Oscillator (Also not my creation) reading on the 200 for accuracy.
The Oscillator is used to determine momentum and volume to indicate momentum loss and gain.
Using primarily Price Action and the Fib. Bollingers, we can determine reversals and determine with some accuracy where we're going.
This strategy has been tested, tested and more tested and has high accuracy, low loss and high gains.
It's a good choice for beginners and veteran scalpers alike.
Feel free to leave a comment below, ideas, criticism, ect. DM me if you nee any technical analysis, I have over a decade in the field and am always looking to help others.
🔜RULE FOLLOWING CHALLENGE, join to improve your trading 💪Did you know that most beginner traders can't follow their rules for 7 days in a row? Unfortunately, they start overtrading or changing the rules of the system, entering random trades, overrisk, etc.
I've been there many many times myself, but then slowly started focusing on this part and made my first 7, then 10 days of rules following, broke with another tilt, started again, reached 17, 30 days, and failed again.
Each time it became better and better, and now I'm on my way to 50 days of rule-following.
I developed a routine and system that allows me to keep doing it, day after day. It includes mental technics, as well as simple EAs for Metatrader to help with over-risking and overtrading issues.
If you want to step out of your comfort zone and improve your trading, join this 7-day rule-following challenge by leaving a comment below.
It will be hosted here on TradingView, probably using the Stream feature, but I'll let you know later when we will gather up.
Demystifying Algo Trading: A Comprehensive Guide for Beginners
In the fast-evolving landscape of financial markets, algorithmic trading, commonly known as algo trading, has emerged as a powerful and accessible tool. Today we have created a comprehensive guide for beginners, breaking down the concept, exploring its benefits, and providing insights to facilitate a successful journey into algo trading. Are you ready? Let's dive in!
Understanding Algo Trading
The Role of Algorithms- Algo trading, at its core, involves using algorithms that have predefined sets of rules and instructions to automate the process of trading financial assets. Algorithms are the engines that drive trade decision-making. Trading algorithms execute trading entries and exits of varying complexity. Understanding how algorithms function and their role in the trading process is fundamental for beginners. If you are considering utilizing a trading algorithm, understand how it functions to the best of your abilities. Understanding how an algorithm will work can help limit downside risk or other unwanted results.
Key Components of an Algo Trading System- An algo trading system is a sophisticated ensemble of components. These include data sources, where information about financial instruments is gathered; the algorithm itself, which interprets data and makes decisions; and the execution platform, which translates decisions into actual trades. Knowing these components and their interplay provides a foundational understanding of algo trading systems.
Benefits and Advantages
Speed and Efficiency- The primary advantage of algo trading lies in its speed. Algorithms can execute trades at a pace impossible for humans, capitalizing on even the slightest market fluctuations. This speed is not just a luxury but a necessity in today's fast-paced market, where opportunities and risks can arise and vanish in milliseconds.
Complex Strategy Execution- Algorithms excel at handling intricate trading strategies involving multiple parameters and decision points. This complexity, which might overwhelm manual traders, is seamlessly managed by algorithms. They can simultaneously process vast amounts of data, identify patterns, and execute trades according to predefined criteria.
Error Minimization- Emotions and errors often go hand in hand in traditional trading. Algo trading removes the emotional component, ensuring that trades are executed based on logic and predefined criteria. This absence of emotional decision-making minimizes the risk of costly errors caused by fear, greed, or hesitation.
Access to Various Markets and Asset Classes- Algorithms can be set up to trade across different markets and asset classes simultaneously. This diversification is challenging for individual traders but is a strength of algo trading. By spreading trades across various instruments, traders can manage risk more effectively and seize opportunities in different financial arenas.
Choosing the Right Algo Trading Platform
Factors to Consider- Choosing the right platform involves more than just functionality. It encompasses factors like user-friendliness, asset coverage, and backtesting capabilities. A platform that aligns with your trading goals and preferences is essential for a seamless algo trading experience. TradingView is a notable platform. TradingView stands out for its social community and advanced analysis tools, providing a holistic trading experience. Trading algorithms can be launched from nearly any TradingView chart, and signals can be sent to various exchanges to execute trades via a third-party connector.
Risk Management in Algo Trading
The Importance of Risk Management- While the speed and precision of algo trading are advantageous, they can amplify losses if not managed properly. As a trader, we must remember that the algorithm will only do what it's told to do. Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, is vital. This aspect of algo trading is not just about making profits; it's about safeguarding your capital and ensuring longevity in the market.
Diversification as a Risk Mitigation Strategy- Diversifying trading strategies and portfolios can spread risk and prevent overexposure to a single asset or market condition. While individual trades may carry inherent risks, a diversified portfolio minimizes the impact of adverse movements in a specific instrument or sector. Diversification is a fundamental principle for risk-conscious algo traders, and this is why it is important to have algorithms trading different assets.
Realizing Success in Algo Trading
Continuous Monitoring- Algo trading is a dynamic field and not a set-it-and-forget method of trading. Each algorithm a trader runs needs to be continuously monitored for performance and functionality. A runaway algorithm can easily hurt any trader's capital. Successful algo traders adapt their strategies to changing market conditions. Avoiding over-optimization and remaining flexible are keys to sustained success. The ability to tweak algorithms based on evolving market dynamics ensures that algo traders stay relevant and effective over the long term.
Conclusion
Algo trading is not reserved for financial experts. It's a realm open to anyone willing to learn and adapt. The journey begins with understanding the basics, choosing suitable strategies, and embracing continuous learning. As you embark on your algo trading adventure, remember: it's not about predicting the future but navigating the present while utilizing the past. Happy trading!
Beginner Supply & Demand $SPY Chart Hey Guys, feel free to copy me,
This chart is for beginners and new traders who're trying to understand supply and demand a little better! This shows an up-to-date picture of AMEX:SPY as of 1:00pm EST 8/24/2023.
You'll notice the green and red rectangles across the screen. I color coordinated them for psychology reasons for you (personally I have all my zones white/gray). Think of the green boxes as BUYERS/SUPPORT and the red boxes as SELLERS/RESISTANCE.
Supply = Resistance = Sell
Demand = Support = Buy
The terms aren't identical from a definition standpoint but for simplicities sake, you can use them interchangeably and associate them with each other.
When drawing a demand/supply zone you want to look for LOW extremes and it strongly reverses to the upside (demand) or vice versa look for HIGH extremes and it strongly reverse to the downside (supply).
There's ALOT more to it you can easily find reputable resources on youtube for free but as a quick 5 minute rundown, I hope this helps, and happy trading !!
MOST THINGS SUCCESSFUL TRADERS DO AND THE SECRET BEHIND FOREX A single formula for success for trading in the financial markets. Think of the markets as being like the ocean and the trader as a surfer. Surfing requires talent, balance, patience, proper equipment, and mindfulness of your surroundings. Would you go into water that had dangerous rip tides or was shark-infested? Hopefully not.
The attitude to trading in the Forex markets is no different. By blending good analysis with effective implementation, your success rate will improve dramatically, and, like many skill sets, good trading comes from a combination of talent and hard work. Here are the four strategies to serve you well in all markets, but in this article, we will focus on the Forex markets.
Approaching Forex Trading
Before you trade, recognize the value of proper preparation. It's important to align your personal goals and temperament with relatable instruments and markets. For example, if you understand retail markets, then it makes sense to trade retail stocks rather than oil futures, about which you may know nothing. It also helps to begin by assessing the following three components:
Given its low commissions and fees, the Forex market is very accessible to individual investors. However, before you trade, make sure you have a solid understanding of what the Forex market is and the smart ways to navigate it. Learn the basics and see real-time examples of the approaches and strategies detailed in my youtube video
Time Frame
The time frame indicates the type of trading that is appropriate for your temperament. Trading off a fifteen-minute chart suggests that you are more comfortable taking a position without exposure to overnight risk. On the other hand, choosing weekly charts indicates comfort with overnight risk and a willingness to see some days go contrary to your position.
In addition, decide if you have the time and willingness to sit in front of a screen all day or if you prefer to do your research over the weekend and then make a trading decision for the week ahead based on your analysis. Remember that the opportunity to make substantial money in the Forex markets requires time. Short-term scalping, by definition, means small profits or losses. In this case, you will have to trade more frequently.
Methodology
Once you choose a time frame, find a consistent methodology. For example, some traders like to buy support and sell resistance. Others prefer buying or selling breakouts. Some like to trade using indicators, such as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) and crossovers.
Once you choose a system or methodology, test it to see if it works on a consistent basis and provides an edge. If your system is reliable more than 60% of the time, you should consider that an edge, even if it's a small one. Test a few strategies, and when you find one that delivers a consistently positive outcome, stay with it and test it with a variety of instruments and various time frames.
Market (Instrument)
You will find that certain instruments trade much more orderly than others. Erratic trading instruments make it difficult to produce a winning system. Therefore, it is necessary to test your system on multiple instruments to determine that your system's "personality" matches the instrument being traded. For example, if you were trading the EUR/USD currency pair in the Forex market, you may find that Fibonacci support and resistance levels are more reliable.
Your Forex Trading Attitude
Behaviour is an integral part of the trading process, and thus your attitude and mindset should reflect the following four attributes:
Patience
Once you know what to expect from your system, have the patience to wait for the price to reach the levels that your system indicates for either the point of entry or exit. If your system indicates an entry at a certain level but the market never reaches it, then move on to the next opportunity. There will always be another trade.
Discipline
Discipline is the ability to be patient—to sit on your hands until your system triggers an action point. Sometimes, the price action won't reach your anticipated price point. At this time, you must have the discipline to believe in your system and not second-guess it. Discipline is also the ability to pull the trigger when your system indicates to do so. This is especially true for stop losses.
Objectivity
Objectivity or "emotional detachment" also depends on the reliability of your system or methodology. If you have a system that provides entry and exit levels that you find reliable, you don't need to become emotional or allow yourself to be influenced by the opinion of pundits. Your system should be reliable enough so that you can be confident in acting on its signals.
Realistic Expectations
Even though the market can sometimes make a much bigger move than you anticipate, being realistic means that you cannot expect to invest $100 in your trading account and make $1,000 each trade. Although there is no such thing as a "safe" trading time frame, a short-term mindset may involve smaller risks if the trader exercises discipline in picking trades. This is also known as the trade-off between risk and reward.
Motivating Forex Trading Factors
Instruments trade differently depending on the major players and their intent. For example, hedge funds vary in strategy and are motivated differently than mutual funds. Large banks that are trading in the spot currency markets usually have a different objective than currency traders buying or selling futures contracts. If you can determine what motivates the large players, you can often align that knowledge to your advantage.
Alignment
Pick a few currencies, stocks, or commodities, and chart them all in a variety of time frames. Then apply your particular methodology to all of them and see which time frame and instrument align with your system. This is how you discover alignment within your system. Repeat this exercise regularly to adapt to changing market conditions.
Implementing a Forex Trading Strategy
There is no such thing as only profitable trades, just as no system is a 100% sure thing. Even a profitable system, say with a 65% profit-to-loss ratio, still, has 35% losing trades. Therefore, the art of profitability is in the management and execution of the trade.
Risk Control
In the end, successful trading is all about risk control. Try to get your trade in the correct direction right out of the gate. Evaluate your trading system, make adjustments, and try again. Often, it is on the second or third attempt that your trade will move in the right direction. This practice requires patience and discipline to achieve success.
The Bottom Line
Trading is nuanced and requires as much art as science to execute successfully, which means that there is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade. Warren Buffet said that there are two rules in trading: Rule 1: Never lose money. Rule 2: Remember Rule 1.1 Stick a note on your computer that will remind you to take small losses often and quickly rather than wait for the big losses.
Be Patient with US30It's Earnings Season so we'll likely see a lot of volatility. We are also in a significant area of interest in the market, recession concerns are looming but I'm not convinced that the market is fully committed to this downward trend. Not yet.
We've had multiple tests at the top of the range (Target 3), and the market seems to be moving lower. Targets 1 & 2 were previously areas of support we've broken out of that still need to be retested as resistance levels. These levels also have the potential to act as confluence with the 200 & 50 MAs if time and price sync up.
Again, If we are truly going to see an extended downturn here then I believe these areas will be tested first. I'm taking a little bit of risk, buying toward the bottom of the most recent swing low. I imagine we may get some wicks in this area if the market continues to sell off.
If the market moves up and tests targets 1 & 2 before giving us an entry then I am canceling this buy position. In that scenario, I imagine the market will continue lower to more significant areas of support.
Levels of Development LLC is providing this material for this site and any other related sources (including newsletters, blog post, videos, social media and other communications) for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and may not represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, we may use examples that are different or the opposite of transactions we have conducted or positions we hold.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stock or options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after thorough research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and the engagement of professional assistance to the extend you believe necessary.
What's Risk and Reward ratio vs Profit factorWhat is Risk-Reward Ratio?
The risk-reward ratio is a ratio used in investing that compares the potential profit or gain of an investment to the potential loss or risk that it poses. This ratio is often used to determine whether an investment is worth pursuing or not, and can be a helpful tool in managing risk.
The risk-reward ratio is typically expressed as a ratio of potential profit to potential loss, with a higher ratio indicating a potentially more favorable investment opportunity. For example, if an investment has a potential reward of $10,000 and a potential risk of $5,000, the risk-reward ratio would be 2:1.
Examples of risk-reward ratios can be found in many different types of investments, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and options. For example, a stock that has a potential upside of $20 per share and a potential downside of $10 per share would have a risk-reward ratio of 2:1. Similarly, a bond that offers a potential yield of 6% and carries a potential risk of default of 3% would have a risk-reward ratio of 2:1.
In general, a higher risk-reward ratio indicates a potentially more attractive investment opportunity, as the potential gains are greater than the potential losses. However, it is important to remember that higher potential gains also often come with higher levels of risk, and investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
What is profit factor?
The profit factor is a metric used in trading that measures the relationship between the profits generated by winning trades and the losses incurred by losing trades. It is calculated by dividing the gross profit of winning trades by the gross loss of losing trades.
A profit factor of greater than 1 indicates that the trading strategy is profitable, while a profit factor of less than 1 indicates that the trading strategy is not profitable. A profit factor of exactly 1 means that the trading strategy has breakeven results.
Some traders consider a profit factor of 2 or greater to be a good measure of a profitable trading strategy, as it indicates that the strategy generates twice as much profit as it incurs in losses.
However, it's important to note that the profit factor is just one metric and should not be used in isolation to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. Other important metrics include the win rate, average profit per trade, and maximum drawdown.
In summary, the profit factor is a key metric used in trading to evaluate the profitability of a trading strategy, and it can help traders to assess the risk and reward potential of their trades.
Example:
Example 1 - Risk-Reward Ratio:
Let's say you're considering buying a stock at $50 per share, and you believe it has the potential to rise to $70 per share. However, you also recognize that there is a risk that the stock could fall to $40 per share.
In this scenario, the potential reward is $20 per share ($70 - $50), while the potential risk is $10 per share ($50 - $40). This gives us a risk-reward ratio of 2:1, which means that the potential reward is twice as high as the potential risk.
Example 2 - Profit Factor:
Let's say you have a trading strategy that involves making 10 trades over a period of time. Of those 10 trades, 6 are winning trades and 4 are losing trades. The gross profit generated by the winning trades is $6,000, while the gross loss incurred by the losing trades is $3,000.
To calculate the profit factor, we divide the gross profit by the gross loss, which gives us a profit factor of 2. This means that for every dollar you lose on losing trades, you earn $2 on winning trades.
By looking at both the risk-reward ratio and profit factor, you can evaluate the potential risk and reward of a trading opportunity and the profitability of a trading strategy. It's important to keep in mind that there are other factors to consider when making trading decisions, such as market conditions, technical analysis, and risk management strategies.
How to Be a Successful Beginner TraderWhen it comes to trading, many people think that it is an easy way to make quick money. However, the reality is that it takes time, effort, and patience to be a successful trader. In this blog post, we will discuss some of the key things that beginners need to do in order to be successful.
Set realistic goals
Setting realistic goals is important for any beginner trader. Without a plan and actionable steps, it can be easy to get discouraged or become overwhelmed. Trying to make too much money too quickly can also lead to losses.
It's important to start small and work your way up. Don't try to go for the big win right away. Set a goal that is achievable and focus on that. Do not strive for perfection. Remember that trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme and you need to be patient in order to be successful.
Keep things simple and defined
It's important to keep your trading strategy simple and defined. Too many indicators and too many rules can make your strategy too complicated and difficult to follow. Backtesting your strategy on historical data can help you optimize it, but don't over-optimize or you'll risk ruining your strategy. Paper trading is a good way to test your strategy before using real money.
When you're just starting out as a trader, it's tempting to try to find the perfect system. You might think that if you just use the right combination of indicators, you'll be able to beat the market. Unfortunately, it's not that easy.
There are two problems with trying to find the perfect system. First, the market is constantly changing and what worked yesterday might not work today. Second, even if you do find a system that works, there's a danger of over-optimizing it.
Over-optimization is when you keep tweaking your system, trying to get ever-better results. The problem is that when you do this, you're usually just fitting your system to past data. That means it will probably work well in the short term but not in the long term.
A better approach is to keep things simple and defined. That way, you're less likely to over-optimize and more likely to be able to adapt as the market changes.
One way to keep things simple is to use just a few indicators. It's often better to use fewer indicators that give clear signals than lots of indicators that give conflicting signals. You should also have well-defined rules for entry and exit points so that you know exactly when to buy and sell.
Backtesting can help you optimize your strategy by seeing how it would have performed in the past. However, it's important not to over-optimize or you'll end up with a system that only works on paper but not in real life. Once you've got a system that looks promising, paper trade it for a while before using real money.
Get a mentor
A mentor can play an integral role in your success as a beginner trader. A good mentor will provide guidance and support, help you learn from their own experiences, hold you accountable to your goals, and keep you motivated throughout your journey.
Finding a mentor can be tricky, but there are a few avenues you can explore. First, see if any of your friends or family members trade. If they do, ask if they would be willing to mentor you. If not, there are plenty of online resources available, like forums and chat rooms dedicated to trading. LinkedIn is also a great place to look for potential mentors.
Once you've found a potential mentor, set up a meeting to get to know them better and see if they're a good fit for you. Be sure to come prepared with questions about their experiences trading and what they think makes someone successful. Also, be sure to let them know what your goals are and what you're hoping to get out of the mentorship relationship.
If everything goes well, then congratulations! You've just taken an important step towards becoming a successful trader.
Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme
Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. You will not become a millionaire overnight. You will have to be patient and handle a few losses along the way. Trading is a long-term game.
The key to success in trading is to set realistic goals and take them one step at a time. Trying to make too much money too quickly can lead to losses. Focus on achievable goals, and don't strive for perfection. Remember that trading is a long-term game and you need to be patient to be successful.
Another important key to success is to keep everything simple and defined. This has to do with your analysis, trading strategy, and trading plan. Over-optimizing your strategy can lead to ruined results. Backtesting can help you optimize your strategy, but don't over-do it. Paper trading is a good way to test your strategy before using real money.
In order to be successful, it is also important to find a mentor who can provide guidance, support, and advice based on their own experiences. A mentor can help you learn from their mistakes so that you don't have to make them yourself. You can find potential mentors through friends and family, online resources. When meeting with a potential mentor, come prepared with questions and let them know your goals.
Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme - it takes time and patience to be successful. By following these tips, you'll be on your way to becoming a successful trader.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Is it your strategy or you???What is your strategy? If asked, could you explain it to one of your friends or family members? More importantly, does it make sense? Is it clear?
Teaching or Sharing your thoughts & methods leads to a deeper understanding of the content. If nothing else, speak aloud and hear your reasoning out of your own mouth before taking a trade.
My current strategy is to take a defined structure from Swing High to Swing Low or Swing Low to Swing High and use it as the basis for my analysis. Naturally, the structure will indicate a trend, and I would need to decide if that trend is in alignment with or contrary to the broader market. Either is fine, but this distinction is essential when assessing targets and risk.
I have to constantly remind myself that I don't know what the market will do. Since I don't know what the market will do, it follows that I should be open to changing my mind and also safeguarding against my ignorance. With this being said and firmly in mind, there are three levels that I like to pay attention to. They are:
Breakouts of previously established key levels.
The .618 Retracement & 1.618 Extension (current and previous structures)
Between the .786 & .886
Simple enough. I'm sure that your strategy for entry can be explained in layman's terms as well. The issue typically doesn't lie in the analysis it lies in the trader's ability to follow said analysis and follow it consistently.
Does this sound relatable?
You spend hours or maybe even days conducting your analysis, waiting for the market to make its move and give you some indication of what might happen in the near future. As time passes, things seem to become more clear, and you see your opportunity coming. Sure there are a few unexpected movements that happen along the way but that's just how markets move. Price approaches your entry but not yet. Hell, it may not actually reach the level at which you established as a good entry. So you enter early and let the candles fall where they may. If you have fixed stops, now your levels are thrown off. If you don't, then any concept of risk that you had in your mind has been altered and you now bear the task of making mental adjustments to compensate for a completely different trade. Because that's exactly what it is, a completely different trade, with new numbers, figures, distances, R&R ratios, and new implications of risk. The market moves in your favor, possibly even nearing your predetermined target. If it's a fixed number of pips, then that number has changed. If it was a fixed target then your projected profits have changed. This may not seem like a big deal but for beginning traders who are establishing their system, this means everything. Every decision you make against yourself has future implications on your equity curve, but also on your confidence and understanding of what you are doing in the market. In order to be consistent and profitable in the market we must learn to trade in a consistent manner with a strategy that will prove to be profitable over time. The market continues to move but it has taken a sudden turn against you, whatever profits you had are quickly erased and price action now edges toward your stop loss. You've been stopped out only to learn that if you had been patient at entry and kept your original strategy in place, you wouldn't have been stopped out, and price action would have ultimately gone in your favor reaching your target.
The point of all this is to illustrate that we unconsciously make changes to our strategies as we are deploying them. These changes have a compounding effect on the outcome of our trades. Even if you are made a winner by these changes you've made, you will have reinforced a bad habit that will undoubtedly lead to many losses in the future. There is power in understanding the unique set of tendencies and preferences that make you the type of trader you are. If you continue to ignore this, you will rightfully take your place amongst the other 90% of failing traders. When you start to pay attention to your own uniqueness and figure out what concepts, ideas, strategies, tools, and methods resonate with you, then you will be on your way to developing a system that you can trade consistently.
Losing is a part of the game. You may as well lose in a manner that produces feedback that can be learned from. Are you losing because your strategy needs adjusting or are you losing because your psychology needs adjusting?
It should be stated that any given trade, from start to finish, can be, and typically is, more nuanced than what I've just described. Its simplicity should not overshadow its intent. The chart attached to this post shows that there are multiple opportunities for entry for mine and, quite possibly, your strategy. All a trader needs to do is be patient and allow the market to tell you what it is doing. Along with entries are maintenance and exits. Targets are just as important as entries if not more so. Your unique perspective as a trader will heavily impact the decisions you make in all three phases of trading.
Levels of Development LLC is providing this material for this site and any other related sources (including newsletters, blog post, videos, social media and other communications) for educational purposes only. We are not providing legal, accounting, or financial advisory services, and this is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, options, or other financial instruments or investments. Examples that address specific assets, stocks, options or other financial instrument transactions are for illustrative purposes only and may not represent specific trades or transactions that we have conducted. In fact, we may use examples that are different or the opposite of transactions we have conducted or positions we hold.
All investing and trading in the securities market involves risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stock or options or other financial instruments, is a personal decision that should only be made after thorough research, including a personal risk and financial assessment, and the engagement of professional assistance to the extend you believe necessary.
Your Uniqueness in the MarketTake a look at this chart, or any chart of your choosing, and tell me what you see! Not just the technical terms and the direction of the market but explain what you are seeing, thinking and feeling as you read the market data from start to finish.
If you got the responses from twenty different people, you'd receive twenty different perspectives with twenty different interpretations. Some of them overlapping in their theories and explanations while others violently contradict and oppose each other. The beautiful thing about trading is that we all at one time or another are correct. "Correct" being that their was a legitimate opportunity to place a trade and make money based on your unique perspective of the information.
The difficult thing in trading is really understanding what we see and perceive in all of the market data. I want to emphasize... The difficult thing about trading is in truly understanding how we see and interpret market data in our own unique way. Some people see long, while others see short, and depending upon the system; on any particular trade, on any particular day, both sets of people are correct.
All systems have winners and losers, its an unavoidable fact. The acceptance of this fact will help you understand that you don't necessarily need to go searching for someone else's way of trading, you only to need gain a thorough understanding of how you view things. What resonates with you and your uniqueness? Maybe its moving averages and RSI, maybe its price action and support and resistance, or maybe its simply the day of the week at a specific time. When you start to unpack your way of making sense of the market you can find your unique way of operating in it.
If success in the market was primarily based on technical skills, and the use of tools, indicators, and spreadsheets. There would be a lot more profitable traders. Trading attracts some of the most brilliant minds, intellectual beasts, and academic rockstars, and yet over 90% of traders fail and are unsuccessful. You yourself, as you read this may realize you are a brilliant person yet you struggle to stay consistent with your trading. The answer to your problem is not solely in the technical skill, its likely hiding in the unexamined parts of your personality.
If you know this, then you also know that awareness and application are two totally different things. You can be aware that you have a personal problem with following a trading methodology but feel totally powerless in correcting it. My question to you would then be, how much time have you spent experiencing your own unique style of trading? Stop fighting your nature, and embrace your expression.
There are market fundamentals and market basics that every trader needs to understand.
Price Action
Structure
Trend
Risk
Beyond this your style of trading is likely a combination of many different skills that you've accumulated from various sources. The important thing for each trader is to understand which skills resonate most with them. Which skills fit your unique market perspective. Which skills can you use to build a system of trading that allows you to account for the mixture of wins and losses, while keeping you in an optimal mental space, so that you may execute on your level of understanding.
I think the challenge for every trader, is to take the time to identify a purpose in their trading. To understand why it is that you feel drawn to embark on such a challenging task. Those traders who stick with it, and generate some answers to these questions will have taken huge strides in understanding how the market serves as mirror. Reflecting back at you, the potential for you to fulfill your desires coupled with everything that you need to work on, and improve upon, on a very personal level.
If you don't come from a trading and investing background, either from family ties or academia, then all of this becomes even more important. Self- taught traders need to understand their uniqueness in the market. You are the most important part of your trading system. It would be crazy not to give yourself the time and attention you deserve.
Happy Trading!