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GBPNOK 1H 120pip BUY for 24-26 March 2021Hello new trader here working on my TA pls comment and leave feedback on how I can improve. Looks like GBPNOK could be buying today or tomorrow. I don't usually trade 1H so we'll see how it goes, this is simply a trade idea not a signal but the highlighted buy zone would be the ideal place to get in on this move. If you get in nice and early you could be looking at 120pips if it hits the upper accumulation trend channel which is possible as we have a bullish bias on the short + long term. Stochastic and macd indicators are both low, SOTW ( shark out the water) is the name I give it when stoch breaks down through to 20 or 80 dashed lines, it indicates a strong buy is overdue, especially on an uptrend. Macd is usually better suited for longer time frames but we're gonna trust it here as the hidden bullish divergence seems legit - same story with stochastic. Price broke the uptrend orange line and is now below it, hoping to see a retest and break in this buy so I would set TP on the line and break even when this is hit. 30 - 40 pip stop loss should be sufficient to dodge any stop hunts. As always ensure you wait for confirmation before entering because fakeouts are common on gbp/xxx Hopefully this is a winner Vince / Vmoney
Long
by Vmoney10
2
MACD From ScratchHi, traders! Today we gonna start the tutorial “Trading from scratch”. These short but very useful articles are intended for beginners who’s just started their way in trading. We hope you’ll enjoy. Today’s article will give the full understanding of one the most popular, easy and very useful indicator - MAC. Moreover, we’ll show you how to apply it efficiently. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is a trend indicator that shows the trend and its momentum. It consists of two lines: MACD line and signal line. Both of them are EMA with different periods. We got MACD line subtracting from EMA with less period (fast) EMA with longer period (slow). The signal line is MACD line smoothed by the very short EMA. How to trade with MACD? Divergence The first very powerful signal is divergence. Divergence means the difference between slope of the trend line on chart and indicator. To learn about it properly you can read our Divergences Cheat Sheet . Catching divergences is a good signal to buy or sell. As you can see on the screen, the first time we got bearish regular divergence. Thus, we are going to short. Then we can see bullish hidden divergence and it’s a good chance to execute a long position. NOTE We can draw divergence lines both on MACD line and histogram.
Education
by Skyrexio
2
GBPCHF 4H 340pip SELL. For week starting 29.3.21Wagwarn my slimes please leave feedback to help me improve and trade safe. We're looking at GBPCHF here which is very very overbought so we're looking at a nice sell. We may be abit late to this move but market open will delay if a bit for sure with some volatility and spread AIDS. Price has been ranging since the 11th March and we've seen that resistance tested 6 times since then telling us it's super strong so we can definitely expect price to reject this time around. I'll be looking to short this right after the next candle close after market open (as long as the spreads have reduced). We can see hidden bearish divergence which is much stronger on the stochastic than it is on the actual price chart - let's remember divergence is binary so it's happening or it isn't. Our stochastic indicator is super high at 92.5 (at it's peak) which is the highest it's been in a long while so we can definitely expect a big sell move on it's way. TDI is supporting this move nicely, The red line has recently crossed over the green line right at the top of the channel just under the top band, showing that the bulls have taken over and that price is currently overbought. The red line broke out above the Bollinger bands (shark out of the water) which is another indication price is massively overbought meaning a sell is coming. Even further, the TDI's Bollinger bands are diverging, showing that volatility is increasing- hopefully this is the end of the ranging period. I would set my TPs as so: TP1: 1.287 60pips TP2: 1.278 150pips TP3 (runner): 1.2587 340pips If you ask me this move is going to happen on monday or tuesday so keep a careful eye on this pair as these confluences are interesting. Have a good week Vince / Vmoney
Short
by Vmoney10
EURNOK 4H 375pip SELL - For week starting 29.3.2021What's up please comment what I can do better. I have spotted a smaller head and shoulders pattern (0vert last 8 days) forming on the a pull back of the EURNOK downtrend which began this time last year. The 1D trend line (orange) was recently broken up and then back down, the most recent wick up failed on the 25th and lost momentum suggesting a considerable number of swing buyers have left the market, allowing the selling pressure to increase. The 100ma is in our favour as well as the TDI indicator which is turning bearish overall. We're looking for solid confirmation of the neckline and the 100ma being broken (especially whichever comes last) before we enter this as price could simply be ranging irregularly and catch us out. Be careful entering this on Monday as there's more fakeouts at market open. If you get in this trade around the entry shown on my screen, I would set: TP1: 50pip TP2: 90pip at fib level 1.000 meeting the yearly low and TP3 at 375pip @ fib level 1.618. We're likely going to see a rejection of fib level 1.000 so make sure you break even at tp1. SL at 40-60pip. If we hit TP2 definitely keep a runner as we're on a downtrend and want to see monthly and yearly lows broken. Be careful my slimes Vince / Vmoney
Long
by Vmoney10
AUDUSD 1D 375pip BUY!!! For week starting 29th March 2021Hello I'm new so please suggest any improvements / indicators I could include in my analysis to improve it. Quite a simple one really, plenty of hidden bullish divergence and price is consolidating / ranging in a 400 pip range, we're hoping to catch this buy back up to the top again but if it doesn't go all the way it will at least reach TP1 so make sure you get your stop loss at break even. Macd and stochastic both correlating nicely which is a good sign as always and price is at a double bottom on a support resistance so we can definitely expect a buy as we haven't been this low in a while. Have a good weekend everyone Vince / Vmoney
Long
by Vmoney10
EURNZD 1D 500pip BUY - for week starting 29.3.21Hey guys hope you're doing well reading this. Fib drawn between yearly high and lows - recent spike brought us up by roughly 400pips, we're currently seeing exhausted / rejection candles forming an arch shape, like an upside down "U" which is much clearer on the 4H chart. This is a less common trend reversal pattern, but we can put some faith in it as price is exhausted / rejecting of the 0.618 fibonacci level which is a good sign. This fibonacci level also back tests nicely to show a common area of resistance We can see great divergence on the stochastic and macd indicators suggesting there's an incoming sell move. Price is also at a monthly high so psychologically speaking selling pressure should increase. We'll have to wait this out for confirmation as the Euro has been getting stronger towards the end of this week. For confirmation we can wait until a strong candle crosses and closes below the orange trend line which has only recently been broken for this first time. As always any advice is appreciated Vince / Vmoney
Long
by Vmoney10
BTCUSD 4H to 75K?. 600-2,500pip BUY Hello beginner trader here looking to polish up my TA skills early on. Got quite a lot to talk about here so strap in.- also please leave feedback on how I can improve this, also does anyone know any good indicators I could use for this sort of TA? thanks. Basically the idea is a buy. The orange line represents the '2021 trend line' because it has been hit perfectly thrice since 2021. The fibonacci has been drawn from the current all time high to the first touch of the 2021 trend line (21st Jan). The second trend line hit on the 1st March validates our fibonacci drawing as it also hit fib level 0.500 perfectly as well as previous rejections and retests of other fib levels. The trend line was recently hit on the 23rd March (accurate hit on fib level 0.786) however price doesn't seem to have bounced off it as strongly as it has done in the past suggesting that the bullish flag will continue until the trend line is retested again. If this happens we can expect a strong breakout move, buy zone 1 indicates the ideal entry if this move happens. If we enter here we would set our SL just below fib level .786 and hope for the best. Suggested TP levels: 60k, 65K and 76K - it could be wise to take profit just below these levels as they're psychological levels which can see rejection due to sell orders placed there. It is very possible that price will not retest the 2021 trend line and break the resistance zone as we have recently seen a double bottom in the flag. If resistance is broken, we can enter a buy here with the same TP levels but breaking even earlier on would be wise as price moves unpredictably when creating all time highs. Buy zone 2 is the ideal place to enter a buy if this is the case. If we buy here we could put our SL just below fib level 1.000 with the same take profit levels as the first trade idea. Of course this is all hypothetical and I might have just wasted 30 minutes of my day. Either way we're going to see a breakout move so be ready. If it breaks out downward, expect a retest of the 2021 trend line and the fib levels could be used as TP's. I'm genuinely impressed if you got this far and you're still reading this because I'm just waffling at this point so here's some text art of Obama: ░░█▀░░░░░░░░░░░▀▀███████░░░░ ░█▌░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░███████▌░░ ░█░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░████████░░ ▐▌░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░▀██████▌░░ ░▌▄███▌░░░░▀████▄░░░░▀████▌░░ ▐▀▀▄█▄░▌░░░▄██▄▄▄▀░░░░████▄▄░ ▐░▀░░═▐░░░░░░══░░▀░░░░▐▀░▄▀▌▌ ▐░░░░░▌░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░▀░▀░░▌▌ ▐░░░▄▀░░░▀░▌░░░░░░░░░░░░▌█░▌▌ ░▌░░▀▀▄▄▀▀▄▌▌░░░░░░░░░░▐░▀▐▐░ ░▌░░▌░▄▄▄▄░░░▌░░░░░░░░▐░░▀▐░░ ░█░▐▄██████▄░▐░░░░░░░░█▀▄▄▀░░ ░▐░▌▌░░░░░░▀▀▄▐░░░░░░█▌░░░░░░ ░░█░░▄▀▀▀▀▄░▄═╝▄░░░▄▀░▌░░░░░░ ░░░▌▐░░░░░░▌░▀▀░░▄▀░░▐░░░░░░░ ░░░▀▄░░░░░░░░░▄▀▀░░░░█░░░░░░░ ░░░▄█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀░░░░░░░▌▌░░░░░░ ░░▄▀▌▀▌░░░░░░░░░░░░░▄▀▀▄░░░░░ ▄▀░░▌░▀▄░░░░░░░░░░▄▀░░▌░▀▄░░░ ░░░░▌█▄▄▀▄░░░░░░▄▀░░░░▌░░░▌▄▄ ░░░▄▐██████▄▄░▄▀░░▄▄▄▄▌░░░░▄░ :) Vince / Vmoney
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Vmoney10
EURJPY 4H 100pip BUY - Week starting: 23.3.2021Hello. I'm a new trader working on my TA, any pointers or constructive criticism to help me improve are appreciated ! I believe we are seeing the formation of a trend reversal pattern specifically a bearish triple top, where price moves upward in a bull trend, ranges- creating three equal highs, and then forms a down trend. As can be seen on the graph price has formed 2 highs whilst consolidating within a range of 126pips. My trade idea is to trade the 3rd bullish leg which will bring price up to the 3rd high point of the trend reversal pattern. If price bounces off the marked support level, we can hope enter a buy position if the candlestick closes as bullish. This seems likely as rejection wicks can already be observed. Hidden bullish divergence suggests that price is waiting to buy, this is shown on the macd and stochastic indicators. The stochastic indicator recently crossed below the 20.00 dashed line (I call this a 'shark out of the water' event), showing that price is waiting to buy, we should wait for confirmation on the stochastic before entering a position. I believe entering with a sensible amount of confirmation could result in a 75pip - 100pip trade if TP is hit. If I enter this trade I will draw a fib and take partial profits at each key level. This is a trade idea so please do not trade based off my analysis alone Vince / Vmoney
Long
by Vmoney10
1
USDCHF BUY - IS SIMPLICITY ALL YOU NEED?A lot of room for error as this idea is being published way before the expected move is going to take place. Looks like a bullish flag / rectangle which means on the third low it should shoot up, hopefully all the way to the weekly trend line where I can then ride a sell down. This will probably never happen- but wishful thinking is the key to success. So is simplicity all you need? We'll find out in a week or two or three yolo, Vince.
Long
by Vmoney10
2
A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of. Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moving averages are a totally customizable indicator, which means you can freely choose whatever time frame they want when calculating an average. The most common time periods used in moving averages are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The shorter the time span used to create the average, the more sensitive it will be to price changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive the average will be. @TradingView has many of these tools to use under the list of indicators. A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale. Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA. Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot. Another simple strategy - Investopedia This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps. 🍒Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart. 🍒Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA. 🍒For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA. 🍒Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price. 🍒An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable. 🍒Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short. I hope this helps - Please feel free to add more info below. Any suggestions & comments to help new traders, always appreciated. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
97
BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Double Bottom, I'm BullishHello and welcome to another BITFINEX:BTCUSD analysis! Like most people, I thought we were heading for a dip with a head and shoulders pattern this weekend (in purple). However, that has been invalidated as the price broke above the right shoulder last night. Does this mean we now have a double bottom (in orange)? The confirmation for that would come at the resistance of the left side of the W at ~$51,650 (it might even get there before I post this analysis :D ). The volume is fairly low, but it is the weekend, so I'm not sure if we can take that into account (this is my first analysis on the weekend). Interestingly, we can see that when the H&S pattern was invalidated was also when the MACD lines crossed into the positive territory. This is a confirmation of the uptrend. However, there isn't a massive separation between the lines, which means that price will stay more or less stable. On the other hand, if you look at the last big bull rally (18-19 Feb) where we had 5 green candles in sequence, we can see that the lines weren't that separate either. But, we are already at 5 green candles in sequence, and we haven't had a sequence of more than 5 positive candles since January. Why look into the sequence of red and green candles? Because BTC is very volatile, so it's rare that it will go only up or only down for a long time. So, in conclusion, the MACD has 2 signs of going positive, but the candlestick have a sign of going negative. The RSI is at 60%, which means that there is a bit of resistance for the price to go much higher. Put it in another way, it hasn't reached 70% (which is when the market thinks it's overpriced). This means that the market thinks it's a little above its value, but not that much - not enough to signal that it is overpriced (usually a great time to sell because it will likely fall). So, from and RSI perspective, it looks like the price is finding its new value between ~48k and ~52k, with some room for reaching the previous ATH of ~57k. Conclusion/TLDR: Let's put everything together now: * We have 4 indications that the price will go up * We have 1 indicators that the price will go down Therefore, my position is bullish. I think it will go up to at least ~52k in the next ~12 hours. Disclaimer: this is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is very risky. Please only invest what you can afford to lose.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mairabay
1
BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Down, Then UpHello folks, looks like the test I was expecting was not as low as I thought. BITFINEX:BTCUSD tested the 46k-47k support and then moved up to test the 50k-52k resistance, which seems to be where we are now. Let's see what can happen. Even though the MACD is in the positive and the RSI is saying that we are still not overpriced (still not above 70%), the volume is pretty low. So we have 2 indicators saying it will go up and one saying it will go down. Interestingly, the shorter-term charts (1h, 30m) have all started to show a movement downwards. Based on that, I think we are in for one more test of the ~48k level (in the next 4-8 hours) before moving up again (tomorrow).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mairabay
BTC/USD - One More BottomAnd a bearish weekend it was! Are we going to retest the bottom or keep moving up? I think there is one more test for BITFINEX:BTCUSD before climbing. The MACD is telling me that we are going up, with the green bars and the wider separation within the lines. The RSI last closed at ~60%, which tells me that there is still more room to grow. However, looking at the volume, it isn't very high. This means people aren't buying nor selling because either they think the price is ok or they are waiting to see what happens. If it does go up, it will be a slow climb ("buy on Monday sell on Friday" kind of week?) Looking at the shorter-term charts, they are all signalling overpriced on the RSI (line well above or close to 70%). That tells me that in the short-term (next 4-8 hours) it will still go down. I think it was Lord Rothschild who said "sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling". Following this philosophy and looking at the RSI alone, now would be a good time to sell because it is overpriced. Also, don't forget that, despite the MACD being in the green, the lines are still in negative territory. I expect one more test of the 43k level before we move up again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by mairabay
4
BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Too Many Fence-SittersWas Monday the final dip before 60k? Or are we going further down? Checkout my BITFINEX:BTCUSD analysis. Indicators: The MACD lines have crossed, so it is a strong indication of an uptrend. It also looks like they are getting ready to spread apart. On the other hand, we are still in negative/bear territory, so the gains might be small and it might go down again. The RSI is right in the middle, so this tells me that the price is consolidating at around 48k-52k. Even if the price goes up or down, (based on previous negative MACD periods) I don't think the fall will be significant. That being said, the volume is quite small, which tells me that most people are still waiting to see what happens. Until something changes (crypto-related news, or a new tweet from Mr. Musk perhaps) I believe there will be a lot of fence-sitters for a while. Again, this is another indication of a sideways market. Patterns: Some people have mentioned inverted head and shoulders, but I decided to try something different today. I'm still getting the hang of the drawing tools here, so I put all the lines of resistance and support myself (blue lines). Funnily, it does look a lot like Fibbonacci. Nature is beautiful. So (considering the indicators) I see 3 possibilities here: 1) slow climb up, testing all the tops (and possibly retesting previous bottoms) 2) dip to ~44k and then to ~37k based on a whale or news item 3) skyrocket to the highest top, again based on a whale or Musky tweet A friend of mine used to say "the market goes up on stairs and goes down on elevators". If we are going to follow the indicators (I don't have a crystal ball to tell you tomorrow's news or what Musk will tweet) I would say that it will likely touch ~55k today, going down to ~49k, then testing the next tops and bottoms and so on (pink lines). Conclusion: I maintain my position from yesterday: sideways market, with possible short-term dip (4-12h) but long-term rise (2-3 days). For swing trading, you can enter now and put a stop at the level you are most comfortable losing, or wait for a more clear indication of a rise. Disclaimer: None of this is financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly risk and you should only invest what you are comfortable losing.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mairabay
2