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Bitcoin: BTCUSD Reality BitesBitcoin Update Reality Bites
This is the Coinbase chart of Bitcoin and right now probably the most reliable, but you might prefer Bitfinex or Bitstamp
(next uploads for those 2). This chart shows the massive failure of the head and shoulders set-up with a tiny pin just
violating the upper parallel before catastrophic failure - this chart was good and true - no false break, just a small pin of
deadly intent from the high. This is my bad, certainly not the chart's. Not only was the call over-cocky/confident but it had
no plan B attached. That is unforgiveable, a sackable offense. Yes, it's so easy to say now, but that failure was screaming get
short on the break-down and now look at what that failure has done to Bitcoin since. Abject apologies. China's continued
actions to curb Bitcoin trading is putting a dampener on liquidity - who would challenge that government unless a
whale with an account a long way from China? Pretty much as soon as it went 'mainstream' it's been fighting off mainstream
realities ever since. Reality bites. Hard.
That massive pin bar of selling intent from under 12472 tells us how strong the downward pressure remains here. Bitcoin is
unloved right now, but needs this flush out, sadly, of all those Jonny-come-latelys who arrived at the party way too late in
the evening. Markets are cruel. Reality can be too. We have to follow the chart and not our hearts. You got the picture.
In nearer term Bitcoin is trapped within the larger set of parallels shown on chart and trying to rally now from the long
term dynamic that, on Coinbase chart only, has underpinned all declines so far at 9926 where longer and shorter term dynamics intersected last night...Bitcoin is not dead and
buried whilst it can hold up here at 9930...and below here is the parallel at 9726 now which should halt the decline if the
longer term dynamic fails ...but this lower parallel must hold up on all retests from here. failure to do so would be
catastrophic for the bull case at any point, tipping Bitcoin further into the mire an signalling that test of 8300 that so
many are willing Bitcoin to see before looking to buy.
It's a speccy buy down here with a stop below the low at 99900 on Coinbase feed back to 10700 - but will need to break
above here and hold to reach next upside target at 11330-11433. A move up/down though resistance/support line is likely to lead to a test of the next, though dynamics almost always weigh heavier than fixed lines of support/resistance.
It's already rallied 500 oints as this is written and is now testing the underrside of resistance and likley to come off
again...needs to break above 10730 here to be able to push on higher to next line in sand, as per chart.
For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80%
of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or
the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS
failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin -
that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he
wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We
need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants
truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade
opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has
left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then
come back to retest the little dynamic
